Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

[Scorcher]

Maybe Mr Data can answer this- if February ends up with a CET of 6.5C for example, would this be a record for the difference between a December and February in the same winter?

[North-Easterly Blast]

I'm left wondering if the "ice in November to bear a duck, the rest of the winter will be slush and muck" saying is behind that bit in bold (bearing in mind that I've seen it referred to countless times over the last couple of months). The evidence for it is decidedly mixed, and it didn't work very well in 1965 and 1985, both of which had distinctly wintry Novembers followed by colder and snowier than average winters. 1993 in eastern Scotland and northeast England is another good counterexample- those areas were heavily hit by the easterly outbreak of 20-22 November 1993 with 5-10cm snow widespread and up to 20cm locally, which stuck around for a week, and those same regions had quite a snowy winter quarter in 1993/94.

This winter has seen a remarkable early freeze-up followed by next to nothing, in similar fashion to 1981/82, but it isn't the statistical norm. Statistically, freeze-ups early in the season very rarely persist for the rest of the winter, but the most common progression is traditionally a more mixed January/February with some snowfalls but less severity, as happened for instance in 1950/51.

I certainly share your sentiments about hope for a more spread out winter next year though!

Winter 1965-66 wasn't cold, it was still on the mild side of the 1961-90 and earlier sets of averages, and only January was below average, Dec wasn't, and that winter still had a mild February, albeit with a short cold spell around mid-month.

This winter the cold broke just after Boxing Day, around Dec 27th, and has been followed by a nondescript January and a very mild first half of February to where we stand now.

1981-82 was still a bit of an improvement on this winter. It was not quite as early as it started on Dec 8th 1981, and lasted for three weeks and then a short milder break, followed by another freeze up in the first half of January, so in other words winter 1981-82 lasted three weeks longer than 2010-11, and it was still not over quite as ludicrously early as before the end of December. The rest of that winter was however largely mild; although February 1982 was nondescript and largely mild, colder weather did make an appearance for a time in the second half of the month, although nothing major, which prevented Feb 1982 from being too far above average overall.

1950-51 did have a very cold and pretty snowy December; Dec 1950 was very much a less severe version of Dec 1981 / 2010. What followed in Jan / Feb 1951 was as you rightly say, two mixed months, which saw quite a lot of cold zonality, and quite a bit of snow for higher parts of the country but little or short lived events at low levels.

As for early winter cold persisting through the rest of the winter, the most recent example of when this occurred that I can think of was 1916-17. Dec 1916 was cold even from the start, and it continued cold through Jan & Feb and also into March and April.

There were probably some examples in the 1800s / 1700s of early winter cold persisting through winter, 1878-79 was not bad, both Dec & Jan were very cold, and although Feb 1879 was less cold, the cold didn't dissappear comnpletely and the month was still quite cold by today's standards. Cold Decembers in 1844 and 1846 were followed by further cold spells in Jan / Feb.

I think that for a very cold winter (CET less than 2*C), the most favourable time for cold weather to set in is around Christmas time, as there is a better chance of cold setting in later in December persisting into a long cold winter, as the major cold in 1978-79 set in on Dec 30th, and in 1962-63 on Dec 22/23rd. It developed at a similar time in 1939-40 too, and although 1946-47 didn't really start until Jan 20th, there had been cold spells earlier on albeit not prolonged. Cold spells which begin in late Nov / early Dec seldom persist for too long, and I always feared pre Christmas this winter that the unusually early major freeze up would lead us into next to nothing for the large part of the winter season, which so far it has done.

I would certainly favour not seeing a repeat of a winter like 2010-11 again, which started so exceptionally and quickly faded into nothing, and has certainly been very dissappointing for a large part of the season and the main period of winter when significant cold would normally occur. It has felt basically that winter was over far too soon and then a long drawn out period of next to nothing before the start of spring. I would be happy with something like

2009-10 / 1995-96 any day, and even 2008-09 still had more interest in a larger part of the winter than this year. Something like 1990-91, 1985-86, 1984-85, or even 1981-82 would still be better than this winter. 1986-87 is a bit like this winter though in a different way, although it had the exceptional cold spell in Jan, it didn't last above two weeks and the rest of that winter equally like this year saw next to nothing.

[North-Easterly Blast]

The bulk of the cold was in the December, it was only in the last week of November the cold kicked in.

