New Iceage? Much Evidence? - Global Cooling

[knocker]

The La Nina does have a role in this winters weather, and the winer 5 months ago in the southern hemisphere. But cooling via natural cycles is a very big role player here.

And the natural cycles are?

[Cycles]

And the natural cycles are?

Natural cycles of the earth,moon and sun. Earth is very much like a living organism, it needs sleep or rest periods which lowers it temperature, and warm robust periods which raises its temperature. These cycles come approximately every 72 years, 200 years, 1500 years, 110k years and 450k years. The earth's temperature and carbon dioxide varies during these cycles, it always has and always will.

And earth needs carbon dioxide to thrive, higher levels translates to robust plant life and more oxygen. Lower levels during ice ages translates to less carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and less plant life, and a lowering of oxygen.

The earth moon and sun has hundreds of cycles which produce more radiance, more gravitation, all of which cause cycles.

[jethro]

Not disputing natural cycles but the Earth isn't a sentient being.

[Gowon]

I'm not qualified to disagree with Liz Bentley but I don't think your point is logical.

Sometimes you have to use a bit of "logic" and think outside the box. Go and read up about past climates, solar cycles, try and do your own little research instead of taking everything as gospel.

Didn't know much about Dr Liz Bentley until I googled her.... I see, she used to work at the Met office...say no more

[jethro]

She's more qualified than any of us on here - it is possible to disagree with someone's views/conclusions without making disparaging comments about them or their place of work.

[Gowon]

The La Nina does have a role in this winters weather, and the winer 5 months ago in the southern hemisphere. But cooling via natural cycles is a very big role player here.

A lot of things could be playing a part, but I think the predominant factor has got to be solar influence.

My main point was that, if we managed to have a cold winter previous to this one with an El Nino than La Nina can't be the cause of this one.

[Gowon]

She's more qualified than any of us on here - it is possible to disagree with someone's views/conclusions without making disparaging comments about them or their place of work.

Says who?

Just because they have papers to say they're qualified, doesn't mean I have to be careful what I say, or can't think for myself.

Regarding the Met office comment, everybody knows how reliable they are..

[Cheshire Freeze]

A lot of things could be playing a part, but I think the predominant factor has got to be solar influence.

My main point was that, if we managed to have a cold winter previous to this one with an El Nino than La Nina can't be the cause of this one.

Oh yes, I have to agree with your thoughts on the sun. Let's look at this logically-over 99% of our heat energy is directly attributed to the sun(I think) ; put it this way, regardless of how much man made carbon dioxide was in the atmosphere, if the sun was to disappear we wouldn't last very long. That is why I think changes in solar output, no matter how insignificant it may seem, can have major rammifications on the climate of our planet, more than any amount of fossil fuels that are burnt.

[Alan Robinson]

Not disputing natural cycles but the Earth isn't a sentient being.

There are those who would disagree with you Jethro, though not I. Rudolph Steiner's influence remains considerable, for example in biodynamic agriculture. They believe not only are farms organisms, but there are field spirits and gnomes. They indulge in occult practices thinking it leads to better crops. Biodynamics seems to me increasing in popularity, particularly in the USA and Australia, perhaps in connection with increasing awareness of peak oil. If you want to see Steiner's thoughts about the weather, here is a link

http://wn.rsarchive....9240913p01.html

Be patient if you read it, you'll find other interesting ideas. For example, according to Steiner, the invention of spectacles happened only recently because our ancestors had far better eyesight than we have, and therefore didn't need them. If in the distant past people had poor eyesight , glasses would have been invented far earlier than they in fact were, and I suppose mentioned in the Doomsday Book.

Edited January 5, 2011 by Alan Robinson

[jethro]

Says who?

Just because they have papers to say they're qualified, doesn't mean I have to be careful what I say, or can't think for myself.

Regarding the Met office comment, everybody knows how reliable they are..

No one is suggesting you cannot think for yourself.

Those paper qualifications don't come out of Christmas Crackers, they take time and considerable effort to acquire.

