Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

[Guest]

This 'bad weather reminder' has been sent out to all DWP staff accross the UK. This normally happens when the weather starts to turn more wintry. It seems very early this year and all the staff are wondering why......normally this weather reminder gets sent out when wintry conditions are imminant.....what do they know ?

this is what was sent out

For cascade to

All Staff

Bad Weather Reminder

When bad weather has caused disruption you are expected to make every effort to report for duty at your normal place of work, this includes considering alternative transport options. This means using public transport where possible or even linking up with other staff who live near you. Colleagues who pass on a main transport route may also be able to support your journey to work.

Every effort should be made prior to the disruption to limit the impact on your normal travel arrangements. This could mean parking your car more appropriately or allowing extra time for your journey.

If no other transport is available people who live within 1 hour walking distance of their normal place of work or their nearest office (which could be any DWP office i.e. Pension Centre, JCP, DCS etc.), will have to report for duty as normal.

What a patronising way to talk to staff!! It is also pretty dangerous to demand that staff venture outside if the wind was gusting to 90mph+ or there was a huge blizzard in progress

I'm becoming more and more glad I work in the private sector for a good company. All I would have to do would be to e-mail my boss to tell him I wasn't coming in due to the weather and I could work from home.

[BranMan]

Talking about a bad way to talk to staff.....i recall last winter one of the senior members in the dept taking a telephone call from a member of staff having trouble getting in as she lived 15 miles away in the snow covered valleys. I overheard the call clearly and was astonished to hear the senoir memeber of staff tell the caller that the snow had stopped outside our office and to make her way in ASAP, little did the caller know it was snowing heavy outside and I looked at the senior memeber with amazememnt and she looked back at me and placed her finger over her mouth as if to say ' shhh' ........now that's bad.

it's amazing what some people will say to make sure staff get in because the numbers needed making up because of business needs ! the Governement sucks

If only I could 'whistleblow' everything I know. I'd get locked up though because there'd be uproar

[Weather-history]

Last year, members were asked to make their predictions for the winter, I know because I made such a prediction and it wasn't particularly good especially the "not a snowy winter" comment.

What happened to that thread?

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

This 'bad weather reminder' has been sent out to all DWP staff accross the UK. This normally happens when the weather starts to turn more wintry. It seems very early this year and all the staff are wondering why......normally this weather reminder gets sent out when wintry conditions are imminant.....what do they know ?

this is what was sent out

For cascade to

All Staff

Bad Weather Reminder

When bad weather has caused disruption you are expected to make every effort to report for duty at your normal place of work, this includes considering alternative transport options. This means using public transport where possible or even linking up with other staff who live near you. Colleagues who pass on a main transport route may also be able to support your journey to work.

Every effort should be made prior to the disruption to limit the impact on your normal travel arrangements. This could mean parking your car more appropriately or allowing extra time for your journey.

If no other transport is available people who live within 1 hour walking distance of their normal place of work or their nearest office (which could be any DWP office i.e. Pension Centre, JCP, DCS etc.), will have to report for duty as normal.

I also work in the Civil Service, last year I made it in from a distance off 55miles on a really bad morning only to find that "senior management" would be working from home that day!!

Of course I would not have the option to work from home and if my office was 5 miles away then I would have to walk it, I wonder how that would stand up if I slipped and broke my leg

And people say we are not dedicated.

Anyway looking forward to the coming winter, in my area snow was on the ground for a good 4 weeks bit like the winters of my youth, interestingly the birds are realy stripping all the berry trees the last couple of days fattening up for another cold spell perhaps?

Edited November 7, 2010 by Pomeroysnow

[Iceberg]

SOI index history

-The SOI index- archives/history.

The only problem being that the last update on their is Sept and since then the SOI has been declining down to 17 currently.

Also the average of all of the predictions show that La Nina has probably peaked.

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html

[ZONE 51]

The only problem being that the last update on their is Sept and since then the SOI has been declining down to 17 currently.

Also the average of all of the predictions show that La Nina has probably peaked.

