Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

[Snowyowl9]

January 2007 apparently they said at the time it was the most severe daytime storm since 1990.

It was as far as I saw,if there would`ve been any squalls/showers that day which there wasn`t that would`ve been the worst storm since 1976.

Since Jan 1993 I would say,unless that was later in the day/night.

Otherwise christmas eve 1997 nightime.

1998 I noted severe gales at night on that chart but no damage.

This month has at least given 2 air frosts,I can see 1 or 2 more before the month is out.

Feb 1997 gave less.

[Thundery wintry showers]

8th January 2005 was the severest one of the "noughties" that I can remember- there was a fair amount of structural damage about that day as I travelled from Cleadon to Lancaster. Around Lancaster University a large number of trees were uprooted and a few had been blown over completely, although buildings remained intact.

The 18th January 2007 was a more recent one although I was in Cleadon at the time and the severest winds missed Cleadon.

There were gales as recently as the first week of February 2011 although these were combined with a persistent cloud cover, as opposed to the blustery squally showers associated with many previous gales. The 11th November 2010 one was rather more memorable, and in Norwich that one did feature blustery showers.

[Snowyowl9]

Yes this year has been potent at least locally november a huge ash tree snapped off.

And this feb the most severe here since 2007 did some damage to a roof.

I`ve seen 2 mountain ash trees one uprooted another half broken off,found one today.

[Summer of 95]

I would nominate 1988/89 the most pear-shaped winter ever, in that cold weather set in during November (albeit not as extreme as late November 2010) with widespread snowfalls around the 20th, and then an abrupt pattern change arose in the first week of December leaving Mr Bartlett in charge of our weather until mid February. Although late February 1989 had some marginal snow events, even then, low-lying areas typically saw no more than the odd short-lived accumulation on the ground.

As far as snow lovers are concerned, surely three very mild months with just one week of marginal snow events is more of a disaster than one exceptionally cold month with numerous snowfalls for many, one cool but largely snowless month and one very mild month?

No, this is the most pear-shaped winter of all- I'd call it a butternut squash-shaped winter in fact:

1919-20:

September(SEPTEMBER!) There was even snow cover on low ground from northern England north and on higher ground in Wales and the southwest as well as high ground in the Midlands on the night of the 19-20th. The snow was 2" deep at Princetown in Dartmoor. Snow cover lasted on Snowdon for a week. This is probably the earliest snowfall date.

OctoberNotable prolonged frosty spell. Very cold (7.4C CET - the second coldest of the century), but dry and very sunny

NovemberA very cold month (3.3), with frequent north-easterlies.The first ten days were generally cold with some night frosts, with easterly winds. The cold spell really set in on the 11th as the winds gturned to the north. There were snow showers in eastern Scotland from 8th to 10th, but lat e on the 11th it snowed heavily across Scotland, leading to many villages being cut off. There was a foot of snow on Dartmoor, 17" at Balmoral, and 8" at Edinburgh. This was the lowest reading of the year, and is the earliest date on which such a low temperature has occurred. It was also down to -21.1C at West Linton and Balmoral on the 14th; the maximum on the 14th at Balmoral was only -10,and -12C on the 15th. The next night, the temperature fell to -2 -22.8 on the morning of the 15th. Snow lay at Braemar to a depth of 42 cm; it lay from the 11th until the end of the month. The lowest maximum on the 14th in England was -2.7C near Carlisle, and the lowest minimum in England in this cold spell was -12.8C at Scaleby (also Cumberland) on the 16th. A snowstorm on the night of the 11/12th gave heavy falls across the country - e.g. 12 inches on Dartmoor. This would be an exceptional cold spell in the depth of winter, yet alone in autumn.

And then:

DecemberMild, wet and dull, particularly in the east, with frequent gales. Manchester only recorded 7 hours of sunshine all month. It was the wettest month of the year. (Thought Feb 2011 was mild, dull and wet?)

January A cold start, then mild, wet and windy

February Mostly very mild. Wet in the north, but quite dry in the south. There was flooding in northern and central Britain mid-month. 17C recorded in East Anglia on the 18th, and in Edinburgh on the 28th. (Hello Mr Bartlett?)

Summaries from http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/1920_weather.htm

CETs Sep-Feb: 12.7, 7.4, 3.3; 5.5, 5.2, 6.0- November the coldest month by around2C.

