Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

[damianslaw]

Wasn't 2005/06 quite a dry mild winter over much of Scotland? High pressure was centred further north which gave the south-east fairly cold weather while many parts of Scotland were often under a mild south-westerly flow on the high's northern flank, but with fronts displaced so far north that many parts saw little rain. Not exceptionally mild by any means though.

The winter quarter of 1988/89 ended up exceptionally dry and mild over most of England plus eastern Scotland, due to persistence of "Bartlett"/Euro Highs.

Yes winter 05/06 was notably dry for many slightly colder than normal for the SE and slightly milder in the NW. Predictions of similiar conditions this winter would suggest high pressure to be directly overhead for quite a bit of the winter - I'd be happy with a similiar winter to 05/06 which saw a cold snowy end to November a cold snowy christmas week and a cold snowy second half to Feb - but the main part of the winter was a damp squib with little snow and average conditions - indeed the winter was notable for being consistently slightly below normal with many days with maxes around 3-5 mark and nights hovering around zero but never anything particularly severe apart from later in the winter - incidentally March 06 was very wintry in the north. We were not far off a severe winter that year - the cold over Europe was more severe than last year particularly in January.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I remember January 2006 all too well- my long-range forecast issued at the beginning of the month had gone for a very cold north-easterly around the 20th with heavy snow showers for eastern areas, and for a long time it looked like it was going to come off. But at around T+96, the models backed away from it completely, and the high pressure coming out of Siberia into Scandinavia got shunted south by the northerly tracking jet instead of continuing its retrogression towards the British Isles. The same thing happened in late February 2007 (both my prediction of a cold snowy north-easterly in a forecast issued at the beginning of the month, and its narrow failure to transpire), although on that occasion the potential easterly didn't gain much support from the UKMO or ECMWF.

As a long-range forecaster those "neck on the line" calls from three weeks out that narrowly fail to transpire (especially when they involve types of weather that I get very excited over) are in many ways the most frustrating- you get credit for being right, but not for being close!

[johncoolj]

have a look at this very cool indeed

[camiscool]

I'm thinking it's going to be a cold one

[DeepSnow]

have a look at this very cool indeed

Im glad we don't get that here!!! Imagen the damage that would cause!!

[ZONE 51]

This La-Nina might become as strong as it was in 1955-56, this actually lowered the global temperature by 1 degree f. During september this year the S0I (southern ocillation index) reached a high of (+25). this is the highest september index since 1917 when it hit (+29.7)! That period of strong la-nina global temps dropped by 1.2degrees f ,between 1915-1917,

[ZONE 51]

The la-nina winters of 1955-56 and 1915-1916-17 periods were very cold and snowy, both periods had the coldest month as february.

The NAO(north atlantic oscillation) had an outstanding period of 12 Months (-)negative pattern/phase! The AMO (sea surface temps of the North Atlantic) now the most positive ever known(+)

The Solar Minimum being experienced influencing the unusual jet stream pattern,(stratosphere effects) which is likely to block our warm winds this winter as jet moves south, the stratospheric effects on the troposphere(below stratos)is where the jetstream runs

[ZONE 51]

The PDO(pacific decadal oscillation) is in the beginning of a cold phase, possibly lasting 30yrs. During 3 periods that an el-nino to la-nina transition occurred those winters were not to cold and not that snowy, during the 50s and 60s the periods of la-nina's lasting more than 1yr produced cold snowy winters at some point, we have just now developed a la-nina, is it to be from strong-moderate-weak, that would mean a spring la-nina next.

[ZONE 51]

Their has been the Iceland Volcanic eruption on our part of the world, but on the other side another going off, all these gases and solid particles go up into the Stratosphere, big eruptions inpact global climate, these are small compared to those that affect the global climate, all volcanic eruptions reduce the amount of Solar Radiation reaching the earths surface, to some percent/amount, this lowers the temperatures in the troposphere, this changes the Atmospheric circulation patterns, some decrease in the amount of sunlight reaching the ground.

[ZONE 51]

We are keeping a close watch on the Polar Vortex (PV) for the stratosphere warming chances.

Ive done much studying and all the posts are in my own words from what i know.

From my analysis of the factors-

1-jet stream is to continue south

2-atlantic block set up end november and december.

3-atlantic energy to ease away through november

4-Russia experiencing severe winter weather by december

5-High pressure position vital to draw in bitter cold easterlys end of december.

[ZONE 51]

Please feel free to correct me on anything! .

