Major Hurricane Earl

[Iceberg]

I need to go to bed, but their are 2 test flights in Earl atm getting data, which keep dropping in and out. I have an unconfirmed report of 140kts which would make Earl already nearly 120kts surface.

[Cookie]

I need to go to bed, but their are 2 test flights in Earl atm getting data, which keep dropping in and out. I have an unconfirmed report of 140kts which would make Earl already nearly 120kts surface.

you're not alone far to much time spent staring at screen buts to interesting to stop

[Paranoid]

Wilma and Typhoon Forest are the fastest intensifying storms on record as far as i know. Wilma managed a 53mb drop in 6 hours, Earl would be do 84mb in 6 hours if we take the 14mb an hour as the rate of RI. I was going to compare them but such a massive pressure drop in that space of time made me a little skeptical.

[peterf]

aye bed for me chaps,i got nothing done today lol.

[Cookie]

Just want to say thanks for all the great updates,

plenty more to watch and keep up with in the coming days.

[Guest]

Just want to say thanks for all the great updates,

plenty more to watch and keep up with in the coming days.

Thanks indeed everyone I've read through 24 hours of thread in five minutes and it has been very dramatic. Quite amazing but also quite chilling...

[Evening thunder]

Certainly one big hurricane http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html really looks quite amazing.

I second comments above and would also like to also add my thanks for the informative updates on here.

[Paranoid]

Looks like the NHC have disregarded the reading of 934mb and have gone for 939mb. A much more plausible rate of intensification but at 4.5mb an hour it is very impressive nonetheless. Winds havent responded yet but we should see an increase in 2-4 hours in time for the next advisories.

000

WTNT32 KNHC 302253

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010

700 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.4N 65.1W

ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN

ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD

THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF

EARL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND PASS EAST

OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST

DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200

MILES...325 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER

OBSERVATIONS IS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE

BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS

ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONGER

WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN

PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO

SPREAD INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO

5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF

ONSHORE WIND OVER THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND 1 TO 3 FEET

ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY

LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS

OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN

ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF

12 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD

CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...900 PM AST.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

Edited August 30, 2010 by Paranoid

[Iceberg]

Their won't be many updates from me today as I am off to the beach,as per the last discussion the pressure has tended to level off a bit atm.

But recon at 5.30am UK time found pressure down to 929mb, below.

042800 1950N 06609W 6939 02606 9317 +179 +160 292025 031 043 005 03

042830 1951N 06609W 6893 02654 9290 +197 +162 324013 018 027 002 00

042900 1953N 06609W 6957 02569 9295 +190 +165 040008 010 025 004 03

042930 1955N 06609W 6976 02548 9301 +185 +167 079014 016 /// /// 03

043000 1956N 06608W 6959 02567 9284 +202 +169 088014 016 /// /// 03

043030 1955N 06606W 6966 02562 9290 +194 +172 101011 013 /// /// 03

043100 1953N 06606W 6972 02554 9292 +192 +174 120005 009 /// /// 03

043130 1952N 06607W 6957 02573 9301 +183 +175 263004 007 027 002 03

043200 1951N 06608W 6958 02579 9306 +185 +175 267017 022 032 003 00

043230 1950N 06609W 6969 02569 9316 +179 +175 279033 041 053 004 00

043300 1948N 06610W 6966 02588 9338 +147 //// 288064 074 080 008 01

043330 1947N 06611W 6966 02617 //// +122 //// 292085 089 087 011 01

Winds have not yet responded and the highest official winds found so far seem to be 124kts in the SE quad, I can't believe that stronger winds don't exist in the NE.

AS per NHC Earl is still being adjusted westwards.

"THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN RATHER CLOSE

AGREEMENT UP TO 72 HOURS...BUT BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT AFTER THAT

FORECAST TIME. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS...ONCE AGAIN...

SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE

TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR

THE PROGRESS OF EARL. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS

TO HOW CLOSE THE HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST."

Dvorak are steady at around T6.5 which normally means 125kts, so their is scope for NHC to up Earl even though higher winds have not yet been found.

[Cookie]

the seriousness of the situation is becoming clearer.

