New Iceage? Much Evidence? - Global Cooling

[pottyprof]

It's got to be something to do with the moon... or the sun.... or perhaps the position of the planets.. or perhaps it's to do with those little lumps of rock that explode in your mouth.........??

[Richie V]

It's got to be something to do with the moon... or the sun.... or perhaps the position of the planets.. or perhaps it's to do with those little lumps of rock that explode in your mouth.........??

I blame the gremlins

Oh my, I need another shot of CO2

Edited September 30, 2010 by Chassisbot

[Guest mycroft]

Struth, can't a man make a honest mistake without being condemned and ridiculed! Should I be watching your posts for spulling mistikes from now on and you expect condemnation and ribicule if you make a mistake? Of course not...

A billion times more informed - quite a bit then . I don't know about either man's bank balance but I am pretty sure Al Gore wasn't spouting 'doom and glom' in the 70's about and impending ice age - but have you got a ref for that claim?

Who's condemned you, i happly say yes to the ridicle bit,for stating Al Gore is informed

As for the spelling mistake ? don;t know what you're on about we all make them on here me more than most i would

assume!

If you can't debate without going off on one,thats not my fault.

you're the one who jumped in about photos of subs,then it went to Anthony Watts is an active republican

i've countered that, and you seem to be playing the wronged one????

If you wish to point out mistakes i make, please do spelling? or otherwise...you had a bad day or something!

sorry but i can not find the link to gore and the 70's

Edited September 30, 2010 by mycroft

[Paul]

I'd strongly recommend some of you read the terms of posting in this part of the forum, it'd be a shame if we had to enforce bans on some involved in this thread...

http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=forums&module=forums&section=rules&f=105

[VillagePlank]

I agree, it's hard (impossible) to buy into an argument which suggests that temperature readings are being skewed in terms of their accuracy because they're positioned close to built up areas. In my mind they're not being skewed at all, they're giving an accurate representation of the temperature on earth - you can't dismiss the heat rise associated with towns and cities as an inaccuracy, as it's real and a reflection of what's happening across the planet as the population grows.

As with all arguments it's useful to think of the nth degree.

Would it be wise, for instance, to stick thermometers in people's ovens, and then claim that it is indicative of local climate. Well, actually is is - if you are measuring inside of the oven, but I suspect we'd all agree, that it doesn't really say much about the macro-scale temperature. OK then, let's move out a bit - let's stick it in the kitchen. A similar problem. How about stuck to the outside wall of the house - closer, but still same problem ....

Of course, the converse is also true - do you stick thermometers in frost-hollows? Well, I'd take a guess, some of them are. Is there enough thermometers placed around the globe to meet the necessary for the law of large numbers?

There's only one way to measure it in my view: measure insolation coming in, measure insolation going out - from satellites - the difference is the rate of heating. From the rate of heating one can infer how warm it is: Actually, one can also infer the current planet temp from the peaks of radiation leaving the Earth's atmosphere since the wavelength of radiation leaving depends on how hot it is.

Thermometers are a red-herring in my view - the piece of the jigsaw puzzle between paleo-climatology and ultra-modern techniques which, alas, have yet to be implemented.

Edited October 1, 2010 by VillagePlank

[Methuselah]

A closed peer review process, as if you need to be to about that,see Oxburgh inquiry minutes

A for oft repeated things doe's that include oft repeated alarmism from the Team! :blush:

Actually Mycroft, in my opinion, it does...I see from yesterday's Times that the Climate Change message is being adjusted in the hope of doing-away with many of the most outlandish predictions...Instead, they are to emphasize uncertainty...

That said, the uncertainty is clearly apparent in the IPCC's reports. Maybe the desire to dumb-down (it's always easier than educating - especially where politics rears its ugly head!) has oversimplified the message??

Proper peer-reviewed process? LOL. Should be called bias peer-review process. These people aren't willing to debate climate issues with skeptics. Also its pot calling kettle black when claims are made over and over again to prove one's theory.

By 'bias' [sic] do you mean: doesn't reach the preferred conclusion?? And, anyway, you don't prove a theory, you disprove it...And that requires evidence to the contrary - and not anecdote+opinion+repetition...

So you saying the pictures are fakes????

More probably irrelevant?

[The watcher]

I wonder if this warming can be linked to anything else, like the sun.

