Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

[spindrift1980]

Although the snow cover is still pretty superficial and vulnerable to being stripped away by milder weather, the Scottish ski centres are all looking pretty nicely covered at the moment (Glenshee webcam image attached)...will be interesting to see if the season fulfills its early promise.

[johnholmes]

Interesting... Very interesting... 'stroking chin'

UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Nov 2010 to Wednesday 8 Dec 2010:

There is a trend for more settled, but colder weather to become established across much of the UK. Rainfall should be mostly below average, especially in the west. Easterly winds could bring wintry showers to some parts, particularly to the east coast. Temperatures are likely to be below average with an increased risk of frost overnight.

Strange considering temps over europe atm are projected nothing particularly low to bring a cold enough easterly at this stage;

Suppose there is plenty of time for these things to change, but easterlies never tend to bring much in the way of cold until January. Best chance of cold is from the north for this time of year, and anything form the east is unlikely to be cold enough for snow.

SNOW-MAN2006

(the above chart is only posted to reference that euro/russia is not particularly cold at present and not to represent possible temperatures in two weeks time)

forgive this post Snow-Man and admin/mods but it has to be said.

How those with almost no real depth of knowledge about meteorology feel able to make such comments following an output from a world leader in meteorology, all its aspects, whatever many may think regarding their long term forecasting, I find really quite amusing.

Do you think they are not aware of what the temperatures over Europe and Scandinavia are now, or what they will be for the period of the forecast?

Some of you really do amaze me.

Edited November 9, 2010 by johnholmes

[Met4Cast]

forgive this post Snow-Man and admin/mods but it has to be said.

How those with almost no real depth of knowledge about meteorology feel able to make such comments following an output from a world leader in meteorology, all its aspects, whatever many may think regarding their long term forecasting, I find really quite amusing.

Do you think they are not aware of what the temperatures over Europe and Scandinavia are now, or what they will be for the period of the forecast?

Some of you really do amaze me.

I think he was stating that because Europe isn't looking particularly cold, it's hard to see how Easterly winds will bring wintry showers to Eastern coastal areas like the Metoffice are suggesting? Hes perfectly right IMO and well within his right to voice an opinion.

[Rollo]

Just out of interest we have today had both a sleet shower and a hail shower with the temperature around 4c-the precipitation was heavy at the time.

[blitzen]

Just out of interest we have today had both a sleet shower and a hail shower with the temperature around 4c-the precipitation was heavy at the time.

Hi Rollo. Pretty much the same here but all hail showers. Not too sure about this next system however. I think the whole thing looks as if it may track just a wee bit further south and take the strongest of the winds with it! Completely missed out on the last one. Looks as if central's weather dome is kicking in already! Still I may be wrong (hopefully) Would be nice to get something exciting as it has been ages now.

[Birkhill saints]

<br />Hi Rollo.   Pretty much the same here but all hail showers.   Not too sure about this next system however.   I think the whole thing looks as if it may track just a wee bit further south and take the strongest of the winds with it!   Completely missed out on the last one.  Looks as if central's weather dome is kicking in already!   Still I may be wrong (hopefully)  Would be nice to get something exciting as it has been ages now.<br />

<br /><br /><br />

Had a breif Rain/sleet shower about 13:30 that turned to very wet snow for all of 5 mins.

Clear and cold now.

This november reminds me of this month in the 80s.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

i have a few of these charts from last year and the temperatures of the atlantic are already much colder than they were this time last year.

An easterly wind would come from the north sea, not the atlantic.

Temperatures in the north sea are above average same too for much of the north atlantic.

forgive this post Snow-Man and admin/mods but it has to be said.

How those with almost no real depth of knowledge about meteorology feel able to make such comments following an output from a world leader in meteorology, all its aspects, whatever many may think regarding their long term forecasting, I find really quite amusing.

Do you think they are not aware of what the temperatures over Europe and Scandinavia are now, or what they will be for the period of the forecast?