Saying it went horribly wrong, is a negative way at looking at it, the more positive spin would be you have lived through the coldest December in over century that no one alive has experienced and you have lived through the coldest 30 day pre Chritsmas spell in at least 300 years.

26th November-27th December 2010 CET: -1.5C

That is pretty exceptional, that is colder than January 1940 (-1.4C) and in calendar month wise, only February 1947 (-1.9C) and January 1963 (-2.1C) have turned out colder since 1900.

Add the fact that it happened early in the season as well.

-----------------------

Surely -1.5*C for a pre Christmas 30 day period must be a record by a long way, in the daily CET series from 1772. Can you confirm this Kevin please? I doubt if there was ever a 30 day pre-Christmas period much below 0*C. The only pre-Christmas cold spell approaching the level of 2010 must have been possibly 1890.

Still this winter has gone pear shaped a bit like 1944-45, which had a very cold January followed by a major switcharound to a very mild February, albeit it went belly up much earlier on than 1944-45 did.

Although only Feb 1947 and Jan 1963 have been the only calendar months below -1.5*C since 1900, I would have thought that there have been similarly cold month periods straddling two calendar months. For example, I would have thought that mid-Jan to mid-Feb 1917 must have been similarly cold.

Still if it is possible to get a sub zero CET month, then surely it must be possible to get a winter in the very cold (severe) category (CET sub 2*C) again, of which there have been six of these in the last 100 years, and around 36, or 10% of winters have crossed the sub 2*C threshold since 1659. 2009-10 was cold but it wasn't severe overall.

If -1.5*C is a record cold 30 day pre Christmas cold spell, then perosnally I would say that the chances of a repeat of the 2010 spell pre Xmas is as unlikely as another whole winter as cold as 1962-63, or a six week to two month long severe snowy spell at 1947 levels. If the pre Xmas 2010 cold spell is a record by a long way, then surely if anything the chances of a repeat of 1962-63 must be slightly higher than the chances of a repat of pre-Xmas 2010 so early in the season.

Edited February 12, 2011 by North-Easterly Blast

[Weather-history]

Maybe Mr Data can answer this- if February ends up with a CET of 6.5C for example, would this be a record for the difference between a December and February in the same winter?

December 1985 had a CET of 6.3C and the February had a CET of -1.1C

A 7.4C difference

I think this is the record temperature difference between a December and a February in the same winter.

[Scorcher]

December 1985 had a CET of 6.3C and the February had a CET of -1.1C

A 7.4C difference

I think this is the record temperature difference between a December and a February in the same winter.

Thanks for that, perhaps a chance of breaking this record this winter then! I was just thinking as well, in that 1985 example it was February that was far colder than December, which I'd imagine is a much more common occurrence.

Edited February 12, 2011 by Scorcher

[Weather-history]

Surely -1.5*C for a pre Christmas 30 day period must be a record by a long way, in the daily CET series from 1772. Can you confirm this Kevin please? I doubt if there was ever a 30 day pre-Christmas period much below 0*C. The only pre-Christmas cold spell approaching the level of 2010 must have been possibly 1890.

Still this winter has gone pear shaped a bit like 1944-45, which had a very cold January followed by a major switcharound to a very mild February, albeit it went belly up much earlier on than 1944-45 did.

Although only Feb 1947 and Jan 1963 have been the only calendar months below -1.5*C since 1900, I would have thought that there have been similarly cold month periods straddling two calendar months. For example, I would have thought that mid-Jan to mid-Feb 1917 must have been similarly cold.

Still if it is possible to get a sub zero CET month, then surely it must be possible to get a winter in the very cold (severe) category (CET sub 2*C) again, of which there have been six of these in the last 100 years, and around 36, or 10% of winters have crossed the sub 2*C threshold since 1659. 2009-10 was cold but it wasn't severe overall.

If -1.5*C is a record cold 30 day pre Christmas cold spell, then perosnally I would say that the chances of a repeat of the 2010 spell pre Xmas is as unlikely as another whole winter as cold as 1962-63, or a six week to two month long severe snowy spell at 1947 levels. If the pre Xmas 2010 cold spell is a record by a long way, then surely if anything the chances of a repeat of 1962-63 must be slightly higher than the chances of a repat of pre-Xmas 2010 so early in the season.

Its a record by a margin of about 0.5C, I would say.