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html

Just pointing out september as how high it hit, it would decline what ever the record it got in sept , i would have thought?

[19jacobob93]

we have had our first wet snow in queensbury, west yorkshire today! only 3°c and its its almost miday! i keep a winter log every year and our first snow arrived on the 28th last year (although it did settle 2"), i understand the irrelevance the weather now has to do with the winter to come but its a full 20 days earlier this year! we also got dense fogs 5 weeks earlier than last year.

[johnholmes]

welcome to Net Wx, enjoy all there is on offer around the site, what height are you at please.

The snow seems to have got down, over the Peak District to about 900-1000ft amsl?

http://www.maccinfo.com/cat/

is one at about 1500ft I think and the other link on that site is for Flash, again 1500ft

Edited November 8, 2010 by johnholmes

[Timmytour]

19jacob

last year (or was it the year before) down here I came out of the train at the end of October without a coat to find it was hammering down with wet snow.

My kids thought it was highly amusing to see me when I arrived back at my home after the 15 minute walk.

[19jacobob93]

19jacob

last year (or was it the year before) down here I came out of the train at the end of October without a coat to find it was hammering down with wet snow.

My kids thought it was highly amusing to see me when I arrived back at my home after the 15 minute walk.

that was the year before i think, in 2008 here, it started snowing very lightly on the 28th of october and then we got heavier falls on the 1st of november. that winter started very early and it turned out to be very cold, hopefully the same will happen this year!

welcome to Net Wx, enjoy all there is on offer around the site, what height are you at please.

The snow seems to have got down, over the Peak District to about 900-1000ft amsl?

http://www.maccinfo.com/cat/

is one at about 1500ft I think and the other link on that site is for Flash, again 1500ft

my elevation is 1,072ft, hasnt settled though!

[19jacobob93]

according to NetWeather, for BD13 its now 1°c and the wet snow is expected to carry on all day and through the night, i hope it settles!

[AderynCoch]

Yay, snow on the Cat & Fiddle!

I notice though there's none at Flash, which is barely 50m lower (EDIT - there's a little bit on the grass, but not much).

Edited November 8, 2010 by AderynCoch

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd noted the 'wet snow' remnants on the windsceen on our school run this a.m. No visible flakes though. That stiff breeze isn't nice either (or my bloods getting thin!).

[AderynCoch]

Looks like it's snowing again at Flash, with cars passing through covered with the stuff:

Flash

Cat & Fiddle

(thanks to johnholmes for providing the original link)

Edited November 8, 2010 by AderynCoch

[MR EXTREMES]

SOI index history

-The SOI index- archives/history.

1987 impressive neg soi

so far this year not looking good

Edited November 8, 2010 by badboy657

[weather_logistics]

Hi there. I'm a newbie to NetWeather.

I happen to think that statistics are certainly the way forward for seasonal weather forecasting.

I've previously done some spread betting for weather events. I just weigh up the risk of losing against the odds. If I placed a bet on a 9:1 event, but my personal skill was 7:1, then over a sufficiently high number of events I would expect to gain 25%. On a single event I take the bet knowing that I have a 87.5% chance of losing, yet I am willing to take the risk. Not surprisingly I didn't make much of a loss, nor a substantial gain. This is because humans often under-estimate risk, whilst computers are unbiased. The process certainly taught me to trust statistics and how to estimate risk.

Gambling is highly addictive sport and the only sucussful gambler is one that doesn't have the motive or need to win.

It then begs the question. Is it possible to Gamble Aware? I recommend that you read the information on this website www.gambleaware.co.uk. This may teach forecasters to understand how to make predictions. I often hear forecasters say: we were due some cold winters, or cold weather. It was on the cards. Gamble Aware states that: "In games of chance there is no such thing as a win being due."

In the sense that somebody could guess, or predict the weather without a model or factual evidence: "It may seem that you, or someone you know, is luckier than other people". There is no evidence that anybody, over a significant number of events, is more lucky than anybody else.

