General Model Output Discussion

[Thundery wintry showers]

The HP struggling to get far west enough to bring us an easterly has nothing to do with a "Bartlett", it's the polar vortex being too strong to the NW leading to deep low pressure around Iceland.

[Solar Cycles]

Well to me, next week is looking an old school chart. A huge block to the East, and the Atlantic trying to muscle in from the West. My money is on that huge high.

Ps

Whats all this nonsense about a Bartlett, for the life in me I can't find one on any of those charts. Still, some like to make mischief, so each to their own!

Edited January 14, 2010 by Solar Cycles

[nick sussex]

I can only assume Nick that you're looking north-west which is not where a Bartlett high sits. Here's a Bartlett high. Go south from Britain to southern France and this is a Bartlett:

That's from the 12z GFS ... T150

And this explains a Bartlett High:

'What 'high' blocks there have been stay teasingly just too far east and more often than not, a broad band of high pressure extends from the Azores area, east-north-eastwards towards the Biscay / English Channel region - perhaps now & then displaced towards the Alps ...The apparently semi-permanent belt of high pressure in the 'wrong' place has been christened ... "The Bartlett High", in honour of Paul Bartlett'

From 'What is a Bartlett High' http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/117

Doesn't mean it will happen, but it's most certainly there on both the GFS and UKMO.

We're going to have to agree to disagree here. You cannot have a bartlett high with that set up shown in the chart you posted, BH normally are one large high pressure ridging from the sw Atlantic with low pressure heading ne right through Scandi, the sw flow then drives right into central europe, unfortunately that chart you posted shows the majority of Europe with very cold temps from the Siberian high. A Bartlett is known for its longevity, a transient high thrown up for a few days is not a BH, in BH scenarios the ridge persists and keeps getting replaced as the upstream pattern dictates.

[ghrud]

Just wondering which model Michael Fish has used, because his forecast looks very promising, but models dont show that, does look good though tue/wed with cold continental air on gfs 12Z

I think he (Michael Fish) was suggesting that the Barlett High, which isn't (it would have to sit over Iberia to be a Batlett), will join forces with the mega high to our east which will help it re-assert itself. This is an idea the models seem to have backed away from at the moment, but lets see.

[West is Best]

A Bartlett is known for its longevity, a transient high thrown up for a few days is not a BH, in BH scenarios the ridge persists and keeps getting replaced as the upstream pattern dictates.

OK Nick, so if that 'transient high thrown up for a few days' which you now admit is showing goes on to establish itself for a few weeks you'll acknowledge that GFS and UKMO were right to prog it now?

Don't get me wrong: hope I'm wrong. But having studied models for years, and been through this for a long time, it's a concern to see it.

Will bow out. Must remember only to post when charts are showing what most people want to see ...!

Peace all.

p.s. Cloud 10. First pic is not a Bartlett.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looking further at WIB's link, it's not often that I disagree with something posted in the official info archives at uk.sci.weather, but I think this is inaccurate:

As the nights draw in, and the yellowing leaves are blown hither & yon in the autumn gales & rain, thoughts of many on this newsgroup turn to ... the "Scandinavian High"! Reason? Well, for those of us living in the 'maritime' region of NW Europe, to get any sort of prolonged cold, wintry weather, we really need a large (in horizontal extent), slow-moving, intense anticyclone - primary centre northern/arctic Russia (probably in excess of 1045 mbar central pressure) - with a strong and persistent ridge extending westwards over Scandinavia - spawning occasional discrete but reasonably 'solid' individual high cells around the periphery; these cells from time-to-time taking over as the primary focus of high pressure.

The Scandinavian High often features as a precursor to an extended spell of cold snowy weather, but it's not often you get an extended cold snowy spell with high pressure hanging around Scandinavia and Russia. More often it ends up cold, dry and cloudy like in March 1996.

Prolonged cold snowy spells are usually the result of high pressure meandering repeatedly between Greenland and Scandinavia and a large majority of our coldest, snowiest spells have actually had a stronger base for HP over Greenland than over Scandinavia.

[winterof79]

The HP struggling to get far west enough to bring us an easterly has nothing to do with a "Bartlett", it's the polar vortex being too strong to the NW leading to deep low pressure around Iceland.

After trawling through pages of this thread,some of which is utter nonsense,i now know that the majority on here have no idea what will transpire.The meto outlook says battle to me.The Look North forecast says middle of next week snow event.The mainstream bbc says cold to return.The models show an almighty battle as of old.While the siberian high is in place expect fireworks.

[Jack Wales]

I agree with NS, the models indicate more mobility and milder synoptics but no Bartlett. Bartletts tend to hang around for longer periods and often result in 850's >10C

how some people are in denial on what the models are showing for the next 5-6 days

No offence but I think you need to visit the learning area and better understand the models yourself before making quips like that against experienced members. F1 lol!

Edited January 14, 2010 by Jack Wales

[tinybill]

all i can say is well done Nick last night reg big freeze 3 looking at the gfs F1 looking good even our local BBC girl to-night on BBC said its starting to get cold again from Tuesday again

[nick sussex]

OK Nick, so if that 'transient high thrown up for a few days' which you now admit is showing goes on to establish itself for a few weeks you'll acknowledge that GFS and UKMO were right to prog it now?

