New Research

[jethro]

I'm all for active and strident conversations, but there is a distinct line between arguing vociferously to champion your science facts and taking petty, personal snipes at one another. 

 

There is a code of conduct for this area, please ensure you adhere to it.

[knocker]

Heartland Institute Knows Squat About Science

 

http://bbickmore.wordpress.com/2013/08/02/heartland-knows-squat-about-science/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[knocker]

Impact of a potential 21^st century “grand solar minimum†on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone^†

Abstract

[1] We investigate the effects of a recently proposed 21^st century Dalton-minimum-like decline of solar activity on the evolution of Earths’ climate and ozone layer. Three sets of 2-member ensemble simulations, radiatively forced by a mid-level emission scenario (IPCC RCP4.5), are performed with the atmosphere-ocean chemistry climate model AOCCM SOCOL3-MPIOM, one with constant solar activity, the other two with reduced solar activity and different strength of the solar irradiance forcing. A future grand solar minimum will reduce the global mean surface warming of 2 K between 1986-2005 and 2081-2100 by 0.2 to 0.3 K. Furthermore, the decrease in solar UV radiation leads to a significant delay of stratospheric ozone recovery by 10 yearsand longer. Therefore, the effects of a solar activity minimum, should it occur, may interfere with international efforts for the protection of global climate and the ozone layer.

 

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50806/abstract

Edited August 4, 2013 by knocker

[knocker]

Does nature lie?

 

Global investigation reveals true scale of ocean warming

 

Warming oceans are causing marine species to change breeding times and shift homes with expected substantial consequences for the broader marine landscape, according to a new global study.

 

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-08/uop-gir080213.php

Edited August 4, 2013 by knocker

[knocker]

As for oceanic heat content, again you must be the only person the planet who can map and measure heat content throughout the oceans, you should get that cv updated.

 

And finally the pause in the warming brings out some laughable suggestions as to where the missing heat content has gone. Apparently it's now in the oceans but we can't find it anywhere but that does't stop the egotistical scientists from telling us it's still there, we just have to trust them on this one. 

 

But marine species can.

[UV-RAY]

But marine species can.

Perhaps the IPCC should appoint a crustacean then.

[jethro]

But marine species can.

 

I'd be very careful at accepting changes with marine species (in regards to movement and breeding) as evidence of climate change. Ocean currents do have cycles totally independent of climate change, some of which we know and understand, others which we are just scratching the surface of understanding. A prime example of the changes/impacts these cycles have on marine species can be found by studying the impact upon Salmon fishing of the phases of the PDO.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~mantua/REPORTS/PDO/pdo_paper.html

 

http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/PubServices/1998pdfs/Mantua.pdf

 

http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fe/estuarine/oeip/ca-pdo.cfm

[Methuselah]

Perhaps the IPCC should appoint a crustacean then.

There's a joke in there, SI...But it ain't PC!

[Interitus]

 

 

As for oceanic heat content, again you must be the only person the planet who can map and measure heat content throughout the oceans, you should get that cv updated.

 

And finally the pause in the warming brings out some laughable suggestions as to where the missing heat content has gone. Apparently it's now in the oceans but we can't find it anywhere but that does't stop the egotistical scientists from telling us it's still there, we just have to trust them on this one. 

 

This is a silly statement - http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/

 

Of course it would be good if there was more data, particularly from the southern hemisphere and in earlier time periods for better comparison but (as with the atmosphere) it is not necessary to have total coverage to have a good idea about the temperature distribution. It's basic sampling theory, a continuous i.e. analogue, data source can be discretised and accurately reconstructed from the sampled data. In the same way that all your music and television is now sampled and digitised.

 

Barring extreme discontinuities the ocean sampling density does not need to be very high and at the rates of change in the ocean the sampling frequency needn't be very often either.

[VillagePlank]

Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict

 

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/3011470/Publications/Science-2013-Hsiang-science.1235367.pdf

 

Reminds me of Climate and the Affairs of Men by Iben Browning

[knocker]

Looking to the past to predict the future of climate change

 

FROSTBURG, MD (August 5, 2013)—Climate changes how species interact with one another—and not just today. Scientists are studying trends from fossil records to understand how climate change impacted the world in the ancient past and to identify ways to predict how things may change in the future, according to a new study by University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science researcher Matt Fitzpatrick and colleagues published in the August 2 issue of Science.

 

http://www.umces.edu/al/release/2013/aug/02/looking-past-predict-future-climate-change

 

Link to paper

 

http://www.umces.edu/sites/default/files/Science-2013-Blois-499-504.pdf

Edited August 5, 2013 by knocker

[UV-RAY]

This is a silly statement - http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/

 

Of course it would be good if there was more data, particularly from the southern hemisphere and in earlier time periods for better comparison but (as with the atmosphere) it is not necessary to have total coverage to have a good idea about the temperature distribution. It's basic sampling theory, a continuous i.e. analogue, data source can be discretised and accurately reconstructed from the sampled data. In the same way that all your music and television is now sampled and digitised.

