Antarctic Ice Discussion

[be cause]

Antarctic ice only 0.21 short of record.

http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic

 

 

     Another strange choice of claim .. as once again today  the Antarctic ice area is at an all time record for the date 

[stewfox]

     Another strange choice of claim .. as once again today  the Antarctic ice area is at an all time record for the date 

 

From that graph its clearly below the 2010 the blue line.

 

I don't buy all these records are down to the wind.

Edited July 23, 2013 by stewfox

[knocker]

.

 

I don't buy all these records are down to the wind.

 

What would be your preferred alternative? And I'm not quite clear about "all these records".

[stewfox]

What would be your preferred alternative? And I'm not quite clear about "all these records".

 

Extent records as mentioned above.

 

re 'Other theories' some listed in the attached, I'm sure its a combination of factors.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/antarctic-sea-ice-reaches-greatest-extent-so-late-in-season-2nd-largest-extent-on-record/2012/09/28/472625d8-098e-11e2-a10c-fa5a255a9258_blog.html

Edited July 23, 2013 by stewfox

[Methuselah]

The only data that interest me concern mass; I understand J/kg...I admit to having problems with J/m² and J/m³...

[stewfox]

The only data that interest me concern mass; I understand J/kg...I admit to having problems with J/m² and J/m³...

 

The 'mass' of the sea ice ?? I'd guess less then 1% of the total ice/snow mass  down there ?

 

"The Antarctic Ice Cap contains about 85% of the world’s ice, which is about 80% of all the fresh water on earth. That ice weights about 27 million billion tons (24,500 million billion kg). It’s difficult to conceptualize a number that large

[knocker]

Extent records as mentioned above.

 

re 'Other theories' some listed in the attached, I'm sure its a combination of factors.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/antarctic-sea-ice-reaches-greatest-extent-so-late-in-season-2nd-largest-extent-on-record/2012/09/28/472625d8-098e-11e2-a10c-fa5a255a9258_blog.html

 

But from your own link.

 

* From the Houston Chronicle SciGuy, Eric Berger: “ Unlike the Arctic, Antarctica is surrounding by water, so its less responsive to changes in air temperatures. Its climate is more governed by wind and ocean currents.†See related explanation on the National Snow and Ice Data Center’s website.

 

 

Are you disputing your own link?

 

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-10/nsfc-oba102312.php

 

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-04/bas-ias042109.php

 

Anyway surely it's the loss of mass from the glaciers that's important not the increase in sea ice unless it originated from the glaciers.?

Edited July 23, 2013 by knocker

[stewfox]

But from your own link.

 

 

Are you disputing your own link?

 

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-10/nsfc-oba102312.php

 

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-04/bas-ias042109.php

 

Anyway surely it's the loss of mass from the glaciers that's important not the increase in sea ice unless it originated from the glaciers.?

 

I said "I don't buy all these records are down to the wind" which your above post confirms ??

 

I didn't say " I think the wind has nothing to do with ice spread" ??

[Gray-Wolf]

In the larger reality the ice 'records' are down to mankind and his 'experiment' with destroying ozone?

 

The changesin temp the loss of ozone produces in the Strat perculate down to the surface promoting cooling across the EAIS, stronger Circumpolar winds and by this a stronger circumpolar current.

 

Once the ozone hole is gone we will see those winds reduce and the EAIS temps rise. If you want a peak at whatthis means take a look at the Antlartic peninsula which pokes out beyond the influencs of those winds/currents ( for those who don't know it is the fastest warming place on the planet!)

 

Those "Climate Misleaders" have chosen a lame duck by looking at Antarctica as a proof of an oppositeof AGW as it will rush to' normalise' with global forcing once the human element of the Circumpolars is reduced tothe point that the 'warming' overpowers them allowing heat into the interior.

 

We already see the circumpolar current overcome by warm southern ocean waters perculating below the C.C. ,via deep canyons, and easting the base of some of the W.A.I.S. drain glaciers/shelfs.

[keithlucky]

Antarctic sea ice breaks the record of 17.26 million sq km on July 22.

[be cause]

Antarctic sea ice breaks the record of 17.26 million sq km on July 22.

 

 

Phew .. at last you have an actual factual record to report .. today is also the 6th day in the last 7 that Antarctic sea ice has broken the daily area record .. (CT)

[keithlucky]

Actually this is the 11 daily record to fall

this year No of Records 2010 128 2008 125 2006 27 2012 27 2007 21 2013 11 2009 8 2004 5 1998 4 2000 4 2005 3 1979 2 1980 1

Edited July 25, 2013 by keithlucky

[knocker]

Antarctica permafrost melt spurred by solar radiation boost

 

Accelerated melting of buried ice in a dry valley of Antarctica may be a harbinger for widespread thawing of permafrost at Earth’s far latitudes as worldwide climate patterns change, according to a new study.

 

The tenfold increase from ancient melt rates evident in a dry valley near McMurdo Bay over little more than a decade comes despite a local two-decade cooling trend.

 

Cliff-face measurements of the buried ice in the four-mile-long Garwood Valley revealed melt rates that shifted from a creeping annual rate of about 40,000 cubic feet per year over six milleniums, to more than 402,000 cubic feet last year alone, according to the report published Wednesday in the journal Nature Scientific Reports. (That’s a leap from the capacity of about eight standard railroad boxcars to 77.)

 

“We think what we’re seeing here is sort of a crystal ball of what coastal Antarctica is going to experience,†said geologist Joseph Levy, of the University of Texas, lead author of the study. “When you start warming buried ice and other permafrost in the dry valley, it’s going to start to melt and it’s going to start melting in a style that’s consistent with permafrost thaw in the Arctic.â€

 

The data come from measurements of a thermokarst area, an irregular formation of marshy subsiding ground often found in thawing permafrost areas at Earth’s other extreme latitudes, the Arctic, and in high alpine environments.

