Scottish Cold Spell Discussion

[Norrance]

Could be right on the margin JB and could be the traditional Edinburgh split. Rain/sleet Leith/Granton... Snow Meadows/Morningside/Craighlockhart/Liberton etc

Worst case (if it comes at all) I'm only a 44 bus ride from Leith to the higher snowier south-west side of town.

If we're not blowing an ENE gale sourcing nothing other than maritime 3C air temps and +0C dew points (and assuming we have at least -5c upper cold) then I think we have a shot at something happening, which is all you can ever ask for really...

Same as yourself, fingers crossed !

Edit: just seen Joe Shmoes post. Agree with the higher parts/south-west of town being favoured. Prepared to stick my neck out on a pure hunch that it'd be more widespread city-wide. Another plus, the ground is frozen hard which always help the damn stuff to stick to begin with. If theres sufficient intensity in the precipitation then could well be a covering. If it just snitters a bit though it'll be the usual damp squib.

Possibly the same up here with the higher North / North West parts of the Dundee getting snow while The City Centre and Broughty Ferry get rain. The results here have been varied with similar set ups in the past sometimes giving snow but also sometimes cold rain or sleet coming in off the North Sea.

[LadyPakal]

Some useless factoids for the day:

Mean temp in the last 24 hours:

Glasgow Bishopton: -1.7ºC

Leuchars: -2.2ºC

Aviemore: -9.9ºC

(I suspect the mean temp for the last 5-7 days across most of Scotland is below 0ºC which is pretty impressive for the third week of February)

Mean temp here for the last 7 days is -1.6.

Mean low: -6.1

Mean high: 1.7

Serious ice on the river now.

[scott_anthony_glasgow]

I think the heavier stuff is going to fall between 00z and 03z over central parts of northern england. The pennines should get most snow, then high ground in northumberland/cumbria (obviously less the lower down you are) before fizzling out before it reaches scotland..

Apart from above 250 metres I cant see places like glasgow/edingburgh getting snow that will keep building wed through to saturday, I think there will be a decent covering (5-7cm) at some point but it should thaw through the day.

Apart from the highlands/southern uplands which will obviously get lots of snow (in excess of 9 inches) I would expect avemore to get the lion share of the snow, amazing how much snow aviemore gets considering its only 1000ft (where i live that would normally just make the difference of a couple of inches in depth)

yeah aviemore is at 800 feet above sea level and I am at 700 feet above sea level so I just dont know where its at the momment could end up being a great snow event or a damp squib heres hoping!Also still have snow patches from last months snow. Where the snow had been ploughed!Cheers

Scott

[Harsh Climate]

yeah aviemore is at 800 feet above sea level and I am at 700 feet above sea level so I just dont know where its at the momment could end up being a great snow event or a damp squib heres hoping!Also still have snow patches from last months snow. Where the snow had been ploughed!Cheers

Scott

Lucky you mate, you should be ideally located over the next few days.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn481.png

with the wind wrapping round from the east, plenty extra moisture should be pumped in from the north sea adding to the precipitation cababilities..

Funnily enough youde expect the snow band to die as it pushes north but that doesnt tie in with the precipitation forecasts so who knows, snow may be quite widespread wednesday/thursday... http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn424.png

Edit: just seen your location thought ya meant ya lived near aviemore lol, thats were i meant is ideally located... Due to your alttitude you should sill see a fair bit of snow though

Edited February 23, 2010 by Jed Bickerdike

[scott_anthony_glasgow]

heres hoping but I suspect we will just have to wait and see nowcasting will be in use, I think there will be areas that will end up with a pasting that snow wasnt even forecasted for. Interesting times ahead.Cheers

Scott

[Snowlover2]

something falling just now, i believe its called graupel?

[blitzen]

Reporting Scotland forecast goes for a fizzling front but then light patchy snow across the central belt. Confused? I am.

Nope! - Suicidal!

[JoeShmoe]

Well the latest Beeb forecast had the snow dying as it reached the Borders. Now there's another possibility.

Hehehe we'll know soon enough.

We saw that with the last frontal system that tried to come north - had totally died by the time it got here

sorry to come across as negatve but i just dont buy tonight being anything special for the central belt northwards. Borders maybe but not here

*sits back and prepares to look stoopid tomoz*

[Norrance]

Clouding over a bit here with the first noticable breeze [from SSE] in days.

Some temperatures in places like Strathallan -10C and Pitlochry -12.4C were remarkably low considering that there was no deep snow cover. Usually for double figure lows there is snow cover all around.

[StewieEatWorld]

I think this is the longest the sun has hidden behind a cloud in quite a while... But I do make that a whole week, day after day of waking up to ground frost and freezing tempuratures! Currently 2 degrees and clouding over from the south as expected! Oh, the sun just came out again! If only it was summer eh?!

[Guest]

There is one of those 22 degree halo thingies round the sun just now...

Edit: stuff the halo thingie.....12Z throwing a wobbly and going for a bit of snow tomorrow and Thursday....

Edited February 23, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[blitzen]

There is one of those 22 degree halo thingies round the sun just now...

Edit: stuff the halo thingie.....12Z throwing a wobbly and going for a bit of snow tomorrow and Thursday....

Look at that! As soon as we pick up that amount of precipitation we're at odds with the BBC! You couldn't make it up, could you?

Edited February 23, 2010 by Blitzen

[Guest]

Look at that! As soon as we pick up that amount of precipitation we're at odds with the BBC! You couldn't make it up, could you?