Politeness demands that we all watch what we say, no derogatory comments regarding a person's qualifications and/or employer are necessary in order to show that we disagree with someone's thoughts/conclusions/work. Criticise the work (preferably with supporting scientific evidence), otherwise what you offer is nothing more than an opinion of "it's rubbish, because I say it is" - we're all entitled to opinions but they're not all equally valid or informed.

[jethro]

There are those who would disagree with you Jethro, though not I. Rudolph Steiner's influence remains considerable, for example in biodynamic agriculture. They believe not only are farms organisms, but there are field spirits and gnomes. They indulge in occult practices thinking it leads to better crops. Biodynamics seems to me increasing in popularity, particularly in the USA and Australia, perhaps in connection with increasing awareness of peak oil. If you want to see Steiner's thoughts about the weather, here is a link

http://wn.rsarchive....9240913p01.html

Be patient if you read it, you'll find other interesting ideas. For example, according to Steiner, the invention of spectacles happened only recently because our ancestors had far better eyesight than we have, and therefore didn't need them. If in the distant past people had poor eyesight , glasses would have been invented far earlier than they in fact were, and I suppose mentioned in the Doomsday Book.

Hmmm......

Having been a professional gardener for years, I have to say I'm not convinced by Steiner or biodynamics. The basic essence of of looking after the soil so that natural organisms thrive isn't anything new, that's simply good practise and what horticulturists have done and taught for generations. Although I must admit, there have been times over the years when despite all my best efforts, some things have failed to thrive to the extent that if I could have invoked a Fairy Goblin, by whatever means, up to and including dancing in the Moonlight, I'd gladly have done so.

What does Steiner have to say about slugs?

[Iceberg]

Their still seems to be a incorrect assumption that solar has impacted global temperatures.

So far it has not...(at least according to anything I have seen).

BTW I am not doubting that low solar with a host of other things can effect temperatures as I am sure it did during the LIA along with other things. However firstly sunspot activity does not equate directly to less energy from the sun.

Secondly although we have experienced some colder weather(even record breakingly cold last month), this is not due to a cooling world.

I have yet to see a prediction of a cooling world come off yet in my 20 years of interest in climate change and AGW.

This current La Nina phase is running out of steam and their are signs of another possible El Nino by the end of this year, probably another west based one. Both myself and Android showed research and graphs that clearly demonstrated the 2 or 3 month lag of global temps to ENSO considering that we have had 6 negative months of ENSO now cooling should be very mush underway, but it still aludes us.

Re the cold in this country there are a few papers talking about the link between ice loss and Jet amplification, i.e the lack of ice allows more WAA, more ridging more amplicafication, If this happens then we can hope that the new set up of n.Hemisphere winters might be 2009-11 however with the winter ice getting weaker and weaker due to more WAA maybe it's a setup that we can enjoy but not those a generation or 2 down the line.

[Gray-Wolf]

You never know Ice, this could be a start of a 'step change' in climate and we could get back to our 'normal' wet ,warm ,grey winters a lot sooner than 50yrs hence!!!!

[Alan Robinson]

Hmmm......

Having been a professional gardener for years, I have to say I'm not convinced by Steiner or biodynamics. The basic essence of of looking after the soil so that natural organisms thrive isn't anything new, that's simply good practise and what horticulturists have done and taught for generations. Although I must admit, there have been times over the years when despite all my best efforts, some things have failed to thrive to the extent that if I could have invoked a Fairy Goblin, by whatever means, up to and including dancing in the Moonlight, I'd gladly have done so.

What does Steiner have to say about slugs?

Well I searched the rsarchive for slugs and nothing came up, so he can't have mentioned them while his interpreter was around. It struck me he was silent about slugs because their antennae or feelers or whatever those stick-like things on their heads are go in and out. That puts Steiner on the spot, because according to him, cow horns have the curvature they have in order to direct the cosmic forces back into the cow, which needs lots of energy to digest all that grass they eat, particularly as they have two stomachs. Antlers on the other hand are shaped the way they are to disperse the cosmic forces from the deer into the sky. Seeing how slugs can move their horns like a cat does its claws, it is anyone's guess what slugs do with the cosmic forces. Best to avoid the subject perhaps.