Don't get me wrong: hope I'm wrong. But having studied models for years, and been through this for a long time, it's a concern to see it.

Will bow out. Must remember only to post when charts are showing what most people want to see ...!

Peace all.

p.s. Cloud 10. First pic is not a Bartlett.

WIB the transient high shown in those charts still isn't a Bartlett! its the Azores high, and lets say those charts remained static for a week it still wouldn't be a BH. Lets just leave this and move on as i think the whole thread is probably bored to tears by now.

[Eugene]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1922.gif

Very poor JMA 12Z tonight, not far off bartlett territory, nonsense GFS 12Z OP shows a bartlett though BUT some ensemble runs show something similar to JMA.

Thank god for ECM 12Z but you have to admit the atlantic is favourite to win after mid week and i`m an optimist

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

WIB the transient high shown in those charts still isn't a Bartlett! its the Azores high, and lets say those charts remained static for a week it still wouldn't be a BH. Lets just leave this and move on as i think the whole thread is probably bored to tears by now.

Agreed because there is no bartlett high on ANY output this evening.

[keithlucky]

Nope a few on here eye of the sky been hinting at a strong easterley theres gathering evidence to back this up,michael fish weatheronline met office (some forecasters)you will see they will be proved correct.

[Jack Wales]

Nope a few on here eye of the sky been hinting at a strong easterley theres gathering evidence to back this up,michael fish weatheronline met office (some forecasters)you will see they will be proved correct.

Bizarre post, can you please attach links to the 'gathering evidence' please? At the moment, according to the models there is a chance of an easterly at approx T+120, but this appears transient at best. The strong PV/jet mean that the atlantic appears unstoppable on most of the output.

[Jason T]

This may sound silly,but whats the weather for next week, COLD AND SNOW--OR--MILD AND RAIN.

[Eugene]

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/banner/page.html

lol hey why they getting excited over these on TWO the latest base time on there is this mornings 00Z ensembles, old data now so of no use

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/banner/page.html

lol hey why they getting excited over these on TWO the latest base time on there is this mornings 00Z ensembles, old data now so of no use

SAYS 12 UTC THUR?

[Tom D]

This may sound silly,but whats the weather for next week, COLD AND SNOW--OR--MILD AND RAIN.

On a global scale... both.

[karyo]

I am relieved to see the 12z UKMO. It looks a whole better than the other big two, with the Atlantic not looking as fearsome!

Karyo

[igloo]

This may sound silly,but whats the weather for next week, COLD AND SNOW--OR--MILD AND RAIN.

well it looks lke mild wet and windy going by todays outputs

[winterof79]

well it looks lke mild wet and windy going by todays outputs

Is it possible to show the forum some charts to back up the" mild wet and windy".I take it that means western fringes and not any Northern and Eastern parts.

[Nick L]

well it looks lke mild wet and windy going by todays outputs

In agreement with the poster just before me, I am getting tired of these general statements without anything provided to back them up. It's getting tiring and irritating - especially to those like me who are trying to learn.

Edited January 14, 2010 by nick2702

[TEITS]

Bizarre post, can you please attach links to the 'gathering evidence' please? At the moment, according to the models there is a chance of an easterly at approx T+120, but this appears transient at best. The strong PV/jet mean that the atlantic appears unstoppable on most of the output.

If you read the post again what evidence Keith is suggesting is the Met O, Micheal Fish forecast.

Some may read the Met O forecast and look at the model output and be somewhat confused. However im not and I can explain exactly why the Met O outlook is more wintry than the models suggest.

Like I say many times in some circumstances you have to look at the model output and figure out whether what they are suggesting is plausible and if not what is the likely outcome. Now the Met O outlook is probably more wintry for two reasons. The first one being the ECM ensembles and secondly the duty forecaster may feel the models are underestimating the block to our NE. This can clearly be seen as the Met O have discounted recent UKMO model output.

With this current pattern its quiet plausible to see a sudden shift in the model output towards a much colder E,ly and this could even occur within +96. This is why im not discounting the possibility just yet. Remember forecasting isn't just quoting what the models say because frankly even my mother could do this! The trick of forecasting is knowing when the models are wrong or right. Our current pattern requires something that is often lacking these days and thats called forecasting instinct. Unfortunately this forecasting instinct is being lost these days as we become more dependable on the models!

Im not saying an E,ly is on its way but im too old and wise to assume mild SW,lys will occur just because the GFS says so.

[Roger J Smith]

TEITS, long time no see. Did you notice the 1067 mb pressure shown on the Siberian high at some point around day five? That would be epic.

I agree with the idea of this cold spell setting in for a day or two, not sure if it can sustain much more because of a return to zonality further west. All forecasts on a knife edge now, but the eventual trend is probably to milder weather end of the month, possibly very mild for 2-3 days and quite windy with it.

[Jason T]

Would anyone agree that this easterly cold spell we experianced, can have a nasty sting in its tail. I personally think its not over by along shot and the best or worse depending how viewed is yet to come from it.