Scottish Cold Spell Discussion

[kold weather]

Carry on here my fellow Scots, discuss about what chances you have this week.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Thanks. I take it the subtitle alludes to the marginally absurd ramp I had when claiming that next week could make '47 look like 01/02..... seemed reasonable enough to me!

edit: Or maybe I should start in a more cautious note carried over from the last thread?

I don't think you would be in any way unreasonable in saying that (we're almost guaranteed sig. snow next week), but the way the models have been all over the place there are setups which I can't yet imagine and haven't been shown on the models yet (maybe the 12Z GFS) that do not give us either status quo/lots of snow which might be adopted overnight. I don't see it, I doubt many see it happening, but I don't think I could rule it out.

In fact, I'll cover my back and take the Calvinistic route out - since we can't predict 24 hours out, what's the point of looking any further than that? It might as well be nailded on mild pesterlies with 'no drifts up to your waist (that's right I read Stratos Ferric's urban dictionary!!) for all the chance we've got!

My blend of these three outcomes for today would be this - 5% the first one, 40% middle ground between top and middle one, 35% the middle one itself and 20% the last one for good measure.

Perhaps I should stop wittering now and just go to sleep?

Did Monds look like this after last night's foray into the model thread?

Where did Shuggee go? Will he return for East Central's next biggie for some good old fashioned NMM watching fun?

Ok, I've lost it now, perhaps I'll regain sanity in the morning.

LS

Edited February 21, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[StewieEatWorld]

The end is nigh...

Ohhh boy... 14 to 22 inches... of snow... We should totally try get our own over-exaggerated weather forecast like that one for Baltimore! Paralyzing!!!! Haha!

[Cheggers]

The end is nigh...

Ohhh boy... 14 to 22 inches... of snow... We should totally try get our own over-exaggerated weather forecast like that one for Baltimore! Paralyzing!!!! Haha!

And here's me today test driving a new motor thinking of swapping my 4x4!!!!!!!

[Cheggers]

Did Monds look like this after last night's foray into the model thread?

I think after his winters foray into the model thread, this is the norm!!!

[Glaswegianblizzard]

It is currently -9 in Glasgow.

But www.weather.co.uk believe that when I step outside, it will feel like -13.

Bah! We can handle that now.

[NorthernRab]

It is currently -9 in Glasgow.

But www.weather.co.uk believe that when I step outside, it will feel like -13.

Bah! We can handle that now.

A minus -14'C windchill for Inverness, no thank you!

[Guest]

It is currently -9 in Glasgow.

But www.weather.co.uk believe that when I step outside, it will feel like -13.

Bah! We can handle that now.

3rd coldest night of the winter at Glasgow Airport although it has been -9C on five other occastions.

No fog this morning but one of the thickest frosts of the winter, the ground must be frozen to a good depth now. All the better if we get some snow next week

[NorthernRab]

-5'c in parts of Eilean Siar, it's a cold one alright

[Snowplough33]

Morning chaps...........correct-a-moondo.......its baltic this morning. Everything frozen solid for the last 2 days really.

Charts look very good this morning for mega snow event later in the week, but couple of boring days to start with. We may be lucky later today and get a few showers onto the coast as a little wind develops from the east.

[Guest]

Morning chaps...........correct-a-moondo.......its baltic this morning. Everything frozen solid for the last 2 days really.

Charts look very good this morning for mega snow event later in the week, but couple of boring days to start with. We may be lucky later today and get a few showers onto the coast as a little wind develops from the east.

I haven't looked at the rest of the models yet but the low which the GFS has bringing snow for us on Friday looks a little overcooked and will probably not come as far north as shown here:

If that verified then the wind would be as much of an issue as any snow. Forecasts of sustained wind of 38mph at Glasgow Airport would see gusts of 70mph+, and this from an easterly wind. I think not :lol:

[Snowplough33]

I haven't looked at the rest of the models yet but the low which the GFS has bringing snow for us on Friday looks a little overcooked and will probably not come as far north as shown here:

If that verified then the wind would be as much of an issue as any snow. Forecasts of sustained wind of 38mph at Glasgow Airport would see gusts of 70mph+, and this from an easterly wind. I think not

Overcooked is the understatement of the winter. We are forecast to have 60 hours of snow from late Wednesday to Friday. If that fell at 1" an hour, we would have 10ft of level snow and I guess with the Easterly winds of 38 - 70 mph, drifts will be around 40 - 50ft deep . Not really that likely, or am I being pesasimistic (where is spell check when needed)

Edited February 21, 2010 by Snowplough33

[Im no expert....but]

