Model Output Discussion:

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel...tations/15h.htm

all i say things could get very interesting fron 10 feb to the 13 it might be able to drag me away from face book!!

Edited February 6, 2010 by tinybill

[kold weather]

Going to close this one soon!

The models still looking very good today, the idea of tyhe high pressure being further south slowly getting more support though today...

[len]

The solar-driven-inland snow-showers are nice, but are equally quickly melted & evaporated by the sun except for when they accur towards sunset. Often see this late Feb/March

[LomondSnowstorm]

im not sure this is the case..the sun does not have huge strength in Feb..plus the colder the airmass the less moisture..plus as the sea is colder the less convective showers will be produced than if the sea was warmer..surely the models would pick up on this potential if it were the case??..i always thought these sun driven shower activities occurred in march and april usually with unstable north westly airflows?..maybe im completely wrong?

I think the models have a genuine problem with North Sea convection showers, and tend not to pick them up, at least all the medium range models such as the GFS and UKMO. The NMM is the most reliable tool as well as the radar, but also the skew-t should be taken into account as John Holmes says.LS