New Research

[knocker]

You also have take into account other mechanisms for high altitude climate change such as orbital and solar.

 

Changes in orbital eccentricity, obliquity, precession of the equinoxes, changes in orbital inclination

[knocker]

Scientists cast doubt on theory of what triggered Antarctic glaciation

A team of U.S. and U.K. scientists has found geologic evidence that casts doubt on one of the conventional explanations for how Antarctica's ice sheet began forming. Ian Dalziel, research professor at The University of Texas at Austin's Institute for Geophysics and professor in the Jackson School of Geosciences, and his colleagues report the findings today in an online edition of the journal Geology.

 

 

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-07/uota-scd071113.php

Edited July 11, 2013 by knocker

[knocker]

Statistical models and the global temperature record

 

Below is the executive summary of a paper written by Professor Julia Slingo, the Met Office's Chief Scientist, on statistical models and the global temperature record. You can read the full paper by clicking on the link to the pdf at the bottom of this story.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/statistical-models-and-temperature

Edited July 12, 2013 by knocker

[knocker]

Variation of East Asian monsoon precipitation during the past 21 k.y. and potential CO₂ forcing

Abstract

Paleoclimatic research can provide critical insight on causes of change in the East Asian monsoon, which influences the lives of 1.6 billion people today. In this study, we use paleoclimatic indexes from Chinese loess deposits, which have clear climatic implications and are independently dated, to reconstruct the monsoon precipitation since 21 ka. Our results show that monsoon precipitation persistently decreased from 21 ka to ca. 8 ka, and increased after ca. 8 ka, with a precipitation peak at 8–3 ka. These changes in East Asian summer monsoon precipitation are synchronous with changes in high-northern-latitude ice volume/ice cover and atmospheric CO₂. These new data suggest that variation of the monsoon precipitation was probably driven by CO₂-forced high-northern-latitude temperature changes, shifting the location of the intertropical convergence zone that dominates monsoon precipitation. Our TraCE-21000 modeling experiment supports this interpretation.

 

 

http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/early/2013/07/10/G34488.1.abstract

[knocker]

Continuous satellite monitoring of ice sheets needed to better predict sea-level rise

 

The findings, published in Nature Geoscience, underscore the need for continuous satellite monitoring of the ice sheets to better identify and predict melting and the corresponding sea-level rise.

 

The ice sheets covering Antarctica and Greenland contain about 99.5 per cent of the Earth's glacier ice which would raise global sea level by some 63m if it were to melt completely. The ice sheets are the largest potential source of future sea level rise – and they also possess the largest uncertainty over their future behaviour. They present some unique challenges for predicting their future response using numerical modelling and, as a consequence, alternative approaches have been explored. One common approach is to extrapolate observed changes to estimate their contribution to sea level in the future.

 

Since 2002, the satellites of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) detect tiny variations in Earth's gravity field resulting from changes in mass distribution, including movement of ice into the oceans. Using these changes in gravity, the state of the ice sheets can be monitored at monthly intervals.

 

Dr Bert Wouters, currently a visiting researcher at the University of Colorado, said: "In the course of the mission, it has become apparent that ice sheets are losing substantial amounts of ice – about 300 billion tonnes each year – and that the rate at which these losses occurs is increasing. Compared to the first few years of the GRACE mission, the ice sheets' contribution to sea level rise has almost doubled in recent years."

 

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-07/uob-csm071113.php

Edited July 14, 2013 by knocker

[knocker]

Scientists outline long-term sea-level rise in response to warming of planet

http://oregonstate.edu/ua/ncs/archives/2013/jul/scientists-outline-long-term-sea-level-rise-response-warming-planet

[knocker]

Offshore permafrost decay and massive seabed methane escape in water depths >20 m at the South Kara Sea shelf^†

Abstract

[1] Since the Last Glacial Maximum (~19 ka), coastal inundation from sea-level rise has been thawing thick subsea permafrost across the Arctic. Although subsea permafrost has been mapped on several Arctic continental shelves, permafrost distribution in the South Kara Sea and the extent to which it is acting as an impermeable seal to seabed methane escape remains poorly understood. Here we use >1300 km of high-resolution seismic (HRS) data to map hydroacoustic anomalies, interpreted to record seabed gas release, on the West Yamal shelf. Gas flares are widespread over an area of at least 7,500 km² in water depths >20 m. We propose that continuous subsea permafrost extends to water depths of ~20 m offshore and creates a seal through which gas cannot migrate. This Arctic shelf region where seafloor gas release is widespread suggests that permafrost has degraded more significantly than previously thought.