Interesting to see you are a professional gardener jethro. I suppose you know Steiner found out that red flowers are red because of Mars' cosmic forces, while yellow ones are yellow because of Saturn, and blue because of Venus?

[Gowon]

No one is suggesting you cannot think for yourself

To say she's more qualified than any of us implies that we can't have apposing views/opinions.

Those paper qualifications don't come out of Christmas Crackers, they take time and considerable effort to acquire

And?

Politeness demands that we all watch what we say.

Are you serious? I didn't know that this was a communist country. I was stating my point of view/opinion.

I talk to everybody the same way, whether you're street sweeper or a high court judge.

preferably with supporting scientific evidence

I don't need to back anything up or post up links. The information and data is there for everyone to access on the net.

I guess we just gonna have to agree to disagree.

Their still seems to be a incorrect assumption that solar has impacted global temperatures.

So far it has not...(at least according to anything I have seen).

BTW I am not doubting that low solar with a host of other things can effect temperatures as I am sure it did during the LIA along with other things. However firstly sunspot activity does not equate directly to less energy from the sun.

Secondly although we have experienced some colder weather(even record breakingly cold last month), this is not due to a cooling world.

I have yet to see a prediction of a cooling world come off yet in my 20 years of interest in climate change and AGW.

This current La Nina phase is running out of steam and their are signs of another possible El Nino by the end of this year, probably another west based one. Both myself and Android showed research and graphs that clearly demonstrated the 2 or 3 month lag of global temps to ENSO considering that we have had 6 negative months of ENSO now cooling should be very mush underway, but it still aludes us.

Re the cold in this country there are a few papers talking about the link between ice loss and Jet amplification, i.e the lack of ice allows more WAA, more ridging more amplicafication, If this happens then we can hope that the new set up of n.Hemisphere winters might be 2009-11 however with the winter ice getting weaker and weaker due to more WAA maybe it's a setup that we can enjoy but not those a generation or 2 down the line.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ Not according to them. Check temperature change for the last 2 weeks.

Edited January 5, 2011 by Higrade

[Nick B]

No one is suggesting you cannot think for yourself

To say she's more qualified than any of us implies that we can't have apposing views/opinions.

Those paper qualifications don't come out of Christmas Crackers, they take time and considerable effort to acquire

And?

Politeness demands that we all watch what we say.

Are you serious? I didn't know that this was a communist country. I was stating my point of view/opinion.

I talk to everybody the same way, whether you're street sweeper or a high court judge.

preferably with supporting scientific evidence

I don't need to back anything up or post up links. The information and data is there for everyone to access on the net.

I guess we just gonna have to agree to disagree.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ Not according to them. Check temperature change for the last 2 weeks.

Actually, when you look at the last couple slides for the Pacific, the increase in area of cold seems to have risen quite dramatically. The Atlantic's area of cold is also growing, it seems...

Edited January 5, 2011 by Nick B

[Iceberg]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ Not according to them. Check temperature change for the last 2 weeks.

See the below taken from the link you gave, the west has started warming, the east is as cool as before, given that La Ninas break down from the west and given the predictions also from your link I think it's fair to say that La Nina is running of of steam as predictions show it will lessen from here on and current observations back this up.

"The four-month sequence of sub-surface Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomalies, to 31 December, shows that a large volume of cooler than normal water has been evident below the surface of the tropical Pacific for many months. Sub-surface water in the central and eastern Pacific has remained cooler than usual during December, with central areas more than 4 °C cooler than usual. The sequence also shows that warm anomalies in the western Pacific have continued to develop over the last four months.

