South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[Higher Ground]

What does BL stand for please?

Maybe boundary layer?

[kumquat]

Hi Monkey, if it's what I saw on this morning's BBC graphics I think I noticed 14:00.

[BristolBaggie]

Actually - let me just offer a major change of NAE emphasis tomorrow - new run offers 10-20cm snow potential in a band from SE Wales across to Lincs (including Glos) and clearly has makings of a high profile event; however this major change from last NAE prog is noteworthy (it's because new run wants to depress the BL temp's further tonight).... next run awaited before UKMO decides whether to go with early warning over and above current advisory.

Ian do you think Bristol could be effected ?

[monkeyuk]

Hi Monkey, if it's what I saw on this morning's BBC graphics I think I noticed 14:00.

Thanks Kumquat. Just looked at the bbc weather map for Cheltenham and the snow seems to stick around most of the day :unsure:

[Lynxus]

Sleeting here.

I cant see much of a major event happening over the next few days like the meto say.

But would be nice if it did.

[Nights King]

So more snow for midlands and glouc but a downgrade for bristol, bath and somerset?

here we go again i can here the term M4 corridor...

[monkeyuk]

Sleeting here.

I cant see much of a major event happening over the next few days like the meto say.

But would be nice if it did.

Lynxus,

It will be interesting to see how the metoffice look at the latest models as Ian has already mentioned. Could be a snow day tomorrow? :unsure:

[03jtrickey]

24mm of something within the next 48 hours, according to latest NAE. Certainly has the potential to be very serious if it does fall as snow. Waiting for the precip type to update on the NAE. If it is showing snow I wouldn't be surprised if the Met Office upgrades the warnings.

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/17/basis06/ukuk/rsum/10021906_1706.gif

[kumquat]

06z GFS seem quite keen on this idea too. Edit: sorry can't post the frame in work .

Edited February 17, 2010 by kumquat

[Ian Fergusson]

Maybe boundary layer?

So sorry for that - yes, boundary layer!! Apols for acronyms!!

Just seen latest modified NAE issued 10 mins ago - - same story for Thurs; slightly less bullish on totals but theme sufficiently bothersome that I understand UKMO will shortly upgrade (this morning) to early warning. I guess Glos could be included but it might be a tad to the north - we shall see.

I have just updated my blog with initial thoughts / details / graphic.

Edited February 17, 2010 by Ian Fergusson

[Wilxy]

I would love to see some more snow before winter ends would just show how amazing this winter has been. Bit of sleet this morning hope its snow tho tomorrow.

[Nights King]

So sorry for that - yes, boundary layer!! Apols for acronyms!!

Just seen latest modified NAE issued 10 mins ago - - same story for Thurs; slightly less bullish on totals but theme sufficiently bothersome that I understand UKMO will shortly upgrade (this morning) to early warning. I guess Glos could be included but it might be a tad to the north - we shall see.

I have just updated my blog with initial thoughts / details / graphic.

Its going to be a close call then again! I shall look forward to further updates this evening to see if there is a "real" threat for our region. I had to scrape a layer of slushy snow of car this morning but it was very limited to the cars and abit on grass when i left for work.

[03jtrickey]

Warnings upgraded!

http://metoffice.com/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

[slb97]

Well I'm pleasantly surprised to have beautiful blue skies and sunshine instead of the heavy rain that was forecast (had enough of that yesterday!) I might not have snow prospects but I'm going to take advantage of living on the coast and go for a walk along the seafront

[BristolBlizzard]

Warnings upgraded!

http://metoffice.com/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

things looking a bit more snowy for thursday

[snowking]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs303.gif

GFS 6z takes the precip a lot further south than the 6z NAE - i personally would punt for something of an in-between type scenario. I think once the early warnings are superseeded by flash warnings its likely to move the warning area a tad further south. Still we shall see

Tomorrow will, once more, be all down to intensity if the 6z GFS is right, with DP's the wrong side of marginal, but as Ian mentions in his blog, evaporative cooling bringing the 0c level right down towards the surface.

Interestingly NAE has much lower Dew Points

Taking a quick look at the NW Extra NMM model, not really much on offer from the 0z run. Precip well to the south, temps and dews a little the wrong side of marginal, and between a 20-60% risk of snow even falling

Its going to go to the wire. Hopefully Ian has a day off today or he's going to have a major headache forecasting this one

SK

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Morning all, was snowing at home when I left for work which gradually became sleet as I got further down, and here it was just horrible cold heavy rain, will be interesting to see what happens at home though.