 

Barring extreme discontinuities the ocean sampling density does not need to be very high and at the rates of change in the ocean the sampling frequency needn't be very often either.

As I keep saying there is so much we don't know about our oceans and cycles within cycles, it's still the one area where there is still a lot to learn, so there is nothing silly whatsoever in my statement. Like you say mapping of the Southern oceans is pretty sporadic to say the least and yet this covers such a vast and important area, so trying to reconstruct ocean temps becomes more guesswork than factual data. 

To recap on my point how long have we known about the workings of ENSO and the PDO and yet we can go and make great assumptions about temp data we simply do not have at this moment in time.

Edited August 5, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[knocker]

As I keep saying there is so much we don't know about our oceans and cycles within cycles, it's still the one area where there is still a lot to learn, so there is nothing silly whatsoever in my statement. Like you say mapping of the Southern oceans is pretty sporadic to say the least and yet this covers such a vast and important area, so trying to reconstruct ocean temps becomes more guesswork than factual data. 

To recap on my point how long have we known about the workings of ENSO and the PDO and yet we can go and make great assumptions about temp data we simply do not have at this moment in time.

 

This is quite true. I've just been re-reading Arnold H. Taylor's interesting book, The Dance of Air and Sea; How oceans, weather, and life link together. In it he discusses the interesting connection between Zooplankton and the Gulf Stream. Fascinating.

 

He co-authored a much more detailed paper on this subject.

.

Long-term changes in zooplankton and the climate of the North Atlantic

 

http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/content/55/4/644.full.pdf

Edited August 5, 2013 by knocker

[Devonian]

As I keep saying there is so much we don't know about our oceans and cycles within cycles, it's still the one area where there is still a lot to learn, so there is nothing silly whatsoever in my statement. Like you say mapping of the Southern oceans is pretty sporadic to say the least and yet this covers such a vast and important area, so trying to reconstruct ocean temps becomes more guesswork than factual data. To recap on my point how long have we known about the workings of ENSO and the PDO and yet we can go and make great assumptions about temp data we simply do not have at this moment in time.

Ordanace Survey maps are not guesswork. But for sure they too are based on limited data. The same also applies to Met Office fax charts of current weather and British Geological Survey geology maps. I would not dismiss any of them as guesswork either. Edited August 5, 2013 by Devonian

[UV-RAY]

Do you think Ordanace Survey maps are guesswork? For sure they too are based on limited data. The same also applies to Met Office fax charts of current weather and British Geological Survey geology maps. I would not dismiss any of them as guesswork either.

Not at all, but what the Ordnance Survey maps don't do is is paint half a picture because the data only shows a mile of terrain. Like ' I've said before the data is incomplete and therefore it's guesswork in implying we know the oceans are warming. Buoys only cover a small surface area of the oceans and satellites can only take measurements of the skim of the oceans. Comparing this to the fax charts is plain nonsense because the MetO has all the data at hand it needs.

Edited August 5, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[knocker]

Ozone-protection treaty had climate benefits, too, study says

The global treaty that headed off destruction of earth's protective ozone layer has also prevented major disruption of global rainfall patterns, even though that was not a motivation for the treaty, according to a new study in the Journal of Climate.

 

The 1987 Montreal Protocol phased out the use of chloroflourocarbons, or CFCs, a class of chemicals that destroy ozone in the stratosphere, allowing more ultraviolet radiation to reach earth's surface. Though the treaty aimed to reverse ozone losses, the new research shows that it also protected the hydroclimate. The study says the treaty prevented ozone loss from disrupting atmospheric circulation, and kept CFCs, which are greenhouse gases, from warming the atmosphere and also disrupting atmospheric circulation. Had these effects taken hold, they would have combined to shift rainfall patterns in ways beyond those that may already be happening due to rising carbon dioxide in the air.

 

 

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-08/teia-oth080513.php

[knocker]

the Holocene in the Arctic Ocean, the northern North Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent seas

Abstract

Sea ice cover extent expressed in terms of mean annual concentration was reconstructed from the application of the modern analogue technique to dinocyst assemblages. The use of an updated database, which includes 1492 sites and 66 taxa, yields sea ice concentration estimates with an accuracy of ±1.1/10. Holocene reconstructions of sea ice cover were made from dinocyst counts in 35 cores of the northern North Atlantic and Arctic seas. In the Canadian Arctic, the results show high sea ice concentration (>7/10) with little variations throughout the interval. In contrast, in Arctic areas such as the Chukchi Sea and the Barents Sea, the reconstructions show large amplitude variations of sea ice cover suggesting millennial type oscillations with a pacing almost opposite in western vs. eastern Arctic. Other records show tenuous changes with some regionalism either in trends or sea ice cover variability. During the mid-Holocene, and notably at 6 Â± 0.5 ka, minimum sea ice concentration is recorded in the eastern Fram Strait, northern Baffin Bay and Labrador Sea. However, this minimum cannot be extrapolated at the scale of the Arctic and circum-Arctic. The comparison of recent observations and reconstructions suggests larger variations in the Arctic sea ice cover during the last decades than throughout the Holocene.