Some of you really do amaze me.

John whilst i retain alot of respect for the Metoffice i for one think it is strange that they are willing to predict an easterly in 15 + days time with enough potency to bring snow at this time of year. Europe and Russia is simply not cold enough for this to be plausible at this time of year surely. My comment was merley an observation more than a critism in all fairness. What i find amusing is that this is a Discussion Forum, and my comment was laid down to allow someone to explain how it could become cold enough from an easterly so early in the season, not to be jumped down the neck by trying to get some discussion going about the forecast the metoffice laid down. So john please enlighten us all with how we can possibly get cold enough at this time of year from an easterly to produce snow because us with "no real depth of knowledge about meteorology" would love to see how such circumstances could evolve.

I think he was stating that because Europe isn't looking particularly cold, it's hard to see how Easterly winds will bring wintry showers to Eastern coastal areas like the Metoffice are suggesting? Hes perfectly right IMO and well within his right to voice an opinion.

This was exactly what my comment was meant to portray, it was not an attack on the metoffice, just simply an observation.

Regards,

SNOW-MAN2006

[johnholmes]

best you ask the Met O and see what their reason is then

I will come back with my own view on this shortly

Edited November 9, 2010 by johnholmes

[Alex95]

Another heavy wintry shower in Newcastle, and its gone very dark. More sleet and hail than rain this time

[SNOW-MAN2006]

best you ask the Met O and see what their reason is then

I will come back with my own view on this shortly

I look forward to your view john, but your the one who made the fuss about my post so i dont think i should bother asking the metoffice, if everyone who commented on a model output or a forecast where to ask the GFS/ECM/METO about there forecast they would be inendated with questions. My comment was purely for educational purposes about how an easterly can produce snow at this time of year.

Regards,

SM06

[johnholmes]

To answer more fully as I have no intention of trying to stifle constructive discussion on the forum.

Yes I am a retired senior forecaster from the Met O but do not shirk from criticising them when I feel its justified.

Their actual forecast out to 8 December is this

There is a trend for more settled, but colder weather to become established across much of the UK. Rainfall should be mostly below average, especially in the west. Easterly winds could bring wintry showers to some parts, particularly to the east coast. Temperatures are likely to be below average with an increased risk of frost overnight

They do not say snow, the dreaded word on here, wintry= a mix of rain, sleet, wintry hail and snow. Yes the use the phrase easterly winds. Does that mean gradient or actual surface direction? I have no idea which.

How cold is it ON AVERAGE by the end of the first week in December over Scandinavia and Russia, well western Russia, shall we take Moscow data as an indicator for that region?

Oslo, Stockholm for Scandinavia.

I’ll go and look them up

Moscow and this site, the first brought up by Google

http://www.moscow.wo...ow_weather.html

Moscow weather in December -4°C / 25°F -9°C / 16°F

Stockholm

Using the same world-guides gave

Stockholm weather in December 0°C / 32°F -2°C / 28°F

Oslo, again using the same source for continuity, not sure of its accuracy?

Oslo weather in December 0°C / 32°F -4°C / 25°F

And another check this time for Berlin

Berlin weather in December 3°C / 37°F -1°C / 30°F

The average temperature over the North Sea in early December

Can’t find it quickly but I would guess somewhere between 7 and 9C

Is the above sufficient, given the necessary upper air factors to fit the Met O idea of ‘easterly winds’?

I think the answer has to be yes, quite easily, for ‘wintry’ precipitation and quite possibly for sleet and snow showers IF the air is cold enough. Remember in my Guide on trying to forecast snow there are about 10 variables!

Hope you feel Snow-Man and others that I have made a constructive reply.

jh

ps

maybe Mr D or someone could give us any examples they know of with wintry precipitation in such a flow at the end of November/early December?

