Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Sounds interesting but for me living here has to be a perfect hit, If lows track too far south, ill be too far north for the precip (snow), track too far north then I have a day like monday just gone

not much margin for error

[Zakos]

Sounds interesting but for me living here has to be a perfect hit, If lows track too far south, ill be too far north for the precip (snow), track too far north then I have a day like monday just gone

not much margin for error

"The main setup for prolonged cold and snowy weather arises when high pressure is centred around Greenland, but has a tendency to ridge eastwards over to Scandinavia at times. When the high extends over to Scandinavia we end up with easterlies, while when the high retreats back to Greenland, pressure falls over Scandinavia and we end up with northerlies. This way, snowfalls occur via both "northerly" and "easterly" snow setups, and there is always a chance of Atlantic systems pushing against the northern high pressure and stalling, bringing big snowfalls at the frontal zone.

Snowfalls occur generally across the country in this setup, although sheltered parts of western Scotland and north-west England may see rather less snow than most other parts of the country."

This quote from http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/20474-winter-snow-setups/ shows that snow is very widespread during these conditions

[bluearmy]

december looks the best bet for proper (upper) cold. as per GP's predictions for a typical Nina response, the block drifts over us for jan and feb. i guess it depends whether it trends n/s/w/e in its variance to the mean as to whether we stay cold or go milder.

[Zakos]

If, as you say we are heading for an "Omega Block prediction" Then surely the last person to predict so,should take all the credit

Possibly, but the person who makes the prediction first typically gets the credit :/

[DAVID SNOW]

Possibly, but the person who makes the prediction first typically gets the credit :/

Its all Greek to me

[19jacobob93]

Met Office have updated their long range forecast and have basically concluded that we are headed for much colder spell of weather from around the 22nd onwards. Hopefully this will set the scene for the temps to fall into Dec. Sounds to me like their thinking high pressure will be situated to the north-west of the UK and it will drag bitter east winds across us - Here's hoping for a Dec like 1981 but that's a bit ambitious at this stage I like to remain cautious about most things incase they don't turn out how I hope! as I really don't think this winter will be as cold/snowy as the last.

Don't get me wrong I don't think it will be a mild one but I reckon it'll be more of a boring average one with average snow and average temps but things hopefully might change. Although at my elevation of over 500 ft we do usually get a decent fall every

year wheras only 2 miles away where my family live in areas between 200-230 ft lower than me don't get anywhere near as much as me. Just shows how elevation can matter, although the general rule of thumb in the UK is the further north you go, the further east you go and the higher you go determines how cold/snowy it generally is.

elevation does have the biggest impact, living at 1072 ft asl theres always snow throughout winter whereas areas barely a mile away they hardly get anything!

[Jay Lad]

elevation does have the biggest impact, living at 1072 ft asl theres always snow throughout winter whereas areas barely a mile away they hardly get anything!

1072 ft - you might aswell be Everest base camp at that height :lol: - according to the Met Office land in the UK that is at or above 150m/492 ft is classed as high ground, so basically where you live you have passed that twice over!

[Richard Lake]

Morning,

Usually I would be concerned about snowfall given my location, but after looking at the SSTs today I find myself quietly confident. They seem to me at least to be slightly below average this year which bodes well as last year was a bit touch and go at times even though we did have a least a week of snow on the ground anyway - guess can't be too greed.

Fingers crossed it keeps on falling.

[ZONE 51]

I apologize, I haven't really been following this thread, This is my prediction aswell, but as you predicted it first, You can take the credit if it happens to occur. Sorry.

No need to apologize for that, you might have thought this set up would happen long before

you posted the prediction, your thoughts are same as mine on this winter going by that post. (: I expect ea/se to get the ne then easterly with north sea building features for big snow shrs. and the Russian freezer door opening for the UK! december low precipitation , but snow showers and harsh frosts.

Edited November 11, 2010 by nimbilus

[Zakos]

No need to apologize for that, you might have thought this set up would happen long before

you posted the prediction, your thoughts are same as mine on this winter going by that post. (: I expect ea/se to get the ne then easterly with north sea building features for big snow shrs. and the Russian freezer door opening for the UK! december low precipitation , but snow showers and harsh frosts.

Thanyou! And yes this is also what I believe will happen. Im not too sure on what will happen after decmember though, It could become even colder and snowier, but theres a possibility it will become very dry and mild

.

[19jacobob93]

1072 ft - you might aswell be Everest base camp at that height :lol: - according to the Met Office land in the UK that is at or above 150m/492 ft is classed as high ground, so basically where you live you have passed that twice over!

haha i know im not even the highest point in my area! the top of my road is 1335 ft! i must admit, its fantastic in winter!

[mcweather]

Met office update brings the mention of easterlies into the latter part of the 6-15 day forecast as well as north easterlies and possible snow showers in the monthly outlook.

Edited November 11, 2010 by mcweather

[stewfox]

haha i know im not even the highest point in my area! the top of my road is 1335 ft! i must admit, its fantastic in winter!

A true story with me , when me and my ex wife were looking for houses within 10 miles of High Wycombe.

The first thing I would do when a house came in via the estate agent is look how high it is. Ie take the post code and look it up on a uk Map.

