Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 6 Dec 2017 to Friday 15 Dec 2017:

On Wednesday and Thursday an unsettled spell of weather is likely for many areas, with strong winds and rain moving eastwards. However, it may remain largely dry in the far southeast. Towards the end of the week the rain is expected to clear away with brighter, colder conditions then following into the north with wintry showers. However, further unsettled weather is probable over the weekend and into next week with rain and strong winds arriving in the northwest and moving across many areas. Towards the end of this period weather patterns are expected to become slow moving bringing a mixture of colder drier periods and short lived milder, wetter, windier interludes. Snow is possible at times, especially across high ground in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-12-01

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 16 Dec 2017 to Saturday 30 Dec 2017:

There is low confidence regarding which weather pattern is likely to prevail as we look ahead towards the end of December. The UK could remain in a battle ground between wetter and milder conditions pushing in from the south and west and colder, drier conditions which will be to the north and east of the British Isles. Slow moving weather systems are the most likely scenario, which will deliver a mixture of colder, drier periods with some short lived milder, wetter and windier interludes, especially across western parts. Snow is likely at times, especially across the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Bristawl Si]

Shannon's in town for her pre-Xmas and Xmas/New Year celebrations reading that outlook

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 7 Dec 2017 to Saturday 16 Dec 2017:

A period of wet and windy weather will be in place across the UK by Thursday bringing some heavy rain and gales in more exposed places. As the rain clears to the southeast it will be replaced with some cold arctic air, bringing sunny spells and an increased chance of wintry showers over northern hills at first; then to lower levels across Scotland. It will remain rather windy across all parts, feeling cold by day with overnight frosts. The weekend looks set to bring more unsettled wet and windy conditions with an ongoing chance of snow over northern hills. Any milder interludes are more likely to be confined to the south. The unsettled, often windy weather will probably continue into next week before settling down to something more slow moving.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-12-01

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Dec 2017 to Sunday 31 Dec 2017:

There is low confidence as to which weather pattern will dominate in the second half of December, however a theme of more slowly evolving weather looks the most likely. This could bring predominantly colder, drier periods with some snow over northern and central areas, and temperatures below average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[LRD]

43 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Dec 2017 to Sunday 31 Dec 2017:

There is low confidence as to which weather pattern will dominate in the second half of December, however a theme of more slowly evolving weather looks the most likely. This could bring predominantly colder, drier periods with some snow over northern and central areas, and temperatures below average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

I commented the other day that I thought the introduction of milder weather was being put back to later and later in December by these Met Office updates and this one doesn't even mention mild now. Hopefully these will continue to upgrade the cold even further

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 8 Dec 2017 to Sunday 17 Dec 2017:

The UK will be subject to a cold arctic airflow by Friday, bringing plenty of sunny spells but also some hail and snow showers. Any wintry showers will be most likely over northern facing hills in Scotland, Wales and the southwest, but at times becoming widespread. Strong winds will affect all regions, with gales in exposed coasts in the north; feeling very cold in the wind. We will also see a widespread increase in overnight frost and ice. This cold and windy weather is likely to stay in place for a time, perhaps with some brief milder interludes in the south, with frontal systems bringing a mix of rain sleet and snow. There are signs that slower-moving, blocked weather patterns will return with more settled but still cold weather dominating.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-12-01

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Dec 2017 to Sunday 31 Dec 2017:

There is low confidence as to which weather pattern will dominate in the second half of December, however a theme of more slowly evolving weather looks the most likely. This is likely to bring a mixture of colder, drier periods and shorter lived milder, wetter, windier interludes. Snow is likely at times especially in more northern and central areas.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[cyclonic happiness]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Dec 2017 to Sunday 31 Dec 2017:

There is low confidence as to which weather pattern will dominate in the second half of December, however a theme of more slowly evolving weather looks the most likely. This is likely to bring a mixture of colder, drier periods and shorter lived milder, wetter, windier interludes. Snow is likely at times especially in more northern and central areas.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

This is a pretty big deal. It's like the updates before the 2010 severe wintery spell.  I'm actually brimming with glee now :-D

[damianslaw]

The above certainly suggests heights to the NE will become a more influential player as we enter the middle of the month, and any atlantic attacks will come unstuck, slider low territory snow on north and east edge.

[damianslaw]

Shouldn't say it but chances of a white Christmas could be quite high this year..

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Dec 2017 to Monday 18 Dec 2017:

The UK will be subject to a cold arctic airflow this weekend, bringing plenty of sunny spells but also some snow showers. Any snow showers will be most frequent over northern and western parts, and perhaps the east coast, but at times may become more widespread. Strong winds will affect all regions, with gales in exposed coasts in the north and east; feeling very cold in the wind. We will also see a widespread increase in overnight frost and ice. This cold and windy weather is likely to stay in place for a time, perhaps with some brief milder interludes in the south, with frontal systems bringing a mix of rain, sleet and snow. There are signs that the slow-moving and blocked weather pattern is likely to remain in place.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-12-01

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 19 Dec 2017 to Tuesday 2 Jan 2018:

There is low confidence as to which weather pattern will dominate into the second half of December. However, a theme of more slowly evolving and a blocked weather pattern looks the most likely scenario. This is likely to bring a mixture of colder, drier periods and shorter lived milder, wetter, windier interludes. Snow is likely at times especially in more northern and central areas. Overall, temperatures will probably be below the average, but with some brief milder interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Summer Sun]

wrong update please delete

Edited December 4, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 10 Dec 2017 to Tuesday 19 Dec 2017:

