Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

[Isolated Frost]

Thanks GP - that's the first post of yours where I have understood every single word! I was slightly surprised that you didn't specify which particular weight of cigarette paper you mean... (all meant with respect, of course)

Haha! Same here, though every thing GP says, I try and find out what it means, until I give up.

[Guest]

I suppose it depends where you live but sometimes the coldest months aren't the snowiest months...I would gladly swap Jan 2010 for a month like Jan 1993. As would most in the north and west of Scotland.

[Gavin P]

Glenn

You need to look on. the solar activity thread and read up on the links there. There'll always be maxima and minima within the 11 year cycle but the Solar cycles vary in strength and length. The overall sunspot number this cycle is low, indeed darn low and cycle 25 forecast to be even lower. Cycles don't start this low and explode into action, it won't work that way.

BFTP

Presumably as these weak solar cycles continue over the next 22 years it'll just entrench the risk of northern blocking and thus the southerly tracking jet, which overall will have a net cooling effect for this part of the world through feedbacks, even as the rest of the world continues to warm? By the 2030's we may be looking back at the 90's and 00's a short "golden era" of mild winters and decent summers.

Edited October 27, 2010 by Gavin P

[The watcher]

Presumably as these weak solar cycles continue over the next 22 years it'll just entrench the risk of northern blocking and thus the southerly tracking jet, which overall will have a net cooling effect for this part of the world through feedbacks, even as the rest of the world continues to warm? By the 2030's we may be looking back at the 90's and 00's a short "golden era" of mild winters and decent summers.

I don't feel the Solar Cycles play such a major part in that form, but I could be mistaken.

[lutfishah]

Met Office going for another mild winter

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8090325/Met-Office-data-suggests-mild-winter-but-dont-forget-last-year.html

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Come on 9 out of 10 times the met office predict a mildish or mild winter so no surprise there! not sure how the East of England's going to have milder temps than the south west, well at least anomoly wise.

[Isolated Frost]

Met Office going for another mild winter

http://www.telegraph...-last-year.html

They've got more chance than PWS.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Met Office going for another mild winter

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8090325/Met-Office-data-suggests-mild-winter-but-dont-forget-last-year.html

A couple of things to highlight here.

But the official forecasters have said that this winter could be unusually mild and dry, with temperatures at least 2C more than last year’s big freeze in which snow and ice caused travel chaos across much of Britain

A spokesman for the Met Office said: “This is not an official forecast, it’s data that would form part of a longer term prediction.

“If you look at the whole picture across north west Europe, there’s a higher chance of a cold winter than a warm one.â€

Now take the first paragraph, temps upto 2c warmer than last year's big freeze. CET for winter 2009/10 Dec 3.1c, Jan 1.4c and Feb 2.8c. The actual running mean CET is Dec 5.1, Jan 4.2 and Feb 4.2. So temps of upto 2c more than last winter would bring an average winter at worst.

Last paragraph is very significant. Now taking on board I don't see that they are really predicting a mild winter. They also mention that no data from La Nina or NAO are taken into account so IMO.....headline grabbing journalism.

BFTP

Edited October 28, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Weather-history]

Looking beyond winter but do strong La Ninas favour cold or even wintry spells during the following spring?

1909-10 Apr 1910 CET: 7.3

1916-17 Mar 1917 CET: 3.2; April 1917: 5.4

1933-34 Mar: 4.8

1942-43 -

1949-50 Apr: 7.6

1955-56 Apr: 6.9

1970-71 Mar: 4.9

1973-74 -

1975-76 Mar: 4.8

1988-89 Apr: 6.6

[johnholmes]

Its very easy to 'read' into any forecast what we each want. It would be a good idea if the Met O when it gives a press release to a newspaper also put on its own site what the forecaster actually wrote or said.

Just a couple of points to note about actual data as opposed to what may have been said.

