3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 7

[Ben_Cambs]

Aye there is plenty of seagulls around here at the moment, so TEITS sign for the Easterly works for me aswell! Cracking GFS and UKMO this evening. We should all be at risk from snow from those charts!

And welcome to the forum Fenboy, the Fens certainly are a lovely place

[Ben_Cambs]

What can I say? Lovely charts for this region this evening, along with the SE, we would be in the prime position for snow next week. This is now possibly going to be a prologned cold spell

[Bolton67]

What can I say? Lovely charts for this region this evening, along with the SE, we would be in the prime position for snow next week. This is now possibly going to be a prologned cold spell

Agree

All our region should see some snowfall. those in the East of our region getting the best snowfalls.

Still, we in the west will be in the Action.

[Mrsf16]

So can we officially start to get excited???

[Bolton67]

So can we officially start to get excited???

Well the big 3 all have the Agreement of A very cold spell coming.

Once the cold is here Anything can happen (snow wise).

Tonights 12z ECM run had an Easterly that ran straight Across the ATLANTIC.

what more can you say!!

here..

Edited February 5, 2010 by Lancs_Northants

[Tringaling]

Hi All,

I think my excitement level has just shifted into 3rd gear. It is beginning to look as though here in 'No Mans Shires' we may expect some appreciable white stuff in the next week. Further East will get more but we should get some anyway.

tara4now

tringaling

[Ben_Cambs]

Just to say the cold is now nailed on but snow usually doesnt get nailed until within a very short time range, at T+48 hours at best. So theres little point in talking about exact snow amounts for next week just now. :lol:

[Tim Bland]

This is mostly aimed at TEITS if he is reading but anyone can answer;

On the 17th Dec the region saw 2 streamers give heavy snow from a NE setup. Uppers where not extreme (-10) and there where no depressions in the north sea. Are any of the charts for next week similar to this set up? Also why did an Easterly in Feb 1991 give heavy prolonged snow fall when most Easterlies only give snow showers to the extreme east?

Last nights fax shows a trough just off the east coast for Tues, would be nice if tonights update shows it pushing into the region on Tues night;

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

I say this is aimed at TEITS as I recall he forecast the Dec 17th event days in advance and got it spot on.

Edited February 5, 2010 by Tim Bland

[Ben_Cambs]

This is mostly aimed at TEITS if he is reading but anyone can answer;

On the 17th Dec the region saw 2 streamers give heavy snow from a NE setup. Uppers where not extreme (-10) and there where no depressions in the north sea. Are any of the charts for next week similar to this set up? Also why did an Easterly in Feb 1991 give heavy prolonged snow fall when most Easterlies only give snow showers to the extreme east?

I say this is aimed at TEITS as I recall he forecast the Dec 17th event days in advance and got it spot on.

I will attempt to answer part of the question for you, regarding Feb 1991.

I think usually it depends on 1. 850 uppers and 2. How deep the cold pool is.

8th Feb 1991 introduced some very cold air from Siberia. Some very cold air was in the form of a cold pool, and it reached the UK via the Easterly . The deeper the cold pool, the more convection there is there more showers that are generated from the North Sea. As you see from these 3 charts, the deep cold pool just sat around the South East of the UK for 3 days.

So there was a lot of convection and three days of continous heavy snow showers across many parts of the UK, and especially places like EA

How much shower activity next week depends on how deep and how lasting the pool of cold air is. It will be firmed up in the next few days I should think.

Hope this helps :lol:

Edited February 5, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Tim Bland]

Thanks for your reply. I assume then that the cold pool in 1991 was there for a sustained period to build in intensity before the snowy easterly. A good 18z coming out now with everything a bit further west with some heavier precipitation showing up for Tuesday. Cold pool edging closer http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn841.png

[BarnetBlizzard]

Thanks for your reply. I assume then that the cold pool in 1991 was there for a sustained period to build in intensity before the snowy easterly. A good 18z coming out now with everything a bit further west with some heavier precipitation showing up for Tuesday. Cold pool edging closer http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn841.png

Yes, the cold reaches us quicker but the high is further southwest therefore the realy cold reaches us quite a bit later, also with drier conditions. I hope this run is a blip as the ensembles show the high to further northwest.

[Tim Bland]

I wouldnt want to rub it in over in the model thread but we are in the best place this week to see snow. Even this run being worst case scenario has the potential for widespread snow showers on several days. As discussed earlier the feb 91 spell took a while to get entrenched so there is a good potential for the cold pool to push over us next weekend shoving the high further NW. I think there is enough agreement over the models now to expect a middle ground between what all of them are showing, and that all points to cold with sunny spells and snow showers for most days next week. Details of any disturbances or widespread events won't be forecastable until 24/48hrs in advance.

Latest from Paul Bartlet is here http://www.rutnet.co.uk/pp/gold/viewGold.asp?IDType=Page&ID=22 he is usualy on the money and by no means a cold ramper - Hence the name Batlett lol! This forecast is for Rutland which is in the East mids / Western most part of East anglia.

Edited February 5, 2010 by Tim Bland

[Ben_Cambs]

While GFS 18z isnt the greatest, we are at the most risk of snow and plus the 18z last night was quite poor and looked what happened today.