Edited November 9, 2010 by johnholmes

[osmposm]

John whilst i retain alot of respect for the Metoffice i for one think it is strange that they are willing to predict an easterly in 15 + days time with enough potency to bring snow at this time of year. Europe and Russia is simply not cold enough for this to be plausible at this time of year surely....

But I think they said "wintry showers", which is a very different kettle of fish to "snow" - and perfectly likely, surely, even with things not that cold to the east?

EDIT: Ah, John, I see you've beaten me to it!

Edited November 9, 2010 by osmposm

[chionomaniac]

But I think they said "wintry showers", which is a very different kettle of fish to "snow" - and perfectly likely, surely, even with things not that cold to the east?

EDIT: Ah, John, I see you've beaten me to it!

Haven't areas been having a wintry mix in an easterly flow today? So sm2006 look out of the window!!

[Met4Cast]

Haven't areas been having a wintry mix in an easterly flow today? So sm2006 look out of the window!!

Yes, but cold air wasn't sourced from the East, it had been dragged down with quite an intense area of low pressure. That's very different to winds coming in from the East and bringing wintry showers across Eastern areas, isn't it? I don't see anyone criticizing the Metoffice here, but rather wondering and discussing a forecast they issued for today. This is after all a discussion thread, why can't people voice opinions on this forum without others jumping down their necks? It's ridiculous.

Yes, I guess wintry showers would be possible in an Easterly flow later this month and into early December, but I think even the more experianced forecasters realise it'd usually take something special to get wintry showers to lower ground from an Easterly before the middle of December/Early January.

[chionomaniac]

Yes, but cold air wasn't sourced from the East, it had been dragged down with quite an intense area of low pressure. That's very different to winds coming in from the East and bringing wintry showers across Eastern areas, isn't it? I don't see anyone criticizing the Metoffice here, but rather wondering and discussing a forecast they issued for today. This is after all a discussion thread, why can't people voice opinions on this forum without others jumping down their necks? It's ridiculous.

Yes, I guess wintry showers would be possible in an Easterly flow later this month and into early December, but I think even the more experianced forecasters realise it'd usually take something special to get wintry showers to lower ground from an Easterly before the middle of December/Early January.

At no point am I aware that the met office have suggested where the air is sourced. When voicing opinions about the met office it is important to be factually correct when quoting them otherwise we end up in this kind of discussion.

My comment was tongue in cheek anyway!

[bobbydog]

its too cold to snow

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Yes I am a retired senior forecaster from the Met O but do not shirk from criticising them when I feel its justified.

Maybe this is why you jumped down my throat at a comment that wasnt even critical...

But I think they said "wintry showers", which is a very different kettle of fish to "snow" - and perfectly likely, surely, even with things not that cold to the east?

EDIT: Ah, John, I see you've beaten me to it!

Wintry showers consists of ... rain, sleet, hail and SNOW

Haven't areas been having a wintry mix in an easterly flow today? So sm2006 look out of the window!!

Yes people have seen a wintry mix, but is it an easterly FLOW direct from russia or a wind from the east... two different things. And i am looking out the window, horrible rain and wind.

Whilst the meto didnt say they expected a FLOW from the east this is what i presummed when commenting on it, however if its an easterly wind then they should say where it is sourced instead. I.E. the north.

I cant believe people have kicked up a fuss over my comment however it wasnt a critic as ive said a million times and more a question of how is it possible at this time of year... and the before the sarcastic commments come flying back it is possible if the air is sourced from the arctic or if we type it in google like john i can bring up some stats or scenarios. But my point was made to make it look unlikely given the current atlantic driven pattern.

anyway fire away with your responses no doubt youll have plenty to say...

SM06

[Met4Cast]

At no point am I aware that the met office have suggested where the air is sourced. When voicing opinions about the met office it is important to be factually correct when quoting them otherwise we end up in this kind of discussion.

My comment was tongue in cheek anyway!

