New Research

[knocker]

More on the role of El Niño in recent temperatures from tamino

 

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2013/09/02/el-nino-and-the-non-spherical-cow/

[knocker]

And...........

 

A great am read, from our TX state climatologist RT.: Nice contextualization of 'hiatus' paper

 

http://blog.chron.com/climateabyss/2013/08/learning-from-the-hiatus/

[Coast]

Are crop pests on the move because of climate change?

 

 

Climate change 'driving spread of crop pests'

 

Climate change is helping pests and diseases that attack crops to spread around the world, a study suggests.

 

Researchers from the universities of Exeter and Oxford have found crop pests are moving at an average of two miles (3km) a year. The team said they were heading towards the north and south poles, and were establishing in areas that were once too cold for them to live in. The research is published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

 

Currently, it is estimated that between 10% and 16% of the world's crops are lost to disease outbreaks. The researchers warn that rising global temperatures could make the problem worse. Dr Dan Bebber, the lead author of the study from the University of Exeter, said: "Global food security is one of the major challenges we are going to face over the next few decades. "We really don't want to be losing any more of our crops than is absolutely necessary to pests and pathogens."

 

Trade transport

 

To investigate the problem, the researchers looked at the records of 612 crop pests and pathogens from around the world that had been collected over the past 50 years. These included fungi, such as wheat rust, which is devastating harvests in Africa, the Middle East and Asia; insects like the mountain pine beetle that is destroying trees in the US; as well as bacteria, viruses and microscopic nematode worms. Each organism's distribution was different - some butterflies and insects were shifting quickly, at about 12 miles (20km) a year; other bacterium species had hardly moved. On average, however, the pests had been spreading by two miles each year since 1960. "We detect a shift in their distribution away form the equator and towards the poles," explained Dr Bebber,

 

The researchers believe that the global trade in crops is mainly responsible for the movement of pests and pathogens from country to country. However, the organisms can only take hold in new areas if the conditions are suitable, and the researchers believe that warming temperatures have enabled the creature to survive at higher latitudes.

 

Dr Bebber said: "The most convincing hypothesis is that global warming has caused this shift. "One example is the Colorado potato beetle. Warming appears to have allowed it to move northwards through Europe to into Finland and Norway where the cold winters would normally knock the beetle back." The researchers said that better information about where the pests and pathogens were and where they were moving was needed to fully assess the scale of the problem. "We also need to protect our borders, we have to quarantine plants to reduce the chances that pests and pathogens are able to get into our agricultural systems," added Dr Bebber.

 

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23899019

[knocker]

Earth's cryosphere, one of Earth's six spheres, is composed of all its frozen structures including sea ice, ice caps, and permafrost. Understanding changes in the cryosphere provides scientists with valuable information about the past, present, and future of the planet. Amazingly, 99% of Earth's fresh water is held in two massive ice sheets. ICESat-2 is a satellite designed to help scientists learn more about Earth's ice and the role ice plays in climate.

 

[knocker]

West Antarctica ice sheet existed 20 million years earlier than previously thought

 

(Santa Barbara, Calif.) –– The results of research conducted by professors at UC Santa Barbara and colleagues mark the beginning of a new paradigm for our understanding of the history of Earth's great global ice sheets. The research shows that, contrary to the popularly held scientific view, an ice sheet on West Antarctica existed 20 million years earlier than previously thought.

 

The findings indicate that ice sheets first grew on the West Antarctic subcontinent at the start of a global transition from warm greenhouse conditions to a cool icehouse climate 34 million years ago. Previous computer simulations were unable to produce the amount of ice that geological records suggest existed at that time because neighboring East Antarctica alone could not support it. The findings were published today in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.

 

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-09/uoc--wai090413.php

Edited September 4, 2013 by knocker

[knocker]

Imprint of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation on southwestern US climate: past, present, and future