[Mrsf16]

Trying to read through the model thread is like trying to seperate my kids from fighting!!! People need to be sent to their rooms and learn a little respect for others! Is making feel quite sad to see..... have lurked here for a long time and its never been like this...

I would be VERY grateful if someone far more learned than I could give a summary of how they see it. Thanks in advance.

[Fenboy]

Trying to read through the model thread is like trying to seperate my kids from fighting!!! People need to be sent to their rooms and learn a little respect for others! Is making feel quite sad to see..... have lurked here for a long time and its never been like this...

I would be VERY grateful if someone far more learned than I could give a summary of how they see it. Thanks in advance.

Hello Mrsf16 - you kindly replied to my first ever blog last night. I fully agree with you about the Kids!! I shall be out and about Sat/Sun looking for increased bird flocks moving in from caost - I reckon the cold is going to come a little at a time from Monday onwards - snow chancesbest latter part of next week. Question not down to the pub tonight!¬ lol

[donna-m]

Mrs F16 - i totally agree with you, while i have been a lurker in model thread for the last few years i have never posted and read . This last week has been very frustrating but nt only from the models but posters bickering. I do understand that they are Discussing the models but its more like my kids fighting than an adult discussion, hence why i've came in here tonight!!

Anyway i'm hoping i'll be alright for a snow flake or 2, but being on the coast is usually a disadvantage ,except for this yr (so far)- where i have seen the biggest falls ever 17 Dec then in beginning Jan

[Jason T]

Well i think the main thing is that AT LAST we have the east AGAIN However this next HIT has a few tricks with it. I think that temps will be the coldest compared to recent EVENTS also SNOWFALL will be DOUBLE.

This is its last HIT.... This one i think carries the SCORPION tail from the start.

[Mrsf16]

Thanks for the replies everyone!! Fen boy, no, no pub tonight!! heheh Donna, fingers crossed for you guys!! Silver Line, I like your post!!! hehehhe I certainly hope this comes to fruition!!! We missed out on really decent snowfall in December, so Im hoping it doesnt pass us by this time!!! I guess only time will really tell!!

Nite all x

[Jason T]

Thanks for the replies everyone!! Fen boy, no, no pub tonight!! heheh Donna, fingers crossed for you guys!! Silver Line, I like your post!!! hehehhe I certainly hope this comes to fruition!!! We missed out on really decent snowfall in December, so Im hoping it doesnt pass us by this time!!! I guess only time will really tell!!

Nite all x

I think it will. MRS16F your gonna get SNOWFALL. Im guessing at thursday eve,NEXT week about 8 cms by friday morning FIRST FALL.

[Ben_Cambs]

Well my summary of the models today is that the Atlantic is knocked out in the back of a boxing ring with no attempt to get up! This is now likely IMO to be a prologned cold spell. The snow risk increases from Tuesday onwards. Then towards next weekend we see the high over Northern Britain moving towards Greenland, forming a classic "sausage" shape with the Greenland high. And that can only mean one thing, a reload of cold and probably snow from the NE.

Seeing this is now likely to be a prologned spell, Im pretty sure everyone on here will see snow at some point!

[Rich44]

I'll take some of this for here please

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8501246.stm

Edited February 6, 2010 by Rich44

[Ben_Cambs]

Looking at the models today, there is the POTENTIAL for the upcoming cold spell to be more SEVERE than the last one in January.

Still IMO the middle part of next week looks very good for snow

As requested by a member on the model thread (MK Snow Angel) I will repost TEITS post on his thoughts for the spell

Based on all the models I would currently say the potential is there for this cold spell to be more prolonged and severe than our previous cold spells. At the moment I see this coming in 3 stages although of course subject to change.

Stage 1.

Sun-Wed a slack NNE/NE,ly flow bringing max temps between 2-4C with snow showers especially for NE parts.

Stage 2.

Wed-Sunday Winds veering E,ly and turning colder with max temps around 0C. Snow showers becoming more frequent and widespread. During this period the HP starting to back NW.

Stage 3.

HP over Greenland bringing a renewed surge of cold N/NE,lys. However at the same time LP may move across the S.

The potential is there for week 2 to be more wintry than week 1.

Again this is all subject to change!

Edited February 6, 2010 by Snowman0697

[the wolfman]

Hey im new to this forum and im interested in learning more about the weather and with the upcoming cold spell will there be any snow in Northamptonshire for the coming week?

[Ben_Cambs]

Hey im new to this forum and im interested in learning more about the weather and with the upcoming cold spell will there be any snow in Northamptonshire for the coming week?

Hi, Welcome to the forum,

This looks like now its going to be a prologned cold spell, as it could last 2 weeks or so according to the latest model output. Im fairly confident especially towards the end of next week that most if not all places in EA and 3 counties will see snow, how much is uncertain at this time

[donna-m]

Afternoon all

2 things that made me laugh this morning

1= Teenage girl walking down road in shorts , okay it seems lovely out today solid blue sky and reaching 10c but shorts??

2= The looks i got in town got after buying the kiddies a sledge(half price)a old couple people even stopped and asked me if i know something they don't!!!

Hopefully my sledge will come into good use this next week and i haven't tempted fate too much .,and if they don't get to use it i'll put it in the loft for many

yrs to come!!