Is the sun increasing in size rapidly, are we very slowly getting closer to the sun?

I mean how do we actually measure the distance from here to the sun or the size of the sun to notice anything like that?

To me, globally there is no doubt temperatures have increased, in localitys though is a different story, some places might be cooler, wetter, drier, hotter, etc. I mean if somewhere for instance has wetter weather than normal, then its gonna be cloudier than normal which means night time mins won't drop much....so definitely this contributes to helping averages rise, etc.

[Gray-Wolf]

Anyhoos, back to any evidence for an approaching ice age? We've had a lead authority assure us (Richard Alley over on the Arctic ice thread) that we may well skip a couple of precessional 'cooldowns' due to our current 'position' in space so we need to be looking for a known 'forcing' that not only has shown itself to drive global cool-downs but to also overcome this extra hurdle of the earths position for the next 46,000yrs?

Anyone got any ideas? (no pressure!)

I'm still quite convinced that we have an emerging driver across the Arctic (Arctic Amplification) which , in turn, will impact all the other cyclical, circulatory processes in the atmosphere/oceans leading to further reinforcement of the exceptional warming we note within the arctic. We need to be aware of this 'trickle down' impact on the PDO/ENSO cycles (and more importantly their historical impacts) and look for changes that may well lead us back to this new , novel climate forcing.

Edited October 1, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[knocker]

I wonder if this warming can be linked to anything else, like the sun.

Is the sun increasing in size rapidly, are we very slowly getting closer to the sun?

I mean how do we actually measure the distance from here to the sun or the size of the sun to notice anything like that?

It's a tad complicated so I will upload it as a brief PDF doc. The reference "The Cambridge Encyclopedia of the Sun", Kennethh R. Lang. Enjoy.

Edited October 1, 2010 by weather ship

[Iceberg]

Which brings back to the end of the circle again, regardless of sat or thermo's we get the roughly the same warming, so why on earth do people think (40% of people in this poll) that we are cooling when there is no evidence whatever to support this......

[Gray-Wolf]

Which brings back to the end of the circle again, regardless of sat or thermo's we get the roughly the same warming, so why on earth do people think (40% of people in this poll) that we are cooling when there is no evidence whatever to support this......

Hi Ice!

I think you have to factor in the distortion of the board. If the 'probability' that we have the picture correct is over 90% then every 9 posts agreeing with the consensus should be met by 1 post questioning the science.

As it's pretty much a 50/50 split for the posts on here then the dissenters can be seen to have a disproportionate representation (as compared to the 'real world'?) on here. The same applies to the poll of course and so I'd hope that the lurkers understand how twisted a view we give here.......as ever, No pressure......LOL

[The watcher]

It's a tad complicated so I will upload it as a brief PDF doc. The reference "The Cambridge Encyclopedia of the Sun", Kennethh R. Lang. Enjoy.

Thanks weather ship. I will indeed enjoy.

[jethro]

Which brings back to the end of the circle again, regardless of sat or thermo's we get the roughly the same warming, so why on earth do people think (40% of people in this poll) that we are cooling when there is no evidence whatever to support this......

Possibly because folk think local, instead of global? A couple of years ago, prior to the last couple of winters I'd bet the results would have been very different.

Greywolf - quit with the dissenters eh, you're appealing for more folk to get involved, that kind of divisive attitude is hardly welcoming.

[Iceberg]

Possibly Jethro, but I really hope not.

The thread has Global Cooling in the title.

The poll is called Do you believe the world is Cooling or Heating up

and the question is

In your opinion, is the world's surface tempreature increasing o'r decreasing

If people can't understand the global world meaning in all this there really isn't any hope.

I've got a feeling is might have more to do with the level of noise over content, the content just isn't getting though due to the level of untruth.

[jethro]

I've got a feeling is might have more to do with the level of noise over content, the content just isn't getting though due to the level of untruth.

Possibly but as soon as truth/untruth enters the debate, I think people switch off. What is truth to one person is untruth to another and there isn't much middle ground, merely lots of indignation.

At the end of the day it doesn't really matter what anyone thinks or believes, re-cycling is being imposed as will increased energy prices and possibly a carbon tax. Governments will make decisions regardless of what you, I or the entire human race believe to be true.

[Iceberg]

I wish it were Jetho(at least for my views), however the US govt shows that if enough people don't want it, they won't do it.