 

http://www.latimes.com/news/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-antarctica-ice-melt-20130724-dto,0,2931766.htmlstory

Edited July 26, 2013 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

Seeing as the warm Southern Oceans snuck under the Circumpolar current and is now impacting as far as the Ross Embayment I see no reason why this should not continue?

 

We have to rememberthat past warmings have seen East Antarctica the first place to melt ( with the loss of Ross and the opening of the ocean channel between East and West Antarctica) so our 'tinkerings' with the Ozone have only forestalled the inevitable.....the question has to be will the growing warmth overpower the ozone impact or will the Ozone heal first?

 

Either way it'll be fast.

[keithlucky]

4th daily record in 5 days

[keithlucky]

5th daily record of sea ice in 6 days ,with more records to come.

[Crepuscular Ray]

Keith, could you post a link to the source of that graph, please. It would be interesting to see if they have any hypotheses. Thanks.

[keithlucky]

Keith, could you post a link to the source of that graph, please. It would be interesting to see if they have any hypotheses. Thanks.

Posted ithe link a few pages back.

Artic sea ice area is graphed here http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent_prev.htm

and here http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic

Note the difference between sea ice area and sea ice extent (which is also influenced by wind)

Also of interest is http://endofgw.blogspot.com/

New daily record broken again 6th record in 7 days

[Methuselah]

Posted ithe link a few pages back.

Artic sea ice area is graphed here http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent_prev.htm

and here http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic

Note the difference between sea ice area and sea ice extent (which is also influenced by wind)

Also of interest is http://endofgw.blogspot.com/

New daily record broken again 6th record in 7 days

Totally in line with AGW theory's predictions...

[keithlucky]

Keith, could you post a link to the source of that graph, please. It would be interesting to see if they have any hypotheses. Thanks.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/index.htm

Totally in line with AGW theory's predictions...

Also inline with global cooling predictions linked to low solar activityhttp://t.co/dhRZQNlZwe

Edited July 30, 2013 by keithlucky

[Methuselah]

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/index.htm

Also inline with global cooling predictions linked to low solar activityhttp://t.co/dhRZQNlZwe

I think that it's all so interconnected that we'll never truly make sense of if all, keith... 

[knocker]

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/index.htm

Also inline with global cooling predictions linked to low solar activityhttp://t.co/dhRZQNlZwe

 

But if that is correct it's being very selective. The Antarctic Peninsula is warming faster than just about anywhere on earth and the western Antarctic is losing mass, the implications of which are far worse that a slight increase in sea ice.

[stewfox]

But if that is correct it's being very selective. The Antarctic Peninsula is warming faster than just about anywhere on earth and the western Antarctic is losing mass, the implications of which are far worse that a slight increase in sea ice.

 

Ok lets remove 'selection'

 

Lets look at East Antarctica ?

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Antarctic_Ice_Sheet

 

---------------------------------------

More recent estimate published in November 2012 and based on the GRACE data as well as on an improved glacial isostatic adjustment model indicates that the East Antarctica actually gained mass from 2002 to 2010 at a rate of 60 ± 13 Gt/y.  (60 Billion metric tonnes = 60 Gt/y)

-----------------------------------------

 

As of November of 2012 the total mass loss from the West Antarctica is estimated at 118 ± 9 Gt/y mainly from the Amundsen Sea coast.^[7]

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Antarctic_Ice_Sheet

 

So overall lets assume Antarctica maybe losing some mass say 60 Billion a year ?

 

or here (slightly different figures)

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_ice_sheet

 

Perspective

 

To put this into context 69 Billion tonnes represents 0.0002% of the mass of Antarctica. I would lose far more 'body mass' sitting in a chair for 10 minutes doing nothing

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 30, 2013 by stewfox

[BornFromTheVoid]

Are you  just being 'selective' then but not 'very selective' re The Antarctica Peninsula ?

 

What about East Antarctica ? I'm being a bit  'selective' as it contains 25 times the mass of the Peninsula

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Antarctic_Ice_Sheet

 

---------------------------------------

More recent estimate published in November 2012 and based on the GRACE data as well as on an improved glacial isostatic adjustment model indicates that the East Antarctica actually gained mass from 2002 to 2010 at a rate of 60 ± 13 Gt/y.^[4

-----------------------------------------

 

How about looking at all of the worlds ice sheets? Or even just all of Antarctica?

 

 

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/338/6111/1183

 

 

We combined an ensemble of satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry data sets using common geographical regions, time intervals, and models of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment to estimate the mass balance of Earth’s polar ice sheets. We find that there is good agreement between different satellite methods—especially in Greenland and West Antarctica—and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty. Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by –142 ± 49, +14 ± 43, –65 ± 26, and –20 ± 14 gigatonnes year−1, respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 ± 0.20 millimeter year−1 to the rate of global sea-level rise.

[stewfox]

How about looking at all of the worlds ice sheets? Or even just all of Antarctica?

 

 

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/338/6111/1183

 

 

We combined an ensemble of satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry data sets using common geographical regions, time intervals, and models of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment to estimate the mass balance of Earth’s polar ice sheets. We find that there is good agreement between different satellite methods—especially in Greenland and West Antarctica—and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty. Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by –142 ± 49, +14 ± 43, –65 ± 26, and –20 ± 14 gigatonnes year−1, respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 ± 0.20 millimeter year−1 to the rate of global sea-level rise.

 

To be fair this is a Antarctica ice discussion thread so I wasn't going to talk about Greenland ?

 

Although the figures you quoted I don't dispute , the graphs look 'impressive' which is what their meant to be

 

If we saw a graph showing actual percentage of mass lost at around 0.00002% per year they would be very boring .