I think the coldest 30 day period you can get from around January/ February 1917 is about -1.1C

If you look at winter 1880-81, it had a January of -1.5C but December and February were not special, December was 5.1C and February was 3.2C

That winter was largely made up of the period 7th-27th January and that was it. Take out that spell and the rest of the winter averaged 4.2C as opposed to the 2.3C it ended up as.

That is an example of a winter having one exceptional cold spell but the rest of the winter not special.

Another so called pear-shaped winter is 1917-18, that had a CET of 4.2C but the period 18th January to 28th February 1918 had a CET of 7.2C

1st December 1917-17th January 1918 CET was 1.7C

[Thundery wintry showers]

Perhaps the coldest December in over a century taking the UK as a whole. But more locally in Teesdale only the coldest month since Feb 1986. As others have said after the late November spell the was always a good chance it would be down hill from there.

I think from an exciting weather perspective your location was pretty unlucky- too far east to get the heavy snowfalls that affected the west on 17th/18th December and too far west to catch the snow showers that fired in off the North Sea during 19-24 December.

It's very difficult to get a major snowstorm that satisfies snow lovers across the country, for the kind of large systems that bring huge snowstorms to inland/upland areas also tend to be more marginal resulting in sleet/rain near the coasts (I remember this issue coming up twice- re. a possible mega-low at the end of November and another one around 22-24 December). The main problem with those two possible lows was that they were progged to be followed by a mixing out of the cold air resulting in rain extending inland below about 200m, whereas the frontal lows that hit during December 1981 were followed by renewed inputs of cold air meaning that the areas that did see rain tended to get snow -> rain -> snow.

In the end we got a late November/December of "safe" snow setups, which contributed to some inland parts largely missing out, but resulted in a lower mean temperature and a more widespread persistent snow cover across lowland areas as well as some impressive convection near many of the coasts.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Its a record by a margin of about 0.5C, I would say.

I think the coldest 30 day period you can get from around January/ February 1917 is about -1.1C

If you look at winter 1880-81, it had a January of -1.5C but December and February were not special, December was 5.1C and February was 3.2C

That winter was largely made up of the period 7th-27th January and that was it. Take out that spell and the rest of the winter averaged 4.2C as opposed to the 2.3C it ended up as.

That is an example of a winter having one exceptional cold spell but the rest of the winter not special.

Another so called pear-shaped winter is 1917-18, that had a CET of 4.2C but the period 18th January to 28th February 1918 had a CET of 7.2C

1st December 1917-17th January 1918 CET was 1.7C

February 1881 may not have been cold compared to the preceding January but 3.2 is still quite cold by today's standards for February.

What was the previous record for the coldest ever 30 day pre Christmas period ending on either Xmas Day or Boxing Day, Kevin? I'd imagine it was 1890 but I'm not sure.

So, 1917-18 was another pear shaped 1996-97, or 1944-45 esque winter wasn't it. I hadn't ever noticed that. Winters 1916-17 and 1917-18 were like a colder version of the 1995-96 and 1996-97 pair of winters.

Here is my list of pear shaped winters, that have started off well and faded into rubbish.

1996-97, and to a lesser extent 2001-02, 1981-82, 1944-45, 1917-18.

Now 2010-11 joins this list, at an earlier stage in the winter than any of the above. Another 1916-17 / 17-18, 95/96, 96/97 pattern repeating itself. I can't think of any pear shaped winter that went belly up as early as in the last week of December - on all the others it has been into January. Looking at records, the mildest February on record that has followed a very cold December (sub 1*C), was Feb 1871, which had a CET of 6.1*C. If this February beats this mild threshold then winter 2010-11 will surely beat 1944-45 and go down as THE MOST PEAR SHAPED WINTER EVER!

Edited February 12, 2011 by North-Easterly Blast

[Thundery wintry showers]

I still think it's too early to say (except for those who lose interest in snow around the beginning of March, for whom time is far more limited). No doubt people would have been complaining of a pear-shaped winter in February 1891, which was anticyclonic and completely snowless following the record-breaking December of 1890 and fairly cold January 1891, then along came some severe snowstorms in March.

