Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[jukebox]

that chart isnt that good, reminds me of the 20th December, I saw nothing, the showers will move in from cheshire gap, through manchester, and move East into derbyshire, stockport got 8 inches

but a long way off yet, all types are being thrown up currently

Agreed THAT chart is not fantastic but it will move further east and if you check out the source of air and temps that it will pull in then it will be game on. To be honest I,m not sure of the charts from 20th dec but be nice if you could post up for me to have a look later after the mighty kop have beat the gooners lol yeah I know wishful thinking, cheers mate J

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Agreed THAT chart is not fantastic but it will move further east and if you check out the source of air and temps that it will pull in then it will be game on. To be honest I,m not sure of the charts from 20th dec but be nice if you could post up for me to have a look later after the mighty kop have beat the gooners lol yeah I know wishful thinking, cheers mate J

yeah hope everything moves East, youve got elevation advantage I see, 2oth Dec 2009, (midnight) sat night,

21 Dec 2009 see winds too westerly for the showers to get here, saw nothing that night/day either

Edited February 10, 2010 by mark forster 630

[TonyH]

Why was my answer to Eugene's post (and his relevant post) deleted? We were discussing forecasts from a local weather station (Met Office recognised and used) and the forecast for next week, models, along with snow depths across Warwickshire this winter.

Is this not relevant to this thread?

[jukebox]

yeah hope everything moves East, youve got elevation advantage I see, 2oth Dec 2009, (midnight) sat night,

21 Dec 2009 see winds too westerly for the showers to get here, saw nothing that night/day either

I think the ecm chart I posted will be colder than the above charts due to the source of the winds it will pull in and as the continent/sea is very cold then by the time the air gets here it will be modified and hopefully pull a lot more precip in aswell but as you said things can and will change just need to hope they are in our favour Another thing to look for is convection now that the sun is higher and stronger and we still may have a surprise or two left for this week yet as today proved.

[SteveElbows]

Though I will say, today's showers were a lot more potent than I was expecting. Thought moderate snow showers would be the best we'd get from this week, but it turns out I was wrong. Many places across the Midlands (including here) got some heavy or very heavy snow showers accompanied by a gusty wind, creating blizzard-like conditions.

Yeah it never ceases to amaze me how hard it is to predict even an hour ahead sometimes - I went to work around noon, wondering if I might catch a brief light shower today, and three hours later we got walloped with far more than I would have hoped. It didnt look that impressive on the radar either. The BBC managed to get the time of that one almost right, but maybe it was luck.

Edited February 10, 2010 by SteveElbows

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I think the ecm chart I posted will be colder than the above charts due to the source of the winds it will pull in and as the continent/sea is very cold then by the time the air gets here it will be modified and hopefully pull a lot more precip in aswell but as you said things can and will change just need to hope they are in our favour Another thing to look for is convection now that the sun is higher and stronger and we still may have a surprise or two left for this week yet as today proved.

dont think it will be colder than 20/21 Dec, frost stayed all day, high of 1C here, dry and sunny, but yeah agree about convection due to stronger sun,

february never as cold as Dec here, (when cold synoptics in place) today had 4.7C max, ppl only say february is colder because its the least Atlantic dominated of the 3 winter months normally, but this year Dec and Jan been cold and blocked, and so i think feb will be the mildest month this winter as its looking blocked as well

Edited February 10, 2010 by mark forster 630

[MKN]

we need the low to run down the north sea. then we have a good chance of some frontal snowfall with troughs following in behind. add to that added convection due to the slightly stronger sun and it could possibly be a good event. if its right over us we will be in the part of the low that tends to have no precip, a bit like being in the eye of the storm.

Anyway as to tonight. Grimbsy has a shower with the midlands name on it

[Snowyowl9]

dont think it will be colder than 20/21 Dec, frost stayed all day, high of 1C here, dry and sunny, but yeah agree about convection due to stronger sun,

february never as cold as Dec here, (when cold synoptics in place) today had 4.7C max, ppl only say february is colder because its the least Atlantic dominated of the 3 winter months normally, but this year Dec and Jan been cold and blocked, and so i think feb will be the mildest month this winter as its looking blocked as well

So far this feb is currently colder than december which the first half was mostly mild.

