September 2010 Cet

[Terminal Moraine]

I'll try a marginally below average 13.5c

[SNOWPLOUGH]

Il go for 13.7c please, some chilly nights balanced out by some warm days...

SP

[damianslaw]

Quite pleased I have left my guess till now rather than a few days ago. The current pattern change has thrown a bit of a spanner in my predictions for the month i.e. I was expecting a very unsettled cool start.. Anyhow, my prediction is slightly above normal at 13.9 degrees, if you'd asked me a few days back I would have firmly said below average.

Suspect the early settled spell will take a bit of time to break down completely, thereafter a generally unsettled month with suppressed maxima again just like august but minima will hold up, in contrast to the first part of the month when maixima will be higher than normal but minima quite a bit below. Everything will balance itself out hence my near average guess. I don't foresee a month like sept 2005 or 2006 the atlantic will have too much vigour this year to allow a predominantly settled month. Just hope it is more interesting than last september which was incredibly uninteresting. Generally september for me is the dullest month of the year for weather - I'm always quite pleased to see the end of it in this respect, conversely it can be the best month for generally pleasant weather and with May the best for outdoor activities a good time to take a holiday in this country unlike August which I never rate for many reasons..

[The watcher]

Watcher says 13.5c

I think settled conditions will prolong a little longer than expected, so a CET that does not tell the full story with pleasant days and chilly nights for the first 10 days. Something a little more unsettled during mid month with alot of cloud pegging minimums up then back to an Azores ridge for the last week.

[Thundery wintry showers]

After a cool quiet start it looks like southerly winds will be frequent for a while, which should give a strong positive anomaly for the first half of September, and MJO composites suggest a fair amount of high pressure. I am going with 15.3C.

[Gavin P]

A chance of September being warmer than August if that comes off?

[Thundery wintry showers]

It would certainly run it close! September warmer than August happened as recently as 2006 in the CET zone, and it also happened locally in 1999.

[Gavin P]

Yeah, I remember it happening in 2006. Was the first time it happened with the CET for a long time wasn't it?

[Thundery wintry showers]

According to Kevin's post back in the September 2006 thread, by implication it was the first such occurrence since 1956.

[mk13]

My punt for September is 15.1C

[Gavin P]

According to Kevin's post back in the September 2006 thread, by implication it was the first such occurrence since 1956.

Thanks.

[summer blizzard]

First five days of September look to average above 15C, however it looks quite cool afterward in my opinion.

[TonyH]

13.6c please

[Jack Wales]

14.1°C is my punt

[Paul T]

14.5 for mr t please

[reef]

14.4C

[Gavin P]

I'm going to increase my guess by half a degree - 13.4 is my final guess, thanks.

[AderynCoch]

14.3C

[BornFromTheVoid]

The 06z GFS would have us at about 16.3C by the 7th, about 2C above above. It was close to or the highest on the ensembles, but not by a lot. Most likely we'll be in the high 15s after the first week. Will probably increase my CET guess later this evening, unless the models show some remarkable switch around!

[Don]

I've not been accessing the internet for nearly 3 weeks due to being away, but I will go for a CET of 14.5C

[summer blizzard]

Quite worrying for those of predicting a cooler September, but the GFS would not give us a cool day until the 12th, so possibly a very warm first half to September.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

I'd like to significantly change my prediction to 14.7C (from 14C), which is a degree or so above average. With these Indian summer charts it's hard to see where a below average month is going to come from so I think my first guess was too cautious... I might still be on the low side!

[Sunlover]

14.6 for me please

[Snowly does it]

14.8

[DR Hosking]

I will go for 14.5c