Edited February 16, 2011 by Summer of 95

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think you've made a very strong case for 1919/20- I can imagine how high the hopes for 1919/20 would've been, followed by being brought straight down to earth with the winter quarter.

Possibly the most extreme occurrence on record when a cold November really did lead into a mild, mucky winter!

[Summer of 95]

I think you've made a very strong case for 1919/20- I can imagine how high the hopes for 1919/20 would've been, followed by being brought straight down to earth with the winter quarter.

Possibly the most extreme occurrence on record when a cold November really did lead into a mild, mucky winter!

I just wonder if there was somewhere that winter where the snowiest month was September. Snowdonia doesn't always catch it in a NE-ly.

[AderynCoch]

That was the coldest autumn of the 20th century. December must have felt like such a letdown.

[Weather-history]

No, this is the most pear-shaped winter of all- I'd call it a butternut squash-shaped winter in fact:

1919-20:

Look at 1915-1916

The November preceding it was exceptionally cold with 2.8C

December was milder with 5.3C

January was the mildest on record with 7.5C and to think the second coldest November on record was recorded only a few weeks before

February was colder but the real cold didn't kick in until the last week. 3.8C

The came a cold and wintry March with a CET of 3.3C

The winter season was sandwiched between two very cold months.

Infact if you shunt that period by one month up, we almost have had a repeat this time around, with instead of an exceptionally cold November, an exceptionally cold December etc....

Also 1795-96

Cold November with 4.5C followed a very mild December-January period 6.6C and 7.3C respectively, a mild February with 4.7C and a cold March with 4.2C

The miildest winter on record 1868-69 was preceded by a cold November with 4.9C and succeeded by a cold March with 3.8C

Edited February 17, 2011 by Mr_Data

[North-Easterly Blast]

Look at 1915-1916

The November preceding it was exceptionally cold with 2.8C

December was milder with 5.3C

January was the mildest on record with 7.5C and to think the second coldest November on record was recorded only a few weeks before

February was colder but the real cold didn't kick in until the last week. 3.8C

The came a cold and wintry March with a CET of 3.3C

The winter season was sandwiched between two very cold months.

Infact if you shunt that period by one month up, we almost have had a repeat this time around, with instead of an exceptionally cold November, an exceptionally cold December etc....

Also 1795-96

Cold November with 4.5C followed a very mild December-January period 6.6C and 7.3C respectively, a mild February with 4.7C and a cold March with 4.2C

The miildest winter on record 1868-69 was preceded by a cold November with 4.9C and succeeded by a cold March with 3.8C

Yes very true, the winter of 1915-16 was an extreme case of having good early and late season cold with a prolonged exceptionally mild spell through the middle of the season. 1795-96 is also something similar too. Although so far that is different to 2010-11. Those two winters that you mention started in the late autumn and then quickly deteriorated into mild rubbish once December began, but winter did return late in the season and give a cold early spring.

The two above are different from 2010-11, a winter that had the most extreme pre Xmas freeze up on record from late November to Xmas, and then quickly dissappeared abruptly into nothing never to return, and a very mild February. At least in 1915-16 and 1795-96 the cold did at last make a return late on.

Rather than being a cold winter overall, 2010-11 certainly has to be remembered for an exceptional early season pre Xmas freeze up deteriorating into nothing by late December, never to return and swinging quite the opposite in the February. It certainly won't be remembered as being a reasonably cold winter overall like 1995-96 or its likes were, which had cold spells spread through the winter, and apart from the first 20 days of that January, which were the only mild spell in that winter, I think that most weather enthusiasts and cold lovers would have been happy with that winter. At least even 2008-09 saw cold spells reasonably spread and cold occurred up to mid Feb.

I wouldn't imagine that there has ever been a winter that saw early season cold of the level of pre Xmas 2010, to deteriorate into nothing as early as Dec 27th never to return, and leave the rest of the winter with next to nothing and such a dire February.