[MP-R]

I'm left wondering if the "ice in November to bear a duck, the rest of the winter will be slush and muck" saying is behind that bit in bold (bearing in mind that I've seen it referred to countless times over the last couple of months). The evidence for it is decidedly mixed, and it didn't work very well in 1965 and 1985, both of which had distinctly wintry Novembers followed by colder and snowier than average winters. 1993 in eastern Scotland and northeast England is another good counterexample- those areas were heavily hit by the easterly outbreak of 20-22 November 1993 with 5-10cm snow widespread and up to 20cm locally, which stuck around for a week, and those same regions had quite a snowy winter quarter in 1993/94.

This winter has seen a remarkable early freeze-up followed by next to nothing, in similar fashion to 1981/82, but it isn't the statistical norm. Statistically, freeze-ups early in the season very rarely persist for the rest of the winter, but the most common progression is traditionally a more mixed January/February with some snowfalls but less severity, as happened for instance in 1950/51.

I certainly share your sentiments about hope for a more spread out winter next year though!

Yes very true! I was only 1 in 1993 haha but family records show what a cold November it was from the 15th or so onwards then there wasn't much to speak of bar a few flakes around Christmas.

The perfect transition into winter, for me, was that of November-December 2009 - an Atlantic-dominated November and first 10 days of December, getting colder through the following 10 days, and a positively wintry final third of the month leading on to the January.

I can't help but notice that this winter has followed last summer to a certain degree. Last summer began in the final third of May, June was a fantastic summer month, July was half respectable but often not, and August was pretty dire. This winter, winter began in the final third of November, December was a fantastic winter month, January was half respectable (from a cold point of view, but awful from a snow point of view), and so far, February has been dire. Fingers crossed for something during the rest of this month.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looking at records, the mildest February on record that has followed a very cold December (sub 1*C), was Feb 1871, which had a CET of 6.1*C. If this February beats this mild threshold then winter 2010-11 will surely beat 1944-45 and go down as THE MOST PEAR SHAPED WINTER EVER!

I think you'd need to revise this to "most pear-shaped following an amazing start" or something like that. No matter how the rest of February turns out, this winter quarter will be worlds apart from 1988/89!

I also think that memories tend to be short and that many people's perceptions of a season are biased towards the latter part of a season. For instance a winter made up of December 1988, January 1989 and February 1979 might have ended up regarded more positively by many cold/snow lovers simply because of the cold snowy weather being concentrated nearer the end of the season. This relates to Michael Prys-Roberts's post as well, for the same issue cropped up during the summer of 2010- had the June and the August been swapped, the summer would've been remembered far more positively.

I think there's something to be said for being able to live through and record a sub-zero calendar month. Perhaps a more "spread out" winter (same quantity of cold & snow but spread evenly through Dec/Jan/Feb) would have had many people saying "but the one thing missing is a proper sub-zero month!"- the grass is always greener, as they say.

Edited February 12, 2011 by Thundery wintry showers

[North-Easterly Blast]

I think you'd need to revise this to "most pear-shaped following an amazing start" or something like that. No matter how the rest of February turns out, this winter quarter will be worlds apart from 1988/89!

I also think that memories tend to be short and that many people's perceptions of a season are biased towards the latter part of a season. For instance a winter made up of December 1988, January 1989 and February 1979 might have ended up regarded more positively by many cold/snow lovers simply because of the cold snowy weather being concentrated nearer the end of the season. This relates to Michael Prys-Roberts's post as well, for the same issue cropped up during the summer of 2010- had the June and the August been swapped, the summer would've been remembered far more positively.

I think there's something to be said for being able to live through and record a sub-zero calendar month. Perhaps a more "spread out" winter (same quantity of cold & snow but spread evenly through Dec/Jan/Feb) would have had many people saying "but the one thing missing is a proper sub-zero month!"- the grass is always greener, as they say.

To get a very cold (sub 2*C winter) average for Dec, Jan, Feb it helps if there is a sub zero month, like Jan 1940, Feb 1947, Jan 1979 etc, or even Jan / Feb 1963, although it is possible without these exceptional months to still get a sub 2*C winter, like 1916-17 or 1928-29. However, Winter 2010-11 will have had an exceptional start but still will not be severe overall, and will have gone seriously down the pan after late December. I do not know of a winter that was made up of a poor Dec / Jan and then a good February, possibly the closest I can think of is 1982-83, although even Feb 1983 doesen't really fit with Dec 2010. At a plus, winters 1981-82, 84-85 and 85-86 may have had some exceptional cold spells but none were severe overall.