It is an interesting point, that the Met Office appeared to have an unlucky time at predicting seasonal weather on numerous occasions. That may suggest that the model they used was not producing successful forecasts. Was the outcome statistically significant, or do they need to start developing different forecasting models for longer range predictions. Could somebody have achieved better results by chance?

Weather can also be an obsession or addiction. Human intervention in a seasonal forecast produces bias. I would hazzard a guess that Global warming believers tend to over-estimate seasonal temperatures. It is logical to believe that ski and snow-board lovers, prefer to believe that the winter will be colder and snowier. The mind is often warped from reality into what it wants to believe. I want it to be cold and snowy, because I love the snow. Mild winters are a threat to my snowman, to my skiing practise, to my idealised Christmas of log fires and crisp and even snow.

So whether you are a snow lover or cold hater, there has to be some medium in-between that enables unbiased thought.

My main seasonal forecasting objective at Weather Logistics UK is to try and push forward the idea that seasonal forecasting can be successful within certain bounds. These bounds can be focussed or refined as time progresses.

Statistics are rarely right on one occasion. Variability in weather is high enough on any time-scale to warrant averaging. Small shower clouds can't be predicted the day before, but weather forecasters can say that showers are more likely in one region than another. Models can inform the forecaster how likely the showers are (30%), but they can't tell us for certain that showers will not occur, nor that they will.

My model predicted that autumn will be 66% likely to be stormier than average, though I was 1/3 likely to be incorrect. My model predicted that temperatures would be +0.6C above 1961-1990 average during the autumn, they are currently about +0.3C above. Variability between the months is high and is mostly unpredictable and as such my temperature bounds show a large error range. One that I don't really think I can reduce.

Recent validation of my autumn forecast tells me that the regional bias in temperature is consistent (reporting a standard deviation of 0.1C), so that the distribution in temperatures appears to be close to those observed. The baseline temperature in the model is actually +0.3C above average, however the model did not predict this. I choose a base temperature to distribute based on the current global temperatures and La Nina - 0.6C was considered to be a good guess. The weather-types and trend in weather was realistic, based on the monthly migration of the jet-stream. Storminess is slightly above average, though not quite as high as expected. What I am happy with is that the results are mostly within my estimated errors. My future work will be trying to reduce these uncertainties in seasonal weather.

Weather Logistics UK uses a different forecasting system, based on an empirical temperature baseline and predictions of North Atlantic Blocking patterns. Temperature data was obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Modelling was undertaken in GNU Data Language.

See the validation of version 2 data at : http://www.weatherlogistics.com/Software_Outputsv2.pdf

[summer blizzard]

ao + qbo

1992 strengthening ao/strengthening qbo

1959 weakening ao/weakening qbo

mei + qbo

1985 weakening La Nina/weakening qbo

1978 weakening La Nina/ weakening qbo

1966 strengthening La Nina/weakening qbo

1955 weakening La Nina/weakening qbo

Still waiting on the AMO and QBO data however the anologues above indicate a significant chance of both La Nina and the QBO weakening through winter, though the AO is on a knifeedge as the polar atmshere has begun responding to the +QBO rather than La Nina.

likey range from anologues.

dec - 3.6 to 6.3

jan - 5.9 -0.4

feb - 5.4 -1.1

2 subzero februrarys

[19jacobob93]

i wouldnt worry about what the met office said in their forecast as some people have been! they arent calling for a milder than average winter if you read their forecast, what they are saying is that this winter will be up to 2°c warmer than last year, last year which was 2-3°c colder than average in places which means that a cold winter is still on the cards, and i dont think the MO dont have a clue themselves!

personally i think it will be almost impossible to have a mild winter this year. i know it probably wont be as cold as last winter but i feel the atlantic has lost its 'energy' already and we wont be seeing much in the way of westerlies in the coming months.

other factors that lead me to believe this are as folows:

solar activity i check this daily, and the current solar activity (sunspot number) is still very low, 34 today but take into account it can reach 250 during times of high activity.