Edited February 17, 2011 by North-Easterly Blast

[Weather-history]

Another pear-shaped winter 1732-33

Dec 1732: 2.2

Jan 1733: 6.9

Feb 1733: 6.0

Infact for a cold winter weather lover, 1733 would be the ultimate horror story as it is the only instance where all 3 winter months in the same year were at least 6.0 or above

Jan 1733: 6.9

Feb 1733: 6.0

Dec 1733: 7.6

[North-Easterly Blast]

Another pear-shaped winter 1732-33

Dec 1732: 2.2

Jan 1733: 6.9

Feb 1733: 6.0

Infact for a cold winter weather lover, 1733 would be the ultimate horror story as it is the only instance where all 3 winter months in the same year were at least 6.0 or above

Jan 1733: 6.9

Feb 1733: 6.0

Dec 1733: 7.6

Yes another great example of a pear shaped winter, although still doesen't reach 2010-11 levels of a pear shaped winter, it still didn't have a pre Xmas / December period quite as extreme as 2010, so yes a big swing of a pear shaped winter, but not quite as big as swing of a pear shaped winter as 2010-11 has been. Even if records went back before 1659, I still think that you would struggle to find a winter that had quite such an extreme freeze up pre Xmas, on the level of 2010, to deteriorate into nothing in late December and swing to the opposite extreme in February. Yes Kevin may be able to come up with examples of pear shaped winters, but they will always be somewhat lesser pear shaped than 2010-11, with less severe early cold spells deteriorating into nothing.

Further back in early CET records, there was a winter that even surpassed the severity of 1962-63 by quite some way - 1683-1684, which had a CET of -1.17*C. Imagine that - it would be very nearly (just 0.2 cumulative degrees short) like having a winter made up of the likes of December 1981, January 1963 and February 1947. I think that a pear shaped winter of the likes of 2010-11, to start with a freeze up averaging -1.5 for the CET up to Boxing Day, and then abruptly deteriorating into nothing one / two days after, never to return, and then getting a very mild February, (6-7*C), is a pear shaped winter of an equivalent extreme to the extremity of the freeze up of winter 1683-1684.

If the February finishes at 5.9 or above, then the record is broken for the mildest ever winter on record that contained a sub zero month. If February is 6.2 or above, then it will be the mildest February on record to follow a sub 1*C December.

Surely anyone would think that the chances of a repeat of a winter exactly like 2010-11 is equal to the chances of another 1962-63 or even 1683-1684.

Edited February 17, 2011 by North-Easterly Blast

[Weather-history]

. Even if records went back before 1659, I still think that you would struggle to find a winter that had quite such an extreme freeze up pre Xmas, on the level of 2010, to deteriorate into nothing in late December and swing to the opposite extreme in February.

It was always a finite statistical possibility, and it has happened. It is a statistical possibility that May could be colder than March, it hasn't as far as we know but it is a finite possibility nevertheless

As I mentioned before November 1915 to January 1916 is a similiar situation of exceptional cold to exceptional mild within a short timeframe. 2nd coldest November, mildest January on record.

We have to accept it, whether its rainfall, sunshine, temperature etc

[Weather-history]

Well it had to come to an end sometime but looking at the last 8 winter months before February 2011 and the highest CET is February 2009 with 4.1

Dec 08: 3.5

Jan 09: 3.0

Feb 09: 4.1

Dec 09: 3.1

Jan 10: 1.4

Feb 10: 2.8

Dec 10: -0.7

You have to back to the early 1890s to find a longer run where a winter month hasn't recorded a CET of at least 4.2 or greater.

Feb 1890 to Jan 1893 with 9

[North-Easterly Blast]

It was always a finite statistical possibility, and it has happened. It is a statistical possibility that May could be colder than March, it hasn't as far as we know but it is a finite possibility nevertheless

As I mentioned before November 1915 to January 1916 is a similiar situation of exceptional cold to exceptional mild within a short timeframe. 2nd coldest November, mildest January on record.

We have to accept it, whether its rainfall, sunshine, temperature etc

Winter 1915-16 is one of, if not the most extremes of a winter that has a notably significant both very early and late cold spell with a long exceptional mild spell in the middle. That winter wasn't "pear shaped" in the way that it had an exceptional early cold spell quickly deteriorating into nothing, then very mild, never to return. Although the exceptional November deteriorated into nothing then very mild, the cold did return during the second half of February and lasted for most of March with a number of snowfalls too, and that would have seemed like a great late season cold spell looking at records, with a March CET of 3.3. It wasn't quite like 2010-11; the early cold didn't disappear for good.

In more recent years a good winter that saw a much shorter middle mild spell was 1995-96, and on both sides of the first 20 days of the January of that winter there were good cold spells.