Met O winter 2010-2011 from their own site

This shows the % probs of temperature ranges at 2 metres

http://www.metoffice..._seas_prob.html

this might also be useful to explain some of the complexities

http://www.metoffice...ooks/user-guide

To me, assuming the supposed quotes are correct their ideas are not too different from what Stewart has suggested or Joe B. Colder in central Europe, here a touch below normal for the SE to a touch above normal for the NW. And for a generally drier winter than the average. Wonderman and his forecasts for dislocating snow etc can be discounted in terms of a winter long phenomena. That is not to say that short spells of cold and snow will not occur but Mr Powell loves headlines!

I'm a bit mystified why they have not yet managed to feed into their computer such items as ENSO, AO and NAO but there you are!

I forgot to add this gem from the DT

But the official forecasters have said that this winter could be unusually mild and dry, with temperatures at least 2C more than last year’s big freeze in which snow and ice caused travel chaos across much of Britain.

If that is unusually mild compared to the average I'll give up forecasting totally!

Why oh why does a so called quality newspaper print such utter rubbish ?

Edited October 28, 2010 by johnholmes

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looking closely at those Met Office maps I get the following signals from it:

• Over England and Wales, probably mild (approx. 50% chance mild, 30% average and 20% cold)
  
• Higher likelihood of +ve temperature anomalies the further north and west you go
  
• Above-average sea level pressure most likely to the E and NE, suggesting a greater chance of cold blasts coming from east rather than north, and more of a mean southerly, rather than westerly, flow over the British Isles, though confidence on this appears to be low. Fairly high confidence on below-average pressure near the pole, overall suggesting a +ve Arctic Oscillation, while slightly above-evens probability of -ve NAO.
  
• Below-average precipitation is more likely than above-average.
  
• 850hPa temperatures and more especially 500hPa height expected to be nearer average than the mean surface temperature.
  

So certainly a fair number of similarities with Stewart's forecast, although the Met Office outlook strikes me as a slightly milder version. Btw I think the Met Office have done the right thing in discontinuing the "official" seasonal forecasts but continuing to use those probability maps.

[thevalley]

Lets face it the norm for the UK is a mild temperate winter which does not mean there wont be cold and snow events but to have a winter like the last one would be extremely unlikely -probably a one in hundred chance of three reasonably/very cold winters in row. Typical autumn weather now and very similar to last year and I don't think anyone expected last winter to be so cold. Just one thing that is a bit puzzling how can anyone pin-point a slightly colder than average winter for the South East- far too localised- to get that I would assume a cold dry continental winter from the a very cold predicted Central Europe just brushing the UK and not having a enough time to pick up moisture from the North Sea..

[Glacier Point]

Looking closely at those Met Office maps I get the following signals from it:

• Over England and Wales, probably mild (approx. 50% chance mild, 30% average and 20% cold)
• Higher likelihood of +ve temperature anomalies the further north and west you go
• Above-average sea level pressure most likely to the E and NE, suggesting a greater chance of cold blasts coming from east rather than north, and more of a mean southerly, rather than westerly, flow over the British Isles, though confidence on this appears to be low. Fairly high confidence on below-average pressure near the pole, overall suggesting a +ve Arctic Oscillation, while slightly above-evens probability of -ve NAO.
• Below-average precipitation is more likely than above-average.
• 850hPa temperatures and more especially 500hPa height expected to be nearer average than the mean surface temperature.

So certainly a fair number of similarities with Stewart's forecast, although the Met Office outlook strikes me as a slightly milder version. Btw I think the Met Office have done the right thing in discontinuing the "official" seasonal forecasts but continuing to use those probability maps.

Indeed, I was quite struck yesterday when I looked at the the GPC outputs how close to average they were, relative to a possible warm bias. The other interesting point is that their 850 hPa temperature plots appear to suggest a -NAO signature..

From a range of model sources, there seems to be a consistent theme of drier than average and not particularly colder or warmer than average. One would hope having a clear cut ENSO signal should lead to this type of consistency amongst long range forecasts.

