Will 2009/2010 Be An Historic Winter?

[AderynCoch]

I'm almost sure Jan 2010 has been a lot colder in Germany, Belgium etc than 2009. In fact this winter so far has been a lot more severe for northern Europe than winter 2008/09.

Of course it has, my point was that last January also produced significantly cold temperatures across much of Europe - just that we largely missed out.

Unlike the UK, I'm sure much of western Europe saw lower minima in January 2009 than in January 2010: this winter has been colder there because the cold itself has been more prolonged.

[Weather-history]

Based on latest figures, if the CET for the last 12 days of February were 10C, this winter would be the coldest since 1995-96 with a CET of 3.4

If 8C ----> 3.1C

7C ----> 3.0C

6C ----> 2.9C

5C ----> 2.7C

4C ----> 2.6C

3C ----> 2.5C

2.5C --> 2.4C

2.0C --> 2.3C

There are two group of people I would be interested in their views, the Hale Winter and the even larger teapot Theorists. How do the Hale Winter theorists explain that this winter falls out of the 22/23 year cycle but the even larger teapot theorists have got real problems because they have dismissed such winters.

[kold weather]

Whilst the Hale people could I uppose say it was a little late, the even larger teapot people have some big problems with certqain aspects of thier theory, namely the fact that we can no longer go say colder then the winter of 95-96.

[Nick L]

Whilst the Hale people could I uppose say it was a little late, the modern winter people have some big problems with certqain aspects of thier theory, namely the fact that we can no longer go say colder then the winter of 95-96.

They will find a way to move the goalposts, just watch!

[Gowon]

I'll repeat what i said in the climate discussion thread the other day, this is truly an amazing winter for us and Europe despite overwhelming AGW.

[AderynCoch]

I was thinking about the Hale winter theory myself. Before 1894/5 it becomes iffy, as neither 22 years prior (1872/73 = 4.1C) nor 23 years prior (1871/72 = 5.2C) fit the pattern. Break the rule slughtly and go back 24 years to 1870/71 and you get a very cold December & January (0.6C & 0.5C) but a very mild February (6.1C).

Before 1870/71, neither 1847/78 (4.1C) nor 1848/49 (5.1C) fit the bill, but 1846/47 does (1.7C) - another 24 years. Try another 22 or 23 years prior and you come up short again (1823/24 = 4.6C, 1824/25 = 4.3C)) - but 24 years delivers the goods once more (1822/23 = 1.5C).

Both 1798/99 (2.0C) and 1799/00 (2.1C) are cold enough to qualify as Hale winters, so that's either a 23 or 24 year gap. 1775/76 (23 or 24 years) came in at 2.2C (though despite the super-cold January, December and February were average). I can't see anything before that though.

A pattern? Meh. I suppose if you can broaden the rules (22, 23 or 24 years) it's quite easy to notice cycles.

If 2009/10 winter is a Hale winter, then it would have to be a 24 year jump from 1985/86. I've heard claims that last winter was indeed a classic Hale setup, but surely if that was the case it should have been colder?

Edited February 17, 2010 by AderynCoch

[Optimus Prime]

I'll repeat what i said in the climate discussion thread the other day, this is truly an amazing winter for us and Europe despite overwhelming AGW.

Yeah despite a truly amazing winter for Europe the warmest January ever globally.

[Weather-history]

the even larger teapot people have some big problems with certqain aspects of thier theory, namely the fact that we can no longer go say colder then the winter of 95-96.

If you tie in this winter with last winter, then there are real problems because last winter was described as the mildest Hale winter by the theorists even a "one-off". Whats their excuse for this winter then?

There are far too many random elements when it comes to the weather and these random elements can tilt it one way or the other even if there is a trend in one direction, thats why I never bought the rigidity and 2-dimensional thinking of the even larger teapot theory. 100 to 1 horses still can win the Grand National. The odds are still there no matter how small.

Edited February 18, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Gowon]

Yeah despite a truly amazing winter for Europe the warmest January ever globally.

