Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

[ZONE 51]

What its looking like is that the SE england and EA is to be the coldest, BUT Northern areas by no means much warmer, starting to see the setup developing now that i was expecting a while a go, and for snow dont worry, from north to south expect unusual developments for snow, i must say i myself and others think something unusual is happening, dont forget we have the solar minumum, we could be stuck in widespread cold and dry(for a long period), once things get underway, with snow generated by north sea convection. and it starts next week! it is exciting.

[Weather-history]

sorry Mr Data, forgive my ignorance but wasn't 1954/55 a snowy winter?

Yes post Christmas it was although, a weaker form of La Nina was present.

[AderynCoch]

Joe laminate floori's blog makes for grim reading this morning. He's convinced southern Europe is place to be this winter. To quote "Most of the "continent" is cold and it's Ireland, northern and central Great Britain and Scandinavia that has the shot at warmer than normal."

Most of the continent cold...and us warmer. Sounds like the sort of farcical thing that could happen, so he'll probably turn out to be right.

Sod's law - it happened in January 2006, when extremely cold air flooded westwards but dived south before reaching us. Even Lisbon had falling snow. Despite not being mild, that was a terrible winter for snow until March unexpectedly saved its bacon (for me at least).

That was a standout example, but I'm sure failed easterlies have occurred more times than I care to remember. The Riviera seems to get once-in-a-generation snowfalls every winter (yes, I'm exaggerating). Needless to say if the coming winter is going to be full of nearly-but-not-quite snow events, I might as well start looking forward to spring. :unsure:

[snoangel]

I like this article from BBC news. Talks of the possible link between low solar activity>>effect on stratosphere>>increased blocking in Europe>>colder winters in UK...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8615789.stm

I love the snow, but I want to be realistic and this is one of the few articles on the web that isn't preaching a 'Day after tomorrow' disaster scenario!

I like that the researchers think they have found a link, but balance the story by stressing that other factors are also important on the weather, e.g. low solar activity doesn't automatically equal cold winter...

...But it is another factor that is in our favour this winter... and, oh look, we are likely to see blocking next week....

[johnholmes]

this may be of interest to some folk

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/ensoforecast.shtml

a major upgrade of the CFS output.

[Strider]

Looks pretty average to me...

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mMon.gif

[West Sussex Kate]

London & South East

UK Outlook for Tuesday 23 Nov 2010 to Thursday 2 Dec 2010:

A generally unsettled and chilly start with clear or sunny spells in central and western parts, but cloudier with showers in the east, perhaps frequent at first. The showers will be wintry over hills, particularly in the north. It will gradually turn colder through next week with showers turning increasingly wintry to lower levels with a risk of some significant accumulations of snow in northern and eastern parts. Temperatures below average for the time of year with an increasing risk of overnight frost and icy surfaces, especially where skies clear. Feeling cold in the often fresh and mainly northeasterly wind. The cold theme continues into December for most parts, with northern and eastern parts most at risk from wintry weather, although western parts may start to turn less cold.

[bobbydog]

London & South East

UK Outlook for Tuesday 23 Nov 2010 to Thursday 2 Dec 2010:

A generally unsettled and chilly start with clear or sunny spells in central and western parts, but cloudier with showers in the east, perhaps frequent at first. The showers will be wintry over hills, particularly in the north. It will gradually turn colder through next week with showers turning increasingly wintry to lower levels with a risk of some significant accumulations of snow in northern and eastern parts. Temperatures below average for the time of year with an increasing risk of overnight frost and icy surfaces, especially where skies clear. Feeling cold in the often fresh and mainly northeasterly wind. The cold theme continues into December for most parts, with northern and eastern parts most at risk from wintry weather, although western parts may start to turn less cold.

good to remind people but i did post this at the top of the page

[19jacobob93]

this may be of interest to some folk

http://www.cpc.ncep....oforecast.shtml

a major upgrade of the CFS output.

ive noticed they are now going for a colder than average january, whereas yesterday they were going for a milder one. i hope there upgrade brings better consistency!