Clear as a snowdrift

[WhiteXmas]

In my opinion the best snow comes from when there are ranging degrees of uncertainty. All we need is for the front to stall and we are cooking with gas!

Edited February 23, 2010 by WhiteXmas

[scott_anthony_glasgow]

I cant help but think somewhere is going to get an absolute pasting, Im hoping its here ha! Although what about Wanlockhead? surely ideal location for a pasting!Cheers

Scott

[Guest]

I cant help but think somewhere is going to get an absolute pasting, Im hoping its here ha! Although what about Wanlockhead? surely ideal location for a pasting!Cheers

Scott

Personally I feel Kilmacolm is the ideal location for a pasting, I'm not biased.

I have BBC-News24 on in the background waiting for a weather forecast: there is snow in Birmingham. I loved the caption beneath the news item which said that Birmingham City Council had to make savings of £69 by 2015 (or some other date). I think they meant £69million otherwise they just need to cut back on the sandwiches for a couple of meetings.

Edited February 23, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[LomondSnowstorm]

I see the uncertainty continues, but we have some localised coastal warming which has led to dewpoints of 0.6C though temperature is 2.7C and a shower of incredibly light sleety snizzle (ok it was probably drizzle!). NAE upgrade, NMM downgrade temperature wise but of course I don't trust it in that respect so we'll just have to wait and see what happens. I don't see the front fizzling out - no model shows this, especially not with moisture picked up from the estuaries http://expert.weathe...022418_2312.gif

Lucky that the less cold uppers hit at night, so maybe still staying as snow for most with any altitude or are reasonably inland (borderline for me as always though!) but colder uppers look like sinking a bit further south by morning http://expert.weathe...022509_2312.gif

Precipitation totals over the next 48 hours look good, around 25mm in the Edinburgh area and 11mm across Fife, though slight adjustments will make the difference between who has the most snow - my bet is on By-Tor........ Nah, the borders look pretty good for snow, as does the central belt and inland Fife and Perthshire, and Glasgow could easily see four inches IMO, because any modification is going to be this side of the mate.

LS

Edited February 23, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[WhiteXmas]

Catch, bear this in mind; it is no coincidence that Paisley and pasting sound similar

[snowmess]

I cant help but think somewhere is going to get an absolute pasting, Im hoping its here ha! Although what about Wanlockhead? surely ideal location for a pasting!Cheers

Scott

When you get your 'pasting', can you send the rest of the snow over to your pals in Fife?   

[Guest]

Catch, bear this in mind; it is no coincidence that Paisley and pasting sound similar

That's fine, if Paisley takes a pasting I'll be getting a double dumping

OMG!!!! Breaking News: Cheryl Chole going for a break-up with Ashers!!

Edit: All I wanted was a weather forecast from the BBC NewsChannel....and I'm stuck with HelloTV

Edited February 23, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[kold weather]

Really messy evolution guess that could well throw up a few surprises, this is because we develop a complex low which has several centers fighting for dominance, exactly what low becomes dominant will detemrine where the precip will end up.

We shall see, its a forecasters nightmare, the colder air ends up getting briefly dislodged by milder air aqnd thus bar the very northern it could turn sleety/rainy, however it seems like the cold air comes back south again, and the whole process could well restart after that.

A very messy set-up, simply put, snow, then possibly wrong side of marginal, then back to snow.

ps, tonight does look real interesting it has to be said as does tomorrow morning, I agree with LS, 4-6 inches quite possible.

Edited February 23, 2010 by kold weather

[WhiteXmas]

That's fine, if Paisley takes a pasting I'll be getting a double dumping

OMG!!!! Breaking News: Cheryl Chole going for a break-up with Ashers!!

Edit: All I wanted was a weather forecast from the BBC NewsChannel....and I'm stuck with HelloTV

that's most probably true.

All you need now is HelloSnow

[Guest]

ps, tonight does look real interesting it has to be said as does tomorrow morning, I agree with LS, 4-6 inches quite possible.

BBC forecast pulling its punches, highlighting the snow risk but no detail. I am not surprised!!

[Joe Bloggs]

I see the uncertainty continues, but we have some localised coastal warming which has led to dewpoints of 0.6C though temperature is 2.7C and a shower of incredibly light sleety snizzle (ok it was probably drizzle!). NAE upgrade, NMM downgrade temperature wise but of course I don't trust it in that respect so we'll just have to wait and see what happens. I don't see the front fizzling out - no model shows this, especially not with moisture picked up from the estuaries http://expert.weathe...022418_2312.gif

Lucky that the less cold uppers hit at night, so maybe still staying as snow for most with any altitude or are reasonably inland (borderline for me as always though!) but colder uppers look like sinking a bit further south by morning http://expert.weathe...022509_2312.gif

Precipitation totals over the next 48 hours look good, around 25mm in the Edinburgh area and 11mm across Fife, though slight adjustments will make the difference between who has the most snow - my bet is on By-Tor........ Nah, the borders look pretty good for snow, as does the central belt and inland Fife and Perthshire, and Glasgow could easily see four inches IMO, because any modification is going to be this side of the mate.

LS

So to clarify, you think it could be a sleety mess in Edinburgh?

Latest MetO update supports rain on the east coast, I ain't counting my chickens.

[kold weather]

BBC forecast pulling its punches, highlighting the snow risk but no detail. I am not surprised!!

Its a very tough forecast to make because there are a lot of factors, still it looks to me like there is going to be a period of signifcant period of snow for most of Scotland. Worth noting as well that the Highland could see a huge dumping of snow, some places in the Olympics cold be rather envious of the possibles falls up there!