Virginia

From the Virginia Department of Emergency Management website:

"A small change in Earl's forecasted path could bring a major hurricane to Virginia," said Michael Cline, state coordinator for the Virginia Department of Emergency Management. "Virginia state agencies are getting ready for the storm, and so should residents."

The Commonwealth has activated the Virginia Evacuation Coordination Team for Operational Response to assess Earl’s potential impact and to take necessary actions. The Virginia Emergency Operations Center is now at Increased Readiness Condition.

Maryland

August 30, 2010 - 4:46pm

Related Stories

Va. officials want Earl on residents' radars

Police cruiser hits bicyclist in Ocean City

Ocean City launches hotel week

O'Malley says restoring road funds a top priority

New drawbridge to be built into Ocean City BALTIMORE (AP) - State emergency officials are warning that Hurricane Earl could bring rip tides stronger than those over the weekend that left one swimmer missing and hundreds in need of rescue.

The Maryland Emergency Management Agency held a conference call Monday morning with the National Weather Service, local emergency management offices, state agencies and utilities.

MEMA says current forecasts have Earl passing off Maryland's coast Thursday or Friday. If the storm follows that forecast, strong waves and rip tides will occur.

Hurricane Danielle brought rip tides over the weekend; 250 swimmers in Ocean City had to be rescued.

MEMA urges residents to make emergency preparations.

Online:

MEMA: http://www.mema.state.md.us

National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[AderynCoch]

The eye has shrunk considerably in the past few hours, which would favour (rapid?) intensification in the short term. However, the eyewall itself is probably becoming more unstable and so Earl may soon have to reorganise.

It will be interesting to see how close Earl gets to Cape Hatteras - if he stays to the east he will be less weak if making a landfall further north (which looks very likely at the moment).

[Paranoid]

NHC mentioned that Earl is starting to undergo an eyewall replacement, and any further intesnification depends on how quickly this happens.

[AderynCoch]

The eye is now barely visible even on infrared wavelengths, and a new (larger) eyewall should be about to form. Given the potential for further intensification and expansion of wind field, Earl could well be a repeat of Hurricane Floyd of 1999 only a bit further to the east.

[Polar Bear]

Hello All,

Just briefly read some of the posts...and scanned the Hurricane Centre site.. Now if this is a rather unintelligent query please forgive me, but Fiona seems fairly hot on the heals of Earl. so is there any impact/influence that each may have on each other, or one? timings dont seem too far out in terms of wind probabability....does that makes sense?

[summer blizzard]

Any further ajustment west and Earl will most likely hit North Carolina before a possible second landfall afterward, his movement is west-north west at the moment, to miss North Carolina he needs to head further north, very soon.

In regards to interaction with Fiona, she is catching him and expected to follow him into the weakness and turn north, should they interact too much, they will weaken each other rapidly.

[cowdog]

Given the strengthening is it now almost a certainty that Earl will be a Cat 5?

This really has the potential to be a history making Hurricane if it keeps on current track / moves even further west. It's been 100+ years since New York was hit by a Hurricane hasn't it? Really hope this swings away from the latest tracks as this is going to be nasty.

[summer blizzard]

Given the strengthening is it now almost a certainty that Earl will be a Cat 5?

This really has the potential to be a history making Hurricane if it keeps on current track / moves even further west. It's been 100+ years since New York was hit by a Hurricane hasn't it? Really hope this swings away from the latest tracks as this is going to be nasty.

It is possible, though with an eyewall replacement cycle underway it is now ulikely because shear is expected to increase along with slightly cooler waters ahead of it.

Edited August 31, 2010 by pottyprof
Drifting off topic

[Paranoid]

Earl's weakened slightly in the past few hours due to the eyewall replacement mentioned earlier. If the eye gets sorted out in the next few hours intensification should resume.

[Gray-Wolf]

Sadly a hit on NY would re-open the debate into AGW and hurricane strength which would also get nasty.

[Jason T]

Still not looking good though.

