General Model Output Discussion

[PB22]

To say that 'I think we all know where we will be headed' is quite presumptious based on what we have seen so far. I think the thaw in your part of the world may have something to do with the warmth of the North Sea impacting further inland than would normally be the case ?

Pot, kettle, black comes to mind Ian when you suggest I am being presumptious after your early/mid December thoughts! One could turn it around and suggest those that think the UKMO 12z run is over progressive are also being presumptious. Swings and roundabouts.

The ECM will be out shortly, and judging from the London ensembles this morning, a milder outcome by next weekend has to be the favoured option:

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html

[kent]

i think it is fair to say that the big freeze of the last 21 days is over as we have known it we should be thankful for what we have recieved thus far and look forward to further scenarios this winter is far fro over!

For our one measly inch in Poole, not a memorable winter for me. Being a realist its obvious from the output that there will be no short term mega snow or ice age. People are still clutching at straws.

[beng]

The ECM will be out shortly, and judging from the London ensembles this morning, a milder outcome by next weekend has to be the favoured option:

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html

It's very possible that ECM will be milder tonight, however it's also worth remembering that the operational is run at a higher resolution than its ensembles and that will be important in this kind of scenario - i.e. the ensembles may play catchup.

[bluearmy]

i think todays temp thaw should be a lesson that we want a draw off the continent rather than the north sea if possible. i also think some posters (and i'm not being patronising here) are too young to have seen a 'breakdown' as is likely this week. take note of what the more experienced and knowledgeable posters write.

the NAE at midday tuesday has temps in northern france at -4c. what a warm southerly that would be!! the form horse will be a trough stalling and fizzling out to be followed by a second push which will make it through. (i think the ukmo 12z looks a bit progressive on this). however, the block appears to me to be modelled too far east in comparison to the NAEFS ens. therefore, the second push may not make it through and we could end up in a cold col.

ecm at T72 diff to ukmo with the trough disruption already evident.

[West Sussex Kate]

If we look at the rest of the worlds temps and conditions surely this is a good indication of the fact this cold spell will go on.

[Nick F]

i think the upper air temps are to blame for todays letdown in some parts of the country infact catching out the meto aswell,

i also think its silly to have warnings for some much of england for wed but im sure thease will be changed in a dramatic way come mon evening.

ecm most like will still prog mildish,

i think but the idear of a major snow event this week from the alantic unless the low pushes right in is a none runner.

but all the same there are background features that could happen which may help for this mildish to not stick around for to long.

Why do you think upper air temps are to blame? Have you seen the 850s for today?

Seen John Holmes' blog, he suggests other factors like precipitation intensity, and overdoing of it by the models yesterday. Plus, I think, moist low-level feed off N Sea.

[Cloud 10]

gfs ukmo ecm

The big 3 models at +72.

Anyone care to make a forecast?

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 12z sadly shows an end to our wonderful cold spell as winds in the later output are pumping up from just off the west coast of africa around the canary islands. The gfs 12z makes more of a fight of it with an east v west battle that tips the balance in favour of less cold for a time but with a massive wintry reload later in the run. I have to say that our prolonged cold spell is now on very shaky ground, hope the ecm 12z can rescue it.

[karyo]

The ECM is going the wrong way at 120 hours. Getting milder from the west!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=0

Karyo

Edited January 10, 2010 by karyo

[PB22]

ECM 12Z going the way of UKMO 12Z it seems:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html

Despite the confusion at T+72, there is more agreement from the European models that milder conditions are on the way for next weekend.

[Bobby]

Get out the deck chairs and BBQ

Solid agreement now from UKMO, ECM and GFS ensembles that the milder wetter weather Atlantic is returning.

Nothing certain yet though.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

ECM suggests a more measured approach and keeps it cold in the east right up to t120.

FI remains firmly at midweek. Too many differences at t72, but it does look as if the UMO has gone OTT with the low into the south west at this time. On that basis then you can reasonably suggest it is being over progressive as it has no support elsewhere at this stage.

Edit - and t144 shows the block holding on to the east of the UK and signs of a stalled zone over central parts as it suggests building back westwards.

Edited January 10, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[snowingman]

Cold spell is OVER!!!

snow this week is over exaggerated and limited to a small amount on the highest hills early in week

By next weekend we will be looking forward to wearing our normal winter gear - t-shirts and raincoats!!

GFS has nailed this cold spell, the biggest downgrade in the past 4 weeks - and only at 3 days... don't be telling me 3 days is fantasy land, these charts have been hinting at this for 4 days now

The question is - when will the chaps on the tv actual say - milder weather on the way!!

bit of an anticlimax really, especially all the forecasted snow this week,... out with a wimper

I thought I would just release this again...

[Frosty.]

The ECM is going the wrong way at 120 hours. Getting milder from the west!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=0

Karyo

Yes it looks like the games up for our classic cold spell with the scandi high drifting further east allowing the atlantic to win eventually.

[igloo]

Hidious by 120 hours !!!

double digit temps by next weekend by the looks of things

[SMU]

Get out the deck chairs and BBQ

I doubt it im afraid- still very cold for England- go look at the 144 chart- the 120 is a classic 60's type chart- ( low 530' thicknesses)

If the 12zeds are being that tad progressive- which is highly likely then those southerlies will be South easterlies & still be attracting low level surface cold from France-

If thats how it evolves watch an Easterly appear-

S

Edited January 10, 2010 by Steve Murr

[Upgrade]

Well, at least it will be mild.

[Bristawl Si]

Get out the deck chairs and BBQ

Solid agreement now from UKMO, ECM and GFS ensembles that the milder wetter weather Atlantic is returning.

Nothing certain yet though.

"Club Tropicana drinks are free, fun and sunshine there's enough for everyone!"

Model trends indicate quicker breakdown than first thought a day or two ago. Still it's only January 10th - another 6/8 weeks left yet.

[PB22]

double digit temps by next weekend by the looks of things

Perhaps not double digits, but it will certainly be getting back towards nearer normal values:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

Hints that pressure may build in beyond T+168 which may then link up with the high to the east, but thats a long, long way off.

[snowingtequila]

I thought I would just release this again...

why?

[rich1]

I thought I would just release this again...

you shouldnt have bothered...

as it is, still a lot of variability in the short range

lookin at the synoptic charts for the end of the week, wouldnt take a big change for cold to return even if it turns less cold for a while

[HighPressure]

It certainly seems compelling for a breakdown next weekend as it is gathering more and more support with each model and each run. ECM the clincher for me with GFS already on board its difficult to see the Cold winning out now?

[swfc]

Ecm does push things further threw than earlier but the atlantic doesnt get threw the uk.Not bad after nearly a month.????Look at the 192 chart,not much atlantic influence there really.????

Edited January 10, 2010 by swfc

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Interesting how people are interpreting what they see this evening. I see no proper atlantic return or extensive mild conditions. It looks as though eastern parts especially may stay on the cold side and be dry whilst western areas see less cold weather, at least just for a time. Every possibility (and indication imo) that high pressure to the north east is going to be a more resisting player than some envisage.

FI remains mid week..Best to take the models on the tad progressive side, most particularly the UKMO though

[Steve Edgefield]

Some people are looking at the pressure charts and making some very uninformed statements about milder weather/breakdowns etc. etc. Remember that most of continental Europe is v cold, including France and so any southerlies/south-easterlies are likely to be cold. This is something of an old style winter where winds from this direction at this time of year are generally cold - something which hasn't necessarily been the case in recent winters.