Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Methuselah]

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[laheymichele]

pic from sunday morning here in stoke-on-trent!!!!

Edited February 2, 2010 by laheymichele

[Costa Del Fal]

Well NMM and NAE Model do suggest a spell of snow for a time tomorrow but the main fun restrcited to the North.

Edited February 2, 2010 by Blizzards

[jukebox]

Latest NAE brings snow risk to a larger part of the midlands

West mids, Staffs,Stoke,Derby etc look more favourable for abit of snow but I would suspect those with a bit of elevation or those who can get the heavier bursts and some evaporative cooling will do ok ?? Dew points look a bit marginal to me but as this chart is for 6pm then temps should start falling as evening falls so this could spring a surprise or two

[Costa Del Fal]

These situations are always hard to predict but they can often bring either dissapointments or surprises though the latter is probably unlikely.

Edited February 2, 2010 by Blizzards

[A.J]

Perhaps an increased chance of moderate bursts of snow on the leading edge of the precip bands for here, but generally for the west Midlands, the further north and west you are, the better chance of seeing snowfall - which could be heavy for a brief time. Again, as I said yesterday, accumulations are highly unlikely for this region though slight accumulations cannot be ruled out across counties such as Staffordshire or Shropshire. A little further south and east the precip shouldn't be as heavy meaning less chance of snowfall. The main risk of snow accumulations will be for north eastern regions of the country as the precip will be alot heavier.

Again, nothing noteworthy.

Agreed....not expecting much here apart from a cold rain

To elaborate further, the earlier the precip arrives, the better it will be for a short transitional spell of snow, after that, dew points and wet bulb temps will rise above 0C and continue rising...That means rain folks!

Edited February 2, 2010 by ajpoolshark

[I remember Atlantic 252]

going to be nothing tomorrow, way too far south, reminds me of the awful day 30th Dec 05, similar setup, saw nothing that day

winter maybe over sadly, but still got hope for a cold spell, northerly 19th-22nd Feb weekend toppler,

[azores92]

Don't think timing is a factor here. The milder airflow is what will cause the dewpoint to rise, but not before some of the precip on the leading edge falls as snow - which will probably be interspersed with rain. Your area and places further north of there are in a favoured spot for any snow that does fall in the west Midlands.

Oh and in response to Mark's comment re the end of winter. The meteorological winter may be over at the end of this month, but opportunities for cold and snowy weather can extend well into March, and perhaps even into the early part of April. At the moment though, we have a somewhat milder outlook for the near future.

true that, but lets be honest, when it snows in april, the majority of the time the snow may lay for a few hours(if that), before the strong april sunshine melts it away. for the near future, i wouldnt be too set on what the models are showing. clearly the signals are confusing, as last night showed a completely different outlook. some of the forecasters are predicting a colder spell for mid month/second half of the month. but to be honest folks, very few can complain. the first half of january gave us a wintry spell proper, and alone beat many of the noughties winters hands down!.

[A.J]

When March arrives, I start looking for potential for thunderstorms rather than snowfall, but was just making a point that this month isn't necessarily the end of further opportunities for cold and snowy weather for the near future. But I think that for the next few days, a milder outlook is likely. Beyond even further is anyone's guess.

Yes, you're right, very few can complain. The latter half of December and a good part of January brought some great weather to the country with alot of days with snowfall - Jan, 5 and Jan, 13 being the best days for this area.

Ah!....remember April 15th last year??....first semi-warm spell of the year (just 2-3 weeks after we had 3 inches of snow)...and we had a lovely early morning thunderstorm that brewed up just south of Brum and drifted NW'wards....Was a very nice 'early morning alarm call'!!....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Ah!....remember April 15th last year??....first semi-warm spell of the year (just 2-3 weeks after we had 3 inches of snow)...and we had a lovely early morning thunderstorm that brewed up just south of Brum and drifted NW'wards....Was a very nice 'early morning alarm call'!!....

yes remember that, but snow really my thing, April 6th 08 great day

like thunderstorms but only wets ground, no evidence or great scenes after it, although the advantage of storms is dont have to hit it direct to see lightning/hear thunder, where as snow if it misses by 2 miles etc you end up with nothing

[Gord]

Nearly every classic winter had its dull forgettable spells....maybe we're just in one now and things will come back again!