The MO said this, and I quote "Easterly winds could bring wintry showers to some parts" Forgive me for suggesting they are forecasting winds coming in from the East. I must have been thrown off by the mention of "Easterly Winds"

I think its fairly safe to assume that when they mention Easterly Winds, that the source of said winds is likely to be from the East. Is that not a fair assumption to make?

Only on Net-Weather can someone jump down someones elses throat over absolutely nothing, deary me.

Edited November 9, 2010 by Daniel AKA WMD

[ZONE 51]

what a debate! just to add that as most know the north sea being warmer than the inland would help build the clouds bigger and heavier ppn would fall as it heads in to the coast, and if air temp in the right places are cold enough the the ppn would be wintry. sleet/wet snow/snow, if the upper air temp are cold enough but not so lower the snow would turn to sleet then rain, but if the ppn was very heavy would this not bring down the colder air to lower levels cooling the lower air further?

im a fan of the met office.

[Aceman]

crikey, some of us need to relax a little

[Tattooed Fox]

heres a picture comparing the 2009 to the 2010 state of the gulf stream. its clear from the picture that it has decreased in size and intensity quite worryingly. i think there will be a lag time involved with this. i think that once the warm waters that are already in the north atlantic have cooled, we will start to feel the effects as barely any warm water will be transported up towards western europe.

tHi 19jacobob93,

Very interesting what you are saying. What will the outcome for this scenario be, are we talking about the weather taking a more eratic approach just for this winter, and the gulf stream warm up again once next year comes. OR are we talking about a long term thing. YEARS.

[chionomaniac]

Yes, but cold air wasn't sourced from the East, it had been dragged down with quite an intense area of low pressure. That's very different to winds coming in from the East and bringing wintry showers across Eastern areas, isn't it?

The MO said this, and I quote "Easterly winds could bring wintry showers to some parts" Forgive me for suggesting they are forecasting winds coming in from the East. I must have been thrown off by the mention of "Easterly Winds"

I think its fairly safe to assume that when they mention Easterly Winds, that the source of said winds is likely to be from the East. Is that not a fair assumption to make?

So where are today's easterly winds sourced then. From the east?

[Met4Cast]

So where are today's easterly winds sourced then. From the east?

There is a trend for more settled, but colder weather to become established across much of the UK. Rainfall should be mostly below average, especially in the west. Easterly winds could bring wintry showers to some parts, particularly to the east coast. Temperatures are likely to be below average with an increased risk of frost overnight.

..................

Going by what the MO have said in the forecast above, I think it's safe to assume the colder air will not be brought down by an area of low pressure, considering they're going for settled weather and below average rainfall in the West, which suggests they are expecting High Pressure to be close to Western Parts.

Edited November 9, 2010 by Daniel AKA WMD

[19jacobob93]

tHi 19jacobob93,

Very interesting what you are saying. What will the outcome for this scenario be, are we talking about the weather taking a more eratic approach just for this winter, and the gulf stream warm up again once next year comes. OR are we talking about a long term thing. YEARS.

only time will tell im affraid! the only difference i think we will see this winter is that westerly winds will have less of a warming effect. were not going to enter a new ice age as some people have been suggesting, nor will we be seeing the coldest winter in 1,000 years as polish scientists have said because of this! but yes i find it hard to imagine a mild winter this year.

[chionomaniac]

There is a trend for more settled, but colder weather to become established across much of the UK. Rainfall should be mostly below average, especially in the west. Easterly winds could bring wintry showers to some parts, particularly to the east coast. Temperatures are likely to be below average with an increased risk of frost overnight.

..................

Going by what the MO have said in the forecast above, I think it's safe to assume the colder air will not be brought down by an area of low pressure, considering they're going for settled weather and below average rainfall in the West, which suggests they are expecting High Pressure to be close to Western Parts.

I would agree with you there, Daniel, and in that case the met office are not suggesting a long Easterly fetch anyway as S-M 2006 originally thought they were.