[chionomaniac]

Possibly Jethro, but I really hope not.

The thread has Global Cooling in the title.

The poll is called Do you believe the world is Cooling or Heating up

and the question is

In your opinion, is the world's surface tempreature increasing o'r decreasing

If people can't understand the global world meaning in all this there really isn't any hope.

I've got a feeling is might have more to do with the level of noise over content, the content just isn't getting though due to the level of untruth.

I think that a weather board forum attracts a certain type of person. It takes a lot, if your preference is for colder weather (and remember previous polls have suggested that for the majority of members here, that is true) to remove that inherent bias that may exist. I know that I probably am biased which is why I haven't replied to the poll. My heart tells me one thing , my head the other.

[barrel1234]

I dont think the poll asked a good enough question, If it had asked what we have been experiencing recently I would have said warming..... but right now I personally think that we are probably staying the same and in the near future I think that Global temps will probably cool. So for me I have opted out of the poll because I don't think the question really fits.

[Gray-Wolf]

Maybe a continuation/acceleration of our current warming will help show those folk who expect 'cooling' to think again?

Maybe it'll condemn many species to the same fate as the Dodo but at least more folk will have no option other than to accept both the temp rises and also that the majority of science is correct in it's appraisals or look silly?

[Methuselah]

It's Von Daniken's Cullender'...It retains all the anacdotes but lets the data slip through?? The counterbalance to Occam's Razor??

[Gray-Wolf]

It's Von Daniken's Cullender'...It retains all the anacdotes but lets the data slip through?? The counterbalance to Occam's Razor??

Yin and yan? surely not!

[ZONE 51]

Anyone go along with this idea-Global Warming melts ice/ice caps, freshwater enters the north atlantic ocean affecting the gulf stream conveyer, the north/mid atlantic cools, add in low solar activity/low spot count, then the Uk, North Europe and East America(coastside) cools down, this causing cooling in this part of the globe, the only factor that can change things is el-nino, last winter it could not, and this winter its la-nina, la-nina causes severe blocking in parts of globe and droughts/severe heat, and floods in other parts, but winter blocking patterns its severe cold, think of Russia and the summer heat, imagine the winter their in for, now think about the rest of N-Europe.

[stewfox]

I changed =my

Possibly because folk think local, instead of global? A couple of years ago, prior to the last couple of winters I'd bet the results would have been very different.

Greywolf - quit with the dissenters eh, you're appealing for more folk to get involved, that kind of divisive attitude is hardly welcoming.

I changed my vote to cooling because of the circular argumentative nature of the thread. A protest vote I wouldn’t read too much into the voting.

[sunny starry skies]

I think that a weather board forum attracts a certain type of person. It takes a lot, if your preference is for colder weather (and remember previous polls have suggested that for the majority of members here, that is true) to remove that inherent bias that may exist. I know that I probably am biased which is why I haven't replied to the poll. My heart tells me one thing , my head the other.

It's an excellent point about weather boards - I wonder how many people realise that this instinctive bias is present? Add to that a prevalence among meteorologists to think either that climate cannot be changed by people, or that people cannot measure climate (think Watts, Joe IKEA-Flooring, or whatever he's called), and you end up with an odd situation where the very people who might be in a position to observe some of the subtleties of the changes happening in our atmosphere prefer to think it is or must be cooling/all natural/ anything but people. I remember an article about different groups and their views on AGW - meteorologists featured remarkably negative views, in contrast to other science fields and of course climate scientists, and the climate data itself.

Goes to show that weather isn't climate...

[Methuselah]

It's an excellent point about weather boards - I wonder how many people realise that this instinctive bias is present? Add to that a prevalence among meteorologists to think either that climate cannot be changed by people, or that people cannot measure climate (think Watts, Joe IKEA-Flooring, or whatever he's called), and you end up with an odd situation where the very people who might be in a position to observe some of the subtleties of the changes happening in our atmosphere prefer to think it is or must be cooling/all natural/ anything but people. I remember an article about different groups and their views on AGW - meteorologists featured remarkably negative views, in contrast to other science fields and of course climate scientists, and the climate data itself.

Goes to show that weather isn't climate...

I agree with all of that...But - I am also biased in favour of cold weather - the evidence, alas, clearly indicates the very opposite.