Major Hurricane Earl

[AderynCoch]

Well expansion is typical of storms heading into the mid-latitudes, so I can only see Earl getting larger.

Even if he misses North Carolina, there's surely no way the Canadian Maritimes are going to avoid getting hit. If Earl clings to the coast, New York and Long Island are in for a potent storm surge of their own.

Edited September 1, 2010 by AderynCoch

[Iceberg]

Yep, NHC are temporarily bringing back their storm surge monitoring for EARL. currently warning of a risk of 6ft but I think this might go up....

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Two pics from the GFS model, blown up and the latest from the NHC with the hurricane warnings from Jackonsville to Vaginia Beach. A hurricane watch is also for the Delaware coast (This is only because of the length of time).

Only one letter away from an embarressing Freudian Slip there, just the sort of thing I would do

Looks a cracker of a storm, glad I'm on this side of the atlntic

[Mondy]

Soon to be a fish-spinner :-P

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT1/anim8vis.html

(well, not yet!)

[Paranoid]

Back up to Cat 4 but no change in pressure thus far.

000

WTNT32 KNHC 012051

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 30

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010

500 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

...DANGEROUS AND LARGE HURRICANE EARL POSES A THREAT TO THE

MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD

THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...26.3N 73.3W

ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND

ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH

CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING

DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH

OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH

MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO

WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND

SOUND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH

TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH

CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE

SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN

DELAWARE.

* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS

VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.

* FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW

JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE

CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING

BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.

* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER

MASSACHUSETTS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED

36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE

PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE

AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS

BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE

WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR

DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY

YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. EARL IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON

THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL

APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS AGAIN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE

ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN

INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING

TREND IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

EARL IS STILL A LARGE HURRICANE AND GROWING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS

EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE

RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO WAS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH

CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM

FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO

NEW JERSEY BY EARLY FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS

MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING

AREA. ELSEWHERE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS

1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING

AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND

DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED

MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN

NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS

AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE

SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP

CURRENTS.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Iceberg]

Yep back to CAT 4, also a slight movememt westwards and hurricane watches as far north as Rhode Island.

[AderynCoch]

Yep back to CAT 4, also a slight movememt westwards and hurricane watches as far north as Rhode Island.

Worst possible update for those in Earl's path. I think the hurricane warnings should be extended further south.

[Cookie]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-11154296

Evacuations have begun in areas of the US East Coast likely to be hit by Hurricane Earl.

The hurricane strengthened to a category four storm again, generating sustained winds of 215km/h (135mph).

President Barack Obama said officials needed to be ready for a "worst case" scenario in a call to the US Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema).

One island in North Carolina's Outer Banks is being evacuated and visitors are being asked to leave another.

[Cookie]

one near by buoy

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 1 Sep, 2010 21:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane EARL (AL07) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours

Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 33 hours

Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours

Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Canada

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Capeville (37.2 N, 75.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours

Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours

Montauk (41.0 N, 72.2 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours

Atlantic City (39.0 N, 74.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours

Boston (42.3 N, 71.0 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours

Providence (41.8 N, 71.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours

Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours

Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours

Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours

Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Belmar (40.1 N, 74.1 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Salisbury (38.3 N, 75.6 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Bangor (44.5 N, 68.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Portland (43.5 N, 70.4 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Hartford (41.5 N, 72.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Bahamas

probability for TS is 40% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Augusta (44.3 N, 69.8 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

New York (40.7 N, 73.9 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

Concord (43.2 N, 71.5 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

San Salvador (24.0 N, 74.5 W)

probability for TS is 35% currently

Philadelphia (39.9 N, 75.2 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Goose Bay (53.3 N, 60.3 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

Edited September 1, 2010 by cookie

[Iceberg]

Just a very quick update for now recon are finding that Earl has been undergoing some Rapid intensification again. Pressure has dropped from 941 to now 926 in 12 hrs. The pressure is now back into CAT 5 territory and winds might well readily respond. !!!

[Iceberg]

Wind continue to respond. with 2 140kt flight readings. This might be enough to justify an upgrade to 125kts.

071030 2858N 07416W 6962 02645 //// +108 //// 143132 140 111 016 01

071100 2859N 07415W 6958 02684 //// +097 //// 139138 140 095 036 01

071130 2900N 07414W 6999 02660 //// +089 //// 139136 140 099 027 01

071200 2901N 07413W 6967 02735 //// +082 //// 139129 132 095 029 01

071230 2902N 07412W 6964 02769 //// +088 //// 140125 126 092 020 01

An interesting snipet from the previous vortex, I believe the plane had to suspend sending information back.