Well, there you go, something is not adding up. Anyway, wasn't most of that heat recorded due to the El nino?

[Nick L]

Yeah despite a truly amazing winter for Europe the warmest January ever globally.

Wow, some places must have had some serious heat to cancel out and exceed some of the cold temps places have experienced.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It was the warmest January in the lower troposphere, and maybe according to the NASA/GISS dataset (I'm not sure of the latter though). According to NCDC/NOAA it was globally the 4th warmest. The greatest anomalies were found over the Southern Hemisphere landmasses, while there were only isolated pockets of cold dotted around here and there other than the unusual cold pool covering almost the entirety of Eurasia.

Edit: Iceberg came up with the stats elsewhere:

Just a quick recap for Jan.

RSS and UAH warmest on record globally.

GISS joint 2nd warmest on record globally.

NCDC 4th warmest on record globally.

HADCRU still to come out.

[West is Best]

Yeah despite a truly amazing winter for Europe the warmest January ever globally.

Ever ?

And on the eighth day God did set up global weather stations, and He saw that they were good.

The global datasets do not have a long baseline, nor are they reliable diachronically. One of the few datasets I would trust with any reliability now is the CET, and even that has a lot of quite suspect elements to it. Given that some of the adjustments in recent years to the Hadley set look slightly suspect there is perhaps a window of reasonable reliability from around 1750ish to 1920: not long is it? And that's the longest and most reliable the human race has.

In short, one can be forgiven for thinking that the NOAA 'warmest ever' guff is just that: a load of crock to prop up researchers making their living out of the AGW bandwagon.

[osmposm]

It would probably be sensible to be more precise, but I think we all know it means "ever recorded" (notwithstanding your reasonable concerns about the reliability of even that).

Would you have minded so much if Scotland had got down to -30C this winter, and it was described as the coldest night ever in the UK?

Edited February 19, 2010 by osmposm

[osmposm]

....Empirically, quantitatively, this has been an historically cold winter. In CET terms it will be the coldest for 20+ years, and possibly since 1978/9. In some ways the most 'impressive' feature has been the consistent absence of mild: it has remained relentlessly chilly.

Absolutely - and everywhere, too...though the heavy snowfall and extreme cold has been more regional, and even local. London has had neither, while places only 30 or 40 miles west - Reading, for example, and of course Benson - have had one or other in spades.

[Cymro]

I find it ignorant to say that its not historical because populous regions such as London etc. haven't received exceptional amounts of snow and cold akin to most of the Country, I mean snow lying from December till now and being topped up that is not normal, on average the mountains round here have 40 days of snow cover they currently have had 72 and we still have a while to go, 40 days of snow cover here on lower ground and a frost on most morning, mild weather has found it difficult to penetrate far and for a prolonged time, the cold has been evident since about the 12th of December and hasn't really moved. In theory this is what a typical British winter should be like, and I hope this will soon become the norm, it does wonders for our country, kills viruses that blight potatoes and ruin farmers crops, common colds and flues have been far less common this year all due to the weather conditions. What a Winter I say.

[Nick L]

I find it ignorant to say that its not historical because populous regions such as London etc. haven't received exceptional amounts of snow and cold akin to most of the Country, I mean snow lying from December till now and being topped up that is not normal, on average the mountains round here have 40 days of snow cover they currently have had 72 and we still have a while to go, 40 days of snow cover here on lower ground and a frost on most morning, mild weather has found it difficult to penetrate far and for a prolonged time, the cold has been evident since about the 12th of December and hasn't really moved. In theory this is what a typical British winter should be like, and I hope this will soon become the norm, it does wonders for our country, kills viruses that blight potatoes and ruin farmers crops, common colds and flues have been far less common this year all due to the weather conditions. What a Winter I say.

I was only thinking last week that I hadn't had one cold yet this winter...then 2 days later I got a nasty one

If some of the projected snowfall totals come true for the Midlands and Wales next week then this winter will go right up there with the very best winters - if it hasn't achieved that status already that is.