there has been a huge increase in volcanic activity lately which i know wont effect the recent weather patterns, but may cause cooling into next year.

as for the current La Nina, i cant find any link between ENSO and the winters of europe temperature wise. (if someone can please let me know)

the north atlantic drift in particular is still in a terrible state (i have a chart from last year and its quite shocking if you compare it to this years, ill upload them both for you to see when i find it!)

cold weather has arrived much earlier than last year, although this doesnt have much of a link to the coming winter (mild november last year!), the last time winter arrived this early was 2008 which we all know was also very cold!

if anyone has any thoughts on this please share them

[Storm Animal]

Just found a little article on the snow today http://menmedia.co.uk/manchestereveningnews/news/s/1370665_first_snow_on_cat_and_fiddle_road

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This is a good point. I've been looking at my method and recently mentioned that the change would come and would be swift. Well hats off to ECM as it is IMO more right than wrong. I think the LP will track a little further SE than shown by the ECM but this approcahing storm will be felt most severely in SW UK and Ireland. Worst conditions say 6-8 Nov with gale force S to SE'ly winds for most and even storm force for SW approaches and rainfall will be very heavy indeed and could be of concern with localised flooding especially as there is heavy rain likely over the next few days. The LP will edge into France and a chilly NE'ly flow will develop 8-10 as HP to northern half UK and LP settles in France.

Nov overview I'll split into 3rds generally and I will highlight periods I think are of note.

1st 3rd Milder air sets in with a major depression/storm diving down from the NW to SE with wind damage and localised flooding especially in Ireland and South-West England/S Wales. As LP sinks into France a colder NE'ly flow follows with HP across N Ireland, Scotland into S Scandi. Snow showers could develop in Scotland.

2n 3rd: HP to our WSW and a general W to WNW airflow with LPs crossing east acros northern Scotland. Periods/spells of very wet weather as fronts cross the country and generally cool/cold conditions and colder in usual locations in Scotland etc with PM air being the dominant source. Towards the end of this period a quieter period as HP from the North extends SE following behind a LP and much chillier conditions with frost nights set in. 17-21 approx Atlantic held at bay.

last 3rd. The ridge trying to establish itself gets shoved out of the way as further spells of very windy and pretty wet conditions cros the UK mainly to the north. The ridge will try to rebuild around 25/6 but again will be pushed east out of the way as the Atlantic takes hold. temps cool to average. Now this will eventually lead to the ridge finally taking strangle hold in Dec as it will have a few goes through Nov but fail.

I think an average to cool month but the amount of rain and wind strength being the bits mostly remembered.

BFTP

Above is my Nov LRF posted in the model discussion page 1st Nov. It seems so far so good and I am watching closely how it progresses before finalising the winter LRF draft with RJS. Personally I want to see Nov continue with rPM air and Atlantic influence for the rest of the month as general theme....no big blocking epsisode as the solar and lunar signal shows none of that.

BFTP

Edited November 8, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[19jacobob93]

heres a picture comparing the 2009 to the 2010 state of the gulf stream. its clear from the picture that it has decreased in size and intensity quite worryingly. i think there will be a lag time involved with this. i think that once the warm waters that are already in the north atlantic have cooled, we will start to feel the effects as barely any warm water will be transported up towards western europe.

Edited November 8, 2010 by 19jacobob93

[damianslaw]

we have had our first wet snow in queensbury, west yorkshire today! only 3°c and its its almost miday! i keep a winter log every year and our first snow arrived on the 28th last year (although it did settle 2"), i understand the irrelevance the weather now has to do with the winter to come but its a full 20 days earlier this year! we also got dense fogs 5 weeks earlier than last year.

Queensbury is one of the highest inhabited parts of Yorkshire. I remember driving from Halifax on the 2nd Jan this year to Keighley, there was no snow in either of these places but plenty at Queensbury.