 

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50735/abstract

[BornFromTheVoid]

 

 

Deciphering the big thaw

 

...If increasing sunlight in the Northern Hemisphere triggered the end of the most recent ice age, why do clues to ice-age temperatures indicate the Southern Hemisphere warmed up before the Northern Hemisphere?

Now a team of researchers using Jaguar, a Cray XT supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, has an answer. Simulations run over four years indicate changes in ocean currents gave the Southern Hemisphere a head start in warming up.

“Our results reconciled the Milankovitch theory and early Southern Hemisphere warming,†says Feng He, an assistant scientist at the Center for Climatic Research, Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, at the University of Wisconsin­–Madison.

 

 

http://www.deixismagazine.org/2013/07/deciphering-the-big-thaw/2/

 

A very interesting read...

[knocker]

Researchers Shed New Light on Supraglacial Lake Drainage

Supraglacial lakes – bodies of water that collect on the surface of the Greenland ice sheet – lubricate the bottom of the sheet when they drain, causing it to flow faster. Differences in how the lakes drain can impact glacial movement's speed and direction, researchers from The City College of New York (CCNY), University of Cambridge and Los Alamos National Laboratory report in "Environmental Research Letters."

"Knowledge of the draining mechanisms allows us to improve our understanding of how surface melting can impact sea-level rise, not only through the direct contribution of meltwater from the surface, but also through the indirect contribution on the mass loss through ice dynamics," says Dr. Marco Tedesco, the principal investigator and lead author.

 

 

http://www.ccny.cuny.edu/news/tedesco-supraglacial-research.cfm

Edited July 16, 2013 by knocker

[knocker]

Arctic Sea Ice During the Pliocene Era

New research by UM bioclimatology Assistant Professor Ashley Ballantyne models the influence of Arctic sea ice on Arctic temperatures during the Pliocene era.

(From ScienceDaily) – His research was published in the Research Highlight section of the July issue of Nature Geoscience. The full paper will be published in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology: An International Journal for the Geosciences.

 

 

http://www.oceanleadership.org/2013/arctic-sea-ice-during-the-pliocene-era/?utm_campaign=twitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitter

[keithlucky]

Converting methane to co2 http://www.cfact.org/2013/07/04/converting-methane-to-co2-with-bacteria/

[BornFromTheVoid]

Have you got a link to the actual research keith?

 

Beause, in the opening post...

 

"Please only post peer reviewed papers, abstracts from science journals or links to academic research in this thread."

[knocker]

When will the summer Arctic be nearly sea ice free?

Abstract

[1] The observed rapid loss of thick multiyear sea ice over the last 7 years and the September 2012 Arctic sea ice extent reduction of 49% relative to the 1979–2000 climatology are inconsistent with projections of a nearly sea ice-free summer Arctic from model estimates of 2070 and beyond made just a few years ago. Three recent approaches to predictions in the scientific literature are as follows: (1) extrapolation of sea ice volume data, (2) assuming several more rapid loss events such as 2007 and 2012, and (3) climate model projections. Time horizons for a nearly sea ice-free summer for these three approaches are roughly 2020 or earlier, 2030 ± 10 years, and 2040 or later. Loss estimates from models are based on a subset of the most rapid ensemble members. It is not possible to clearly choose one approach over another as this depends on the relative weights given to data versus models. Observations and citations support the conclusion that most global climate model results in the CMIP5 archive are too conservative in their sea ice projections. Recent data and expert opinion should be considered in addition to model results to advance the very likely timing for future sea ice loss to the first half of the 21st century, with a possibility of major loss within a decade or two.

 

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50316/abstract

[knocker]

Scientists discover new variability in iron supply to the oceans with climate implications

The supply of dissolved iron to oceans around continental shelves has been found to be more variable by region than previously believed – with implications for future climate prediction.

 

Iron is key to the removal of carbon dioxide from the Earth's atmosphere as it promotes the growth of microscopic marine plants (phytoplankton), which mop up the greenhouse gas and lock it away in the ocean.

 

 

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-07/nocs-sdn071813.php

[knocker]

It's not just the heat -- it's the ozone: Study highlights hidden dangers

During heat waves -- when ozone production rises -- plants' ozone absorption is curtailed, leaving more pollution in the air, and costing an estimated 460 lives in the UK in the hot summer of 2006.

 

Vegetation plays a crucial role in reducing air pollution, but new research by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) at the University of York shows that they may not protect us when we need it most: during extreme heat, when ozone formation from traffic fumes, industrial processes and other sources is at its worst.