[azores92]

i still think the virae have been out and about a lot this winter, despite the cold weather. i had a cold that lasted a good couple of weeks, and i know a fair few people that have had a cold one time or another this winter.

[Weather-history]

Last winter we had a 11 week period that averaged below 3C for the CET

29th November 2008 - 13th February 2009: 2.8C

This winter we have had a 10 week period that has averaged below 2C for the CET

11th December 2009 - 18th February 2010 CET: 1.8C

[Higher Ground]

In theory this is what a typical British winter should be like

I've just been playing around with the winter (Dec-Feb) CET figures since 1660 on Excel.

If the CET for Feb 2010 were to end up at 2.8C i.e. the current figure (fairly realistic as things stand), the CET for this winter would be 2.43C.

This would have been colder than average for every 10-year period in the record, except for 1675-1684 and 1676-1685. [N.b. equalling 1677-1686 average.]. And at least ~1C colder than the average for any 10-year period in the past century.

Also, to cherry pick an interesting fact, even in 1940 it would have been the 3rd coldest winter in 45 years.

Further, it would bring to an end the longest run of winters greater than 2.5C in the record (1980-2009 i.e. 30 winters). Same with the longest run of winters of 3.0C or greater (1987-2009 i.e. 23 winters). Though interestingly it would also ensure that the longest run of winters *greater than* 3.0C in the record, that is 3.1C or above, remains 1896-1916 (i.e. 21 winters) for at least a couple more decades! [Coldest winters between 1896 and 1916 were 1900 and 1907 with average CET of 3.1C, whereas in the last 20 years both 1991 and 1996 had a winter CET of 3.0C]

Just a bit of fun! (And perhaps worth double-checking as i just calculated all this quickly in a spare moment).

Edited February 19, 2010 by Higher Ground

[osmposm]

I find it ignorant to say that its not historical because populous regions such as London etc. haven't received exceptional amounts of snow and cold akin to most of the Country......In theory this is what a typical British winter should be like, and I hope this will soon become the norm, it does wonders for our country, kills viruses that blight potatoes and ruin farmers crops, common colds and flues have been far less common this year all due to the weather conditions. What a Winter I say.

I hope you don't think I was saying that - I have been at pains in various posts to say that (1) although London has seen no extremes, a host of other places in many different parts of the UK have, and (2) London, like everywhere else, has experienced exceptionally - and I would say historically significant - long-lived and consistent cold.

I rather agree with the last part of your post - I am hoping for a spring & summer of gardening slightly less blighted by fungal diseases and rampant insect pests than of late....perhaps it may even have slowed down the multi-pronged attack on our Horse Chestnuts, which have been in a sorry state in recent years.

Unfortunately the South-East's huge flocks of ring-necked parakeets - unsettling, incredibly raucous aliens (far commmoner now than the 'cockney sparrow') that often drown out our native birdsong - don't seem to have been affected at all!

Edited February 19, 2010 by osmposm

[Thundery wintry showers]

I've seen a few posts floating about regarding how disappointing February has been for snow lovers in some parts of the country, notably around the Geordie heartlands of the North East, and concluding that this hasn't been an historic winter because of that.

It is easy to forget that many of those "historic" winters had individual months that produced very little snow for parts of the country. For example 1984/85 and 1985/86 both had mild Decembers, with the Boxing Day NW'ly of December 1984 and the northerly of late December 1985 only providing snow for some. In 1978/79, many places didn't have a great deal of snow during December 1978, while the Lancaster area had surprisingly little snow during February 1979. Some people have commented recently that in many central and eastern parts, particularly in the south, there was a good deal of dull dry cold weather during February 1986.

Of course this winter isn't going to compare with 1947 and 1963. 1947 was phenomenal for its snow amounts, while 1963 was phenomenal for how persistently cold it was. But I'm sure it's already done enough to fall into the league occupied by the likes of 1951, 1955, 1969, 1970, 1982, 1985 etc, and if we get some more significant wintry spells between now and June, it could approach 1979.