[Cheese Rice]

Btw I think the Met Office have done the right thing in discontinuing the "official" seasonal forecasts but continuing to use those probability maps.

I'm not too sure, as said before this model doesn't take into account numerous other factors (ENSO, AO and NAO). Without this input we are really just looking at raw data which can be interpreted widely, where-as with the extra human input we can get a clearer picture. You could -well- argue these probability maps are useless without all this -vital- information. Added by the fact the media prefer to take everything out of context, these probability maps will only hamper the Met Office's questionable reputation. 

"WINTER TO BE MILD PREDICTS MET OFFICE"

http://www.express.c...icts-Met-Office

Exactly why these Maps shouldn't be around. Met Office didn't predict this but seen as it is on there website then it is automatically a Meto prediction, not surprising really. If it wasn't for my basic knowledge of weather and Meto I would only assume this is Meto's forecast.  

Edit: Yes I do prefer these probability maps but opening them to the public is probably not the best of ideas. 

Edited October 28, 2010 by 10123

[bobbydog]

i dont know if its the newspapers contradicting each other or the MetO contradicting itself, but...

THE EXPRESS:

Helen Chivers, Met Office forecaster, insisted the temperature map takes into account the influence of climate factors such as El Nino and La Nina – five-yearly climatic patterns that affect the weather – but admits this is only a “start point†for a seasonal forecast. She said: “The map shows probabilities of temperatures in months ahead compared to average temperatures over a 30-year period

THE TELEGRAPH

However, the Met Office warned that the figure were only part of the data used to build predictions for December, January and February’s weather but do not include such influential factors as the El Nino-La Nina high-low pressure system in the Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic Oscillation, which partly governs the winds and storms which arrive in Britain from the west.

Well do they or dont they?????

[MR EXTREMES]

Its very easy to 'read' into any forecast what we each want. It would be a good idea if the Met O when it gives a press release to a newspaper also put on its own site what the forecaster actually wrote or said.

Just a couple of points to note about actual data as opposed to what may have been said.

Met O winter 2010-2011 from their own site

This shows the % probs of temperature ranges at 2 metres

http://www.metoffice..._seas_prob.html

this might also be useful to explain some of the complexities

http://www.metoffice...ooks/user-guide

To me, assuming the supposed quotes are correct their ideas are not too different from what Stewart has suggested or Joe B. Colder in central Europe, here a touch below normal for the SE to a touch above normal for the NW. And for a generally drier winter than the average. Wonderman and his forecasts for dislocating snow etc can be discounted in terms of a winter long phenomena. That is not to say that short spells of cold and snow will not occur but Mr Powell loves headlines!

I'm a bit mystified why they have not yet managed to feed into their computer such items as ENSO, AO and NAO but there you are!

I forgot to add this gem from the DT

But the official forecasters have said that this winter could be unusually mild and dry, with temperatures at least 2C more than last year’s big freeze in which snow and ice caused travel chaos across much of Britain.

If that is unusually mild compared to the average I'll give up forecasting totally!

Why oh why does a so called quality newspaper print such utter rubbish ?

cracking post john typical media twist.

[MR EXTREMES]

all i can say is id herd that cold winter in central and southern europe so if northern spain paris germany ect ect.

now if this turns out to be correct from my memory back in the 80s when the winter was cold to the south of us or se of us then snowstorms coming across the channel towards us was a good feature in them winters.

i might be wrong and was fairly young then but remembered looking at teletex to see how cold paris was although when snowstorms did happen from across the channel they never lasted that long.

but cold conditions from the s and se can happen.

Edited October 28, 2010 by badboy657

[johnholmes]

i dont know if its the newspapers contradicting each other or the MetO contradicting itself, but...