By "pear shaped" I mean a winter that has started off with a good cold spell and looked promising to turn into a classic and then seriously downgraded into nothing or even the mild weather like we have got now. Two thirds of winter 2010-11 will go down as a poor let down, which is a large part of the season. It has certainly been an exceptional early freeze up soon fading out into nothing and such a let down for the best part of the season. It is a bit like how on occasion when models have in the past promised something special only to downgrade near to the time - that is what winter 2010-11 has done.

Edited February 12, 2011 by North-Easterly Blast

[Weather-history]

Winter 1925-1926 is a little bit of analogy, to 2010-11. November-December 1925 was largely cold and the cold spell ended on Christmas Day 1925. After that, there was a short cold Scandinavian high spell mid month January 1926 but that was it. Even this was not enough to produce a below average January, the CET for that month ended up as 4.6C and the February was very mild with 6.8C

So after Christmas 1925, there was one short sharp cold spell but mild dominated January and February.

9th November-25th December 1925: 1.5C

23rd January-28th February 1926: 6.9C

Another so called pear-shaped winter.

Look at 1927-28. December 1927 was cold, colder than December 1995. You had the great Christmas snowstorm in the SE. Come New Year, zonality developed and both January and February were mild and stormy.

December 1937-38, December was cold and wintry at times but both January and February 1938 were on the mild side with limited cold. March and April were snow free.

Edited February 12, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Lincs Observation]

Hi All

have not posted for some time but i feel that this is worth posting for those klinging to the hope that winter has one last throw of the dice.

Joe laminate floori (i know many dont rate him but for me he has been pretty much on the money so far this year)

WINTER SENDS WICKED SHOT INTO THE HEART OF THE RUSSIAN HEAT WAVE ZONE FROM SUMMER.

Remember the brutal heat wave in summer in Russia. The core of some of the nastiest cold of the winter is on its way into that area. This is a heads-up from Germany to Turkey and northeast, and especially centered where the heat was worst in the summer, that this is the most brutal part of winter coming up.

In the meantime, winter can't get back into the northwest...for a while. There is an old adage among weather people from the generation before me that here in the states.. what happens in December, the winter will remember. I have never tested that in northwest Europe, but now that my point has been made about the fact that this was not going to be the most brutal WINTER in 100 years, that we would be much less cold in January and February, let me say that there is pretty good chance we will have a colder than normal March in the northwest. I will have more on that later...for now the brutality of this winter is about to punish eastern Europe. Look for it, given the big warm-up coming to the United States, to grab weather headlines worldwide.

LO

[Lincs Observation]

Hi All

have not posted for some time but i feel that this is worth posting for those klinging to the hope that winter has one last throw of the dice.

Joe laminate floori (i know many dont rate him but for me he has been pretty much on the money so far this year)

WINTER SENDS WICKED SHOT INTO THE HEART OF THE RUSSIAN HEAT WAVE ZONE FROM SUMMER.

Remember the brutal heat wave in summer in Russia. The core of some of the nastiest cold of the winter is on its way into that area. This is a heads-up from Germany to Turkey and northeast, and especially centered where the heat was worst in the summer, that this is the most brutal part of winter coming up.

In the meantime, winter can't get back into the northwest...for a while. There is an old adage among weather people from the generation before me that here in the states.. what happens in December, the winter will remember. I have never tested that in northwest Europe, but now that my point has been made about the fact that this was not going to be the most brutal WINTER in 100 years, that we would be much less cold in January and February, let me say that there is pretty good chance we will have a colder than normal March in the northwest. I will have more on that later...for now the brutality of this winter is about to punish eastern Europe. Look for it, given the big warm-up coming to the United States, to grab weather headlines worldwide.

LO

[Lincs Observation]

Hi All

have not posted for some time but i feel that this is worth posting for those klinging to the hope that winter has one last throw of the dice.

Joe laminate floori (i know many dont rate him but for me he has been pretty much on the money so far this year)

WINTER SENDS WICKED SHOT INTO THE HEART OF THE RUSSIAN HEAT WAVE ZONE FROM SUMMER.

Remember the brutal heat wave in summer in Russia. The core of some of the nastiest cold of the winter is on its way into that area. This is a heads-up from Germany to Turkey and northeast, and especially centered where the heat was worst in the summer, that this is the most brutal part of winter coming up.

