Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Nick L]

Next week definately mostly rainy and the odd bit of sleet and snow. Pathetic tbh and reminds me of the downgrades from recent years. I know it could still change but it looking like game over right now.

I have never understood comments like these, in what way is it pathetic? It was always going to be hit and miss with just a few miles either way making the difference.

Just a case of people getting overexcited about a wintry mix - which is all it was going to be for us anyway.

[Costa Del Fal]

I have never understood comments like these, in what way is it pathetic? It was always going to be hit and miss with just a few miles either way making the difference.

Just a case of people getting overexcited about a wintry mix - which is all it was going to be for us anyway.

It looked a potentially good event imo about 2 days ago now it looks a sleety mess. Id rather spring and summer hurry up now. Had enough of the cold for one winter.

[Nick L]

It looked a potentially good event imo about 2 days ago now it looks a sleety mess. Id rather spring and summer hurry up now. Had enough of the cold for one winter.

See weather09's reply!

Highlighted the key word in that sentence. In my view, this set-up is looking all too marginal, and I think the Met Office have called it a little too early with their advisories. That's not to say things won't change again in our favour, but at the moment it's not looking promising for a lot of regions at lower levels. High ground over northern England and Scotland look the only places to see snowfall at the moment.

The Met Office have put us in their advisories to cover all possible outcomes - too uncertain to be specific yet.

[Snowyowl9]

It looked a potentially good event imo about 2 days ago now it looks a sleety mess. Id rather spring and summer hurry up now. Had enough of the cold for one winter.

The sun will get stronger from now on but I can`t see any warmth coming quickly unlike last year.

May have to wait until April this year.

[MKN]

See weather09's reply!

The Met Office have put us in their advisories to cover all possible outcomes - too uncertain to be specific yet.

You can see from the metoffice early warning that detail is almost non existant. so if there not sure about next week then comments saying game over from people that havent spent there entire life researching weather and now getting paid however much with much greater weather models etc puzzles me. Wait for the countrytracks forecast on sunday, we should have a good idea then which way next weeks heading.

[A.J]

Highlighted the key word in that sentence. In my view, this set-up is looking all too marginal, and I think the Met Office have called it a little too early with their advisories. That's not to say things won't change again in our favour, but at the moment it's not looking promising for a lot of regions at lower levels. High ground over northern England and Scotland look the only places to see snowfall at the moment.

thought I'd highlight that bit, because it hits the nail right on the head, and sums up why I never will contribute to the model discussion thread...Models are calculated by number crunching super computers, and so relies on probability calculations, never 100% accurate, so posts like "Blizzard's" are utterly meaningless (sorry Luke, I'm not being disrespectful, just stating the truth on that particular post )...There is no way to be 100% sure what the weather will do in the next 30 minutes, let alone T96+!!....The models suggest a probabilty of a weather event, but just a probability...We wont know what will happen on tuesday until tuesday....I'm not ranting, just stating a blinding truth that many on this forum cant see

[Costa Del Fal]

Of course there is plenty of time for change but its not surprising to see things have downgraded as usual.

Well the ECM is much better tonight but of course we need to see more tuns first to see if something is developing. My views remain reserved for now.

[Nick L]

Nobody should make any conclusion at all until Sunday. The only conclusion we can draw is that you might as well roll a dice rather than be frustrated by the models at the moment.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

cool, January charts out, some class days

5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 11th 13th 31st, lots of snow around on those days

Edited February 12, 2010 by mark forster 630

[Nick L]

cool, January charts out, some class days

5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 11th 13th 31st, lots of snow around on those days

Indeed, in a future winter where we are plagued with mild muck we will be referring to these charts and wishing for them to return! Ok they didn't deliver masses of snow, but it stuck around for a very long time and was very cold. Hopefully we will get one last hurrah before March 1st.

[jukebox]

Todays ECM 12z pushes the low for next Tuesday ever so slightly east http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm961.gif compared to last night and I think that we need this to keep trending this way if we are to see anything white next week. Dewpoints are ok and so are 850's, dewpoints dont neccesarily need to be below 0 and 850's are low enough to support snow aswell. UKMO fax chart for Tuesday shows http://www.wetterzen...pics/brack2.gif which puts us within 528 dam and shows two fronts pushing across the country with a possible triple point??? further north. One thing to note is that this is a really strange output and not something that you see very often so I think the models are struggling a little with the exact track of the low hence the various forecasts from different agencies. Also the front will have been modified by a cold continent and cold sea when it gets here and at the minute its still all to play for and there really is no reason whatsoever to call it off yet or call a rain/snow fest as a lot can and will change in the next 24 hours or so, further out it doesnt look as if the low will collapse like has been shown for the last few days and could well advect back to the south east and pull in some cold air for next weekend.

Edited February 12, 2010 by jukebox

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Indeed, in a future winter where we are plagued with mild muck we will be referring to these charts and wishing for them to return! Ok they didn't deliver masses of snow, but it stuck around for a very long time and was very cold. Hopefully we will get one last hurrah before March 1st.

yeah not exactly Kent standards but still good, thought i read on here you are in Reading next winter? lots of snow down there most likely, youll be on the SE thread, instead of the snowstarved NW midlands

[jukebox]

Of course there is plenty of time for change but its not surprising to see things have downgraded as usual.

Well the ECM is much better tonight but of course we need to see more tuns first to see if something is developing. My views remain reserved for now.

Out of curiosity whats downgraded???? the models have shown the same now for the last 4 - 7 days and the track of the low for next week has varied across all models though ecm has been fairly consistent to give it credit.

[Nick L]

yeah not exactly Kent standards but still good, thought i read on here you are in Reading next winter? lots of snow down there most likely, youll be on the SE thread, instead of the snowstarved NW midlands

Well it will be either Reading or Norwich (provided I don't have a complete meltdown in my exams!), two places which are quite snow-prone. So yeah, I will become a jammy south-easterner, no doubt my Midlander aura will get rid of any potential snow though!

[Bolton67]

Well it will be either Reading or Norwich (provided I don't have a complete meltdown in my exams!), two places which are quite snow-prone. So yeah, I will become a jammy south-easterner, no doubt my Midlander aura will get rid of any potential snow though!

I bet next winter Norwich and reading will be in a snowshield and Cannock will be buried !!

[grab my graupel]

Evening everyone - will open a new thread shortly

[Nick L]

I bet next winter Norwich and reading will be in a snowshield and Cannock will be buried !!

Don't joke about that!! Reading had a foot of snow this winter, Norwich had a dumping...therefore they will get nothing for the next few years!

[grab my graupel]

Link to the new thread:

Will close this thread in a short while