Meto Uk Further Outlook

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Neiller22 said:

 They change with the wind. 

That statement is both metaphorically and literally true!

[Neiller22]

2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

That statement is both metaphorically and literally true!

?? very. 

[damianslaw]

Ooh some snow possible in the north at times, suggests they see the jet taking a more southerly path and polar air getting in on the act, that's how I see things. Good for the ski seasons and places with a bit of height - if you want to see some snow, and hopefully some bright sunny weather at times as well  and none of this weeks grey murk.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 25 Dec 2017 to Wednesday 3 Jan 2018:

The Christmas period sees a gradual transition from the settled conditions of previous days, to more changeable weather. Initially mild and breezy conditions are expected to dominate before a band of rain moves erratically southeastwards during Sunday. As the rain clears away brighter and colder conditions follow across the north with some showers, these heaviest in the northwest with some local hill snow possible. More persistent rain could occur further south on Monday. Very unsettled and windy conditions are likely for the period into the New Year, with most places seeing spells of heavy rain and showers, and with some snow possible at times in the north. It will be windy, with a risk of severe gales at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 4 Jan 2018 to Thursday 18 Jan 2018:

As we move into early January, unsettled and often windy weather is likely to dominate the UK, with periods of rain interspersed by brighter, showery conditions. The best chance of drier and brighter interludes will be across southern and eastern parts. Through the first half of January confidence in the forecast remains low, but the trend points towards some longer periods of more settled weather developing, especially in the south. This would lead to longer spells of drier and colder conditions, as well as an increased likelihood of overnight frost and fog.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[northwestsnow]

Pretty much the same as yesterday..will need upgrades to inc more people.

Local hills could mean anything..100/200/300m...guess its a wait and see for now.

[joggs]

These do change nearly as often as the output we view. It wasn't that long ago when there was a "snow in northern and central areas.

Simply put,imo this winter is throwing at of models,professionals off.

[cheshire snow]

Thomas (cannot pronounc his second name) on the latest forecast

In his own words apart from a cold blip after Christmas day it is looking

Mild,mild, mild.

C.S

[doctor32]

30 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Thomas (cannot pronounc his second name) on the latest forecast

In his own words apart from a cold blip after Christmas day it is looking

Mild,mild, mild.

C.S

Stiffnackers??? 

Edited December 20, 2017 by doctor32

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 26 Dec 2017 to Thursday 4 Jan 2018:

Boxing Day is likely to see rain spreading to most parts, this may turn to snow in the north. Strong winds in places, with a risk of gales. Perhaps still mild in the south before turning colder. This heralds the start of a period of generally unsettled weather that should see us into early January, although confidence is low from New Years Eve onwards. The unsettled spell will see rain or showers, heavy at times, affecting most parts of the UK and give some snow in the north, especially over hills and mountains. The winds will also be strong with gales or severe gales likely at times. The quieter interludes will be defined by drier, brighter weather, some overnight frosts, and lighter winds. Temperatures fluctuating around average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 26 Dec 2017 to Thursday 4 Jan 2018:

Boxing Day is likely to see rain spreading to most parts, this may turn to snow in the north. Strong winds in places, with a risk of gales. Perhaps still mild in the south before turning colder. This heralds the start of a period of generally unsettled weather that should see us into early January, although confidence is low from New Years Eve onwards. The unsettled spell will see rain or showers, heavy at times, affecting most parts of the UK and give some snow in the north, especially over hills and mountains. The winds will also be strong with gales or severe gales likely at times. The quieter interludes will be defined by drier, brighter weather, some overnight frosts, and lighter winds. Temperatures fluctuating around average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

as has been suggested, if yoy live in the north and have altitude you could well get wintry suprises !!

Obviously not  great setup south of the midlands but i stronlgy feel the peak district/pennines could get some wintry suprises (and hills of scotland/wales/NI).

[karyo]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

as has been suggested, if yoy live in the north and have altitude you could well get wintry suprises !!

Obviously not  great setup south of the midlands but i stronlgy feel the peak district/pennines could get some wintry suprises (and hills of scotland/wales/NI).

At least it doesn't look terribly mild at this stage and if I can't have snow I will be fine with some rigorous depressions to keep some interest in the weather going.

Nothing worse than mild and dry.

[Don]

31 minutes ago, karyo said:

At least it doesn't look terribly mild at this stage and if I can't have snow I will be fine with some rigorous depressions to keep some interest in the weather going.

Nothing worse than mild and dry.

Ian Pennells winter forecast seems to be going quite well at this stage.  He forecast a generally unsettled but not necessarily particularly mild first half of January and this is currently in line with the Metoffice further outlook.  However, his forecast also points towards a cold spell developing during the second half of the month, so if the first half comes off as forecast, lets hope the second half follows suit!  