February is normally the most snowiest month of the year March is a close 2nd in recent years.

Cold tonight -2.8c already.

[loopydreamer]

we need the low to run down the north sea. then we have a good chance of some frontal snowfall with troughs following in behind. add to that added convection due to the slightly stronger sun and it could possibly be a good event. if its right over us we will be in the part of the low that tends to have no precip, a bit like being in the eye of the storm.

Anyway as to tonight. Grimbsy has a shower with the midlands name on it

yeay! im glad someone else has noticed that we have some beefy showers coming in again! hope some reach birmingham way

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

yeay! im glad someone else has noticed that we have some beefy showers coming in again! hope some reach birmingham way

Yea iv noticed them , they'r in the right place to hit the b'ham area , depends on how much intensity they can maintain ,also have a look wots brewing in the north sea . Its developing on its northern edge , give ones a few supprises i think , outside kent that is .

[Hailsowen]

They'll need to be nearer to Hull for the path to me, but I fear they'll peter out before they reach Brum.

[loopydreamer]

Yea iv noticed them , they'r in the right place to hit the b'ham area , depends on how much intensity they can maintain ,also have a look wots brewing in the north sea . Its developing on its northern edge , give ones a few supprises i think , outside kent that is .

yea i keep checking that out! mum and dad live in tunbridge wells! thought they might do well from this but they r in n/w kent i think

[Gord]

I'm also watching that new batch of showers over Lincolnshire.

I'll watch them go further than the A1 then decide if i should go to bed or wait a little while!

Would be nice if the could get here as the conditions are perfect for snow to settle right now. Sadly i also expect them to fizzle out though.

Edited February 10, 2010 by Gord

[loopydreamer]

well...i havent checked out the lincolnshire batch but im sure those showers coming down from hull way are intensifying as they come inland

I'm also watching that new batch of showers over Lincolnshire.

I'll watch them go further than the A1 then decide if i should go to bed or wait a little while!

Would be nice if the could get here as the conditions are perfect for snow to settle right now. Sadly i also expect them to fizzle out though.

so do u think there is a possibility that they can reach west midlands? i think that wil go too far south of us

Edited February 10, 2010 by loopydreamer

[Gord]

I think there is a possibility they'll hit the west midlands...they're now passing the M1. You could be right, they may slip south of us.

Problem is, in this set up, the showers can fizzle just like that without warning. I'll need to see the north east sky turn ornage before i'm convinced!

Edited February 10, 2010 by Gord

[loopydreamer]

gord

are me and u the only ones here! where is everyone?

[Serendipity]

I'm here but I think they'll die out before reaching us to be honest...

[Hailsowen]

Well, the showers are growing in area, but decreasing in intensity... usually a bad sign...?

As much as I think it isn't, it's business time.

[Gord]

The little shower noth of Corby appears to have died...so the ones further north may be about to do the same. Like i say, hope not...as they are on track for us and conditions are good for snow to settle.

Crunch time for their survival is around about now!

[Hailsowen]

I reckon a very light sprinkling over Birmingham is more likely at the moment, but stranger things have happened!

[Gord]

I agree with you...dusting at best. But you never know what might happen through the night. (And if you had offered a dusting on Monday for the week ahead i'd have taken it seeing how bleak things were looking!)

One thing is for sure...it's going to be an icy commute in the morning!

Edit: Sorry folks....game over. They're dying quite quickly now.

Ah well...nice to have a little bit of extra interest!

Edited February 10, 2010 by Gord

[loopydreamer]

gahhhh!

[Hailsowen]

Erm... the light showers appear to be strengthening again slightly. Goodness knows what will happen.

[SteveElbows]

Well the remnants of one of those showers passed over me, produced nothing that I could see for most of it, got bored with lamppost checking after a while but just had a final quick look and there were a few flakes blowing around.

[andy_leics22]

Hmmm, just heard a pattering against the window that sounded like hail, I looked out and it came down in moderate graupel for 5 minutes leaving a nice white dusting on all surfaces The graupel is like polystyrene balls. Hasn't melted at all, looks like there could be a few more showers through the night, this is a lot better than I expected from tonight.