[ScottSnow]

I've seen a few posts floating about regarding how disappointing February has been for snow lovers in some parts of the country, notably around the Geordie heartlands of the North East, and concluding that this hasn't been an historic winter because of that.

It is easy to forget that many of those "historic" winters had individual months that produced very little snow for parts of the country. For example 1984/85 and 1985/86 both had mild Decembers, with the Boxing Day NW'ly of December 1984 and the northerly of late December 1985 only providing snow for some. In 1978/79, many places didn't have a great deal of snow during December 1978, while the Lancaster area had surprisingly little snow during February 1979. Some people have commented recently that in many central and eastern parts, particularly in the south, there was a good deal of dull dry cold weather during February 1986.

Of course this winter isn't going to compare with 1947 and 1963. 1947 was phenomenal for its snow amounts, while 1963 was phenomenal for how persistently cold it was. But I'm sure it's already done enough to fall into the league occupied by the likes of 1951, 1955, 1969, 1970, 1982, 1985 etc, and if we get some more significant wintry spells between now and June, it could approach 1979.

Agreed, up here we had a lot more lying snow and colder temps in Dec and Jan but February hasn't been that bad and in other years may even have been labelled 'snowy'.

I do not keep any records but off the top of my head I would say that there has been a number of days with falling snow already and quite a few days with partial snowcover in the morning. Theres been quite a bit of frost and no really mild days.

In the last 'easterly' around the 9th there was quite a bit of snow in areas inland that had a little height such as Burnopfield and Consett. The northern Pennines have more snowcover now than they did late Jan.

Here so far this month probably compares to Feb 05 in parts of the south when although there wasn't a lot of lying snow there was plenty of days when it fell. Although I maintain higher areas in Northumberland and Co.Durham have probably had quite a lot of days with lying snow as well.

Certainly with the potential for more snow events february will cap off quite nicely what has already been a memorable winter although not in the historic category of 47, 63 and 79.

Its just that we have been spoilt this winter and our expectations are probably that bit higher now.

[Stargazer]

From my perspective it's certainly been the snowiest winter since 1981/82, even if we haven't had any measurable snow since the first half of January, and it could turn out to be the coldest since then too. The unusual features have been the exceptionally cold and snowy spell from mid December to mid January and the lack of any consistently mild weather since early December.

It's certainly worth keeping an eye on the February CET to see where it finally ends up. According to my calculations, we need a February CET of...

3.2 to equal winter 1981/2 (winter CET 2.57)

3.6 to equal 1985/6 (2.70)

4.2 to equal 1986/7 (2.90)

4.6 to equal 1990/1 (3.03)

My money's on the coldest winter in terms of the CET since 1978/9 (we'd need a February CET of 0.2 to match 1978/9).

Edited February 19, 2010 by Stargazer

[StewieEatWorld]

I'm classing this winter as an historic winter because at a young age, it's the first time ive seen lying snow for that length of time. My only other notable winter was 06 i think. Woke up on sunday morning to have knee height snow, only to watch it melt away the next day.

Also, a picture of the UK on the bbc website showed the whole UK white. I thought that was pretty sweet!

[kold weather]

Yeah TWS I agree its most certainly in the historic winter, yesterdays snowfall was yet another little piece of evidence which weighs into that arguement, like they say on the Tesco advert, every little helps!

IMO its all going to come down to what you think historic is, see I personally think historic is something that will be remembered in your lifetime but people on weather forums in 200 years won't really give it a second thought, where as winters like 46-47 and 62-63 are legendary winters that even well into the future wil lbe stand out winters that are talked about IMO.

Stargazer, I think odds are very high that we will get the coldest winter since 78-79, the odds for a winter below 2.5C is very much still in the air but hopefully we can get that and end that very long run of 30 winters above 2.5C.