Edited December 21, 2017 by Don

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Ian Pennells winter forecast seems to be going quite well at this stage.  He forecast a generally unsettled but not necessarily particularly mild first half of January and this is currently in line with the Metoffice further outlook.  However, his forecast also points towards a cold spell developing during the second half of the month, so if the first half comes off as forecast, lets hope the second half follows suit!  

Indeed Don, I always pay attention to his winter forecasts and this year is the first that he mentions some notable cold spells so I hope he is right again. I will be out of the country in late January so even more chance for the cold spell prediction to come off. haha

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 27 Dec 2017 to Friday 5 Jan 2018:

Wednesday is likely to be breezy with outbreaks of rain or showers and a moderate chance for snow, at times, across the northern half of the country; mainly over high ground. The final few days of December and early January should see a period of generally unsettled weather with low pressure systems moving across the UK from the Atlantic, although confidence is low. The unsettled spells will give rain or showers, heavy at times, to most parts of the UK with some snow in the north, especially over hills and mountains. Winds will also be strong with gales or severe gales likely at times. The quieter interludes will be defined by drier, brighter weather, some overnight frosts, and lighter winds. Temperatures are expected to fluctuate around average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 6 Jan 2018 to Saturday 20 Jan 2018:

The general trend for early to late January is one an increase in settled weather, especially across the south of the UK. This trend is likely to become established by around the middle of the month and would see a concomitant increase in the chance for overnight frost and fog. It is possible that towards late January the UK cloud see more unsettled weather once again; with showers, or longer spells of rain, and stronger winds. However, confidence is very low at this stage. Temperatures are likely to be mostly milder than average through much of January. However, there may well be cooler episodes with snow possible, especially towards the middle of the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[karyo]

I guess the Met Office is not a fan of the Plain English campaign - concomitant?

Anyway, this update is even worse than yesterday's with generally above average temperatures for January. The only chink of hope is the cooler episode with snow possible in the middle of the month. Hard to see how this will come by though with the high pressure generally situated in the south. Maybe a brief northwesterly I guess.

[Don]

46 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Saturday 6 Jan 2018 to Saturday 20 Jan 2018:

The general trend for early to late January is one an increase in settled weather, especially across the south of the UK. This trend is likely to become established by around the middle of the month and would see a concomitant increase in the chance for overnight frost and fog. It is possible that towards late January the UK cloud see more unsettled weather once again; with showers, or longer spells of rain, and stronger winds. However, confidence is very low at this stage. Temperatures are likely to be mostly milder than average through much of January. However, there may well be cooler episodes with snow possible, especially towards the middle of the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Not a particularly inspiring update for coldies!  Lets hope the outlook changes, otherwise we could be looking at another lacklustre winter.

[mountain shadow]

9 minutes ago, karyo said:

Hard to see how this will come by though with the high pressure generally situated in the south. Maybe a brief northwesterly I guess.

Yes, this was my thoughts.

Generally, mild and wet to begin the month with maybe the odd transient snow on the back edge of systems for the North and West, followed by a short lived mid latitude block and then a return to mile and wet with the chance of transient snow events.

[northwestsnow]

That update screams +NAO /Euro trash high!!

cooler slot mid month ?

Woopy doo.

Another pathetic attempt for a winter in fill effect.

[karyo]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

Not a particularly inspiring update for coldies!  Lets hope the outlook changes, otherwise we could be looking at another lacklustre winter.

It speaks volumes if the best thing about January turns out to be a cooler spell for a time. 

Hopefully, it will become more promising soon.

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Yes, this was my thoughts.

Generally, mild and wet to begin the month with maybe the odd transient snow on the back edge of systems for the North and West, followed by a short lived mid latitude block and then a return to mile and wet with the chance of transient snow events.

What you say makes sense and it is a familiar story of recent Januaries 

[D.B.]

Met Office's forecasts are to cringy to read.

No, wait, what I actually mean is..... 

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 28 Dec 2017 to Saturday 6 Jan 2018:

Thursday and Friday will be unsettled, with outbreaks of rain or showers. There is the chance of snow across northern and central parts of the UK on Thursday, mainly over higher ground, but not exclusively. Windy for most, with the risk of coastal gales. The unsettled conditions continuing for the final days of December and into early January, with low pressure systems expected to bring showers or longer spells of rain, with only short drier interludes. There is the chance of some snow, mainly in the north, especially over higher ground. The best of any drier and brighter weather is likely to be in the east and southeast. Often rather cold in the north, with overnight frosts, elsewhere temperatures near normal, possibly mild in the south at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 7 Jan 2018 to Sunday 21 Jan 2018:

As we move through January there is an increased likelihood of settled weather, especially across the south of the UK. This trend is likely to become established by around the middle of the month and would see a corresponding increase in the chance for overnight frost and fog. It is possible that towards late January the UK could see more unsettled weather once again; with showers, or longer spells of rain, and stronger winds. However, confidence is very low at this stage. Temperatures are likely to be mostly milder than average through much of January. However, there may well be colder episodes with snow possible, especially towards the middle of the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast