Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

[Tattooed Fox]

only time will tell im affraid! the only difference i think we will see this winter is that westerly winds will have less of a warming effect. were not going to enter a new ice age as some people have been suggesting, nor will we be seeing the coldest winter in 1,000 years as polish scientists have said because of this! but yes i find it hard to imagine a mild winter this year.

OH I see, it will only be speculation on all counts then. More than likely we will have a gradual decrease in the warmer temps over the years and we would probably see more inclement weather. Obviously we wont be seeing "the day after tomorrow" in real life. Lets hope the Atlantic Conveyor does not cease or that will be another scenario all together wont it.

[summer blizzard]

Personally, i think that people are reading too much into any easterly forecast at the moment because the fact is that if we get a northerly before the easterly then any snow will be marginal, if we just get a pressure build, there will be insuffcient cold air for anything other than drizzle away from high ground, provided that showers even get that far inland.

As for November snow in Queensbury, i never realised how high it was, i am pretty near but only had slightly sleety rain last night. I do recall that the odds of November snow in England are supposed to be 1 in 3, yet we had snow on the 18th November 2004, 20th November 2005, 1st November 2008 and 29th November 2009, so in these parts, it would be more suprising not to see snow.

Looking ahead to winter, anologues and model forecasts all indicate a weakening La Nina and QBO which in my opinion bodes well, because the more the QBO weakens, the more chance of a late winter SSW, on top of that, anologues do indicate a below average outcome this winter, though i will await the PDO and AMO data before i get giddy, my official forecast for winter will be released 10th December.

[Met4Cast]

December is looking pretty cold according to the CFS

[19jacobob93]

OH I see, it will only be speculation on all counts then. More than likely we will have a gradual decrease in the warmer temps over the years and we would probably see more inclement weather. Obviously we wont be seeing "the day after tomorrow" in real life. Lets hope the Atlantic Conveyor does not cease or that will be another scenario all together wont it.

agreed, even if it does shut down we wont see 'the day after tomorrow' just cooler winters. its unlikely to shut down completely anyway so i wouldnt worry too much!

[cheeky_monkey]

An easterly wind would come from the north sea, not the atlantic.

What i find amusing is that this is a Discussion Forum, and my comment was laid down to allow someone to explain how it could become cold enough from an easterly so early in the season, not to be jumped down the neck by trying to get some discussion going about the forecast the metoffice laid down. So john please enlighten us all with how we can possibly get cold enough at this time of year from an easterly to produce snow because us with "no real depth of knowledge about meteorology" would love to see how such circumstances could evolve.

Maybe you should read the historic weather section easterlies have produced snow showers and snow as early as the begining of November so it does and has happened

[johnholmes]

December is looking pretty cold according to the CFS

this is another output that varies if not day by day then week by week. I kept the one issued on, I think, 21 October, it showed January as cold now it has it above normal for the bulk of the UK. It also had cold as this issue, but pale rather than dark blue showing for much of the UK. So beware that you are not taken in by it showing what you want to see, be it cold or mild. Much the same with the CFS charts on Net Wx and the daily one.

They are fun to watch so long as you are not too disappointed if they do not turn out as you hoped they would!

[Met4Cast]

this is another output that varies if not day by day then week by week. I kept the one issued on, I think, 21 October, it showed January as cold now it has it above normal for the bulk of the UK. It also had cold as this issue, but pale rather than dark blue showing for much of the UK. So beware that you are not taken in by it showing what you want to see, be it cold or mild. Much the same with the CFS charts on Net Wx and the daily one.

They are fun to watch so long as you are not too disappointed if they do not turn out as you hoped they would!

Indeed.

[19jacobob93]

December is looking pretty cold according to the CFS

i wouldnt trust these if im honest! they change daily, even the november chart!

[Weather-history]

An easterly can be cold to very cold at this time of the year providing as with all easterlies during late autumn to spring that there is a deep cold airmass to be tapped. Its that simple. The argument that it will be insufficently cold is an incorrect assessment as you can get a cold Arctic airmass at this time of year.

It happened in early November 1980

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1980/Rrea00119801105.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1980/Rrea00219801105.gif

November 1993

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1993/Rrea00119931121.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1993/Rrea00219931121.gif

Early December 1995

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119951206.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00219951206.gif

Edited November 9, 2010 by Mr_Data

[cyclonic happiness]

There is no cold to tap into from an easterly atm, because there is no snow in the east atm to precipitate the cold, i'm sure it will change but we are still well down on snow in eastern siberia for the time of the year.

[Thundery wintry showers]

An easterly can be cold to very cold at this time of the year providing as with all easterlies during late autumn to spring that there is a deep cold airmass to be tapped. Its that simple. The argument that it will be insufficently cold is an incorrect assessment as you can get a cold Arctic airmass at this time of year.

Agreed. On extremely rare occasions it's even been known in October, e.g. late October 1950 saw localised snowfalls from an easterly:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1950/Rrea00119501027.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1950/Rrea00219501027.gif

and snow fell in parts of the near-Continent from this one in the second week of October 1975:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1975/Rrea00119751011.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1975/Rrea00219751011.gif

If you can get snow from northerlies in the UK at a given time of year, at the very least we should be able to get snow from an easterly or north-easterly in the aftermath of a northerly outbreak on the near-Continent.

