Model Output Discussion

[weather eater]

The last cold spell looked dry on the model output, but look how much snow some of us got from it. Get a decent easterly and all kinds of things are possible. :lol:

Oh yes all things are possible and we would have to see how things shaped up nearer the time, but at the moment it looks cold but mainly dry. Certainly here during the last easterly, although we had snow falling on three consecutive days it was never more than flurries and only really topped up what we already had by about 1cm. It would be fair to say as usual in these circumstances, lets get the cold first and worry about snow after, just be aware that cold easterlies don't always bring snowfall even on east facing coasts.

[Weather-history]

I suspect GFS 06z Op run will be one of the coldest members if not an outlier for early next week.

[Frosty.]

Probably best to reign in the excitement until the ecm and ukmo come onboard (if they do at all!) although it does look similar to the gem 00z. The 6z would be a great run for coldies but don't get suckered in yet as any small errors in the math will implode it by the next run.

Edited January 19, 2010 by Frosty039

[Optimus Prime]

Certainly wouldn't be a brief event high pressure would regain control. The GFS run would be very cold indeed.

What we have to remember the GFS is a poor performer but the GEM has been very good lately. I'm going to stick with the ECM that keeps things much less cold, but cold nonetheless.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

MY word thats a cold run,lets hope gfs has come up with the right idea.ecm ensembles look good but i'll wait until i see GP ramping before i get ahead of myself.

[kold weather]

I also think the ECM is a more likely evolution, but once again like I've been saying recently, there really isn't a huge deal of difference between say a mild SW flow and what the GFS progs in terms of the synoptic evolution. FWIW the 06z GFS reminds me quite a lot of the FEb 91 spell.

However as others have said this is an extreme run, BUT the possible cold seems to be becoming the fav once again on those models one way or the other....either through HP, a cold SE flow or the beast...

[grab my graupel]

Nice charts for cold lovers this morning, but the 06z GFS has often been known to overplay the blocking, so

I would expect to see something a little more watered down on the 12z run.

[Weather-history]

i'll wait until i see GP ramping before i get ahead of myself.

With all due respect, GP ramped last February and looked what happened. I wouldn't get ahead of myself at all :lol:

Edited January 19, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Bobby]

Big cold outlier as we knew:

[Let_it_snow]

I suspect GFS 06z Op run will be one of the coldest members if not an outlier for early next week.

This could quite easily be a cold outlier however on the 00z there were some members going for this sort of cold, we are now 6 hours closer to the event.....maybe it is coming round to the cold idea more.........

[Frosty.]

I suppose after the winter we have had so far, excluding the current milder blip, anything is possible and the ecm does have a lot more colder solutions than the 00z op run so maybe the 6z isn't as extreme as some think and it's interesting to note the gfs has dumped the Northerly from FI for 1 run at least.

[Coast]

New thread coming shortly

[Southender]

So as the 06z was a massive cold outlier, are we expecting the 12z to bring us back down to earth with a bump...

[Ben_Cambs]

I wouldnt say GFS 06z is a massive cold outlier, the ECM ensembles have gradually got colder and colder recently...

Edited January 19, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Coast]

Here we go: netweather.tv/model-output-discussion