If your on the early learning curve the way to become were you want to be is, read, study, learn, listen to the experts on NW, ive learnt so much on here! i want to be better at what i enjoy, but it takes years, so enjoy while you learn, dont be afraid to post a forecast or your thoughts, no ones going to bite!

Get some books, go to college.

Edited November 2, 2010 by nimbilus

[Cymro]

This is interesting hadn't seen it before and puts a big no no on the doom and gloom that people were saying the Met had mild on their cards.

Following public research, the Met Office no longer issues long-range forecasts for the general public; instead we provide a monthly outlook on our website.

Despite this, you may have seen some reports in the media on Thursday, suggesting the Met Office has produced a forecast for the coming winter.

These media reports have based their interpretation for the coming winter on probability maps on our website. However, they have been selective about the information they have used and you should not take these interpretations as a guide to the coming winter. Instead we would recommend using our monthly outlook and short range forecasts.

This is very good from the Met it shows understanding on past events and that anything can happen. Well done them on this.

[blitzen]

Nice explanation of the AMO:

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/AMO_Important_in_Northern_Hemispheric_Anomalies.pdf

[CHOCOBLUE]

Such a shame paul the octopus cant give his prediction hmm B-)

[johncoolj]

This La-Nina might become as strong as it was in 1955-56, this actually lowered the global temperature by 1 degree f. During september this year the S0I (southern ocillation index) reached a high of (+25). this is the highest september index since 1917 when it hit (+29.7)! That period of strong la-nina global temps dropped by 1.2degrees f ,between 1915-1917,

good posts

hope your correct

[Rollo]

Nice explanation of the AMO:

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/AMO_Important_in_Northern_Hemispheric_Anomalies.pdf

Thanks for the link Blitzen but what does it mean in terms of projecting a forecast.

[johnholmes]

Thanks for the link Blitzen but what does it mean in terms of projecting a forecast.

its just another link in the jigsaw that goes into TRYING to predict 1 month or a season ahead

[blitzen]

Thanks for the link Blitzen but what does it mean in terms of projecting a forecast.

Hi Rollo. If I am correct in what I'm saying,when the AMO and the PDO are both in their cold state together, (the PDO has been negative for a couple of years now) We stand a better chance of some winters being cooler. John?

Edited November 2, 2010 by Blitzen

[johnholmes]

don't ask me mate-Stewart (GP) or chino are the ones to ask about that subject.

[ZONE 51]

good posts

hope your correct

SOI index history

-The SOI index- archives/history.

[ZONE 51]

It could be that la-nina phase is here to stay, and the delayed ocean movement effect of cold the waters. during some periods 50s/60s la-nina stayed for more than 2yrs+ with some snowy cold winters. of course last winter was el-nino, checking historic data its about the same amount of cold winters/mild winters with either event en/ln, its an interesting winter building this.

[BranMan]

This 'bad weather reminder' has been sent out to all DWP staff accross the UK. This normally happens when the weather starts to turn more wintry. It seems very early this year and all the staff are wondering why......normally this weather reminder gets sent out when wintry conditions are imminant.....what do they know ?

this is what was sent out

For cascade to

All Staff

Bad Weather Reminder

When bad weather has caused disruption you are expected to make every effort to report for duty at your normal place of work, this includes considering alternative transport options. This means using public transport where possible or even linking up with other staff who live near you. Colleagues who pass on a main transport route may also be able to support your journey to work.

Every effort should be made prior to the disruption to limit the impact on your normal travel arrangements. This could mean parking your car more appropriately or allowing extra time for your journey.

If no other transport is available people who live within 1 hour walking distance of their normal place of work or their nearest office (which could be any DWP office i.e. Pension Centre, JCP, DCS etc.), will have to report for duty as normal.

[ZONE 51]

Hope they have enough ski's then, maybe its some super computer we don't know about thats let them know something, or its my Email i sent them not to long ago 0: what weather are they preparing for?

[BranMan]

i think this time they may be on about the potential storm on Sunday into Monday. i thought at first it was issued mainly toawrds people who live in the North of the Uk but apparently this issue warning was for our region of South Wales. So the strongs winds I suppose may well could cause disruption to travel with fallen trees and flooding with heavy rainfall.

Anyway, all in all, still intersting that a Government dept has already been told of forthcoming weather problems so early into the winter.

[ZONE 51]

It is looking likely that december is a very cold month with snow showers. (: snow.

More chance of a snowy christmas period ,even EA/SE and yes London could see snow showers at mid to late december. over in Russia is a growing freeze, as it does, but this looks like a record potential winter -40? for them, imagine that weather here! it is possible for -15 or around that to drop in the the SE!