South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[westysweather]

i like the look of that chart!!!! i keep hearing we do well out of a channel low for snow, can someone be so kind too just clarify exactly what they mean by this?

[Andy Bown]

I notice that the early warning for snow tomorrow has been extended to Gloucestershire. Could be an interesting day!

I wouldn't be surprised to see the snowfall extend further Southwards than Gloucs/N.Wilts, the temp has dropped 3.2c in the last few hours (3.6C now) with a heavy burst of rain and with clearing skies it will only drop further so, when the band returns from the S/SE overnight, wintriness is very possible.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

i like the look of that chart!!!! i keep hearing we do well out of a channel low for snow, can someone be so kind too just clarify exactly what they mean by this?

A channel low that moves along the N'ern coast of France will have easterly winds along its northern edge (as lows rotate anti clockwise in this hempisphere) and being a low have greater chance of PPN, so in winter, with cold in place already you get some nice snowfall.

My max today was 3.9C and its currently 0.9C (as soon as the rain stopped, the clouds cleared the temp just dropped away)

Edited February 16, 2010 by Dartmoor_Matt

[Ian Fergusson]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the snowfall extend further Southwards than Gloucs/N.Wilts, the temp has dropped 3.2c in the last few hours (3.6C now) with a heavy burst of rain and with clearing skies it will only drop further so, when the band returns from the S/SE overnight, wintriness is very possible.

East Cotswolds is our principal area of interest and geographically forms the rationale for extending the warning into Glos (WBFL's readily expected to fell down through 300m and snow potential aided by evaporational cooling; we're expecting for a few cm's to at settle on cars and grass (unlikely on roads to any great degree) somewhere in a swathe from north Chilterns across to east Cotswolds and environs....I do stress error margin E-W is approx 50+ miles.

Thursday daytime also has some transient wet snow potential across parts of the SW / West Country based on latest NAE.

Ian.

[kold weather]

Yeah Ian it does look quite interesting, the 12z NAE puts the SW on the northern side of the low which in this evolution will be a good spot to be. As you say it may not last that long in the SW as the LP lifts up somewhat over the south of England as it tracks ENE/NE.

I'd imagine the moors will do very well in such a set-up, as that will get snow lasting for longer given the higher ground....

Tomorrow could be interesting though that raqther depends on the front staying strong which as I've said countless times its very much 50-50 as to whether that actually occurs IMO, as you say Ian higher ground does look very interesting though any temp profiles by the time the front reaches this region it could be marginal, hence the bigger risk for places higher up...

The strength of the front will be key I suspect...as I said typically they fizzle in such evolutions but clearly the models are seeing strengthening of the front and thus it does need watching.

[SteveB]

Interesting times ahead that's for sure.

I am sure you guy's up on Dartmoor & Mendips will see snow.

[Ian Fergusson]

I've checked our latest NAE snow prog / areal spread for tonight and the essential thrust for our region is East Glos down into parts of north Wilts and B&NES; essentially 1-2cm fairly widely signalled in these areas with spot 4cm totals in NE Glos.

However, to reiterate the views of the UKMO Chief Forecaster this evening:

"Timings of onset of snow remain highly dependent on precip rates, and eventual position of frontal zone is also in question. However, this is not expected to be a repeat of the type of snow events earlier this winter, with onset time and pre-existing conditions likely to generally limit the extent to which problems develop on road network."

So hopefully nothing too bad / dramatic from this one...

Edited February 16, 2010 by Ian Fergusson

[snowking]

Well im up recording in the Forrest Of Dean tomorrow from about 1ish so hopefully i'll be able to report back to you with a few snowy scenes

Thursday very much looking interesting - looks as though we could even see some wet snow down towards the 50-100m asl mark

SK

[Ian Fergusson]

Well im up recording in the Forrest Of Dean tomorrow from about 1ish so hopefully i'll be able to report back to you with a few snowy scenes

Thursday very much looking interesting - looks as though we could even see some wet snow down towards the 50-100m asl mark

SK

Maybe, albeit the latest NAE / GM variance across the SW on Thursday has led to this note of caution from UKMO:

"....there are marked differences between the NAE at 12Z Thursday (which has sig snow SW England) and the GM (which has mostly rain). Confidence is thus not high enough for an advisory....."