Hurricane Earl08.31.2010Forecast/Advisory #25

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 25

000WTNT42 KNHC 311457TCDAT2HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0720101100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010 THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND THIS IS REFLECTEDIN A DECREASE IN THE DVORAK NUMBERS AND IN AN INCREASE IN THEPRESSURE TO 939 MB. THIS APPARENT WEAKENING IS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO AN ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS INDICATED BY THE DOUBLE EYE STRUCTURE OBSERVED ON MICROWAVE DATA AT 1035 UTC. HOWEVER...AN AVERAGE OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE STILL SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115KNOTS. NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR EARL TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IF THE OUTER EYEWALL SHRINKS. DESPITE THE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...EARL MOST LIKELY WILL RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR THE NEXT 48HOURS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER AS THE SHEAR INCREASES.EARL HAS CONTINUED TO WOBBLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE AVERAGE MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12KNOTS. EARL HAS BEEN STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EASTWARD ACROSS THEATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP EARL ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THERE AFTER...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND EARL WILL LIKELY TURN NORTH AND NORTHEAST BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERNUNITED STATES. THIS IS THE SCENARIO PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THEWEST BEFORE 48 HOURS AND IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCEENVELOPE.GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AHURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THEMID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THE HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 31/1500Z 21.2N 67.9W 115 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 22.3N 69.7W 115 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 24.8N 71.7W 120 KT 36HR VT 02/0000Z 27.3N 73.5W 115 KT 48HR VT 02/1200Z 30.5N 75.0W 115 KT 72HR VT 03/1200Z 36.5N 73.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 04/1200Z 43.5N 66.0W 80 KT120HR VT 05/1200Z 52.5N 57.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Edited August 31, 2010 by silver line

[ZONE 51]

Some Amazing sat images here.

Wind Shear Atlantic

[Iceberg]

A very quick one from me between the beach and going out for dinner.

Earl is definately re-organising it's eye, however due to the very good banding pressure isn't rising much, it might sound good news for the east coast that Earl isn't in as good a state, however the flip side is that the eye going has caused winds to rapidly expand out from the centre. Below shows a large area of very strong flight winds out from the centre, IF earl can re-organise as well this is very much a worst case scenario.

Hurricane warning will be issued for NYC tonight........

153000 2128N 06735W 6965 02891 //// +081 //// 151125 127 073 039 01

153030 2130N 06734W 6954 02921 //// +081 //// 149124 125 080 033 01

153100 2131N 06733W 6973 02910 //// +080 //// 146127 129 081 035 01

153130 2132N 06731W 6971 02919 //// +076 //// 143122 124 081 032 01

153200 2133N 06730W 6957 02951 //// +074 //// 143122 124 083 031 01

153230 2134N 06729W 6970 02947 //// +074 //// 143124 127 079 030 01

153300 2135N 06728W 6961 02969 //// +075 //// 140116 120 076 034 01

153330 2137N 06726W 6973 02964 //// +069 //// 139117 119 077 022 01

153400 2138N 06725W 6965 02980 //// +067 //// 139117 119 078 018 01

153430 2139N 06724W 6966 02991 //// +071 //// 139115 117 078 008 01

153500 2140N 06723W 6970 02991 9884 +085 //// 136112 113 078 006 01

153530 2141N 06722W 6969 03002 9892 +084 //// 135107 108 079 003 01

153600 2142N 06720W 6958 03022 9913 +074 //// 134103 105 078 005 01

153630 2143N 06719W 6967 03016 9917 +075 //// 134099 100 074 005 01

153700 2144N 06718W 6962 03027 9919 +079 //// 133097 097 078 012 01

153730 2146N 06717W 6959 03033 9931 +070 //// 137098 101 076 023 01

153800 2147N 06716W 6980 03010 //// +063 //// 140106 107 071 028 01

153830 2148N 06714W 6973 03025 //// +064 //// 143106 107 071 025 01

153900 2149N 06713W 6967 03042 //// +062 //// 142113 116 071 022 01

153930 2150N 06712W 6969 03037 //// +064 //// 142115 117 069 018 01

[ZONE 51]

link

incredible close up here!

go to the link then just click on part of the image to zoom in like this image..

Edited August 31, 2010 by nimbilus

[AderynCoch]

Looks like the eye is starting to become visible again.

Navy/NRL has the central pressure back down to 935mb (from 939mb on the latest NHC advisory) and with maximum sustained winds held at 115kt.

[Paranoid]

Pressure is still slowly rising but as Aderyn said above, an eye is beginning to form again. There's a fair amount of dry air just to the west of Earl so if that gets into its circulation it could slow down any further strengthening.