Overcooked is the understatement of the winter. We are forecast to have 60 hours of snow from late Wednesday to Friday. If that fell at 1" an hour, we would have 10ft of level snow and I guess with the Easterly winds of 38 - 70 mph, drifts will be around 40 - 50ft deep . Not really that likely, or am I being pesasimistic (where is spell check when needed)

I disagree 60 hours of constant snow looks weldid on to me

[Guest]

Overcooked is the understatement of the winter. We are forecast to have 60 hours of snow from late Wednesday to Friday. If that fell at 1" an hour, we would have 10ft of level snow and I guess with the Easterly winds of 38 - 70 mph, drifts will be around 40 - 50ft deep . Not really that likely, or am I being pesasimistic (where is spell check when needed)

Realistic more than pessimistic. Although the FAX charts have a front moving slowly north with strong easterly winds....

[blitzen]

Moaning! Lowest we got was -5.9c overnight. It is now -4.5c with a westerly wind. Popped into the models and yes it does look good for us next week. Methinks we have been here before though? Anyway, not many posters mentioning Scotland next week, all the talk of northern England being worst hit. Must get my specs sorted!

Edited February 21, 2010 by Blitzen

[GraemeB]

-7 in Stirling just now, so I hate to think what the low was overnight...

Blitzen - I'm sure we were "here" this time last week, and we all know what happened there

If the charts are still showing someting around the Wed 12z/18z then I may start getting excited ...

[Snowplough33]

Moaning! Lowest we got was 5.9c overnight. It is now -4.5c with a westerly wind. Popped into the models and yes it does look good for us next week. Methinks we have been here before though? Anyway, not many posters mentioning Scotland next week, all the talk of northern England being worst hit. Must get my specs sorted!

Yeh these are very clever weather systems that can lines themselfes up exactly on the border and not cross them. If you stood there, you could be in heavy snow, take a step to the left and be out of it. Amazing !!

[blitzen]

Great to see the cold becoming embedded again up here. That's always a good sign. If those lows manage to line up correctly next week, then we may land up with the best dumping of the winter so far. Even Catch might get some!!

Well, just about time for the 6z. God, I can't look!

Edited February 21, 2010 by Blitzen

[Guest]

If the charts are still showing someting around the Wed 12z/18z then I may start getting excited ...

I'm with you on this one Graeme. It's a little like telling kids every night that the next day is Xmas, only for them to wake up in the morning and be told, nah, it's tomorrow or the day after. Or maybe the day after. Or next week possibly. Thursday? No. Saturday if you're lucky....

Great to see the cold becoming embedded again up here. That's always a good sign. If those lows manage to line up correctly next week, then we may land up with the best dumping of the winter so far. Even Catch might get some!!

I hope so. Although a little part of me hopes it stays completely dry until the end of the month as then there is a chance of the driest winter in at least half a century here.

06z will no doubt go off on one and give us either 2 metres of snow over 5 days or 200mm of rain and 15C.

[GraemeB]

How do you spell Atlantic Returneth ?

[Guest]

How do you spell Atlantic Returneth ?

Hopefully not beforeth someth snoweth

Edit: Looking at the 06z, not beforeth loads of snoweth!!

2nd Edit: Quick quick, panic buy bread and milk......ice age coming. What do you mean it's only one run?? OK.....I'll wait until Wednesday before getting excited

Edited February 21, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[GraemeB]

Hopefully not beforeth someth snoweth

Argh !

Just wandered into the MT - I think we actually got a mention along the lines of

"Scotland will be cold".

Hmmmm.

[kold weather]

06z looks rather impressive for some parts of Scotland on the 06z run, however its rather an outlier compared to the other models with what it does with the low pressure system, however don't rule it out by any means even because of this. IF the 06z did come off, probably looking at 15-25cms in some parts of W.Scotland, maybe even a foot locally if the 06z was right as a low jsut stalls over N.Ireland.

However its a rather odd run in that respect I'm afraid and I'm not sure I'd buy it, would lead to a pretty stunning fall though!

Also difference between the 0z run and the 06z runs LP is mental, LP this run is 25mbs weaker!

Edited February 21, 2010 by kold weather

[blitzen]

Argh !

Just wandered into the MT - I think we actually got a mention along the lines of

"Scotland will be cold".

Hmmmm.

Looks to me as if the snow arrives about 12hrs earlier and on quite a strong easterly flow on this run?

Shut up Carole and pay attention to what Kold is saying!

Edited February 21, 2010 by Blitzen

[GraemeB]

Looks to me as if the snow arrives about 12hrs earlier and on quite a strong easterly flow on this run?

I'm liking this...for Thursday