In the meantime, winter can't get back into the northwest...for a while. There is an old adage among weather people from the generation before me that here in the states.. what happens in December, the winter will remember. I have never tested that in northwest Europe, but now that my point has been made about the fact that this was not going to be the most brutal WINTER in 100 years, that we would be much less cold in January and February, let me say that there is pretty good chance we will have a colder than normal March in the northwest. I will have more on that later...for now the brutality of this winter is about to punish eastern Europe. Look for it, given the big warm-up coming to the United States, to grab weather headlines worldwide.

LO

[Snowyowl9]

It`s still just a tad too early yet to right off this feb just yet,a bitter easterly is still within our grasp.

It probably won`t happen but it`s still showing on ECM.

What if we had a potent cold spell in March.

Winter 2005-06 did it for me,quite satisfied with that winter and spring.

So we`ve had the coldest december big snowfalls 6" in november and 7inches but no snowstorms(blizzard in other words)wind was too light,there was drifting,but last winter was better.

Parts of the NE had blizzards and drifting,I remember there were some huge snowdrifts somewhere up there somebody had I read.

January has been just a touch below average but forgettable one day of snow,feb has been very mild so far.

I would rather 1981/82 winter to this by quite a margin,it gave more snow and a true blizzard.

There were more date extremes lowest temperatures on record both in december and January.

Memory of this winter will fade much more unless something comes out of the blue.

[damianslaw]

Those bemoaning how this winter has evolved so far and others which started off on an exceptional snowy and cold note but come mid point quickly deteriorated into nothingness a la 1981/82, 1996/97.. are I believe speaking from a traditionalists' point of view. I also count myself as a traditionalist when it comes to the seasons and what you expect the weather to deliver i.e. cold not to really set in until christmas and the coldest period of the winter to be roughly between mid Jan and mid Feb. Many other traditionalists me included have bemoaned recent summers for very similiar reasons i.e. you don't expect any real sustained warmth until late June and you then expect the mid July-mid Aug to be the warmest period of the year. Alas the past four summers have failed to deliver any sustained warmth during mid July-mid August.

I do fear sustained cold before christmas and the earlier it occurs the more I fear. This winter saw an exceptionally early start to the season - it was quite ridiculous in many respects and always going to be a tall order to sustain such extreme cold through to the second half of the season. Last winter was much more traditional, the cold setting in just before christmas after a very mild and wet spell of weather in late nov/early dec-as it should be. The remainder of the winter was predominantly cold, with snow spells first half of Jan,late Jan/early feb and later at the end of Feb and into early March. Spring didn't get going until the second half of March - again as it should if you are speaking from a traditionalists' point of view.

Edited February 12, 2011 by damianslaw

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm hoping that the easterly comes off to silence the undercurrent of "we don't want any significant wintry spells pre-Christmas because if it turns very cold before Christmas it means the rest of the winter will be mild and snowless!"- we saw a lot of comments along those lines during late November/December, when the frequent references to November ice and ducks grew irritating, and this winter is giving the impression that they were right all along.

Some of the examples that I'm seeing in support of this theory are doubtful. For instance, 1965/66 may not have been an especially cold winter, but January and February were hardly lacking in snow events, with major easterly outbreaks in the middle of both months. 1993/94 is often quoted as an example of a cold November followed by a mild winter, but in reality it was mild only in the south (even there, most places had a bout of snow in mid February 1994), and parts of the northeast had their snowiest winter quarter of the 1992-2009 period.

I remember that we were getting similar comments on a regular basis during December 2009 and January 2010 on the basis that the cold and snow set in on 17 December rather than holding off until after Christmas, and they were proved wrong as the cold weather persisted through to mid-March although the snowy centrepiece of the winter was certainly 17 December-9 January.

I'm prepared to agree that cold and snow in November/December very rarely persists for the rest of the winter quarter (it would be like rolling three 20-sided dice and getting three 20s), and so serious wintry weather pre-Christmas is a bad sign for those desiring a winter of 1947 or 1963 type proportions. However, it's statistically quite common for it to be followed by fairly cold, wintry, mixed weather in January and February.

[AderynCoch]

Perhaps a more "spread out" winter (same quantity of cold & snow but spread evenly through Dec/Jan/Feb) would have had many people saying "but the one thing missing is a proper sub-zero month!"

That's exactly what I said last winter.