Abstract

The surface air temperature increase in the southwestern United States was much larger during the last few decades than the increase in the global mean. While the global temperature increased by about 0.5 Â°C from 1975 to 2000, the southwestern US temperature increased by about 2 Â°C. If such an enhanced warming persisted for the next few decades, the southwestern US would suffer devastating consequences. To identify major drivers of southwestern climate change we perform a multiple-linear regression of the past 100 years of the southwestern US temperature and precipitation. We find that in the early twentieth century the warming was dominated by a positive phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) with minor contributions from increasing solar irradiance and concentration of greenhouse gases. The late twentieth century warming was about equally influenced by increasing concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) and a positive phase of the AMO. The current southwestern US drought is associated with a near maximum AMO index occurring nearly simultaneously with a minimum in the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index. A similar situation occurred in mid-1950s when precipitation reached its minimum within the instrumental records. If future atmospheric concentrations of GHGs increase according to the IPCC scenarios (Solomon et al. in Climate change 2007: working group I. The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge, 996 pp, 2007), climate models project a fast rate of southwestern warming accompanied by devastating droughts (Seager et al. in Science 316:1181–1184, 2007; Williams et al. in Nat Clim Chang, 2012). However, the current climate models have not been able to predict the behavior of the AMO and PDO indices. The regression model does support the climate models (CMIP3 and CMIP5 AOGCMs) projections of a much warmer and drier southwestern US only if the AMO changes its 1,000 years cyclic behavior and instead continues to rise close to its 1975–2000 rate. If the AMO continues its quasi-cyclic behavior the US SW temperature should remain stable and the precipitation should significantly increase during the next few decades.

 

 

http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs00382-013-1933-3.pdf

[knocker]

Global warming has increased risk of record heat, say Stanford scientists

 

Researchers calculate that intense heat like that in the summer of 2012 is up to four times more likely to occur now than in pre-industrial America, when there was much less carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

 

http://news.stanford.edu/pr/2013/pr-record-heat-study-090613.html

Edited September 5, 2013 by knocker

[knocker]

Re-evaluation of MODIS MCD43 Greenland albedo accuracy and trends

Abstract

In this study, the accuracy of the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) combined Terra (MOD) and Aqua (MYD) 16-day albedo product (MCD43) is evaluated through comparisons with eleven years of in situ measurements at 17 automatic weather stations on the Greenland Ice Sheet. Taking into consideration accuracy issues with in situ observations, results show that utilizing all high-quality, cloud-free MODIS retrievals gives physically realistic ice sheet albedo values for solar zenith angles less than 75°, with a root-mean-square error of 0.067 (RMSE) and an overall mean bias of + 0.022 (with the MODIS data biased slightly high relative to the in situ data). Using this data set, changes in ice sheet albedo from 2000 to 2012 are documented. Analysis reveals negative trends in ice sheet albedo during summer over the 13-year data record, with persistent negative albedo anomalies in recent years over western Greenland. During summer 2012, extensive surface melt resulted in a Greenland area-averaged albedo anomaly for June, July August relative to 2000–2009 of − 0.044 that significantly increased the amount of total absorbed solar radiation and surface melt.

 

 

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425713002356

[knocker]

Climate change will upset vital ocean chemical cycles

 

New research from the University of East Anglia shows that rising ocean temperatures will upset natural cycles of carbon dioxide, nitrogen and phosphorous.

 

http://www.uea.ac.uk/mac/comm/media/press/2013/September/ocean-plankton

Edited September 8, 2013 by knocker

[knocker]

Breaking deep-sea waves reveal mechanism for global ocean mixing

 

Waves breaking over sandy beaches are captured in countless tourist photos. But enormous waves breaking deep in the ocean are seldom seen, although they play a crucial role in long-term climate cycles.

 

A University of Washington study for the first time recorded such a wave breaking in a key bottleneck for circulation in the world’s largest ocean. The study was published online this month in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

 

http://www.washington.edu/news/2013/09/09/breaking-deep-sea-waves-reveal-mechanism-for-global-ocean-mixing/

Edited September 9, 2013 by knocker

[knocker]

Gas flaring and household stoves speed Arctic thaw

 

Gas flaring by the oil industry and smoke from residential burning contributes more black carbon pollution to Arctic than previously thought—potentially speeding the melting of Arctic sea ice and contributing to the fast rate of warming in the region.

 

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/about/news/Oil_industry_and_household_stoves_speed_Arctic_thaw.en.html

Edited September 10, 2013 by knocker

[knocker]

Global warming could change strength of El Niño

 

http://www.climatescience.org.au/content/346-global-warming-could-change-strength-el-ni%C3%B1o

Edited September 11, 2013 by knocker

[knocker]

Unprecedented Rate and Scale of Ocean Acidification Found in the Arctic

 

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Acidification of the Arctic Ocean is occurring faster than projected according to new findings published in the journal PLOS ONE.  The increase in rate is being blamed on rapidly melting sea ice, a process that may have important consequences for health of the Arctic ecosystem.