Tomorrow's NAE runs will pin it down one way or another and may re-affirm the snow potential.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Snow you say... what a turn up :lol:

I'm just off to tennis, and the temp is hovering around freezing... which might make the roads interesting on the way home after all the rain today.

Ian, look foward to reading what you have to type tomorrow regarding Thursday, as up to now its been shown as heavy rain from the Beeb.

[egret]

The dilemmas we gardeners face eh. Even a mature Apricot in an unheated but south facing greenhouse has suffered frost damage this year.

Roll on Spring.

Dilemmas - now you mention my favourites. I really love them too and look at them each spring morning when they come into bloom. They seem to flower ever earlier each year, but still give that wonderful feeling of tranquility when they are finally over.

[Nights King]

interesting for tomoro with possible snow... The ground temps should be fairly low when this ppn moves in so if it fell as snow it could settle i would have thought.

current temps are 0.1c

shame i have to work in lowland bristol though.

Edited February 16, 2010 by mullender83

[dancing daisy]

Every time I arrange to go to Bristol it snows! I give up!

It is very foggy here.

[Nights King]

nice frost setting in here.

Temp is -0.9c

[westysweather]

thanks matt for that explanation, nice and simple does it nicely!

[Nights King]

Strange how quiet it is in here considering the possible snow prospects over the next 2/3 days?

temperature -1.6c I think i may be up early for work just to have a quick look at radar ect before i set off.

[03jtrickey]

Sod's law the snow comes back just when you don't want it! Considering I have been planning to cycle off tomorrow, you can almost guarantee we will have a good fall

[Dartmoor_Matt]

-1C and misty playing tennis, not fun, but some good matches.

-2.3C up here and clear, lovely view of the stars tonight, very impressive show... the joy of no light pollution.

[MartUK]

Evening all ..how's things going..any snow for us in Cornwall or are we going to miss it?

[Bristawl Si]

Strange how quiet it is in here considering the possible snow prospects over the next 2/3 days?

temperature -1.6c I think i may be up early for work just to have a quick look at radar ect before i set off.

Because M, even if we got snow tom morn it'll be so marginal, it will be wet stuff that will melt straight away at low levels. You or our firends in the Cotswolds may fare better.

I'm not one for 'late snow' because temps just feel raw rather than freezer-like, a la early jan. For us in the west snow in late Feb/March tends to be short lived and messy, unless one has elevation....like you, Dartmoor Matt or those in the Cotswolds. 'Late Feb 78' type blizzards are v.rare, even 'back in the day' for us.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

It's not really 'late' though is it? It's only Feb, which is typically our coldest month and the one we get the most snow in, although this year has altered things a little with snow in December and even more in January.

I agree though, this time around, the further south the more transient it might be, whether it turns to rain remains to be seen. Assuming it comes off at all that it

[snowking]

Keep an eye on the 18z NAE - precip much further NW at +18

This could bode well for any of our snow-loving welsh neighbours too

SK

[03jtrickey]

Yes, and on Thursday the NAE has a fat 22mm over us. 22mm of what?

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/16/basis18/ukuk/rsum/10021818_1618.gif

[Bristawl Si]

It's not really 'late' though is it? It's only Feb, which is typically our coldest month and the one we get the most snow in, although this year has altered things a little with snow in December and even more in January.

I agree though, this time around, the further south the more transient it might be, whether it turns to rain remains to be seen. Assuming it comes off at all that it

The best winters for snow and cold in my lifetime though Matt have been in Dec or mainly January - 78/79, 81/82, 87. I don't buy this February stuff. Sorry

[alijoe]

Keep an eye on the 18z NAE - precip much further NW at +18

This could bode well for any of our snow-loving welsh neighbours too

SK

I like the sound of this lol. This last couple of weeks with all the Will it?,,won't it? has wore me out and have felt like a constant rollercoaster. I have been very level headed this week though and try not to get excited at all.... but DEEP down inside, I am just a big kid. Fingers crossed for us all who like the white stuff but if it don't happen then I look forward to the bbq's and picnics soon.