More akin to Vancouver than Devon at the moment

[Schmac]

Warnings upgraded!

http://metoffice.com...ings.html?day=2

Nice!!!

[Iceberg]

NAE is responding to todays front moving further north quicker, this allows the colder DP's effecting the BL ready for tomorrows front, particularly for gloucestershire, which instead of having rain followed by snow as the uncut kicks in, has snow followed by snow on higher ground.

The uncut looks like kicking in a bit earlier for more southern areas hence the METO warnings of Rain turning to snow for Somerset and Wiltshire for tomorrow.

It would be interesting to see what the 3hrly UKV makes of this on it's 09Z as the NAE was probably not progressive enough with todays front, the 12Z might increase the chances further and push the snow slightly further south.

However after saying all of the above NAE 06Z is still underestimating DP's IMO, a quick look shows DP's aroudn 4C for a big chunk of the SW, isolated 2C in places such as Bristol and Bournemouth, however NAE 06Z maxes out DP's at 2C which is probably 1C or 2C lower than what they really are.

I've got a feeling that the METO models are overplaying the snow angle and will continue to do so, but the regions of possibility remain, pretty much as the METO advisories state.

[Schmac]

NAE is responding to todays front moving further north quicker, this allows the colder DP's effecting the BL ready for tomorrows front, particularly for gloucestershire, which instead of having rain followed by snow as the uncut kicks in, has snow followed by snow on higher ground.

The uncut looks like kicking in a bit earlier for more southern areas hence the METO warnings of Rain turning to snow for Somerset and Wiltshire for tomorrow.

It would be interesting to see what the 3hrly UKV makes of this on it's 09Z as the NAE was probably not progressive enough with todays front, the 12Z might increase the chances further and push the snow slightly further south.

However after saying all of the above NAE 06Z is still underestimating DP's IMO, a quick look shows DP's aroudn 4C for a big chunk of the SW, isolated 2C in places such as Bristol and Bournemouth, however NAE 06Z maxes out DP's at 2C which is probably 1C or 2C lower than what they really are.

I've got a feeling that the METO models are overplaying the snow angle and will continue to do so, but the regions of possibility remain, pretty much as the METO advisories state.

Cheers for that Iceberg!

Which is the best site for viewing the NAE charts?

Thanks.

[Nights King]

NAE is responding to todays front moving further north quicker, this allows the colder DP's effecting the BL ready for tomorrows front, particularly for gloucestershire, which instead of having rain followed by snow as the uncut kicks in, has snow followed by snow on higher ground.

The uncut looks like kicking in a bit earlier for more southern areas hence the METO warnings of Rain turning to snow for Somerset and Wiltshire for tomorrow.

It would be interesting to see what the 3hrly UKV makes of this on it's 09Z as the NAE was probably not progressive enough with todays front, the 12Z might increase the chances further and push the snow slightly further south.

However after saying all of the above NAE 06Z is still underestimating DP's IMO, a quick look shows DP's aroudn 4C for a big chunk of the SW, isolated 2C in places such as Bristol and Bournemouth, however NAE 06Z maxes out DP's at 2C which is probably 1C or 2C lower than what they really are.

I've got a feeling that the METO models are overplaying the snow angle and will continue to do so, but the regions of possibility remain, pretty much as the METO advisories state.

Going to be an interesting now cast event i feel tomoro although id say settling snow could be reserved for high ground above 100m but a shift slightly further south would help our region to be on right side of marginal. This morning was a case of slightly on wrong side with very wet snow up over the hills which isnt really sticking.

roll on this evenings outputs. Just cold rain here on edge of bristol now with the occasional burst of sleet.

[Lynxus]

So,

Let me get this right?

Snowmegeddon tomorrow?

[monkeyuk]

So,

Let me get this right?

Snowmegeddon tomorrow?

or rainmegeddon

[Nights King]

So,

Let me get this right?

Snowmegeddon tomorrow?

Looks very possible but i am not convinced just yet.

either be or it could just be

[Schmac]

Looks very possible but i am not convinced just yet.

either be or it could just be

Well, here's hoping it's !!

A couple of days ago, it seemed that any real snow risk was reserved for anywhere North of the North Midlands (with a slight chance of us in the South seeing anything white).

This has been slipping further and further South with each passing day and now we've got a yellow (orange for Bath & Bristol) warning out on the MetO website...

Will be interesting to see the forecasts/model outputs later this afternoon and this evening!