 

 

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379113002643

[knocker]

Soil carbon 'blowing in the wind'

 

Top soil is rich in nutrients and carbon but is increasingly being blown away by events such as the ‘Red Dawn’ in Sydney in 2009.

 

When wind lifts carbon dust into the atmosphere it changes the amount and location of soil carbon. 

Some carbon falls back to the ground while some leaves Australia or ends up in the ocean.

 

CSIRO research scientist Dr Adrian Chappell and an international team of experts in wind erosion and dust emission recently calculated the extent of these carbon dust emissions.

 

http://www.csiro.au/en/Portals/Media/Soil-carbon-blowing-in-the-wind.aspx

Edited August 6, 2013 by knocker

[jethro]

Not convinced about that study.....Dust, unless ejected with force by something like a Volcano, doesn't get very high in the atmosphere. Dust particles act as seeds for water droplets and thus clouds, saturation point is reached and it all rains back down to Earth. It is a combination of this, and the Nitrogen washing out of the atmosphere, which creates an almost instant greening effect on grass, hence why there is a distinct difference between watering a lawn with a hose and it being watered via rain - it's not just the moisture which greens the grass up.

[Interitus]

Not convinced about that study.....Dust, unless ejected with force by something like a Volcano, doesn't get very high in the atmosphere. Dust particles act as seeds for water droplets and thus clouds, saturation point is reached and it all rains back down to Earth. It is a combination of this, and the Nitrogen washing out of the atmosphere, which creates an almost instant greening effect on grass, hence why there is a distinct difference between watering a lawn with a hose and it being watered via rain - it's not just the moisture which greens the grass up.

 

I think it's more a question of understanding the carbon balance - is it being transported from arid areas which are acting as a sink to wetter areas or the ocean where it may be more prone to release as CO2, or indeed are these alternative sinks.

[knocker]

State of the Climate in 2012: Highlights

Worldwide, 2012 was among the 10 warmest years on record according to the 2012 State of the Climate report released online today by the American Meteorological Society (AMS). The peer-reviewed report, with scientists from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, NC serving as lead editors, was compiled by 384 scientists from 52 countries. It provides a detailed update on global climate indicators, notable weather events, and other data collected by environmental monitoring stations and instruments on land, sea, ice, and sky.

 

 

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/state-climate-2012-highlights

[jethro]

I think it's more a question of understanding the carbon balance - is it being transported from arid areas which are acting as a sink to wetter areas or the ocean where it may be more prone to release as CO2, or indeed are these alternative sinks.

 

Oh, I get that - it just doesn't seem like it should rate very highly in the grand scheme of things, certainly not to the point where it needs to be entered into a climate model. I'm all for fine tuning, but this seems to cross the line into nitpicking and doing studies, just because they can. If they really want to address the issue of land use, carbon capture/release and how it impacts upon  climate, there are much bigger topics to start with first. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

So you are going against the MetO and climate scientists who say there has been a pause in rising temps for over 15 years.

 

http://judithcurry.com/2013/06/12/sociology-of-the-pause/

 

http://judithcurry.com/2013/07/23/uk-met-office-on-the-pause/more-12279

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/recent-pause-in-warming

 

 

JC is not an official source.

As has been repeatedly pointed out to you, and as the Met Office confirms, it's a relative pause compared to the previous strong trend.

 

Global mean surface temperatures rose rapidly from the 1970s, but have been relatively flat over the most recent 15 years to 2013.

 

As the data shows, even the MetO data, it's relatively flat, as in, not statistically significant. But the climate is still warming.

 

[UV-RAY]

JC is not an official source.

As has been repeatedly pointed out to you, and as the Met Office confirms, it's a relative pause compared to the previous strong trend.

Global mean surface temperatures rose rapidly from the 1970s, but have been relatively flat over the most recent 15 years to 2013.

As the data shows, even the MetO data, it's relatively flat, as in, not statistically significant. But the climate is still warming.

Judith Curry is a well respected climate scientist who works for the MetO so how can she not be an official source, unless your knowledge of the science far exceeds hers that is. As for the pause, well unless your in possession of a tardis then there is no way of knowing whether or not warming will resume. Remember not one scientist or climate model predicted a pause so I would tread on egg shells either way in making predictions. Edited August 8, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[VillagePlank]

How do you know it's not statistically significant, though? A quick internet search reveals no scientific papers (that have been peer-reviewed) that actually publish the test statistic that verifies this claim.

Remember not one scientist or climate model predicted a pause so I would tread on egg shells either way in making predictions.

 

Wrong. Hansen did, but he took out the connection between CO2 and temperature, and CFCs and temperature in order to achieve that Scenario. It was peer-reviewed, and published, too, back in the 1980s

 

 

Scenario C is the one that's closest, and it's the one without the CO2 temperature connection (he assumed CO2 would drastically be curtailed after 2000 to such a degree that it would have no influence on temperature, to be exact)

Edited August 8, 2013 by Sparkicle