FREQUENT SVR TURBC NW EYEWALL TO 10 NM FURTHER OUT.

Forgot to add flight winds of around 155-160kts are needed for a CAT 5.

[Gray-Wolf]

Let's hope it's steering currents are as forecast, pretty big windfield to have it come ashore north of N.C.?

[AderynCoch]

Given the size of the storm, I'd say Earl would need to be at least 920mb to reach Category 5. There's every likelihood however that his current storm surge is already equivalent to an average Category 5 hurricane, and only a slight westward deviation from the forecast track will bring the most dangerous northeast quadrant of the storm over Cape Hatteras. Things are really on a precipice right now.

[londonsnow]

it looks like earl is reaching its peak with 145 mph sustained winds on the latest update. a very dangerous hurricane. the conveyorbelt of cyclones continues in the atlantic with a possible hermine lining up behind gaston

[Cookie]

from early this morning

latest

[Crimson_Sprite]

Back up to Cat 4 but no change in pressure thus far.

000

WTNT32 KNHC 012051

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 30

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010

500 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

...DANGEROUS AND LARGE HURRICANE EARL POSES A THREAT TO THE

MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD

THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...26.3N 73.3W

ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND

ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH

CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING

DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH

OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH

MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO

WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND

SOUND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH

TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH

CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE

SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN

DELAWARE.

* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS

VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.

* FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW

JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE

CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING

BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.

* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER

MASSACHUSETTS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED

36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE

PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE

AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS

BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE

WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR

DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY

YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. EARL IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON

THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL

APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS AGAIN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE

ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN

INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING

TREND IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

EARL IS STILL A LARGE HURRICANE AND GROWING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS

EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE

RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO WAS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH

CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM

FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO

NEW JERSEY BY EARLY FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS

MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING

AREA. ELSEWHERE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS

1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING

AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND

DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED

MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN

NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS

AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE

SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP

CURRENTS.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

Im from new jersey and now live in Nottingham- truly the land of no weather- I know I shouldnt, but I feel so jeolous of my fellow NJ-ians right now. i used to get soooooooo excited when we were under hurricane watches!!!! I loved every hurricane Ive been through, now I just get occasional drizzle, and mediocre warmth in the summer. Severe weather (storms, heat, snow and wind) are the only thing I miss from home

[cowdog]

it looks like earl is reaching its peak with 145 mph sustained winds on the latest update. a very dangerous hurricane. the conveyorbelt of cyclones continues in the atlantic with a possible hermine lining up behind gaston

Note that New York is now on Tropical Storm watch with the latest advisory -

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/020855.shtml

Unless this starts to turn away this has potential to be a nightmare in the level of damage.

[Mondy]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

[Iceberg]

Latest NHC path , takes Earl, approx 10-15 miles off the coast of Rhode island, given that the eye is 30nm across, this would be a direct eye wall pass for Rhode Island and possible devestation for the homes there.

Recon found pressure down to 924mb and I noticed NHC upped to 125kts pretty much as expected, so going off all this, we can say that EARL is approaching the East coast as strong as it ever has been......

[Mondy]

Edited September 2, 2010 by Mondy

[AderynCoch]

Latest NHC path , takes Earl, approx 10-15 miles off the coast of Rhode island, given that the eye is 30nm across, this would be a direct eye wall pass for Rhode Island and possible devestation for the homes there.

Worse still would be if Earl's eye passed just west of Rhode Island, sending the highest storm surge up Narragansett Bay. This is an outside possibility at the moment, but a possibility nevertheless. Cape Cod is very close to firing line as things stand.

In the short term there's been increased consensus that the eye will pass just east of Cape Hatteras, bringing the weaker but still powerful left side of the storm ashore here - Earl will have to start moving due north very quickly though. Further north recurvature has been increasingly delayed, with the forecast cone now bringing the eye towards the Maine/New Brunswick border and the stronger right side of Earl right up the Bay of Fundy.

[Somerset Squall]

Looks very impressive on satellite imagery- I certainly wouldn't want to be in the path of this monster. Good luck to all in it's path. And it looks as if Earl could even become a touch stronger yet.

[Paranoid]

Looks like Earl has weakened slightly to 145mph and 932mb (although that's still stronger than before the eyewall replacement happened. Probably good news for those on the east coast but it will take a fair amount of weakening before they're at ease i imagine.

[MAF]

latest update from NHC

...INTENSE HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD

TRACK...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...30.1N 74.8W

ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA

ABOUT 820 MI...1315 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES

[AderynCoch]

Even with slight decreases in intensity, Earl is going to be large and powerful for a good distance yet. It's all down to the track forecast now.

Motion still towards NNW at 330 degrees.