 

 

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-07/uoy-inj071913.php

[knocker]

Nighttime heat waves quadruple in Pacific Northwest

 

Nighttime heat waves are becoming more frequent in western Washington and Oregon.

And if you don’t sleep well in hot weather, this might be a good time to buy a fan, since records show that on average heat waves tend to strike around the last week of July.

 

University of Washington research shows that the region west of the Cascades saw only three nighttime heat waves between 1901 and 1980, but that number quadrupled to 12 nighttime heat waves in the three decades after 1980, according to a paper published in the July issue of the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

 

 

http://www.washington.edu/news/2013/07/19/nighttime-heat-waves-quadruple-in-pacific-northwest/

[knocker]

The role of reduced aerosol precursor emissions in driving near-term warming

The representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios all assume stringent emissions controls on aerosols and their precursors, and hence include progressive decreases in aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions through the 21st century. Recent studies have suggested that the resultant decrease in aerosols could drive rapid near-term warming, which could dominate the effects of greenhouse gas (GHG) increases in the coming decades. In CanESM2 simulations, we find that under the RCP 2.6 scenario, which includes the fastest decrease in aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions, the contribution of aerosol reductions to warming between 2000 and 2040 is around 30%. Moreover, the rate of warming in the RCP 2.6 simulations declines gradually from its present-day value as GHG emissions decrease. Thus, while aerosol emission reductions contribute to gradual warming through the 21st century, we find no evidence that aerosol emission reductions drive particularly rapid near-term warming in this scenario. In the near-term, as in the long-term, GHG increases are the dominant driver of warming.

 

 

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/3/034008/pdf/1748-9326_8_3_034008.pdf

[knocker]

The world’s earliest instrumental temperature records, from 1632 to 1648, claimed by G. Libri, are reality or myth?

Abstract

In 1830, Libri announced the finding of a 16-year-long record of daily temperature observed in Florence, Italy, by Father Renieri before the activity of the Medici Network (1654 to 1670) that is usually considered the earliest instrumental series in the world. The Libri announcement was supported by the concurrent finding of a box with the early Little Florentine Thermometers that survived the Inquisition and was confirmed by Schouw, von Humboldt and Maxwell. However, all investigations made to find Renieri’s observations were fruitless. This paper clarifies this complex situation differentiating between myth and reality. A careful analysis of the Libri’s announcement in the historical context points out that Libri made the announcement while escaping for conspiracy from Florence and needed a scoop to be introduced in the French Academy of Sciences. For this reason he made a deliberate mix of new and old assertions, i.e. he claimed to have made new discoveries but without explaining too much and reporting misleading details about well known stories concerning the earliest meteorological observations. This induced people to suppose that further, earlier records existed. The consequence of this was that climatologists searched for years the claimed records. This paper shows that the Medici Network almost certainly contains the earliest exploitable instrumental observations. The possibility of finding a short series of observations prior to 1654 is remote.

 

 

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-013-0742-3

[knocker]

Is there a 'weather girl' stereotype?

 

“WEATHER GIRLS†ON THE BIG SCREEN: STEREOTYPES, SEX APPEAL, AND SCIENCE

 

Capsule Summary

 

This study evaluates the representation of women weathercasters in several films and television episodes, in order to determine if the detrimental “weather girl†stereotype of the 1950's is perpetuated in current pop culture.

 

Abstract

Women currently in the broadcasting meteorology field have dealt with, and continue to deal with, restrictive stereotypes based on the public's perception of their physical appearance and intelligence, largely stemming from the “weather girl†stereotype developed in the 1950's. This sexist stereotype is best seen and often exaggerated in cinematic films and television shows; however, the public's ability to distinguish the truthful and fictitious aspects of these stereotypes is important because these stereotypes limit the level of trust established between female weathercasters and viewers, while consequently impeding the public response to dangerous weather situations.

 

This study will evaluate the origin of the “weather girl†stereotype associated with female broadcast meteorologists throughout history, and use this information to further understand the representation of women weathercasters in several films and television episodes, in order to determine if the “weather girl†stereotype is further perpetrated in popular cultural media. The study found that these films and episodes actually serve to diminish the role of female weathercasters by reducing them to nothing more than a “weather girl.â€

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00079.1

Edited July 21, 2013 by knocker

[knocker]

Ancient ice melt unearthed in Antarctic mud

 

Carbon dioxide levels were similar to today's

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet repeatedly melted back several hundred miles inland during several warming periods 3 million to 5 million years ago in the Pliocene Epoch, according to a new study in the journal Nature Geoscience.