 

http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3686&from=rss

[knocker]

Underlying ocean melts ice shelf, speeds up glacier movement

 

UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. -- Warm ocean water, not warm air, is melting the Pine Island Glacier's floating ice shelf in Antarctica and may be the culprit for increased melting of other ice shelves, according to an international team of researchers.

 

"We've been dumping heat into the atmosphere for years and the oceans have been doing their job, taking it out of the air and into the ocean," said Sridhar Anandakrishnan, professor of geosciences, Penn State. "Eventually, with all that atmospheric heat, the oceans will heat up."

 

http://news.psu.edu/story/287448/2013/09/12/research/underlying-ocean-melts-ice-shelf-speeds-glacier-movement

Edited September 12, 2013 by knocker

[Coast]

Sorry to quote one of the Daily's, but you'll get the drift of the article:

 

Britain's great climate change divide: Winters in the North are becoming warmer - while in the South it's summers that are getting hotter

• [*]In the South the hottest 5% of days have got up to 2°C hotter [*]In the North, the hottest days are not getting hotter so quickly [*]In northern areas the number of nights during which temperatures fall below zero has decreased most substantially - by at least 10%
  

Britain’s North-South divide even applies to the rate of climate change, new research shows. Scientists have discovered that the climate in the South of Britain is warming much more quickly than that in the North of the country in summer. However, winter temperatures are increasing more quickly in the North.

 

 

The researchers also discovered that some of the hottest days and coldest nights in parts of Europe have warmed more than four times the global average since 1950. The new paper by researchers at the University of Warwick and the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science, revealed that the hottest five per cent of days in summer have warmed fastest in a band from southern England and northern France to Denmark.  In this band, the hottest five per cent of days have got hotter by more than 2°C in many places.

 

By contrast, the average and slightly hotter than average days have warmed most in regions further south in France and Germany. In eastern Spain and central Italy there has been broad warming across all types of days, but in most places those days which are cooler than average have not warmed so much. Most regions of Europe have seen little change in the temperatures of the coolest summer days although in eastern Spain and central Italy these days have warmed along with all other types of summer days.

 

 

Average temperature days in these regions of eastern Spain and central Italy have warmed by more than 2°C in many locations.The results show little warming in summer daytime temperatures for most locations in Norway and Sweden, for all types of summer days – hot, average and cool.

 

In Europe, the coldest five per cent of winter nights have warmed most in eastern France, western Germany and Belgium where changes of more than two or even 2.5°C are not uncommon. The coldest five per cent of winter days have not changed as much in these regions but in northern Italy and the Balkans changes of over 1.5 or 2°C are seen in the data. In Spain and much of Italy there has been little change in winter night time temperatures of all types – warm, average and cool.

 

In Norway and Sweden many regions have seen large changes in winter night time temperatures for average and colder than average nights. Warmer than average nights in this region have warmed less.In the United Kingdom the frequency of nights which fall below zero has decreased most substantially in the north east where reductions of at least 10 per cent are seen in the observations for some locations.

 

The researchers translated observations of weather into observations of climate change using a gridded dataset of observations stretching back to 1950. The paper points out that some locations and temperature thresholds have seen little change since 1950.  The authors suggest that the results highlight the scale of the difference between global change and the local climate changes felt by individuals.Dr David Stainforth, the lead author of the paper, said: ‘Climate is fundamentally the distributions of weather.  â€˜As climate changes, the distributions change. But they don’t just shift, they change shape. ‘How they change shape depends on where you are. ‘In Britain, climate change will feel very different if you live in Northumbria to if you live in Oxfordshire - different again in Devon.’

 

He added: ‘Our results also illustrate that the international goal of limiting the increase in global average temperature to 2°C would involve far greater changes for some places and for some aspects of climate, and therefore for particular individuals, communities and industries.’ Professor Sandra Chapman of the University of Warwick said: ‘It is common to discuss climate change in terms of changes in global average temperatures but these can be far from people’s perceptions of climate change.

 

‘The results in this paper begin to provide a picture of how local climate has been changing across Europe. It is a picture which is closer to that experienced by individuals.’ Dr Stainforth concluded: ‘Changes in local climate pose challenges for decision makers across society not just when preparing for the climate of the future but even when planning for the climate of today. ‘We need to design buildings so that they don’t overheat, decide which are the best crops to plant, and even plan for variations in large scale productivity. ‘These would all benefit from knowledge of how the climate distribution has changed at particular locations. This work begins to provide such information.’