THE EXPRESS:

Helen Chivers, Met Office forecaster, insisted the temperature map takes into account the influence of climate factors such as El Nino and La Nina – five-yearly climatic patterns that affect the weather – but admits this is only a “start point†for a seasonal forecast. She said: “The map shows probabilities of temperatures in months ahead compared to average temperatures over a 30-year period

THE TELEGRAPH

However, the Met Office warned that the figure were only part of the data used to build predictions for December, January and February’s weather but do not include such influential factors as the El Nino-La Nina high-low pressure system in the Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic Oscillation, which partly governs the winds and storms which arrive in Britain from the west.

Well do they or dont they?????

one can only despair at the PR side of my ex employer!

[Glacier Point]

I think the difficulties here are differentiating between model guidance and statistical guidance.

[phil nw.]

one can only despair at the PR side of my ex employer!

My thoughts too John.

I know the press are notorious regarding explaining correctly what comes from the Met. O.however i feel sometimes they(Met.O) do shoot themselves in the foot with such apparently confusing info.

If they can`t clearly state the message,ie,cold,average,mild with clear figures and maps,taking all data in to account then they should remain silent.

Maybe just stick to shorter range forecasts out to say a month as they recently said they would do.

[lutfishah]

A couple of things to highlight here.

But the official forecasters have said that this winter could be unusually mild and dry, with temperatures at least 2C more than last year’s big freeze in which snow and ice caused travel chaos across much of Britain

A spokesman for the Met Office said: “This is not an official forecast, it’s data that would form part of a longer term prediction.

“If you look at the whole picture across north west Europe, there’s a higher chance of a cold winter than a warm one.â€

Now take the first paragraph, temps upto 2c warmer than last year's big freeze. CET for winter 2009/10 Dec 3.1c, Jan 1.4c and Feb 2.8c. The actual running mean CET is Dec 5.1, Jan 4.2 and Feb 4.2. So temps of upto 2c more than last winter would bring an average winter at worst.

Last paragraph is very significant. Now taking on board I don't see that they are really predicting a mild winter. They also mention that no data from La Nina or NAO are taken into account so IMO.....headline grabbing journalism.

BFTP

Totally agree with you....

[snowlover2009]

Ah, so the met office are predicting this winter to be unusually milder and dryer by 2 degress compared to last winter, yet that wouldn't exactly make it unusually warm for winter. Give me a break. If they cannot get this right, then what hope do they have with their forecasts. I am sure i saw on their website that this winter would have more potential to be colder than warmer in percentage terms.

Edited October 28, 2010 by snowlover2009

[damianslaw]

After the depth and length of cold last winter - and following on from the rather cold and often wintry winter the year before, I suspect many cold snow lovers me included won't be happy unless we see a winter equal to at least winter 08/09 in terms of cold and snow.

I will be confirming my thoughts at the end of November, however, I would be very surprised if this winter is as cold as last year, it would be quite unusual to see two very cold winters in a row. The background signals are very different to last year but equally unpredictable much like last year making it very difficult to call how this winter will pan out. It would appear there are a number of contrasting factors which will come together to produce either a notably cold winter or notably mild winter - I doubt it will be average. My hunch at this stage is still for a cold winter with snow coming from battleground situations - and if I'm honest I doubt this will change by the end of Nov, and I will not be swayed by what has happened during Nov - a very mild wet November means nothing for winter prospects you only need to look back at 1978 and last year to see this is the case indeed I would fear more a cold dry Nov a la 1988...

[johnholmes]

Ah, so the met office are predicting this winter to be unusually milder and dryer by 2 degress compared to last winter, yet that wouldn't exactly make it unusually warm for winter. Give me a break. If they cannot get this right, then what hope do they have with their forecasts. I am sure i saw on their website that this winter would have more potential to be colder than warmer in percentage terms.

DT so called quotes much of the above NOT what the Met O actually said as one only has to look at their quote of 2C higher than last winter. Even an idiot, unless a news reporter can see that!

[Guest]

Mild and wet I understand. Dry and cold I understand. I just don't get how the winter ahead can be forecast to be mild and dry? (relatively)

Surely the latter combo is more or less mutually exclusive? What weather pattern can give us milder and drier weather in winter?