Major Hurricane Earl

[Paranoid]

GDFL still forecasting Earl to become a Cat 5 (and to flucuate between 4 and 5 a few times). SSTs in the area are above average at around 29-30c so some RI could be on the cards.

[Iceberg]

Nice central eye forming, last vortex indicated a closed 20nm eye, this pass has just found pressure falling nicely, now sub 980, winds have yet to respond and the vortex from this cross has not been released yet.

172100 1720N 05847W 8425 01328 9797 +210 +167 272013 015 031 004 03

172130 1722N 05847W 8432 01316 9788 +219 +171 289005 008 028 004 03

172200 1723N 05847W 8428 01315 9784 +221 +177 084004 008 027 003 03

172230 1725N 05848W 8425 01319 9785 +218 +183 076015 018 026 003 03

172300 1726N 05849W 8431 01316 9793 +202 +189 064019 020 028 006 03

Going hand in hand with the pressure falls is the eye clearing (you can see it sunken in the zoomed visual sat below).

Edited August 29, 2010 by Iceberg

[Iceberg]

The eye has opened again in the NW, slightly wider temp differential, but nothing wind wise to support raising him above 65-70kts.

I'll mention the track once the ECM comes out, but if you lived in the GOM/Caribbean I wouldn't look at the Canadian model.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072010

A. 29/17:21:40Z

B. 17 deg 22 min N

058 deg 47 min W

C. 850 mb 1248 m

D. 65 kt

E. 141 deg 35 nm

F. 202 deg 60 kt

G. 141 deg 37 nm

H. 978 mb

I. 18 C / 1531 m

J. 22 C / 1523 m

K. 17 C / NA

L. OPEN NW

M. C12

N. 12345 / 8

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF306 0207A EARL OB 20

MAX FL WIND 79 KT NE QUAD 15:24:00Z

MOAT 8NM WIDE CENTERED 16NM RADIUS AROUND EYE NW THRU EAST

;

Edited August 29, 2010 by Iceberg

[Paranoid]

Latest advisory.

000

WTNT32 KNHC 291746

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010

200 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF EARL APPROACHING THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA AND

BARBUDA...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.4N 58.9W

ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM E OF ANTIGUA

ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF ST. MARTIN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA

* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND

PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE

NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED

BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE

58.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...

24 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN

FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE

FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE

NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT

48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY

TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160

MILES...260 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE HURRICANE

HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE

WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY

EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO

SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH

HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1

TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF

ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE

ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS

OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH

POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS

OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED

MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE

RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

Pressure has dropped 7mb since 4pm, which equates to a little over 2mb an hour. Getting close to the rate required for RI. We should see the winds respond soon (although probably just after recon has left i imagine).

Edited August 29, 2010 by Paranoid

[Paranoid]

000

WTNT32 KNHC 292046

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 18

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010

500 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL STRENGTHENS...HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD

ISLANDS...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING SOON...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.6N 59.5W

ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM E OF BARBUDA

ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM E OF ST. MARTIN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING

FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA

* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING

AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS

TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS

CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...THIS GENERAL

MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST MONDAY

NIGHT OR TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL

PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND

MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS

EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A

MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175

MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE

HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND HURRICANE

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA

BY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER

THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE

CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2

TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF

ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY

LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS

OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH

POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS

OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED

MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE

RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

[NL]

Hurricane Earl closely followed by 97L, pretty sure it'll be named Fiona soon. Models suggesting Earl will just miss the US mainland perhaps affecting the North Carolina coast. The models however suggest the next one (97L) to become a very powerful major hurricane.

Edited August 29, 2010 by NL

[Paranoid]

Yes, it's interesting times out in the Atlantic at the moment. Does anyone know when the next recon is due to head out to Earl?

[Iceberg]

Sorry I went out last night and didn't have time to do an update.

Looking this morning though and alot is happening still with Earl, so sorry for the length of post

Firstly how Earl is now, well NHC have upped him to an 85Kt CAT 2 based on the 97kts flight winds which seem spot on to me. The final Vortex before Recon left a couple of hrs ago, confirm some steady pressure falls over night now down to 969mb, apart from the 97kt winds in the NW quad (which isn't the strongest quad) the most important thing IMO is the stable closed eye at a nice 30nm and the 8C temp differential between inner and outer eye which is a good indication of the eye clearing.

I can't find anything to suggest that intensification and pressure drops are not continuing so it won't be long at all (possibly next recon) until Earl is made a Major CAT 3.