A similar winter to 1915-16 in some respects was 1874-75. That year saw a similarly cold December to 2010, then a very mild January (6.4), by a long way the mildest January ever after such a cold December, then the cold did make a return during February although with less severity than December, with a CET of 2.3 for Feb 1875.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Well it had to come to an end sometime but looking at the last 8 winter months before February 2011 and the highest CET is February 2009 with 4.1

Dec 08: 3.5

Jan 09: 3.0

Feb 09: 4.1

Dec 09: 3.1

Jan 10: 1.4

Feb 10: 2.8

Dec 10: -0.7

You have to back to the early 1890s to find a longer run where a winter month hasn't recorded a CET of at least 4.2 or greater.

Feb 1890 to Jan 1893 with 9

Yes very true. Even before the post 1988 warm era and in the last 300 years there were not many longer runs than we have had of eight sucessive winter months not recording a CET of 4.2 or higher. This really did have to be broken at some point. However, the 6-7*C that looks likely for this February makes it worrying that the post 1988 even larger teapot era has kicked back into gear or at least not left us. Such a notable early cold spell deteriorating into a Febbruary CET in the 6-7 range really suggests that it is likely we are back to the warming era that most years since 1988 have seen. In natural variation before 1988 there were always milder Februarys / winter months at times. If this February could have seen a CET of say, 5 to 5.5 then it wouldn't have looked worse than being a milder month as part of natural variation, and that would not be too outlandish, and would have still looked less worrying that we are returning to the warming of the typical post 1988 era.

[North-Easterly Blast]

I think that it now shows that getting too much in the way of serious cold pre Christmas is in most cases, not a good sign for the rest of the winter ahead. I think that the facts are there to say now that if serious cold develops around late Nov / early Dec then most of the winter can be written off as being anything special. On the other hand, I am not saying that if pre Xmas is mild zonal Bartlett all the way it is a good sign either for the rest of winter as a whole; I would say that the best scenario pre Xmas is a mixed bag of weather with shorter more modest cold spells and shorter mild spells at times, and seeing serious cold develop close to the festive period, as I would say that evidence in records shows that more often serious cold in late December has more "staying power" than serious cold setting in during late Nov / early Dec.

It always is a finite possibility that serious cold pre Xmas will lead the winter as whole to being special, but the vast majority of the time serious pre Xmas cold will lead to nothing or most of the winter being disappointing for the most part.

Looks disappointing for most of next week, a zonal Bartlett setting in. Yes in the last couple of years we have seen northern blocking synoptics make a return, which many were questioning for years as to if it would ever return, but more to the point now, a question is; "Will cold polar maritime zonality ever return?" This sort of setup would make the majority of zonal setups that are not like what is shown so sickening to live through:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840115.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840116.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840123.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840124.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840126.gif

Look at that zonality. PV still over Greenland with often deep purples, no significant blocking over the NE either, a zonal flow over the UK albeit of a NW-SE orientation, no Bartlett High, and guess what, a zonal flow delivered frequent heavy snowfalls to many northern areas and further south on occasion, instead of the frequent rain often associated with zonality, and exceptionally snowy conditions to Scotland and northern England. It amazingly shows without northern blocking what a zonal setup can deliver to the UK if it is orientated favourably and there is no Bartlett / Euro High in place. It also shows that, given favourable orientation, it is possible to get a zonal pattern that delivers a spell that turns a month into one of, if not the snowiest January on record for northern England and Scotland, and most espcially at higher levels.

That setup in the historic charts really has me tearing my hair out when all we get from zonality is 10-12*C temps with frequent rain and no frost either. I find the worst aspect of the UK climate to have to live through often getting this sort of mild mush over the winter period, and find life in the UK a waste. My only question now is, when we have at least seen the synoptics we saw in 2009-10 and the pre Xmas 2010 spell, and early Feb 2009, is if we have to have Atlantic zonality, why can it not be of the cold polar maritime type like that described above? All you need is no Bartlett High, a more NW-SE orientation of the zonal flow, and there is polar maritime air over the UK.