I remember once we saw a property at the top of the Ridgeway about 700ft, it was heavy rain day like today. My ex wife hated it but I loved the location !! Wonder why she is an ex ??

My prediction so far written in mid October has been spot on although if we don’t get a northerly soon it might go off kilter

Edited November 11, 2010 by stewfox

[jethro]

The first thing I would do when a house came in via the estate agent is look how high it is. Ie take the post code and look it up on a uk Map.

I'm soooo glad it's not just me, every house detail gets checked on streetmap.co.uk; it's only just above 600ft here but it's pretty much the highest point I could find without moving the kids to different schools. Heading back to the Cotswolds in the next year or so, aiming for the high wolds, should be quite a bit higher than here

[arcticadventurer]

My guess is that December will start off mild and changeable for the first week and then turn into a very cold month .. Overall the biggest risk to having substantial snowfall is from Christmas onwards. January will be a very cold month with mild interludes short lived and February will be a mixed month (Based on a Strong -NAO if that occurs)

Edited November 11, 2010 by arcticadventurer

[Zakos]

The current GFS Run is very interesting for HGT 500-1000 From 216 hours onwards. -http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

It shows 4 separate wintry blasts, 2 from the north and 2 from the north east, with the Atlantic lows being completely blocked.

Too far off for any real confidence, but it could bring bring temperatures far below normal and big snowfall totals.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Possibly, but the person who makes the prediction first typically gets the credit :/

The devil is in the detail. Now GP has set out his stall and with distinct synoptic setup, that is what is needed to call a correct LRF IMO. Not just cold, average or mild but the synoptic setup. That then confirms and clarifies the reasoning for a winter call of whatever temp anomaly. It is apparent that many are calling for a COLD DECEMBER.

BFTP

My guess is that December will start off mild and changeable for the first week and then turn into a very cold month .. Overall the biggest risk to having substantial snowfall is from Christmas onwards. January will be a very cold month with mild interludes short lived and February will be a mixed month (Based on a Strong -NAO if that occurs)

Why will there be a strong -ve NAO?

BFTP

[Cal]

The devil is in the detail. Now GP has set out his stall and with distinct synoptic setup, that is what is needed to call a correct LRF IMO. Not just cold, average or mild but the synoptic setup. That then confirms and clarifies the reasoning for a winter call of whatever temp anomaly. It is apparent that many are calling for a COLD DECEMBER.

BFTP

Why will there be a strong -ve NAO?

BFTP

When you releasing yours and Rogers?

[19jacobob93]

A true story with me , when me and my ex wife were looking for houses within 10 miles of High Wycombe.

The first thing I would do when a house came in via the estate agent is look how high it is. Ie take the post code and look it up on a uk Map.

I remember once we saw a property at the top of the Ridgeway about 700ft, it was heavy rain day like today. My ex wife hated it but I loved the location !! Wonder why she is an ex ??

My prediction so far written in mid October has been spot on although if we don’t get a northerly soon it might go off kilter

No way! I thought i was the only person to have ever done that!! I live with my nan as my parents house gets a little heptic with all the siblings! Anyway, my nan was looking for a new house and i looked all over the pennines and checked the elevation of each house on google earth! So basically i forced her to buy this one, i said it was because of the view! any way this winter was the first winter at that house and i must say, it was brilliant! My profile pic was taken over the back of her garden, it was quite deep!

[Partholon]

Here is how i think this winter will be:

After a cold December, January and February will sadly be mild overall, because there will be no major stratospheric warming event to allow a blocking high to influence our weather again. So make the most of the blocking high in December, because once it declines the rest of the winter will be crap if you're a snow addict.

Edited November 11, 2010 by Partholon

[damianslaw]

Here is how i think this winter will be:

After a cold December, January and February will sadly be mild overall, because there will be no major stratospheric warming event to allow a blocking high to influence our weather again. So make the most of the blocking high in December, because once it declines the rest of the winter will be crap if you're a snow addict.

Mmm not sure your logic adds up here. High pressure doesn't need a stratospheric warming event to develop. Indeed many seem to be latching onto stratospheric warming as the key factor for a cold blocked set up.. probably because of what happened in late Jan 09. It can aid development of strong heights in favourable positions for sustained cold, but other factors can work against it, look at how Feb 09 eventually turned out..

[Zakos]

Mmm not sure your logic adds up here. High pressure doesn't need a stratospheric warming event to develop. Indeed many seem to be latching onto stratospheric warming as the key factor for a cold blocked set up.. probably because of what happened in late Jan 09. It can aid development of strong heights in favourable positions for sustained cold, but other factors can work against it, look at how Feb 09 eventually turned out..

Agreed. January, and especially February, are too far off to provide any real confidence on the outcome.

This, in my opinion, is shown by the CFS charts. If they keep changing between mild and cold with no real consistency, it means its basically too far off to call.

However, the charts are now consistently showing December to be well below normal, indicating high confidence in the forecast.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Who wants to see an early draft of RJS and BFTP winter LRF?

LRF will be posted by 20th.

BFTP

Edited November 11, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Who wants to see an early draft of RJS and BFTP winter LRF?

BFTP

I would

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I would

I'll send it to you the day before final draft. Heads up...colder than GP as a v cold end.

BFTP