Recent IR sats show the eye is clearing further and a very large CDO is around it with -80 Cloud tops and strong convection.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072010

A. 30/05:00:30Z

B. 18 deg 02 min N

061 deg 38 min W

C. 700 mb 2839 m

D. 71 kt

E. 144 deg 17 nm

F. 237 deg 68 kt

G. 144 deg 20 nm

H. 969 mb

I. 8 C / 3051 m

J. 16 C / 3027 m

K. 7 C / NA

L. CLOSED

M. C30

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF300 0307A EARL OB 17

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 97 KT NW QUAD 05:10:00Z

PR doppler should have a good view over the next day or, giving us 24hr radar coverage of the eye.

Moving on to track and what I was hinting at yesterday seems to be occuring and I am sure NHC are talking to their political masters about what to say and when to say it.

3 Graphics below, one showing the Google map for reference, showing Rhode Island, NYC, Boston etc.

One showing the ECM and GFS 00Z runs this morning.

One showing the NHC track.

The most obvious thing is that the tracks have shifted considerably westwards as feared and that NHC are now considerably out, their last update was released before the model output.

although we are not talking about a Direct hit on the mainland, we are only about 30-40 miles off Rhode Island and NYC, Manhatten, Moorhead and particularly Boston look like getting hit with something depending on just how big Earl gets, regardless of this Rain might well be a problem.

Any further shift, even a wobble westwards will be a national concern.

GFDL is still showing a CAT 5 for Earl and a very very big wind field.

NHC must move Earl's track west but the question will be how much and how much media attention it gets when the US wakes up.

I can just the imagine the US president being woken up in the middle of the night to be told that NHC have forecast a CAT 5 hurricane to hit NYC..... (Maybe a little melodramtic).

[Iceberg]

Just seen the radar for Earl and the eye looks in perfect health, RI must be a 40-60% probability now in the next 12hrs(which is roughly a 30mb fall in pressure, taking him to strong CAT 4).

Edited August 30, 2010 by Iceberg

[Iceberg]

Latest update is out and does shift everything further west, but not as far west as the ECM and GFS.

Rhode Island and Boston look particularly vunerable, with NYC and Manhatten very much at risk still.

Tide surges are estimated at 8-15ft, but it's still too far away to get this with very much accuracy.

Latest discussion does rather refer to the risks to the east US coast below, the bit in bold is a very good reminder, I'd imagine they were told not to talk us an east coast hit, but not to ignore it either. Re the Graphic this is the centre of the eye path, the eye will be 20-30 miles across, hurricane winds extending 80-100mph out and tropical winds 200+ miles

Intensity has been raised to 90kts.

SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED JUST PRIOR TO 0600 UTC...AN EYE HAS BEEN

OCCASIONALLY APPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND HAS BECOME

BETTER DEFINED WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 25 NM ON THE ST. MAARTEN

RADAR. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A FLIGHT LEVEL MAXIMUM WIND OF 97 KT

AT 0510 UTC...AND 0600 UTC DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 90 KT

FROM TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS

SET TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING IN THE

NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND IS GOOD ELSEWHERE...AND THE OVERALL

ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT

36 TO 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS

ONE...AND SHOWS EARL REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT 12

TO 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A BROAD PEAK IN INTENSITY BETWEEN 36 AND

72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...EARL SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT

MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE GFDL.

BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE

REMAINS 285/13. EARL WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN

THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 25N. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS

IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS

NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH

24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED

FARTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...AS EARL TURNS

NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING

FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. GIVEN THE LARGE

SHIFT IN THE MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO

THE LEFT...OR WEST...BUT STILL LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE

GUIDANCE SUITE.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK

FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS

UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT...IF ANY...PARTS OF

THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL LATER THIS

WEEK.

[peterf]

cheers iceberg.

[Paranoid]

Pressure is down to 965mb and winds are at 110mph. Should be a Cat 3 by the 4pm advisory.

[Iceberg]

Been doing a bit of reading and apparently the shape of the coastline prior to Boston makes it prone to winds in the NW quad.

Also a map below of the effects of a hurricane on the storm surge on long island.

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/nys_storm_surge_zones.pdf

anyway back to now and pressure is down to 962mb, widely below 970, so intensification is still ongoing.