I would say that the best we have come in most recent times to seeing colder zonality of a polar maritime origin is during mid to late January 2009. From about the 11th of that month, the pattern was largely dominated by Atlantic zonality although temperatures rarely rose above the average apart from isolated days. The zonal flow in this period was more favourably orientated; more so in a NW-SE track and there was no Bartlett High, and at times it was cold enough for frosts and even on occasion this zonal pattern did give snowfall to higher parts of northern England such as across the Pennines with a fairly reasonable snow cover in places on the hills, albeit with sleet at lower levels, and was definitely a significant improvement on this present month and what most zonal spells over the last 20 odd years have produced.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090120.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090124.gif

We came pretty good in the mid 90s too at times:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950302.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950126.gif

I am just sick to death of having to endure mild zonal spells in the UK winter like 10-12 temps and frequent rain, as the above examples of colder zonality just has me tearing my hair out and makes a mild zonal spell all the more difficult to live with. Why can't a British winter zonal be, and will a British winter zonal spell ever shape up like January 1984? Or at the very least, to get a British Winter zonal spell shaping up like mid to late January 2009, to continue a more modest trend set in the last two or three years? This February has just been utterly dire and rubbish, and back to the rubbish mild zonality, and even the zonality of mid to late Jan 2009 would really have been a pleasing sight to what this month has produced. I just want rid of it, and although not quite an 88-89, 89-90, 97-98, 01-02, 06-07, 07-08 style disaster, living through this winter has just been dissappointing with hopes set after such a great start.

Edited February 18, 2011 by North-Easterly Blast

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I think that it now shows that getting too much in the way of serious cold pre Christmas is in most cases, not a good sign for the rest of the winter ahead. I think that the facts are there to say now that if serious cold develops around late Nov / early Dec then most of the winter can be written off as being anything special. On the other hand, I am not saying that if pre Xmas is mild zonal Bartlett all the way it is a good sign either for the rest of winter as a whole; I would say that the best scenario pre Xmas is a mixed bag of weather with shorter more modest cold spells and shorter mild spells at times, and seeing serious cold develop close to the festive period, as I would say that evidence in records shows that more often serious cold in late December has more "staying power" than serious cold setting in during late Nov / early Dec.

It always is a finite possibility that serious cold pre Xmas will lead the winter as whole to being special, but the vast majority of the time serious pre Xmas cold will lead to nothing or most of the winter being disappointing for the most part.

Looks disappointing for most of next week, a zonal Bartlett setting in. Yes in the last couple of years we have seen northern blocking synoptics make a return, which many were questioning for years as to if it would ever return, but more to the point now, a question is; "Will cold polar maritime zonality ever return?" This sort of setup would make the majority of zonal setups that are not like what is shown so sickening to live through:

http://www.wetterzen...00119840115.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119840116.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119840123.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119840124.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119840126.gif

Look at that zonality. PV still over Greenland with often deep purples, no significant blocking over the NE either, a zonal flow over the UK albeit of a NW-SE orientation, no Bartlett High, and guess what, a zonal flow delivered frequent heavy snowfalls to many northern areas and further south on occasion, instead of the frequent rain often associated with zonality, and exceptionally snowy conditions to Scotland and northern England. It amazingly shows without northern blocking what a zonal setup can deliver to the UK if it is orientated favourably and there is no Bartlett / Euro High in place.

That setup in the historic charts really has me tearing my hair out when all we get from zonality is 10-12*C temps with frequent rain and no frost either. I find the worst aspect of the UK climate to have to live through often getting this sort of mild mush over the winter period, and find life in the UK a waste. My only question now is, when we have at least seen the synoptics we saw in 2009-10 and the pre Xmas 2010 spell, and early Feb 2009, is if we have to have Atlantic zonality, why can it not be of the cold polar maritime type like that described above? All you need is no Bartlett High, a more NW-SE orientation of the zonal flow, and there is polar maritime air over the UK.

I would say that the best we have come in most recent times to seeing colder zonality of a polar maritime origin is during mid to late January 2009. From about the 11th of that month, the pattern was largely dominated by Atlantic zonality although temperatures rarely rose above the average apart from isolated days. The zonal flow in this period was more favourably orientated; more so in a NW-SE track and there was no Bartlett High, and at times it was cold enough for frosts and even on occasion this zonal pattern did give snowfall to higher parts of northern England such as across the Pennines with a fairly reasonable snow cover in places on the hills, albeit with sleet at lower levels, and was definitely a significant improvement on this present month and what most zonal spells over the last 20 odd years have produced.

http://www.wetterzen...00120090120.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00120090124.gif

We came pretty good in the mid 90s too at times:

http://www.wetterzen...00119950302.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119950126.gif

