September 2010 Cet

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum for today is 14.8C and maxima look to be around 19C so a rise to 15.7C tomorrow. After that the drop begins, CET should be about 15.4C by the 15th, 15.0C by the 17th, 14.7C by the 19th. Things turn a little milder after that, with a lot of uncertainty surrounding the final thrid of the month.

Below average just on the verge of being ruled out!

[summer blizzard]

It certainly looks like we will see a large drop over the next few days to around 14.5C. From the 20th, there is some model divergance, with GFS keeping below average weather to the end of the month, and both JMA and ECWMF keeping much more average weather.

Given the ouputs of the past few days, i think that we can rule out a CET above 15C and below 13C.

[damianslaw]

Could be some notably cold nights ahead for September under a cold airstream by the end of the week and more importantly clearing skies with light winds. Watch the CET take a notable tumble, growing signs the cooler theme will bed in for some time...

[Stu_London]

GFS 00z reckons the next 7 days are all fallers

Wed - 13C

Thu - 12C

Fri - 10.5C

Sat - 9.5C

Sun - 13C

Mon - 13C

Tue - 13.5C

I suspect actual values might be a bit higher, but if they did come off as above, we would be at 14.5C by Tuesday 21st September.

Early indications from the ensembles are that the last 3rd of the month stays on the below average side meaning those with sub 14C punts shouldn't be tearing up their betting slips just yet.

[Gavin P]

We're still in the running then Stu?

[DAVID SNOW]

GFS 00z reckons the next 7 days are all fallers

Wed - 13C

Thu - 12C

Fri - 10.5C

Sat - 9.5C

Sun - 13C

Mon - 13C

Tue - 13.5C

I suspect actual values might be a bit higher, but if they did come off as above, we would be at 14.5C by Tuesday 21st September.

Early indications from the ensembles are that the last 3rd of the month stays on the below average side meaning those with sub 14C punts shouldn't be tearing up their betting slips just yet.

14.1 to 14.3 looking good at this point

[Fozfoster]

14.1 to 14.3 looking good at this point

COME ON 13.7c bang on average.

[DAVID SNOW]

COME ON 13.7c bang on average.

Time will tell,

But a little low you maybe

[summer blizzard]

GFS certainly keeps the cool trend going, though ECWMF disagrees with much warmer weather.

[Fozfoster]

Time will tell,

But a little low you maybe

Think you could be right Igor is the key.

Edited September 15, 2010 by fozfoster

[summer blizzard]

CET rose to 15.7C to the 14th, how quickly it falls should be good to watch.

[Stu_London]

14.1 to 14.3 looking good at this point

I think that is probably as low as it could go - before any adjustments.

[Milhouse]

There are signs of a brief return to warmer conditions next week as LP sits just to the west. Maxes up to 20-22c possible and mins in double figures according to the 06z. So we could even see a rise again during next week, but the overall trend between now and the end of the month is down, as it nearly always is in Autumn.

[beng]

http://www.climate-uk.com/

15.1 according to Philip Eden using the Manley series - rather than the Met Office version, where the stations used were changed in 1974 - thus surely making a 61-90 average rather meaningless. Anyway the point is that the Met Office figure is probably too high and ought to be adjusted down quite a lot at the end of the month - all being well.

[summer blizzard]

CET dropped to 15.4C, a finish around 0.5C-1.0C above average is now highly likely based on model outputs.

[summer blizzard]

CET dropped to 15.4C, a finish around 0.5C-1.0C above average is now highly likely based on model outputs.

CET dropped to 15.2C, models still indicate a finish around 14.5C is likely.

[The PIT]

Should be the last of the drops for a while as warmer air comes back in. Still not convinced by any of the patterns shown by the models at the moment. However if they right it'll probably end up around 15c

[summer blizzard]

Should be the last of the drops for a while as warmer air comes back in. Still not convinced by any of the patterns shown by the models at the moment. However if they right it'll probably end up around 15c

I disagree, coming from such a high point only next tuesday-thursday look like rises (going from ECWMF, GFS was a warm outlier), most other days look average and should record small drops.

[The PIT]

I disagree, coming from such a high point only next tuesday-thursday look like rises (going from ECWMF, GFS was a warm outlier), most other days look average and should record small drops.

Still showing a warm up tonight. Certainly my guess of 13.5 or 13.7 is miles off. Like I said I have little faith in the modelling at the moment so it could still go either way.

[Fozfoster]

Still showing a warm up tonight. Certainly my guess of 13.5 or 13.7 is miles off. Like I said I have little faith in the modelling at the moment so it could still go either way.

Yes my 13.7 not looking good.

[summer blizzard]

I cannot see the CET dropping below 14C, so i agree that an above average outcome is likely however looking at the GFS, JMA and ECWMF, wednesday and thursday are definite risers with tuesday and friday static, afterward JMA and ECWMF bring much cooler weather to end the month while GFS maintains an average temperature.

If i had to make a precise prediction now, i would say 14.3C, 0.6C above average.

[Don]

I cannot see the CET dropping below 14C, so i agree that an above average outcome is likely however looking at the GFS, JMA and ECWMF, wednesday and thursday are definite risers with tuesday and friday static, afterward JMA and ECWMF bring much cooler weather to end the month while GFS maintains an average temperature.

If i had to make a precise prediction now, i would say 14.3C, 0.6C above average.

A very similar CET to September last year then. I agree that low to mid 14's looks the best bet at the moment.

[Backtrack]

13.4c will be my guess.

[Thundery wintry showers]

If this southerly comes off and lasts for a few days maybe my 15.3C prediction might not be too high by that large a margin, though I doubt we'll end up at 15C or above at the end of the month.

[DAVID SNOW]

I cannot see the CET dropping below 14C, so i agree that an above average outcome is likely however looking at the GFS, JMA and ECWMF, wednesday and thursday are definite risers with tuesday and friday static, afterward JMA and ECWMF bring much cooler weather to end the month while GFS maintains an average temperature.

If i had to make a precise prediction now, i would say 14.3C, 0.6C above average.

Indeed.

My 14.4 not looking too bad ATM.