115200 1818N 06306W 6974 02881 9701 +135 +135 295052 053 033 003 00

115230 1820N 06305W 6966 02877 9676 +144 +133 290047 050 032 002 03

115300 1821N 06303W 6967 02862 9668 +143 +109 288031 034 029 003 00

115330 1822N 06302W 6960 02858 9653 +150 +097 287027 030 000 000 03

115400 1824N 06302W 6962 02847 9646 +143 +101 283025 027 018 002 03

115430 1826N 06301W 6978 02825 9629 +157 +103 292017 019 022 003 03

115500 1828N 06301W 6963 02837 9618 +159 +106 303011 013 013 002 03

115530 1829N 06301W 6969 02825 9617 +155 +110 297003 006 009 001 03

115600 1831N 06300W 6967 02828 9618 +151 +113 111007 012 013 002 00

115630 1833N 06259W 6967 02828 9622 +150 +121 112018 020 008 001 03

$$

100+Kts are quite widespead in the NE quad, maxing out at 111 kts.

120100 1844N 06248W 6961 02913 //// +094 //// 137101 107 /// /// 05

120130 1845N 06247W 6967 02926 //// +090 //// 138103 106 043 022 05

120200 1846N 06246W 6982 02934 //// +073 //// 135108 111 028 007 05

120230 1847N 06244W 6960 02972 //// +083 //// 136103 104 064 010 05

120300 1848N 06243W 6967 02977 9844 +096 //// 138103 104 046 006 05

120330 1849N 06242W 6966 02990 9853 +100 //// 139099 100 036 004 05

This should be enough to classify her as a CAT 3 easily at the next advisory at 100kts.

Considering that the eye still isn't clear this has alot further to intensify yet.

[Paranoid]

NHC forecast Earl to max out at 135mph, although i suspecet given how much Danielle exceeded her forecast Earl could get a bit stronger than that. I'd estimate of 150mph max at 935-945mbar assuming the rate of intensification continues.

[Iceberg]

Latest Vortex says the eye is getting smaller and thats it open in the north.

Latest Doppler from PR which hows us the eye about 15 mins ago, indicates that the opening must be tiny, so we have a contracting eye.

What I find incredible is that the hurricane force winds go out for miles on the NE side way past the pressure going above 1000 as can be seen below lots of 75kts+ flight winds.

121700 1921N 06208W 6963 03127 0021 +090 +082 135079 079 023 002 03

121730 1922N 06207W 6969 03126 0027 +088 +081 135079 079 017 001 00

121800 1923N 06205W 6966 03135 0032 +087 +081 136079 079 027 002 00

121830 1924N 06204W 6967 03129 0040 +082 +082 137079 079 027 002 00

121900 1925N 06203W 6966 03136 0044 +082 +080 137078 078 027 002 00

121930 1926N 06202W 6967 03138 0046 +083 +076 137079 080 020 002 00

122000 1928N 06200W 6966 03143 0040 +089 +070 139079 080 038 003 03

122030 1929N 06159W 6967 03146 0051 +084 +067 138078 078 028 003 00

122100 1930N 06158W 6968 03141 0052 +085 +060 139077 078 024 003 00

122130 1931N 06157W 6967 03146 0054 +085 +057 140075 076 038 003 03

122200 1932N 06155W 6967 03149 0057 +085 +057 139073 075 024 002 03

122230 1933N 06154W 6967 03153 0059 +085 +057 139070 070 030 003 03

122300 1935N 06153W 6967 03152 0060 +085 +054 140068 070 035 004 03

122330 1936N

[Jayces]

If the track stays the same but everything shifts far enough West then this can't be good for the East coast.

I don't know how far the eye has to be from land to keep strong but let's say it was 25 miles from the coast but following the coast line from NYC NE then surely that would be very bad for that entire stretch of coastline as they have a cat 3/4 moving parralel to the coastline and I gues maintaining it's strength far longer then if it was travelling inland.

Of course with all weather it's all subject to change but I am sure the guys at the NHC are hoping Earl doesn't move anymore Westward.

Apologies if what I am suggesting is impossible, my knowledge of hurricanes is they are dangerous whatever catagory they are, they need open sea and warmth to get stronger and weaken over land and cooler waters.

[Iceberg]

It's very possible given the depth of hurricane winds anything within 100 miles of the eye could well get them, not to mention the storm surge, given what happened with Katrina, I have no doubt that FEMA are currently preparing evacuation plans in the event of it moving any further west, (they probably are talking about 30-40 million people)....and an estimate 100BN of insurance issues.

Sorry there at least two flight in Earl atm. Pressure now sub 960 at 959.4mb minimum.

122130 1825N 06309W 6435 03511 9596 +139 +085 311030 035 043 001 00

122200 1827N 06307W 6435 03504 9599 +131 +091 300012 017 029 001 00

122230 1828N 06305W 6436 03499 9594 +134 +075 219007 008 028 002 00

122300 1829N 06303W 6437 03498 9595 +133 +076 201011 015 030 001 00

122330 1830N 06301W 6435 03504 9605 +125 +093 185016 017 030 002 00

They seem to be throwing everything at it and I wouldn't be surprised if they have been told to get as much data as possible.