In the Lake District snow was reported close to Shap this morning at around 1,000ft, but generally it did not settle below 1,400ft, Kirkstone Pass just above 1,500 ft was closed for a short while. Had the precipitation been heavier and lasted longer I think we would have seen snow settle at 1,000ft. Alas it is always good seeing the first proper snow of the winter season on the fells, looks like plenty more snow for the higher tops this week , slight thaw on Thursday but colder thereafter again. Last year we had to wait until the last weekend of Nov before the fells saw any appreciable snow and only then did it fall above 2,000ft, indeed last year was a very late start to the snow season on the fells.. whereas 2008 was very early with heavy snow in late Oct at all levels, and more general heavy snow again at low levels in late Nov with sustained cover in early December. Now is about the norm for the first sustained snow cover of the season on the fells.

[19jacobob93]

Queensbury is one of the highest inhabited parts of Yorkshire. I remember driving from Halifax on the 2nd Jan this year to Keighley, there was no snow in either of these places but plenty at Queensbury.

In the Lake District snow was reported close to Shap this morning at around 1,000ft, but generally it did not settle below 1,400ft, Kirkstone Pass just above 1,500 ft was closed for a short while. Had the precipitation been heavier and lasted longer I think we would have seen snow settle at 1,000ft. Alas it is always good seeing the first proper snow of the winter season on the fells, looks like plenty more snow for the higher tops this week , slight thaw on Thursday but colder thereafter again. Last year we had to wait until the last weekend of Nov before the fells saw any appreciable snow and only then did it fall above 2,000ft, indeed last year was a very late start to the snow season on the fells.. whereas 2008 was very early with heavy snow in late Oct at all levels, and more general heavy snow again at low levels in late Nov with sustained cover in early December. Now is about the norm for the first sustained snow cover of the season on the fells.

i remember 2008 very well, it started to snow lightly on the 28th october, and then on the 1st november i remember being on a bus coming from huddersfield and it started to snow out of the blue! when i got back to queensbury there was a slight covering

queensbury does tend to fair very well when it comes to snow. theres been times when ive gone from brighouse (about 10-15 minutes away) without even a trace of snow and ive got back home to find a huge amount of snow! tonight it was 1°c in queensbury and it was sleeting and when i got to brighouse it was 4°c and raining, such a big difference in such a short distance!

Edited November 8, 2010 by 19jacobob93

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Interesting... Very interesting... 'stroking chin'

UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Nov 2010 to Wednesday 8 Dec 2010:

There is a trend for more settled, but colder weather to become established across much of the UK. Rainfall should be mostly below average, especially in the west. Easterly winds could bring wintry showers to some parts, particularly to the east coast. Temperatures are likely to be below average with an increased risk of frost overnight.

Strange considering temps over europe atm are projected nothing particularly low to bring a cold enough easterly at this stage;

Suppose there is plenty of time for these things to change, but easterlies never tend to bring much in the way of cold until January. Best chance of cold is from the north for this time of year, and anything form the east is unlikely to be cold enough for snow.

SNOW-MAN2006

(the above chart is only posted to reference that euro/russia is not particularly cold at present and not to represent possible temperatures in two weeks time)

[19jacobob93]

Interesting... Very interesting... 'stroking chin'

UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Nov 2010 to Wednesday 8 Dec 2010:

There is a trend for more settled, but colder weather to become established across much of the UK. Rainfall should be mostly below average, especially in the west. Easterly winds could bring wintry showers to some parts, particularly to the east coast. Temperatures are likely to be below average with an increased risk of frost overnight.

Strange considering temps over europe atm are projected nothing particularly low to bring a cold enough easterly at this stage;

Suppose there is plenty of time for these things to change, but easterlies never tend to bring much in the way of cold until January. Best chance of cold is from the north for this time of year, and anything form the east is unlikely to be cold enough for snow.

SNOW-MAN2006

(the above chart is only posted to reference that euro/russia is not particularly cold at present and not to represent possible temperatures in two weeks time)

i have a few of these charts from last year and the temperatures of the atlantic are already much colder than they were this time last year.