Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

[grab my graupel]

Please continue

[Cheese Rice]

Might as well repost my forecast .

Snow Forecast for next week-

Monday- Starting of on a wet note, around 9am a band of rain sleet and snow will push south, the precipitation will start of as rain and rapidly turn to snow throughout late morning as the cold air undercuts the front. By afternoon most inland areas will see snow, the closer to the coast you are the more likely you will see rain or a wintry mixture. The snow may be heavy at times with light-moderate accumulations in places, around 1-3cm for low ground and 3-5cm for high ground (150m+), pennines are likely to see relatively deep snow 10cm+. The band of sleet and snow will move slowly south-wards during the afternoon leaving all areas dry by Evening.

Warning map

Red- Pennines, Accumulations of 10cm+ possible, mostly on the hills.

Purple- 1-3cm for Low ground and 3-5cm for high ground (150m+)

Yellow- 0-1cm of snow, a wintry mixture of rain and sleet, temporary accumulations of 1cm possible.

Tuesday- Wintry showers for all areas with snow over high ground, showers merging together to give longer spells of sleet or snow. Temporary accumulations of 1-2cm likely for inland areas, closer to the coast mostly rain and sleet with snow at times, however there is in an increased likely-hood of snow near the coast compared to Monday.

Red- Pennines, Accumulations of 3-5cm likely

Purple- 1-2cm for low ground, 2-3cm for high ground

Yellow- Rain sleet and snow, temporary accumulations possible at times

Edited February 14, 2010 by 10123

[grab my graupel]

Nice looking NMM this morning, which has snow arriving during the early hours of Monday

[Lewis]

Good morning GMG and fellow weather buffs

Brian, good spot mate!! Just looked at the nmm, and from just after midnight tonight, through too 5-6am tomorrow, the precipitation falling out the sky according to the 00z will be of snow. East yorkshire and N Yorkshire will see snow.

The 0c isotherm is 100m for most of the time, before going to 200m. The dews are fine, and the 850's are fine.

If the precipitation is heavy enough there's a good chance of East Yorkshire (who stays onto the lower isotherms and dew points) getting a nice covering before it turns back to rain, this is just that start of things and a bonus.

Brian, your in prime position to begin with as the precipitation is likely to be heavier for your neck of the woods.

I'm off for a driving lesson now, i'm doing junctions today

Doing ok though, according to my instructor my breaking is a breath of fresh air, and my leg work switching from clutch to acceleration (changing gears) flow lovely LOL. I should be driving within 2-3 weeks so the first thing i'll do is going storm/snow/what ever weather chasing

talk later,

I forgot to say that Lincs look very good too, sorry i forgot lol

[disco-barry]

Snow on the cards then, What a beautiful morning i've woken up to today...lovely clear blue skys.

[Harsh Climate]

Looking very good for a covering of snow at some point pretty much across the whole region! My only exception will probably be within 15-20 miles of the coast were any accumulation will either be slushy/very temporary or both...

The reason I say this is, lets say I just go by the latest gfs run, theres no real difference in airmass at any time across the region. Were mostly in -5/-6hpa air west to east/south to north....

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn482.png

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn722.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1082.png (Actually looking at this chart, later on wednesday things may become too marginal for south yorkshire,so late wednesday the rule should aply to the further north you are the better.)

So with no real mild sector/cold sector affecting one part of the region and not the uva at any time, there should be no bias in whose more favoured for snow due to temperature.. Obviously high ground should do better, but things will still be interesting on lower ground....

Heres my early snowfall estimations:

0-200ft 1-5cm

250-550ft 3-8cm

600-900ft 5-10cm

1000ft+ 10-15cm

Amounts probably lower in south yorkshire. And in all parts away from higher ground there will be some thawing inbetween precipitation. I think the window for snow opens late monday night

EDIT: The reason I say less likely nearer the coast is obviously due to the offshore influences just making things too marginal..

Edited February 14, 2010 by Jed Bickerdike

[Lincs Observation]

been bleeding raining here all morning, clear now...roll on spring im feeling a little fed up with everywhere been like the somme.

LO

[Lewis]

Looking very good for a covering of snow at some point pretty much across the whole region! My only exception will probably be within 15-20 miles of the coast were any accumulation will either be slushy/very temporary or both...

The reason I say this is, lets say I just go by the latest gfs run, theres no real difference in airmass at any time across the region. Were mostly in -5/-6hpa air west to east/south to north....

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn482.png

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn722.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1082.png (Actually looking at this chart, later on wednesday things may become too marginal for south yorkshire,so late wednesday the rule should aply to the further north you are the better.)

So with no real mild sector/cold sector affecting one part of the region and not the uva at any time, there should be no bias in whose more favoured for snow due to temperature.. Obviously high ground should do better, but things will still be interesting on lower ground....

Heres my early snowfall estimations:

0-200ft 1-5cm

250-550ft 3-8cm

600-900ft 5-10cm

1000ft+ 10-15cm

Amounts probably lower in south yorkshire. And in all parts away from higher ground there will be some thawing inbetween precipitation. I think the window for snow opens late monday night

EDIT: The reason I say less likely nearer the coast is obviously due to the offshore influences just making things too marginal..

Only thing about that i can question is 15-20 miles nearer the coast.