[damianslaw]

An easterly can be cold to very cold at this time of the year providing as with all easterlies during late autumn to spring that there is a deep cold airmass to be tapped. Its that simple. The argument that it will be insufficently cold is an incorrect assessment as you can get a cold Arctic airmass at this time of year.

It happened in early November 1980

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1980/Rrea00119801105.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1980/Rrea00219801105.gif

November 1993

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1993/Rrea00119931121.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1993/Rrea00219931121.gif

Early December 1995

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119951206.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00219951206.gif

1980 event was very notable for how early in the season many places saw low level snow.

I remember the 1993 and 1995 events very well. The 1993 event was preceded by a cold northerly outbreak, whereas the 1995 event came on the back of a very mild southerly/south westerly airstream. The 1993 event was particularly cold and long lasting, a couple of ice days were recorded in many central northern parts and there was much snow in the east. In fact it beat the cold spell of christmas 93 and feb 94, unusual to see the coldest weather of the winter season so early.

The early dec 95 event was a short lived easterly but was a foretaste to a very blocked atlantic and subsequent cold later in the month.

The belief that an easterly this Nov would not be cold enough for snow is a false one. Any building of heights over Scandanavia/NW Russia our way would very quickly develop cold air both at the surface and in the upper levels. The extra heat from the North Sea would be conducive to shower build up, those temps would quickly drop.

[Jay Lad]

Met Office have updated their long range forecast and have basically concluded that we are headed for much colder spell of weather from around the 22nd onwards. Hopefully this will set the scene for the temps to fall into Dec. Sounds to me like their thinking high pressure will be situated to the north-west of the UK and it will drag bitter east winds across us - Here's hoping for a Dec like 1981 but that's a bit ambitious at this stage <_< I like to remain cautious about most things incase they don't turn out how I hope! as I really don't think this winter will be as cold/snowy as the last.

Don't get me wrong I don't think it will be a mild one but I reckon it'll be more of a boring average one with average snow and average temps but things hopefully might change. Although at my elevation of over 500 ft we do usually get a decent fall every

year wheras only 2 miles away where my family live in areas between 200-230 ft lower than me don't get anywhere near as much as me. Just shows how elevation can matter, although the general rule of thumb in the UK is the further north you go, the further east you go and the higher you go determines how cold/snowy it generally is.

[greybing]

Met Office have updated their long range forecast and have basically concluded that we are headed for much colder spell of weather from around the 22nd onwards. Hopefully this will set the scene for the temps to fall into Dec. Sounds to me like their thinking high pressure will be situated to the north-west of the UK and it will drag bitter east winds across us - Here's hoping for a Dec like 1981 but that's a bit ambitious at this stage <_< I like to remain cautious about most things incase they don't turn out how I hope! as I really don't think this winter will be as cold/snowy as the last.

Don't get me wrong I don't think it will be a mild one but I reckon it'll be more of a boring average one with average snow and average temps but things hopefully might change. Although at my elevation of over 500 ft we do usually get a decent fall every

year wheras only 2 miles away where my family live in areas between 200-230 ft lower than me don't get anywhere near as much as me. Just shows how elevation can matter, although the general rule of thumb in the UK is the further north you go, the further east you go and the higher you go determines how cold/snowy it generally is.

True what you say,I too live in manchester and there are huge differences in snowfall depending on how high an elevation you are,as I live quite low in salford this is frustrating, I long for the snowfall events that are commonplace on the snake pass and places such as that. In regard to winter I would love an epic ,cold ,snowy winter and my gut tells me a mild winter is unlikely but my brain says that I have no idea and listening ,isolating and giving voices to parts of the body that have no right weather predicting is an in precise art,[l.i.t.s.-,laugh inwardly then snigger].ok...im sorry about that

[ZONE 51]

Certainly its an interesting and exciting build up to december, the difference with these storms are their cold not mild, remember storms from the atlantic with temps up to something like 10c/50f?, but with these storms its really cold air, so in theory it wont take warm air across europe, not that it exactly affects winter, but the point is something is different, more than last year, and some record data recordings, and the solar low. all unusual goings on al at once within a few months.

Expect the Unexpected this winter.

Edited November 10, 2010 by nimbilus

[osmposm]

Maybe this is why you jumped down my throat at a comment that wasnt even critical...

Wintry showers consists of ... rain, sleet, hail and SNOW

Um, I don't know about anyone else, but I'm certainly not jumping down anyone's throat, relax - I'm just making friendly comments in a friendly conversation. To disagree with someone's view is permitted, surely?

And here's another friendly, non-jumping sort of comment (no capitals, either, which is usually considered shouting): As I understand it, wintry showers consist of sleet and/or soft hail and/or snow, the exact nature of it uncertain in advance, and probably mixed with rain - i.e. you don't have to have snow in the mix for it to be a "wintry shower", sleet/hail will do. Some places have had this in the last day or two. On an easterly wind - don't much care about its origin, it's been pretty chilly. The Met Office suggests there may be more of the same to come a little way ahead. Seems reasonable to me.