I am just sick to death of having to endure mild zonal spells in the UK winter like 10-12 temps and frequent rain, as the above examples of colder zonality just has me tearing my hair out and makes a mild zonal spell all the more difficult to live with. Why can't a British winter zonal be, and will a British winter zonal spell ever shape up like January 1984? Or at the very least, to get a British Winter zonal spell shaping up like mid to late January 2009, to continue a more modest trend set in the last two or three years? This February has just been utterly dire and rubbish, and back to the rubbish mild zonality, and even the zonality of mid to late Jan 2009 would really have been a pleasing sight to what this month has produced. I just want rid of it, and although not quite an 88-89, 89-90, 97-98, 01-02, 06-07, 07-08 style disaster, living through this winter has just been dissappointing with hopes set after such a great start.

I hate cold zonality, all it means is rain all the time, I am too far south and too low generally for snow off that setup, need to be 300m or higher or lower in Scotland, I hate rain, a massive snow/cold fan I am, would still rather see 15°C and dry bartletty type than constant 3°C and rain

[North-Easterly Blast]

I hate cold zonality, all it means is rain all the time, I am too far south and too low generally for snow off that setup, need to be 300m or higher or lower in Scotland, I hate rain, a massive snow/cold fan I am, would still rather see 15°C and dry bartletty type than constant 3°C and rain

Definitely 10-15*C is just ridiculously mild for Dec / Jan / Feb, if we get long spells of this at this time of year then the temperature seems to hardly ever change at all from January to April. Many years in the last 20 odd years have seemed this way.

[Evening thunder]

That setup in the historic charts really has me tearing my hair out when all we get from zonality is 10-12*C temps with frequent rain and no frost either. I find the worst aspect of the UK climate to have to live through often getting this sort of mild mush over the winter period, and find life in the UK a waste. My only question now is, when we have at least seen the synoptics we saw in 2009-10 and the pre Xmas 2010 spell, and early Feb 2009, is if we have to have Atlantic zonality, why can it not be of the cold polar maritime type like that described above? All you need is no Bartlett High, a more NW-SE orientation of the zonal flow, and there is polar maritime air over the UK.

If you really feel that strongly about it maybe it would be worth moving to somewhere that doesn't have a climate like the UK? Unfortunately it is part of our climate and we will always get spells like this from time to time. There's various climate and weather zones across the world and the UK/ West Europe is just another one of these. For me I don't think the idea for everything in weather to just be about snow or frost is that appealing, in the UK especially. As for 'cold zonality' synoptics, they will happen again, unless something unprecedented happens to the earth. Even in a warming world the same synoptic pattern would appear again at some point, even if its a slightly warmer version. I just prefer to enjoy the various weather types that I like, and I like summer weather types as much as many winter ones, for example convective weather. It's just different preferences I guess.

December 2010 was quite special for here I think and I'd have far rather experienced that, seen nearly a foot of snow and temps dropping to -14C on Christmas day, snow lying for 13 days and 6 inches on te 25th still, and had a mild Feb with the possibility of some nice spring like days and unusually warm temps coming up, than had a more normal Dec/Jan/Feb and not seen such cold as in December.

Who knows if we had a climate where we got cold zonality and snow all the time we might just get fed up of it like some do our mild spells (including me at times) It certainly makes us appreciate it more when it happens.

Edited February 18, 2011 by Stormmad26

[North-Easterly Blast]

If you really feel that strongly about it maybe it would be worth moving to somewhere that doesn't have a climate like the UK? Unfortunately it is part of our climate and we will always get spells like this from time to time. There's various climate and weather zones across the world and the UK/ West Europe is just another one of these. For me I don't think the idea for everything in weather to just be about snow or frost is that appealing, in the UK especially. As for 'cold zonality' synoptics, they will happen again, unless something unprecedented happens to the earth. Even in a warming world the same synoptic pattern would appear again at some point, even if its a slightly warmer version. I just prefer to enjoy the various weather types that I like, and I like summer weather types as much as many winter ones, for example convective weather. It's just different preferences I guess.

December 2010 was quite special for here I think and I'd have far rather experienced that, seen nearly a foot of snow and temps dropping to -14C on Christmas day, snow lying for 13 days and 6 inches on te 25th still, and had a mild Feb with the possibility of some nice spring like days and unusually warm temps coming up, than had a more normal Dec/Jan/Feb and not seen such cold as in December.