 

While most of the West Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets are thought to have melted during this time, the East Antarctic Ice Sheet was considered more stable due to its larger size and higher elevation. The study shows that the East Antarctic ice sheet is also vulnerable to substantial melting under warmer climates than today.

 

 

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-07/teia-aim072213.php

Edited July 22, 2013 by knocker

[knocker]

Rapid upper ocean warming linked to declining aerosols

 

Australian scientists have identified causes of a rapid warming in the upper subtropical oceans of the Southern Hemisphere.

 

They partly attribute the observed warming, and preceding cooling trends to ocean circulation changes induced by global greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols predominantly generated in the Northern Hemisphere from human activity.

 

The research, by scientists from CSIRO and the University of NSW, was published today in Scientific Reports.

 

 

http://www.csiro.au/en/Portals/Media/Rapid-upper-ocean-warming-linked-to-declining-aerosols.aspx

Edited July 23, 2013 by knocker

[knocker]

Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain

Within the warm conveyor belt of extra-tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are the key synoptic features which deliver the majority of poleward water vapour transport, and are associated with episodes of heavy and prolonged rainfall. ARs are responsible for many of the largest winter floods in the mid-latitudes resulting in major socioeconomic losses; for example, the loss from United Kingdom (UK) flooding in summer/winter 2012 is estimated to be about $1.6 billion in damages. Given the well-established link between ARs and peak river flows for the present day, assessing how ARs could respond under future climate projections is of importance in gauging future impacts from flooding. We show that North Atlantic ARs are projected to become stronger and more numerous in the future scenarios of multiple simulations from five state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) in the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The increased water vapour transport in projected ARs implies a greater risk of higher rainfall totals and therefore larger winter floods in Britain, with increased AR frequency leading to more flood episodes. In the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) for 2074–2099 there is an approximate doubling of AR frequency in the five GCMs. Our results suggest that the projected change in ARs is predominantly a thermodynamic response to warming resulting from anthropogenic radiative forcing.

 

 

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/3/034010/pdf/1748-9326_8_3_034010.pdf

[knocker]

Krakatoa lives: The effect of volcanic eruptions on ocean heat contentand thermal expansion

 

http://www.image.ucar.edu/idag/Papers/Gleckler_Krakatoa.pdf

[knocker]

Relative contribution of feedback processes to Arctic amplification of temperature change in MIROC GCM

Abstract

The finding that surface warming over the Arctic exceeds that over the rest of the world under global warming is a robust feature among general circulation models (GCMs). While various mechanisms have been proposed, quantifying their relative contributions is an important task in order to understand model behavior. Here we apply a recently proposed feedback analysis technique to an atmosphere–ocean GCM under two and four times CO₂ concentrations which approximately lead to seasonally and annually sea ice-free climates. The contribution of feedbacks to Arctic temperature change is investigated. The surface warming in the Arctic is contributed by albedo, water vapour and large-scale condensation feedbacks and reduced by the evaporative cooling feedback. The surface warming contrast between the Arctic and the global averages (AA) is maintained by albedo and evaporative cooling feedbacks. The latter contributes to AA predominantly by cooling the low latitudes more than the Arctic. Latent heat transport into the Arctic increases and hence evaporative cooling plus large-scale condensation feedback contributes positively to AA. On the other hand, dry-static energy transport into the Arctic decreases and hence dynamical heating feedback contributes negatively to AA. An important contribution is thus made via changes in hydrological cycle and not via the ‘dry’ heat transport process. A larger response near the surface than aloft in the Arctic is maintained by the albedo, water vapour, and dynamical heating feedbacks, in which the albedo and water vapour feedbacks contribute through warming the surface more than aloft, and the dynamical heating feedback contributes by cooling aloft more than the surface. In our experiments, ocean and sea ice dynamics play a secondary role. It is shown that a different level of CO₂ increase introduces a latitudinal and seasonal difference into the feedbacks.

 

 

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-013-1875-9

[knocker]

Deciphering the Air-Sea Communication: Ocean Significantly Affects Long-Term Climate Fluctuations

July 25, 2013 — Why does hurricane activity vary from decade to decade? Or rainfall in the Sahel region? And why are the trans-Atlantic changes frequently in sync? A German-Russian research team has investigated the role of heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere in long-term climate variability in the Atlantic. The scientists analyzed meteorological measurements and sea surface temperatures over the past 130 years. It was found that the ocean significantly affects long term climate fluctuations, while the seemingly chaotic atmosphere is mainly responsible for the shorter-term, year-to-year changes.

 

 

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/07/130725104849.htm