A frontal band is likely to move east across the UK on Sunday, which will bring a mixture of rain, sleet and snow in places, with central and northern areas most at risk. Staying unsettled through next week, with further wintry showers, or occasionally longer spells of rain, sleet and snow, especially across northern and western parts of the UK, with drier and brighter weather likely in the southeast. However, frontal systems moving in off the Atlantic are more likely to bring rain in the south, with the greatest risk of snow across northern parts. Generally cold, with overnight frost, perhaps severe in the north, and perhaps some brief milder interludes, mainly in the south. The cold weather may well affect most places through mid-December.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-12-01

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 20 Dec 2017 to Wednesday 3 Jan 2018:

A slow-moving and blocked weather pattern is likely to dominate for the rest of December and into the early part of January. This is likely to bring a mixture of colder, drier periods and shorter lived milder, wetter and windier interludes. Snow is likely at times, especially in more northern and central parts of the UK. There remains some uncertainty in regards to which pattern will be most dominant during this period. Overall temperatures will probably be below average, but with some milder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Dec 2017 to Wednesday 20 Dec 2017:

Monday will see outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow, most likely across central and southern parts at first, clearing to brighter skies and wintry showers. Further accumulations of snow are most likely in central and northern areas. By midweek, we may see another spell of rain, sleet and snow moving east across many parts for a time. Otherwise, a changeable period with bright spells and wintry showers, these most frequent in the north and west. There is a continued risk of snow accumulations for all areas, either from showers or more organised frontal bands moving in from off the Atlantic. Some strong winds at times, especially in the west and northwest. Probably staying cold, with overnight frost and ice, with perhaps less cold interludes possible, especially in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-12-01

[karyo]

Nice looking update!

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 21 Dec 2017 to Thursday 4 Jan 2018:

Slow-moving or blocked weather patterns are likely to dominate for the rest of December and into the early part of January. This is likely to bring a mixture of colder, drier periods and shorter lived milder, wetter and windier interludes. Snow is likely at times, especially in more northern and central parts of the UK. There remains some uncertainty in regards to which pattern will be most dominant during this period. Overall temperatures will probably be below average, but with some milder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 12 Dec 2017 to Thursday 21 Dec 2017:

Tuesday will be cold with bright skies and wintry showers. Further accumulations of snow are most likely in northern areas, and on hills elsewhere. By midweek, we may see another spell of rain, sleet and snow moving east across many parts for a time. The rest of the outlook will probably stay cold with overnight frost and ice, although the south may see a few interludes of less cold conditions. There will be bright spells and wintry showers, these most frequent in the north and west. There is a continued risk of snow accumulations for all areas, either from showers or more organised frontal bands moving in from the Atlantic. Strong winds are likely at times, especially in the west and northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-12-01

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 22 Dec 2017 to Friday 5 Jan 2018:

High pressure is more likely to dominate for the rest of December and into the early part of January. This is likely to bring a mixture of colder, drier conditions and shorter lived milder, wetter and windier interludes. Snow is likely at times, especially in more northern and central parts of the UK. Temperatures will probably be below average overall, but with some milder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Dec 2017 to Friday 22 Dec 2017:

Mild conditions and some wet weather will clear away at the start of this period, with brighter but showery conditions following on behind. A mixture of sunshine and showers is then likely for the rest of the week. The most frequent showers are expected across the north and west where they will occasionally be rather heavy. Showers are likely to turn wintry over high ground in the north. Often it will be windy with gales possible in exposed parts of the north. Generally it will feel cold, with widespread overnight frosts and some icy patches. Milder conditions are then likely to return as we move into the rest of the month with wet and windy weather at times, especially in the north and west.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-12-01

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 23 Dec 2017 to Saturday 6 Jan 2018:

During the early part of this period we are likely to see a transition from spells of wet and windy weather moving across the UK towards more benign weather becoming established. This is likely to bring a mixture of colder, drier conditions and shorter lived milder, wetter and windier interludes. Snow is likely at times, especially in more northern and central parts of the UK. Temperatures will probably be below average overall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[karyo]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Dec 2017 to Friday 22 Dec 2017:

Mild conditions and some wet weather will clear away at the start of this period, with brighter but showery conditions following on behind. A mixture of sunshine and showers is then likely for the rest of the week. The most frequent showers are expected across the north and west where they will occasionally be rather heavy. Showers are likely to turn wintry over high ground in the north. Often it will be windy with gales possible in exposed parts of the north. Generally it will feel cold, with widespread overnight frosts and some icy patches. Milder conditions are then likely to return as we move into the rest of the month with wet and windy weather at times, especially in the north and west.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-12-01

Wow! That's quite a turnaround from yesterday's update.

[johnholmes]

Yes it certainly is.

Not sure just why they appear to have 'jumped' from one scenario to almost the opposite one in 24 hours.

The upper air pattern showing on the various anomaly charts generally have pointed to a less meridional flow for a day or two. However, the source of the air, at 500 mb, is from a fairly high level, Alaska and over the Gt Lakes and on in to the UK which, on average, is not a mild airflow. From their 70:30 cold and mild for the south which seemed, to me, about right, I would say more like a 50:50 for the south and maybe 60:40 for more cold than mild the further north one lives. That in the 6-10 day outlook and possibly out to 2 weeks. Beyond that then best ask Mystic Meg!