Who knows if we had a climate where we got cold zonality and snow all the time we might just get fed up of it like some do our mild spells (including me at times) It certainly makes us appreciate it more when it happens.

Cold polar maritime zonality provides, I feel, the UK with the some of the most interesting and wide variety of weather that can occur in winter. You can get high winds, mostly rain on low ground, sunny breaks, cold temperatures and frost at times, and on occasion when there is enough cold polar maritime air in the circulation, even snow to lower levels. It is far better than having days on end or in some cases weeks on end of mild tropical maritime zonality, with maxima often in double figures, and cloud and rain, no snow and no frost either. Mild zonality is just not what winter should be, and enduring it for more than a few days just drives me nuts, and will bore anyone with interest in the weather to death.

Besides any chances of seeing a 47 / 63 type winter, I would just love and relish a repeat of January 1984. Right from the start of that month, there was frequent snowfall across Scotland, although it was mostly mild with wind and rain further south, albeit there were a couple of northerly topplers in the first half. It was around mid-month there were severe gales, and much snowfall to northern districts as far south as Yorkshire, with rain further south. As the zonal flow orientated very favourably north to south, after a few frosty and often sunny days there were heavy blizzards for northern areas and even snow events further south too, between the 22nd and 24th. Snow remained on the ground for up to a week in many places, before the zonal flow turned a little more w-E around the end of the month.

As well as the great cold winter months in 47 / 63 / 79, 85, 86, 87, Feb 1991 etc, January 1984 is among my favourite months ever in the British climate. It shows how wintry a zonal setup can be, and it had just about everything for many of us a winter month can provide. It ranged from frequent rain, storm force winds, sunny spells, frosts, occasional fog, heavy snowfalls from a zonal flow that lay on the ground for a week!

What more could anyone wish for? Although in terms of an extreme long freeze up it won't be remembered except for Scottish folks, but January 1984 will be remembered as a highlight for the wide variety of weather it provided for a winter month, and how snowy a zonal setup can be if orientated favourably. Oh would love another month or even a spell to rival it.

If only cold polar maritime zonality would return to the UK's weather, like January 1984 or at the very least, like mid to late January 2009, and if we could have no more of the zonal Bartlett tropical maritime zonality.

Edited February 18, 2011 by North-Easterly Blast

[Snowyowl9]

The flow`s been from the wrong direction this month SW-lys or S-lys.

Only one day with cold zonality and that was last week and that was SW,giving a covering of snow 400metres in a heavy shower.

Edited February 18, 2011 by Snowyowl9

[Thundery wintry showers]

I must say that I've found the zonal spells of this winter pretty tedious- mostly mild cloudy tropical maritime stuff with a thick layer of stratus & stratocumulus just the odd sunny day. I don't mind mild zonality if it brings a strong polar maritime influence with frequent days of sunshine and squally showers and active frontal passages, but there's been very little of that south of the Scottish border this winter.

It's a shame that we don't get much of that "cold zonality" stuff in the UK- interestingly the main cause of this is also the main cause of my main gripe with UK zonality (too much Tm air and not enough Pm air)- secondary lows often keep developing and cutting off the cold polar air, as well as restricting us to the occasional day of sunshine and showers in between spells of tropical maritime air (grey and drizzly) and ridges of high pressure (dry and sunny). However, in truth, we get much the same weather from cyclonic northerly and north-westerly types, particularly as we head into spring and the sun is increasingly able to initiate homegrown convection, reducing the reliance on vigorous westerly flows to carry showers eastwards across the country.

Historically cold zonality has rarely delivered much lying snow to the south, even the January 1984 instance didn't (though it was certainly an exceptionally snowy month for most from the north Midlands northwards). I remember March 1995 well for its frequent days of towering Cb cells and sharp snow and hail showers, but even in the Tyne and Wear area it was often a case of accumulations during showers and thaws during the sunny intervals in between.

[Evening thunder]

Cold polar maritime zonality provides, I feel, the UK with the some of the most interesting and wide variety of weather that can occur in winter. You can get high winds, mostly rain on low ground, sunny breaks, cold temperatures and frost at times, and on occasion when there is enough cold polar maritime air in the circulation, even snow to lower levels. It is far better than having days on end or in some cases weeks on end of mild tropical maritime zonality, with maxima often in double figures, and cloud and rain, no snow and no frost either. Mild zonality is just not what winter should be, and enduring it for more than a few days just drives me nuts, and will bore anyone with interest in the weather to death.