This is already a winter we will be referencing back to in future winters, (e.g. 'I see this set up more of a 09/10 than a 90/91'...or 'We haven't seen charts like this since December 2009..and looked what happened then!).

In the days of internet forecasting...a good winter only becomes a good winter if we mention it in a positive light in the future!

As for Spring thunderstorms...thats a whole 2 pay days away yet i reckon!

[cold stoke]

Perhaps a slight risk of heavy snowfall resulting in some small accumulations across the northern half of the Midlands, particuarly towards the north west Midlands. NAE would suggest a short spell of moderate or heavy wet snowfall over counties such as Staffordshire. Further south and the precip will most likely be of rain with perhaps some snow mixed in at times on the leading edge.

what % would you give stoke for snow

[jukebox]

what % would you give stoke for snow

100% chance of you seeing snow but about a <50% chance of it sticking If it does snow and settle it may produce some travel disruption for the evening but it will turn to rain/melt any snow as the warmer sector pushes through. Be a night for fraggling at the streetlights and maybe popping a bag of the white stuff in the freezer till next year as at the moment things dont look to good for a renewed cold spell in the forseeable

[camperstron]

All can say regarding today is: snow my a*se!!!

For us in brum I fear that we will see nowt. Further north of us though are in with more of a chance - but it will not stick.

[Serendipity]

Although the Met Office have extended their weather warnings, warwickshire wasn't included yesterday.

[cyclonic happiness]

Oh god? It's included today though? another snow non-event to look forward to then?

[Nick L]

Snow? Today? Yowm 'avin a larf aint ya?

[Ian Fergusson]

Snow? Today? Yowm 'avin a larf aint ya?

No.

Already 2cm+ wet snow reliably reported over some uplands of Glos. The WBFL is lower than initial NAE expectations and we modified forecasts this morning accordingly to bring the (transient) snow risk further southwards in the Midlands.

Edited February 3, 2010 by Ian Fergusson

[picog]

Started light snow here. 93 asl. Location, south Shropshire. Keep the faith!

[Herefordweather]

2oc here already with light rain.

[Serendipity]

No.

Already 2cm+ wet snow reliably reported over some uplands of Glos. The WBFL is lower than initial NAE expectations and we modified forecasts this morning accordingly to bring the (transient) snow risk further southwards in the Midlands.

Ah thanks Ian, I was wondering what had caused such a relatively late change of thoughts. We've a temp of 1 and a dp of 0.7 so pretty marginal I guess but we'll see! Really appreciate your input on this forum.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Still -2 here and the Frost isn't going anywhere . The band in Northern ireland looks like moving into Northern England and Scotland , the band to the South west hasn't made much progress since midnight . Will anything even make it to the East Midlands. ?

[Nick L]

No.

Already 2cm+ wet snow reliably reported over some uplands of Glos. The WBFL is lower than initial NAE expectations and we modified forecasts this morning accordingly to bring the (transient) snow risk further southwards in the Midlands.

Brilliant, thanks for the update Ian! Just that there doesn't seem to be a fat lot on the radar, although it is definitely cold enough here with temps still below freezing and a DP of -1.3c.

[Serendipity]

I'm right on the edge of the precipitation nothing falling here but temperatures steadily rising, it is now 1.6 with a dp of 1.3 so too far south here for any snow.

I think Birmingham northwards may be interesting though.

Edited to add: DP rising very quickly here, 1.5 now so the warmer front pushing in quite quickly. Am guessing it has hit colder air just north of me hence it stalling and dying out currently? Will maybe re-invigorate as it tries to push north/ north east?

Edited February 3, 2010 by Serendipity

[Nick L]

Flash weather warning out for this afternoon for Shropshire and Staffordshire:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wm/wm_forecast_warnings.html

Very much in line with the NAE showing some fairly heavy snow for the north Midlands. Could be interesting later :o