[artfularshavin]

Looks pretty average to me...

http://www.cpc.noaa....s3/euT2mMon.gif

how you mean average lol! its showing dark blue for DEC and blue for JAN that mean below avg temps!

[19jacobob93]

some people on here seem to be getting surface temps and anomalies mixed up! just because the anomalies are colder for the SE doesnt mean its going to be colder there than it is in scotland!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Indeed- late November maxima range from a mean of 9-10C in the southeast to 7C in northeast Scotland, so if we have negative anomalies of 4C in northeast Scotland and 5 or 6C in SE England it will still result in NE Scotland being a degree or two colder.

[SnowRules]

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/5/20101118/tuk-snow-warning-britain-set-for-winter-45dbed5.html

[AWD]

Hey all. New member here!

I'm not a forecaster, nor do I know much about forecasting, I just love extreme and lively weather.

From reading this forum topic, it doesn't sound like this winter, here in Bristol, will be anything like last winter. Had the best snowfall for as long as I can remember.

From what I gather, this winter, here In Bristol, is going to start dry and chilly, but not excessively cold. There will be milder interludes to the south west, which will stop temperatures dropping away to much, unlike more northern and eastern parts. Therefore, no significant snowfall is expected. When its cold, its going to be dry, and when its wet, temperatures will be just a little to high for snow.

Am I reading it correctly or can anyone get my hopes up for more snow?

Cheers

[Cheese Rice]

 

Welcome to NW.

Yes that sounds about right, but just because there maybe be milder interludes in the South West doesn't mean there won't be any significant snowfall. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the south west saw the highest snowfall totals in a single day, while NE areas seeing regular -moderate- top ups.  

Edited November 18, 2010 by cheeserice

[19jacobob93]

Hey all. New member here!

I'm not a forecaster, nor do I know much about forecasting, I just love extreme and lively weather.

From reading this forum topic, it doesn't sound like this winter, here in Bristol, will be anything like last winter. Had the best snowfall for as long as I can remember.

From what I gather, this winter, here In Bristol, is going to start dry and chilly, but not excessively cold. There will be milder interludes to the south west, which will stop temperatures dropping away to much, unlike more northern and eastern parts. Therefore, no significant snowfall is expected. When its cold, its going to be dry, and when its wet, temperatures will be just a little to high for snow.

Am I reading it correctly or can anyone get my hopes up for more snow?

Cheers

That makes 2 of us! Welcome to the forum!

And what you said about this winter sounds about right unless we get a fairly decent battleground cenario like feb 09 where the SW actually did better than anywhere!

[Aceman]

Hey all. New member here!

I'm not a forecaster, nor do I know much about forecasting, I just love extreme and lively weather.

From reading this forum topic, it doesn't sound like this winter, here in Bristol, will be anything like last winter. Had the best snowfall for as long as I can remember.

From what I gather, this winter, here In Bristol, is going to start dry and chilly, but not excessively cold. There will be milder interludes to the south west, which will stop temperatures dropping away to much, unlike more northern and eastern parts. Therefore, no significant snowfall is expected. When its cold, its going to be dry, and when its wet, temperatures will be just a little to high for snow.

Am I reading it correctly or can anyone get my hopes up for more snow?

Cheers

live close(ish), I agree we're always lucky if we do get anything but that just makes it more exciting when it doesl!!

love crispy fresh mornings myself with no cold wind, not being picky or anythning..........!

[19jacobob93]

Sst's around the UK are around 4c cooler than they were this time last year, infact the whole of europe, north america and the north atlantic are much cooler. I will post some charts tomorrow!

[Les Penniston]

Hey all. New member here!

I'm not a forecaster, nor do I know much about forecasting, I just love extreme and lively weather.

