Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

[Cheese Rice]

correct me if i'm wrong (and i may well be!) but dont the 850hpa temps also have to be -5 or below for snow? if that is the case then for this forecast period they are not, therefore snow is unlikely

Yes as a general rule -5 850's are needed for snow, however there have been many occasions where 850's are below -5 yet there has been rain/sleet, at the same time you can have 850's warmer than -5 and still see snow. For an easterly you would need  -5 to -10 850's for eastern coastal regions, for central areas (e.g. Leeds) you would need -5 850's.

Edited November 14, 2010 by 10123

[bobbydog]

thanks for the info guys, however, the latest run is showing the 528dam line to be well away from the UK now

[StewieEatWorld]

Not totally sure if I have this in the right thread but didn't want to start a whole new thread just for one wee question. Basically im wondering if anyone knows how much it snows here in Dundee? I know it's pretty low down and sort of close to the coast (to the river). Im just wondering because I last winter I lived in Dunfermline, a good bit above sea level and somewhat more inland than Dundee (ive moved to Dundee for Uni). Just basically wondering how these two locations will compare in terms of temps and snow days?

Thanks, Stu

[Ben_Cambs]

Not totally sure if I have this in the right thread but didn't want to start a whole new thread just for one wee question. Basically im wondering if anyone knows how much it snows here in Dundee? I know it's pretty low down and sort of close to the coast (to the river). Im just wondering because I last winter I lived in Dunfermline, a good bit above sea level and somewhat more inland than Dundee (ive moved to Dundee for Uni). Just basically wondering how these two locations will compare in terms of temps and snow days?

Thanks, Stu

Here is the Met Office data from the 1971-2000 average:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/regmapavge.html

You can toggle around with the different climate variables, months and different regions of the UK.

[StewieEatWorld]

Here is the Met Office data from the 1971-2000 average:

http://www.metoffice...regmapavge.html

You can toggle around with the different climate variables, months and different regions of the UK.

Ahhhh, thanks! According to that, the two locations seem to be pretty much the same. Im thinking maybe Dundee will have a slight advantage in terms of snow showers and general coldness due to being further north than Dunfermline.

Thanks again!

[Snowyowl9]

Glad someone can post charts like that on site,because I`m having difficulty since the new forum change.

Very little snow from that 2005 N-ly here but great charts.

[Zakos]

"The cold spell is most definitely still on, and though there are no guarantees, I can’t remember seeing so much consistency in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasting models. Run after run, day after day, they’re generating the same pattern of pressure rising massively to the north. The fine details are obviously changing from run to run, but the general pattern is one that is almost certain to bring a significant and possibly sustained cold spell to Britain / west Europe. Snow is on the way during the next few weeks"

Quote from TWO BUZZ. http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/latest.aspx

This is in agreement with my earlier post

[Cheese Rice]

We are already in a cold spell imo, temperatures all this week will be distinctly chilly, lingering fog leading to temperatures more akin to a January cold spell rather than Mid November. 

Not all that often you see temperature suppressed for this long in November. 

[snowlover2009]

is there a chance that temperatures could be lower than suggested tomorrow with the fog being slow to clear? Got to say I am finding it amazing how we havent had any real mild weather since october and the rest of the month looks to be continuing and getting significantly colder.

Edited November 14, 2010 by snowlover2009

[johnholmes]

is there a chance that temperatures could be lower than suggested tomorrow with the fog being slow to clear? Got to say I am finding it amazing how we havent had any real mild weather since october and the rest of the month looks to be continuing and getting significantly colder.

yes is the short answer

[Isolated Frost]

is there a chance that temperatures could be lower than suggested tomorrow with the fog being slow to clear? Got to say I am finding it amazing how we havent had any real mild weather since october and the rest of the month looks to be continuing and getting significantly colder.

Early November was extremely mild, with temperatures over 5C average.

But I agree, I think the lingering fog could prove a hazard, I'm forecast cloud until sunrise, but I'm hoping it'll be foggy, despite my trip in the car in the morning...