Away from the immediate coast areas will be fine. If you look at the direction of the flow, it's not coming off the N Sea... So they will be no modified air. Wind streams/direction is WSW, which is perfect....

Other than that i agree, good post.

[galba]

Nice looking NMM this morning, which has snow arriving during the early hours of Monday

According to NW radar the advance party of that ppn is already into Lancashire - snow falling over on the high ground east of Lancaster.

We have two 5-day forecasts from the BBC today, one at 1150 and another at 1850, usually given by different forecasters.

[Harsh Climate]

Only thing about that i can question is 15-20 miles nearer the coast.

Away from the immediate coast areas will be fine. If you look at the direction of the flow, it's not coming off the N Sea... So they will be no modified air. Wind streams/direction is WSW, which is perfect....

Other than that i agree, good post.

Thanx Lewis,

Hmm might have overdone it a little, guess we'll have to wait and see

[Lewis]

Thanx Lewis,

Hmm might have overdone it a little, guess we'll have to wait and see

DW mate, you'll probably find we are both correct, with areas like 10 mile from the coast ok, anything closer not haha.

It's so weird how things chop and change, i would say this coming weeks events are no where near as marginal than the other weeks were we all get a good cm or 2 at least.

Looking good i must say

[Cheese Rice]

Am really happy with the GFS output, I think all of Yorkshire is inline for some heavy snowfall, for low ground as well. The only problem is the snow will melt everyday as it wont be one of those easterly blasts with sub zero day time temps and the sun is a little bit stronger so anything under around 4cm is likely to fully melt in the sun, if we can get some deep snow (5cm+) then I would of thought it will stick around in the day time.

Edited February 14, 2010 by 10123

[gobbyash]

Why has the Met Office removed it's weather warnings for Yorkshire if we are going to get snow?

[Lewis]

They have offically lost the bloody plot!

[Harsh Climate]

DW mate, you'll probably find we are both correct, with areas like 10 mile from the coast ok, anything closer not haha.

It's so weird how things chop and change, i would say this coming weeks events are no where near as marginal than the other weeks were we all get a good cm or 2 at least.

Looking good i must say

Ye, earlier on this winter Iv recieved snow with 529-535 dam air, so next week being below the magic 528dam, things are looking good!

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FI I know but wouldnt this be sweeeeeeeet...

http://charts.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png

http://charts.netwea.../171/ukprec.png

http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

http://charts.netwea...1/ukmaxtemp.png

http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

Classic low pressure pushing in with rain/sleet turning to heavy snow on its northern edge, before eventually pulling away to leave a cold north easterly

Edited February 14, 2010 by Jed Bickerdike

[PMPhotography]

Only thing about that i can question is 15-20 miles nearer the coast.

Away from the immediate coast areas will be fine. If you look at the direction of the flow, it's not coming off the N Sea... So they will be no modified air. Wind streams/direction is WSW, which is perfect....

Other than that i agree, good post.

I thought the same Re 10123's post, I remember last time (a couple of weeks ago) when we had the frontal snow from the SW, everyone was saying the coast will miss out but it snowed then, fair enough there wasn't much in the end but it was all snow!

Like Lewis mentioned, there is no air modification from the north sea so we have as much chance as those inland, The only main problem for us coasties is elevation which admittedly may play a small part.

Should be an interesting week!

[Sammy21]

The metoffice weather warnings can all change again at what they were before and it can still snow.

[grab my graupel]

Temps of -0.6c with a Dewpoint of -2c here, so looking good for some wintryness when the precipitation arrives :lol:

[Craigers]

going to be lil snow at 7am! spine of yorkshire! with east of yorkshire best temps but lighter ppn! going to check in morning thats for sure! only talking 1-3cm though

[reef]

Its not looking great. The temperature is rising rapidly now. We had a min just after 11pm of -0.2C and now its already 0.4C. The dewpoint is still -0.7C but thats rising even faster (was -1.6C before).

[Craigers]

Its not looking great. The temperature is rising rapidly now. We had a min just after 11pm of -0.2C and now its already 0.4C. The dewpoint is still -0.7C but thats rising even faster (was -1.6C before).

NMM charts says different but we shall see

[grab my graupel]

Still in good shape here, with temp of -1.2c and Dew point of -2c

Have a nice frost beginning to form under clear skies.

[Craigers]

Still in good shape here, with temp of -1.2c and Dew point of -2c

Have a nice frost beginning to form under clear skies.

my dew and temp keeps dropping so looking good for here! you seen NMM chart mate? if that was right im sure some places will see 1-2cm around 7-8am?

[PMPhotography]

Could happen yet!

I'm amazed at the innaccuracy of the BBC's temp forecast. It's supposed to be 4C here at 09.00 yet it's 0.6C!

How can they attempt to forecast rain, sleet, snow when they can't get the current temps right?

It's obviously forecaster biased though as the Metoffice have us down for 1C and they supply the data to BBC.

If MO's forecast pulls off we have light snow forecast all day then heavy snow showers tonight which is somewhat of an upgrade!

Dew point currently -1.7C.

Should be interesting watching today! Iv'e one last snowy scene I want to photograph before this winters done so fingers crossed!

[Cal]

Very light snow here, very surprised as well .