[Zakos]

The latest GFS Run shows a massive upgrade to the cold potential

[North-Easterly Blast]

Winter 1925-1926 is a little bit of analogy, to 2010-11. November-December 1925 was largely cold and the cold spell ended on Christmas Day 1925. After that, there was a short cold Scandinavian high spell mid month January 1926 but that was it. Even this was not enough to produce a below average January, the CET for that month ended up as 4.6C and the February was very mild with 6.8C

So after Christmas 1925, there was one short sharp cold spell but mild dominated January and February.

9th November-25th December 1925: 1.5C

23rd January-28th February 1926: 6.9C

Another so called pear-shaped winter.

Look at 1927-28. December 1927 was cold, colder than December 1995. You had the great Christmas snowstorm in the SE. Come New Year, zonality developed and both January and February were mild and stormy.

December 1937-38, December was cold and wintry at times but both January and February 1938 were on the mild side with limited cold. March and April were snow free.

I had thought of those too Kevin, but although those Decembers were pretty cold, none of those that you mention were anything like as cold as Dec 2010, so yes they did go pear shaped, but it wasn't as large a swing as this winter has turned out to be.

[sundog]

The thing that worried me back in Dec like others was maybe that would b our winter and we would not get such cold and snow again for the remainder,but i never expected it to be so snowless the way it has been since then. I would have liked the winter to have been spread out more but i love Dec because i love xmas and this yr it certainly was very festive to say the least. Xmas eve and xmas day were my perfect winter days,very cold,a heavy blanket of snow and clear skies.

The weather has been disappointing since xmas but i would IMO still rate this winter a success rather then a failure for cold lovers because Dec was such an epic month. I feel though that many will not see this winter as a success if we dont get some sort of a cold spell again before the winter is over and of course we are running out of time now but you never know what might happen between now and the end.

[North-Easterly Blast]

I'm hoping that the easterly comes off to silence the undercurrent of "we don't want any significant wintry spells pre-Christmas because if it turns very cold before Christmas it means the rest of the winter will be mild and snowless!"- we saw a lot of comments along those lines during late November/December, when the frequent references to November ice and ducks grew irritating, and this winter is giving the impression that they were right all along.

Some of the examples that I'm seeing in support of this theory are doubtful. For instance, 1965/66 may not have been an especially cold winter, but January and February were hardly lacking in snow events, with major easterly outbreaks in the middle of both months. 1993/94 is often quoted as an example of a cold November followed by a mild winter, but in reality it was mild only in the south (even there, most places had a bout of snow in mid February 1994), and parts of the northeast had their snowiest winter quarter of the 1992-2009 period.

I remember that we were getting similar comments on a regular basis during December 2009 and January 2010 on the basis that the cold and snow set in on 17 December rather than holding off until after Christmas, and they were proved wrong as the cold weather persisted through to mid-March although the snowy centrepiece of the winter was certainly 17 December-9 January.

I'm prepared to agree that cold and snow in November/December very rarely persists for the rest of the winter quarter (it would be like rolling three 20-sided dice and getting three 20s), and so serious wintry weather pre-Christmas is a bad sign for those desiring a winter of 1947 or 1963 type proportions. However, it's statistically quite common for it to be followed by fairly cold, wintry, mixed weather in January and February.

I am not saying that a severe winter overall is usually mild up to Xmas, but I think that somewhere in middle ground, getting a few short cold spells with the odd slight snowfall pre Xmas can be a good sign if you are looking for a very cold winter overall, but certainly anything on the scale of a prolonged extreme freeze up pre Xmas is a bad sign if you are looking for a cold or very cold winter overall. Generally winters that are cold for the most part, like 1962-63, 1939-40, 1978-79 tend to see the real cold developing around Xmas time, and a shorter cold spell or two pre Xmas but not a persistent freeze up. 1946-47 was a bit out of the statistical norm for a severe winter, in that the usual "pre Xmas" weather of a severe winter lasted until Jan 20th before the big freeze developed. The other way, 1916-17 actually was persistently cold right from the start of December, although less extreme than pre Xmas 2010.

[AderynCoch]

but certainly anything on the scale of a prolonged extreme freeze up pre Xmas is a bad sign if you are looking for a cold or very cold winter overall.

That's just not true though. Having that very cold December didn't make cold weather in January or February any less likely.

Severe cold developing early in the winter rarely sustains itself simply because sustained cold is very hard to achieve full stop.