Weekly sub-surface:

The map for the 5 days ending 3 January shows a large volume of cooler than normal water below the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean. When compared with two weeks ago, there has been a cooling in the eastern Pacific and a warming in the west. In the eastern Pacific Ocean, a large volume of sub-surface water is more than 4 °C cooler than normal for this time of the year, on a weekly scale. "

[jethro]

Their still seems to be a incorrect assumption that solar has impacted global temperatures.

So far it has not...(at least according to anything I have seen).

BTW I am not doubting that low solar with a host of other things can effect temperatures as I am sure it did during the LIA along with other things. However firstly sunspot activity does not equate directly to less energy from the sun.

Secondly although we have experienced some colder weather(even record breakingly cold last month), this is not due to a cooling world.

I have yet to see a prediction of a cooling world come off yet in my 20 years of interest in climate change and AGW.

This current La Nina phase is running out of steam and their are signs of another possible El Nino by the end of this year, probably another west based one. Both myself and Android showed research and graphs that clearly demonstrated the 2 or 3 month lag of global temps to ENSO considering that we have had 6 negative months of ENSO now cooling should be very mush underway, but it still aludes us.

Re the cold in this country there are a few papers talking about the link between ice loss and Jet amplification, i.e the lack of ice allows more WAA, more ridging more amplicafication, If this happens then we can hope that the new set up of n.Hemisphere winters might be 2009-11 however with the winter ice getting weaker and weaker due to more WAA maybe it's a setup that we can enjoy but not those a generation or 2 down the line.

It's the changing weather patterns which interest me the most; I do wish we could briefly fast forward 20 years or so to see if we are entering a deep Solar minimum and the impact it may have.

Well I searched the rsarchive for slugs and nothing came up, so he can't have mentioned them while his interpreter was around. It struck me he was silent about slugs because their antennae or feelers or whatever those stick-like things on their heads are go in and out. That puts Steiner on the spot, because according to him, cow horns have the curvature they have in order to direct the cosmic forces back into the cow, which needs lots of energy to digest all that grass they eat, particularly as they have two stomachs. Antlers on the other hand are shaped the way they are to disperse the cosmic forces from the deer into the sky. Seeing how slugs can move their horns like a cat does its claws, it is anyone's guess what slugs do with the cosmic forces. Best to avoid the subject perhaps.

Interesting to see you are a professional gardener jethro. I suppose you know Steiner found out that red flowers are red because of Mars' cosmic forces, while yellow ones are yellow because of Saturn, and blue because of Venus?

I'm not liking the idea of Slugs and Cosmic forces, they're amply armed enough already.

Does that make Pluto responsible for Purple ones? Perhaps all those variable coloured ones like Parrot Tulips are down to Meteor showers?

No one is suggesting you cannot think for yourself

To say she's more qualified than any of us implies that we can't have apposing views/opinions.

Those paper qualifications don't come out of Christmas Crackers, they take time and considerable effort to acquire

And?

Politeness demands that we all watch what we say.

Are you serious? I didn't know that this was a communist country. I was stating my point of view/opinion.

I talk to everybody the same way, whether you're street sweeper or a high court judge.

preferably with supporting scientific evidence

I don't need to back anything up or post up links. The information and data is there for everyone to access on the net.

I guess we just gonna have to agree to disagre

So presumably you're rude to every one in equal measure......what a strange way to behave.

As it happens, we don't have to agree to disagree, I'm the official politeness monitor around here; polite respectfulness is a pre-requisite around these parts. Argue about the specifics of AGW till the cows come home, but do it without resorting to insulting remarks.

[knocker]

Sometimes you have to use a bit of "logic" and think outside the box. Go and read up about past climates, solar cycles, try and do your own little research instead of taking everything as gospel.

Didn't know much about Dr Liz Bentley until I googled her.... I see, she used to work at the Met office...say no more

Leaving aside your fatuous remark about working for the MO I find your comment "Go and read up about past climates, solar cycles, try and do your own little research instead of taking everything as gospel" as quite insulting as you have no idea what I have read. You appear to think I'm some sort of moron.