I agree with you there that it is certainly far more interesting than mild TM air, especially when the mild cloudy air flow lasts for days on end. I tend to look forward to showery PM air flows.

I guess I have just learnt over the years to enjoy what interesting weather we do get, and not to just chase the rare events and be unhappy for years until they occur. Of course enjoying them when they happen still! though for me our weather can still seem frustrating compared to other places sometimes.

[Weather-history]

and find life in the UK a waste.

I find comments like this by you slightly disturbing. I seriously think you should look at other alternative hobbies. There are too many things in the world more important to worry about than harp on about cold zonality, January 1984, pear-shaped winters etc. Get out and enjoy life than worry about these what are in reality are trivial to the wider world.

Edited February 18, 2011 by Mr_Data

[North-Easterly Blast]

I must say that I've found the zonal spells of this winter pretty tedious- mostly mild cloudy tropical maritime stuff with a thick layer of stratus & stratocumulus just the odd sunny day. I don't mind mild zonality if it brings a strong polar maritime influence with frequent days of sunshine and squally showers and active frontal passages, but there's been very little of that south of the Scottish border this winter.

It's a shame that we don't get much of that "cold zonality" stuff in the UK- interestingly the main cause of this is also the main cause of my main gripe with UK zonality (too much Tm air and not enough Pm air)- secondary lows often keep developing and cutting off the cold polar air, as well as restricting us to the occasional day of sunshine and showers in between spells of tropical maritime air (grey and drizzly) and ridges of high pressure (dry and sunny). However, in truth, we get much the same weather from cyclonic northerly and north-westerly types, particularly as we head into spring and the sun is increasingly able to initiate homegrown convection, reducing the reliance on vigorous westerly flows to carry showers eastwards across the country.

Historically cold zonality has rarely delivered much lying snow to the south, even the January 1984 instance didn't (though it was certainly an exceptionally snowy month for most from the north Midlands northwards). I remember March 1995 well for its frequent days of towering Cb cells and sharp snow and hail showers, but even in the Tyne and Wear area it was often a case of accumulations during showers and thaws during the sunny intervals in between.

You are dead right there, in recent years in the UK there has been too much in the way of tropical maritime air to allow polar maritime air to become embedded in the circulation of Atlantic lows. I see the problem, much like shortwaves and secondary lows preventing cold easterlies and Scandy Highs from being orientated favourably to bring cold weather to Britain. It seems now that it is often the case that in a zonal flow as lows pass through to the east of the UK, secondary lows often develop below them and cut off the polar maritime sections of the lows. Also the orientation seems to be stacked aganist us for getting cold polar maritime zonality - the orientation of zonal flows today most often seems to be SW-NE, with pressure frequently rising over Spain and Europe - very little or nothing today seems to be stacked in our favour to give us zonality of a polar maritime origin.

There have been numerous comments on these forums every winter almost since these sites were launched around ten years ago, like "will northern blocking ever return", and the answer has turned out to be, not throughout the 2000s until at least 2008-09, but it did do frequently in 2009-10, and pre Xmas 2010. Although this still doesen't answer the question "will cold zonal polar maritime synoptics ever return?" The only answer I can see to that is, things took a step in the right direction in mid to late January 2009, when the zonal setup became a half way house between 2007 / 2008 mild zonality and true cold polar maritime synoptics that can even produce snow at lower levels. At that time there was far less high pressure over Spain / Europe, and the zonal flow orientated more favourably to lack tropical maritime air and have more in the way of polar air, to not rise temps above the norm and give at times snowfall to higher levels. Although two years on in Feb 2011 we are back to my much hated mild zonality, and possibly the most hated pattern of most other people.

I certainly think that winter 2010-11 has a top place in the record books for being "Britain's most pear shaped winter ever". To get a month's long cold spell averaging -1.5*C ending before the end of December is truly unprecedented in the UK's weather history, for so early in the season; even colder than the coldest December calendar month on record; then for that to abruptly deteriorate into next to nothing never to return, and then produce such a mild February, certainly puts this winter as extreme for a pear shaped winter, as 1683-1684 was at the top of the cold list.

There have been other pear shaped winters in the past, although I can not see that there was ever one as extreme as 2010-11.