Edited November 10, 2010 by osmposm

[Cymro]

What's interesting to also note is the ground temperatures are generally lower this year than many years concluding with my own measurements. They seem to be on the cooler side I suspect this will have alot to do with the dryish spell we had in summer and the not os overly hot conditions all year round. This bodes well for snow cover, for example there was snow on the hill behind me monday morning the hill is only 530 odd meters wich is higher thna most areas but for snow to last in the temperatures we did quite early on is a good indication of ground temperatures.

[SP1986]

I don't think we can compare storm system at the moment to how they used to behave, mainly because we've only really had one this year up to now, and they have taken a more southerly track than usual, so you would expect that such a storm would contain lower temperatures in any era. To get a true scenario we need storms to track more northerly then we can deduce whether the net temperature has become cooler. In essence this cooling episode is almost completely synoptically driven in an internal sense.

The more southerly tracking nature of the lows has given rise to potentially very complex lows in which the cold sector is significantly cooler than the storms we used to get, however again this is down to the southerly tracking.

The next low will deliver +10C temperatures in it's wake and this low will be slightly more northerly tracking that the last one.

[Nick B]

I don't think we can compare storm system at the moment to how they used to behave, mainly because we've only really had one this year up to now, and they have taken a more southerly track than usual, so you would expect that such a storm would contain lower temperatures in any era. To get a true scenario we need storms to track more northerly then we can deduce whether the net temperature has become cooler. In essence this cooling episode is almost completely synoptically driven in an internal sense.

The more southerly tracking nature of the lows has given rise to potentially very complex lows in which the cold sector is significantly cooler than the storms we used to get, however again this is down to the southerly tracking.

The next low will deliver +10C temperatures in it's wake and this low will be slightly more northerly tracking that the last one.

But that's the point - you have just made the comparison yourself. The jet has been shifted further south on balance and this is affecting synoptics. In previous years (pre-2008), a storm such as this coming Thursday's would be travelling a more northern path still and dragging in yet warmer air from Biscay. I've certainly seen enough over the last 2 or 3 years now to accept that we're heading back into pre-80's synoptic patterns and, on the whole, when we get the storms, they won't necessarily deliver mild conditions, just average.

[SP1986]

But that's the point - you have just made the comparison yourself. The jet has been shifted further south on balance and this is affecting synoptics. In previous years (pre-2008), a storm such as this coming Thursday's would be travelling a more northern path still and dragging in yet warmer air from Biscay. I've certainly seen enough over the last 2 or 3 years now to accept that we're heading back into pre-80's synoptic patterns and, on the whole, when we get the storms, they won't necessarily deliver mild conditions, just average.

I do hear what you're saying it has got cooler over the past 2-3 year and no one can deny that, that is the recent pattern we find ourselves in, I'm more suggesting the net cooling effect which can only be seen when compared like for like, for example say we have in November 2007 a collection of storm systems with an average centre of low point entering the UK mainland at between 57-60 degrees N, and the average maximum 12:00 temperature was 11.3C across the CET zone, if say hypothetically in November 2012 we have a collection of storm systems again between 57-60 degrees N but this time the average maximum 12:00 temperature was 9.8C across the CET zone, that would suggest a net cooling, thus indicating a return perhaps to cooler patterns over a larger time scale.

[Zakos]

The CFS charts consistently show high pressure to the north and northwest of The Uk, and show Low pressure systems being displaced to the south, for December at least.

What does this mean for the Uk winter? See for yourself -

As described in the Winter snow setups thread, here-http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/20474-winter-snow-setups/, this "Omega Blocking Setup" has the greatest potential to bring very cold and snowy weather to the Uk for long periods of time.

Only time will tell....

[summer blizzard]

amo + qbo + ao

1959 weakening ao/weakening qbo/strengthening amo

ao + qbo

1992 strengthening ao/strengthening qbo

1959 weakening ao/weakening qbo

mei + qbo

1985 weakening La Nina/weakening qbo

1978 weakening La Nina/ weakening qbo

1966 strengthening La Nina/weakening qbo

1955 weakening La Nina/weakening qbo

amo + qbo

1959 strengthening amo/weakening qbo

1987 weakening amo/weakening qbo

2006 weakening amo/weakening qbo

1959 the strongest anologue at the moment with PDO data still to come.

[ZONE 51]

The CFS charts.

What does this mean for the Uk winter? See for yourself -

As described in the Winter snow setups thread, here-http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/20474-winter-snow-setups/, this "Omega Blocking Setup" has the greatest potential to bring very cold and snowy weather to the Uk for long periods of time.

Only time will tell....

This has been and is my prediction.

[Zakos]

This has been and is my prediction.

I apologize, I haven't really been following this thread, This is my prediction aswell, but as you predicted it first, You can take the credit if it happens to occur. Sorry.

[DAVID SNOW]

I apologize, I haven't really been following this thread, This is my prediction aswell, but as you predicted it first, You can take the credit if it happens to occur. Sorry.

If, as you say we are heading for an "Omega Block prediction" Then surely the last person to predict so,should take all the credit