[pottyprof]

OK.. Enough is enough.

The next impolite post from any party, that poster will receive an indefinite ban.

I'm not asking you to agree on opposing views, I am asking you to be a little more respectful in your posting.

This is Netweather, not some of the other poor excuses of a slanging match forum. We will not tolerate it.

Please read and adhere to these rules --> http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=forums&module=forums&section=rules&f=105

[Gowon]

Pottyprof

I apologise for the way I conducted myself earlier, and I shouldn't have let my emotions get better of me

Leaving aside your fatuous remark about working for the MO I find your comment "Go and read up about past climates, solar cycles, try and do your own little research instead of taking everything as gospel" as quite insulting as you have no idea what I have read. You appear to think I'm some sort of moron.

Far from it mate....

I was responding to your post which you mentioned that I was being illogical.

I sincerely apologise if I've upset you.

Edited January 6, 2011 by Higrade

[ZONE 51]

The next impolite post from any party, that poster will receive an indefinite ban.

Please read and adhere to these rules --> http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=forums&module=forums&section=rules&f=105

In climate discussions things get to tough talking.. this is likely to happen, but we are all friends on NetWeather, friendly hard debates are possible, remember the BBC HardTalk show? Edited January 6, 2011 by nimbilus

[Iceberg]

Well Spencer has come out and given his Dec 2010 figure and it's ..... 0.18C.

Which seems rather low compared to the other figures.

However he has universally and I've got to be honest I am not sure for the real reason, changed his base average to make most of his values 0.1C lower.

With this in mind 2010 was 0.01C lower than 1998 making it the second highest.

With the old dataset 2010 comes out as the warmest year on record.

I would add that this means that when you compare UAH with RSS or any of the other datasets it will always seem low, however you have to realise that if have an average of 1981 to 2010, then by the vary definition an average away from that norm is likely to be high given that 1981-2010 was on average 0.3C high than the Met's 61-90 average.

Anyway as long as you compare like with like there is unlikely to be much difference or much of a problem, just don't compare UAH with HAD figure for figure as it will be well out of kilter now.

Finally to add if this were HAD using a new dataset that made everything appear warmer then the outcry from certain quarters could be heard from the moon.

Regardless of the lies, damn lies and statistics pretty much anyone involved in any global temperature measureing has 2010 as either the warmest or 2nd warmest on record.

2011 will certaintly be cooling I think the big question is will it be cooling than average or not and will the cyclical baseline continue to move upwards.

[Village]

I quite agree there because take the pacific for example although the ocean itself happens to be much warmer sea ice is still increasing due to surface tempreatures. But the tempreature of the water doesn't mean the global tempreature will also inevitably correspond. The sun spot is at a minnimum but many refuse to acknowledge this because it doesn't suit their everybody panic and drive an electric car or we're doomed agenda haha

:good: :good:

Absolutely spot on

:good: :good:

Some people actually believed Gordon Brown when he used to say; If you pay me more taxes I can save the planet for you! A tax on climate? what a joke.

He was sent marching

Edited January 6, 2011 by Village

[Isolated Frost]

Posted 26 October 2008 - 09:42

and maybe this is the point, we are often accused of "cherry picking " data to suit but surely a record El-Nino year is data outside the range of natural variability and ,as such, needs to be discarded in case it 'skews' the data set. That said I strongly suspect that we will experience yet another 'record' Nino' event within 5 years and , if I'm correct, we'll see the same folk wishing the data expunged from any 10yr rolling average showing slowdown/cooling of global temps.

We cannot have it both ways. We either allow 'extreme' climate events or discard them from any attempt to organise any climate 'trend'.

To include both the last years La-Nina 'cooling' in any graph along side a record El-Nino 'warming' event is poor science . As I have said, next up is a strong El-Nino (one after next???), do we prove record acceleration of warming by posting the 'cooled' La-Nina year hard up against the El -Nino year????

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

Posted by Gray-Wolf in 2008, well-done