 

 

Image estimates changes in night-time winter temperatures over a 43 year period. In the UK, the largest changes can be seen in Plot E which shows the very coldest five per cent of winter days. These have warmed by more than 1.5 degrees, with these changes focused mainly in the North East

 

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2418469/UK-weather-South-really-IS-hotter-North-summer-least.html#ixzz2el8R5fkS 

Edited September 13, 2013 by Coast

[knocker]

Interesting video

 

The introductory video to the Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment (ATTREX), describing its science and mission objectives.

 

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10151564215686621&set=vb.365836303462945&type=2&theater

[knocker]

Recent sea-level rise is 3.2 mm/yr. If all thermal expansion, this is about 2 W/m2 globallly.

 

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/pia16294.html#.UjTkwX-qU60

[knocker]

Lawrence Livermore study finds human activity affects vertical structure of atmospheric temperature

 

Human influences have directly impacted the latitude/altitude pattern of atmospheric temperature. That is the conclusion of a new report by scientists from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and six other scientific institutions. The research compares multiple satellite records of atmospheric temperature change with results from a large, multi-model archive of simulations.

 

https://www.llnl.gov/news/newsreleases/2013/Sep/NR-13-09-05.html#.UjixK3-qU60

Edited September 17, 2013 by knocker

[knocker]

News Story - Undersea mountains provide crucial piece in climate prediction puzzle

 

A mystery in the ocean near Antarctica has been solved by researchers who have long puzzled over how deep and mid-depth ocean waters are mixed. They found that sea water mixes dramatically as it rushes over undersea mountains in Drake Passage - the channel between the southern tip of South America and the Antarctic continent. Mixing of water layers in the oceans is crucial in regulating the Earth’s climate and ocean currents.

 

http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/about_bas/news/news_story.php?id=2321

Edited September 18, 2013 by knocker

[loafer]

Very interesting. I wonder what the latent capacity for heat absorption there is taking into account this affect?

[knocker]

Late Cretaceous Period was likely ice-free Study results could foreshadow Earth's future climate, MU researcher says

 

COLUMBIA, Mo. – For years, scientists have thought that a continental ice sheet formed during the Late Cretaceous Period more than 90 million years ago when the climate was much warmer than it is today. Now, a University of Missouri researcher has found evidence suggesting that no ice sheet formed at this time. This finding could help environmentalists and scientists predict what the earth's climate will be as carbon dioxide levels continue to rise.

 

"Currently, carbon dioxide levels are just above 400 parts per million (ppm), up approximately 120 ppm in the last 150 years and rising about 2 ppm each year," said Ken MacLeod, a professor of geological sciences at MU. "In our study, we found that during the Late Cretaceous Period, when carbon dioxide levels were around 1,000 ppm, there were no continental ice sheets on earth. So, if carbon dioxide levels continue to rise, the earth will be ice-free once the climate comes into balance with the higher levels."

 

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-09/uom-lcp092413.php

Edited September 24, 2013 by knocker

[Interitus]

An interesting overview of the state of play according to satellite data-

 

 

The role of satellite remote sensing in climate change studies

 

Satellite remote sensing has provided major advances in understanding the climate system and its changes, by quantifying processes and spatio-temporal states of the atmosphere, land and oceans. In this Review, we highlight some important discoveries about the climate system that have not been detected by climate models and conventional observations; for example, the spatial pattern of sea-level rise and the cooling effects of increased stratospheric aerosols. New insights are made feasible by the unparalleled global- and fine-scale spatial coverage of satellite observations. Nevertheless, the short duration of observation series and their uncertainties still pose challenges for capturing the robust long-term trends of many climate variables. We point out the need for future work and future systems to make better use of remote sensing in climate change studies.

 

http://www.cess.tsinghua.edu.cn/publish/ess/7783/20130916142523168145824/nclimate1908.pdf

[Methuselah]

On the question of research: Why are the very folk, that criticize the amount of money spent on discovering and understanding climate forcings, also the first to remind us of how little we know about climate forcings? 

[Interitus]

On the question of research: Why are the very folk, that criticize the amount of money spent on discovering and understanding climate forcings, also the first to remind us of how little we know about climate forcings? 

 

So they can get more funding for more research, be cutting their own throats if we knew everything 

[loafer]

I don't think they are. The complaint is that the science is biased because the money goes to those who are more likely to come up with the answer the funder wants to hear...