[geoffw]

this is quite scary ... some of my family live in cape cod, i hope they know the potential danger!

[Iceberg]

Yet another update from me, sorry.

The latest 06Z models have moved further west still (apart from GFDL), Below is HWRF and GFS plotted on Google earth and the GFS zoomed in from a global picture.

It might not look to close, but if you superimposed Earl as he currently is on that track (let alone any more intensification) he would give hurricane force winds to NY and Boston and a Direct Hit on Nova Scotia......

If we take GFDL then he would be a 938mb 105Kt Major hurricane.

The 12Z suite will be interesting to see if there is any further westerly movement.

[Gray-Wolf]

So those very early images of earl being a tad naughty may come to pass? U.S. open next 2 weeks ......rain stopped play on thurs/Fri?

[Iceberg]

Latest from the eye pass now down to 957 pressure 112 knts in the NE eye wall.

133400 1855N 06319W 6422 03587 9704 +100 +093 099105 108 079 024 00

133430 1853N 06319W 6449 03523 9654 +120 +078 094106 112 083 024 00

133500 1851N 06319W 6426 03522 //// +112 //// 090083 101 093 025 25

133530 1849N 06319W 6435 03493 9589 +125 +121 089052 060 085 015 00

133600 1847N 06320W 6435 03492 9586 +127 +116 083043 044 047 005 03

133630 1844N 06320W 6440 03477 9574 +132 +097 085037 040 /// /// 03

133700 1842N 06320W 6438 03477 9576 +128 +103 095025 027 /// /// 03

133730 1840N 06320W 6440 03473 9577 +127 +091 089020 022 /// /// 03

133800 1838N 06320W 6442 03470 9570 +135 +079 068010 014 /// /// 03

133830 1836N 06320W 6438 03477 9571 +135 +077 051006 007 /// /// 03

133900 1833N 06320W 6434 03487 9572 +137 +084 328005 007 /// /// 03

[NL]

Latest satellite image showing Earl's eye becoming visible.

[Iceberg]

Latest satellite image showing Earl's eye becoming visible.

Yep good spot, on PR doppler the eye is definately closed and IR shows that it has massive wall of deep cold convective CDO.

[Iceberg]

Earl updated to 105kts so a solid CAT 3 now, NHC predict that Earl will be a CAT 4 in the next day or so, with gusts upto 150kts.

Full text, and NHC have confirmed that they have shifted it *further west*, with alot of well know names now in the firing line cone.

They have also confirmed that they expect Earl to be a CAT 3 when it passes Long island, rhode island etc, will it be any higher ?

THE EYE OF EARL HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE

IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND IS WELL-DEFINED IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM BOTH

SAN JUAN AND ST. MAARTEN. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT

MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 111 KT IN THE NORTHEAST

EYEWALL AROUND 1200 UTC. THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT SAMPLED THE

NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AGAIN...BUT FOUND 90 KT SFMR WINDS IN THE

NORTHWEST EYEWALL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 960 MB. THIS SUPPORTS

INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 105 KT...CATEGORY THREE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. THE LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER

ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF EARL APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL

STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING EARL

AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME...ALTHOUGH EYEWALL

CYCLES COULD INDUCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. LATE IN THE

FORECAST PERIOD INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE

WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/13. EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD

THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE

WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...EARL IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD...THEN

NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE

GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES IN 4-5 DAYS. THE

TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AGAIN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS

NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK

FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS

UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S.

EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 18.7N 63.6W 105 KT

12HR VT 31/0000Z 19.5N 65.1W 115 KT

24HR VT 31/1200Z 21.0N 67.0W 125 KT

36HR VT 01/0000Z 22.8N 68.7W 125 KT

48HR VT 01/1200Z 25.2N 70.6W 120 KT

72HR VT 02/1200Z 31.0N 73.5W 110 KT

96HR VT 03/1200Z 37.5N 71.5W 100 KT

120HR VT 04/1200Z 45.5N 63.0W 75 KT...INLAND

[Iceberg]

Just had a look at Earl on the Atlantic wide scale, it would fill up the GOM if you put in in there, it really is large, bigger than Katrina managed, to try and feed this huge convective field it's attempting to form a tri-point inflow system ( 3 inflow points), I have only ever seen a CAT 5 achieve this with Katrina and Rita being some of the few so far.