Why Warming Has Halted:

[Methuselah]

Just had a butcher's at the replies to Paul Hudson's blog...Some peeps simply don't understand what 'global' actually means...

[Solar Cycles]

Just had a butcher's at the replies to Paul Hudson's blog...Some peeps simply don't understand what 'global' actually means...

Is this more manipulated data, the NH in general has seen temps below average. So that leaves the SH, must have been some record breaking warmth then!

Just seen Icebergs link, and it does seem to verify! Would like to see all the raw data for this.

Edited February 6, 2010 by Solar Cycles

[Iceberg]

Very tempted to reply to Pingo on the Hudson blog, he gets everywhere, spouting stuff which just isn't correct.

But I will refrain as there are better things in life.

[johnholmes]

Just had a butcher's at the replies to Paul Hudson's blog...Some peeps simply don't understand what 'global' actually means...

yes I've just been looking at it Pete-interesting data from the satellites regarding NH temps in January AS A WHOLE

[Essan]

Is this more manipulated data, the NH in general has seen temps below average.

The NH is more than half of N America and Europe - a lot, lot more. How below average has it been in Canada, Greenland, Africa, the Middle East, Southern parts of Asia, for example?

[Methuselah]

Very tempted to reply to Pingo on the Hudson blog, he gets everywhere, spouting stuff which just isn't correct.

But I will refrain as there are better things in life.

Aye, Pingo does act rather as if he's digging himself the world's deepest latrine...

[Solar Cycles]

Very tempted to reply to Pingo on the Hudson blog, he gets everywhere, spouting stuff which just isn't correct.

But I will refrain as there are better things in life.

Actually Pingo's explanation is very good, this is exactly what as happened in the Arctic this winter. Off course we have had a moderate el-nino also, so combining those two elements, I can see why January has come out so high!

[Methuselah]

yes I've just been looking at it Pete-interesting data from the satellites regarding NH temps in January AS A WHOLE

Aye John. IMO, merely displacing cold air into lower latitudes doesn't add-up to hemispheric cooling...

[Iceberg]

Here's the breakdown.

http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_2.txt

Tropics obviously warm, but also the n.Hemiphere, we've just been very very lucky to have the cold weather..

Actually Pingo's explanation is very good, this is exactly what as happened in the Arctic this winter. Off course we have had a moderate el-nino also, so combining those two elements, I can see why January has come out so high!

The oceans don't work like that and haven't beltched out lots of heat. (You can see that with the temperature distribution), state of the PDO etc.

The Land anomaly for Jan is still 0.975C !.

[Solar Cycles]

Here's the breakdown.

http://www.remss.com...Ocean_v03_2.txt

Tropics obviously warm, but also the n.Hemiphere, we've just been very very lucky to have the cold weather..

The oceans don't work like that and haven't beltched out lots of heat. (You can see that with the temperature distribution), state of the PDO etc.

The Land anomaly for Jan is still 0.975C !.

Oceans store heat do they not, these are the radiators of mother Earth. Still lot's of heat to distribute from the oceans, when you turn a radiator off, it remains warm for some considerable time thereafter, the heat stored in the oceans works on exactly the same principles!

[Methuselah]

Oceans store heat do they not, these are the radiators of mother Earth. Still lot's of heat to distribute from the oceans, when you turn a radiator off, it remains warm for some considerable time thereafter, the heat stored in the oceans works on exactly the same principles!

That would be true if we could somehow turn the oceans off???

What I find interesting, though, is that according to the 'It's the Sun what done it!' people, the Solar min ought to have caused a cool-down - but, so far, it hasn't. Which is why I find the LI Hypothesis so interesting: at the moment, it seems like only the predictions made by the MetO, IPPC and the LI have much chance of being correct??

[Iceberg]

Oceans store heat do they not, these are the radiators of mother Earth. Still lot's of heat to distribute from the oceans, when you turn a radiator off, it remains warm for some considerable time thereafter, the heat stored in the oceans works on exactly the same principles!

Firstly there is no evidence that the oceans have worked like a radiator. Secondly I am happy to proven otherwise, but global ocean heat content was very low not 2 years ago, hence somebody must have turned the radiator back on again in the last 2 years. That somebody certainty wasn't called solar as we have been in a minimum in that time.

If you look at the Argos results at depth they certaintly haven't stored lots of heat either, neither have global ocean SST's which were below average in June 2008.

Essentially we know that the radiator was not hot in 2007/2008 so if the radiator idea works, what on earth turned them back on again in the last 2 years ?

The above is also my biggest unknown with the LI, LI needs the heat to be stored up somewhere to act as the mechanism but where ?.

[The PIT]

That would be true if we could somehow turn the oceans off???

What I find interesting, though, is that according to the 'It's the Sun what done it!' people, the Solar min ought to have caused a cool-down - but, so far, it hasn't. Which is why I find the LI Hypothesis so interesting: at the moment, it seems like only the predictions made by the MetO, IPPC and the LI have much chance of being correct??