[Snowyowl9]

We are already in a cold spell imo, temperatures all this week will be distinctly chilly, lingering fog leading to temperatures more akin to a January cold spell rather than Mid November. 

Not all that often you see temperature suppressed for this long in November. 

Looks more mild to me this coming week,with SW-lys and unsettled.

Not as mild to recently though with 0c upper air overall,but SW-lys can be colder than you expect if upper air was -4/-5c as seen last 2 years.

But this week forget it,nothing special.

[Cheese Rice]

is there a chance that temperatures could be lower than suggested tomorrow with the fog being slow to clear? Got to say I am finding it amazing how we havent had any real mild weather since october and the rest of the month looks to be continuing and getting significantly colder.

If 17.c on 4th November isn't mild I don't know what is!

[Thundery wintry showers]

The first week of November 2010 was notably warm- not record-breaking but certainly well above the long-term normal. I think it certainly classifies as "real mild weather". That's why we're going to need either sustained below-average temperatures or a potent northerly or north-easterly blast somewhere along the line just to bring the November CET down to near average.

[Jason T]

Thought JOE B would have done a column by now,considering the event or events approaching. The other thing i have noticed is that a lot of comments on most sites is that of complete shock within the current output set ups especially for November.Words of of sustained,snow,long cold spell are readily being used.

[Marcus_surfer]

So snow for many northern areas likely before Christmas? What about further South?

[Zakos]

JOE B I think is reconsidering his winter forecast, as he bases his predictions partially with the CFS carts, and they showed The winter in the uk to be mild at the time JOE B was producing his forecast. They now show at least the first half of winter to be well below normal, and I think JOE B will pick up on this.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I cant wait for bftp.s and rogers forecast, hope it is better then last year

What the forecast accuracy or the actual winter? B)

BFTP

[conor123]

Glad someone can post charts like that on site,because I`m having difficulty since the new forum change.

Very little snow from that 2005 N-ly here but great charts.

That chart brought very little here to but Monday 28th was a very nice surprise when there were several hours of snow here, i can't remember

how much fell however.

[kippure]

What the forecast accuracy or the actual winter? B)

BFTP

lol both

Edited November 14, 2010 by kippure

[Isolated Frost]

In case of marginal snow events this winter, http://www.sciencebits.com/SnowProbCalc&calc=yes

[I remember Atlantic 252]

That chart brought very little here to but Monday 28th was a very nice surprise when there were several hours of snow here, i can't remember

how much fell however.

yeah same here no snow on 25th but a good covering on monday 28th, snowed nearly all day

[Cheese Rice]

Looks more mild to me this coming week,with SW-lys and unsettled.

Not as mild to recently though with 0c upper air overall,but SW-lys can be colder than you expect if upper air was -4/-5c as seen last 2 years.

But this week forget it,nothing special.

Mild relative to the last few days? Or generally mild? Either way I disagree with both. 

The southwesterly is a transient feature, that despite bringing in relatively milder uppers will not affect the temperatures. To suggest the coming week will be dominated by such pattern is anything but the case. 

[damianslaw]

Mild relative to the last few days? Or generally mild? Either way I disagree with both. 

The southwesterly is a transient feature, that despite bringing in relatively milder uppers will not affect the temperatures. To suggest the coming week will be dominated by such pattern is anything but the case. 

Agree the coming week will not be a 'mild week', indeed tomorrow and Tuesday will be cold for many with maxes ranging between 4-7 degrees, mid week average or slightly above average at best, thereafter back down to average and quickly becoming below average.

[ZONE 51]

Now its exciting, really enjoying this. its unusual whats being shown to come, what is amazing is how many experts are looking at the coming(potential) set up and going"WOW! this is unusual" were in new times now, something different is happening with the many interactions in the atmosphere and oceans, and we are to experience their effects this winter, unusual and exciting times ahead!

Edited November 15, 2010 by nimbilus