From reading this forum topic, it doesn't sound like this winter, here in Bristol, will be anything like last winter. Had the best snowfall for as long as I can remember.

From what I gather, this winter, here In Bristol, is going to start dry and chilly, but not excessively cold. There will be milder interludes to the south west, which will stop temperatures dropping away to much, unlike more northern and eastern parts. Therefore, no significant snowfall is expected. When its cold, its going to be dry, and when its wet, temperatures will be just a little to high for snow.

Am I reading it correctly or can anyone get my hopes up for more snow?

Cheers

Welcome to Netweather, my advice would be to sit back and enjoy, lots of info on here and you will get to know quite early when cold weather could be arriving.

Regards

Les

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Don't the models suggest for much of the winter we'll get the pattern below, with a Euro high bringing ACG (anti-cyclonic gloom) to Britain?

JB's latest forecast. In the chart above I'm not illustrating what he said but extrapolating from the model.

Edited to add: If the above is a repeating pattern for the winter then it might be better for our chances for snow if it is a Scandinavian high retrogressing SW rather than an Azores high moving NE.

Edited November 18, 2010 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[etched Chaos]

Don't the models suggest for much of the winter we'll get the pattern below, with a Euro high bringing ACG (anti-cyclonic gloom) to Britain?

JB's latest forecast. In the chart above I'm not illustrating what he said but extrapolating from the model.

Edited to add: If the above is a repeating pattern for the winter then it might be better for our chances for snow if it is a Scandinavian high retrogressing SW rather than an Azores high moving NE.

Watching that video Joe B was discounting models purely because they went against his LRF, surely forecasting isn't about cherrypicking models that coincide with your own forecast from a month ago.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Don't think it's cherry-picking because models aren't proof of anything.

JB only has one forecast and if the models all show different forecasts he's going to have to find some way to decide which of them is most accurate.

How's he to do that? He's going to pick the one closest to his own forecast. Otherwise, why draw up your own forecast and not just draw lots to decide which model is best?

JB's using the models to illustrate his forecast. His forecast is for a warm-up over UK. Average temperatures. He's not using the models to provide proof of the accuracy oft his forecast (if he is he shouldn't be) - models aren't proof of anything, they're just a more convoluted way of deriving a forecast.

[ZONE 51]

Myself i just can't see a warm up or average uk winter this year, maybe flirts to the sw england but most of britain its cold this winter.

Its most interesting and exciting as some very unusual goings on are occurring, i could talk technical and more scientific but i like to convert it to simple understanding, what i look at with charts, models, teleconnections, i understand what i see and how to use them, but im an amateur at lrf, and we all like to be right. im learning from the experts on here and GPs work is fasinating reading in the in-depth-tech-thread! i understand what i read in their, of course not everything its so complex but a joy to read the updates, especially when its what you want to hear! (cold)

Edited November 19, 2010 by nimbilus

[etched Chaos]

Don't think it's cherry-picking because models aren't proof of anything.

JB only has one forecast and if the models all show different forecasts he's going to have to find some way to decide which of them is most accurate.

How's he to do that? He's going to pick the one closest to his own forecast. Otherwise, why draw up your own forecast and not just draw lots to decide which model is best?

JB's using the models to illustrate his forecast. His forecast is for a warm-up over UK. Average temperatures. He's not using the models to provide proof of the accuracy oft his forecast (if he is he shouldn't be) - models aren't proof of anything, they're just a more convoluted way of deriving a forecast.

But surely if other models are going against your forecast a more prudent forecaster would maybe bite the bullet and re-evaluate their forecast instead of staunchly sticking by it and cherrypicking the model that agrees with it. I suppose I'm just annoyed he's predicting warm weather when all signs right now are stating that we're looking at another cold one, and that he's sticking by that by picking models that could be the exceptions this winter.

[ZONE 51]

Wont be long until we see how the lrf's start turning out, its going to be interesting not only because many top forecasters a going for a below average uk winter temps, but a few are going milder for uk.