Yeh but strange that we have the coldest winter for yonks New York is having it's biggest snow storm ever other places in the states also had there coldest winters for yonks so perhaps the cooling is about too start.

There seems to be more extremes but warmer extreme just seems to be out doing the coldest extreme. Out of interest does anyone know what December was like????

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Perhaps it needs to be renamed local warming, rather than global then. I mean, it works both ways right? If we are looking at 'global' temps then that should be everywhere. Which it appears is not the case.

Of course, there has been alot said about parts of the NH cooling if things got warmer in other areas. Perhaps this is what we are seeing the start of?

[Gray-Wolf]

Surely it's more worrying where it's warm than where it's cold? With most of the polar region well above there averages where can temps now go in the lower latitudes? As we move towards an ice free summer pack the potential for even shorter/warmer Arctic winters increases and so the cold it is able to export south also reduces.

We may already be experiencing the rapid exchanges in air masses that the AGW forced 'bilobal' polar model brings but what when the temps are equalised?

If the cost of UK snow is a limit in winter ice extent across the pole I think I'd rather pass on the opportunity and retain the pack.

[Rob]

I'm waiting for this winter to be blamed on global warming.......

[Devonian]

Perhaps it needs to be renamed local warming, rather than global then. I mean, it works both ways right? If we are looking at 'global' temps then that should be everywhere. Which it appears is not the case.

Why? We both know that the global temperature is an averge. So that means that if the globe is warm, on average some places will still be cooler.

Of course, there has been alot said about parts of the NH cooling if things got warmer in other areas. Perhaps this is what we are seeing the start of?

This January we've seen warm anomalies across much of the globe and cold anomalies in a swath of the globe including the US and western Europe. And where is there the scepticism about January being warm? No prize.

I'm waiting for this winter to be blamed on global warming.......

I think I can make a case for an influence - though I've probably not got the time today. Anyway, if it can be treated seriously and with respect I'll make that case, if I'll be either be ridicued or dismissed I wont.

So, can I have a fair hearing?

[Dartmoor_Matt]

So you agree then Dev? Parts of the NH could cool while other areas warm. This is good news.

[Methuselah]

I'm waiting for this winter to be blamed on global warming.......

That would be as futile as putting the summer of 1976 down to global 'cooling'! Weather and climate are not the same thing...

[Gray-Wolf]

So you agree then Dev? Parts of the NH could cool while other areas warm. This is good news.

As Iceberg pointed out on the other thread Jan is set to be the warmest globally since records began, Dec was one of the warmest ever and the rolling 12month average looks at coming in as the hottest ever recorded.

It reminds me of the tale of the blind men and the elephant......now what bit of the elephant are you calling real DM?

[Methuselah]

So you agree then Dev? Parts of the NH could cool while other areas warm. This is good news.

But, entirely irrelevant nonetheless??

[Devonian]

So you agree then Dev? Parts of the NH could cool while other areas warm.

It has happened. Look at S. Greenland. But, the areas showing a cooling trend are smaller than those not - obviously givne the globe is, on average, warming.

This is good news.

It's the evidence, whether it is good news depends upon your climate preference I think.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

I have no preference, I like both cold climates and hot climates, I enjoy skiing and sand boarding, I enjoy jacuzzis in the snow and parties by the pool.

The point I was making was that if the globe, on average warms enough, and we see enough fresh water going into the north Atlantic then we might see the main driver of our warmer climate (in this area) slow down and evenutally stop, which would lead to our region cooling against the trend. Interesting don't you think that the areas that have been cooler are the areas that on the whole are warmed by the gulf stream.

Anyway, can't stop. I'm off out to buy some olive trees.

[Gray-Wolf]

I have no preference, I like both cold climates and hot climates, I enjoy skiing and sand boarding, I enjoy Jacuzzis in the snow and parties by the pool.

The point I was making was that if the globe, on average warms enough, and we see enough fresh water going into the north Atlantic then we might see the main driver of our warmer climate (in this area) slow down and eventually stop, which would lead to our region cooling against the trend. Interesting don't you think that the areas that have been cooler are the areas that on the whole are warmed by the gulf stream.

Anyway, can't stop. I'm off out to buy some olive trees.

Lacking the fresh water lake that had formed (dammed by the ice) over the 'great lakes' at the end of the last ice age we are poorly positioned to achieve such. Maybe a 'Tunguska' type event (10 times as powerful) over the Greenland Icecap would do but what are the odds of that?. Sure, we may find a slackening of the N.A.D./Gulf Stream but not so much to overcome the warm water migration across the rest of the N. Atlantic basin.

Folk seem to (conveniently) forget that this warming is 'man made' and not 'natural'........

[Dartmoor_Matt]

How could we possibly forget this might be man-made warming when its constantly shoved down our throats.

But GW... I thought that all the ice was going to melt? Or is that not happening now? I can't keep up.

It's a pretty fine balance.