Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

[damianslaw]

I see a few posters are rubbishing the way this winter has panned out. Although I too have been largely dissapointed with conditions since christmas -I do feel our expectations for the rest of the winter may have been raised more higher this winter than ever - given th exceptional conditions from late nov to christmas and also the very cold weather of mid dec 09 - mid jan 10 and the first half of Feb 09.

Whilst January saw very little snow for many, it wasn't too bad in terms of cold weather with many frosts. Scotland and N Ireland were largely cold during January - so taking Dec and Jan together I think for those lets say north of Leeds this winter in the main will go down as a good one - with just a poor February. Further south, Jan was less inspiring hence 2 poor months will cancel out the exceptional 4 week spell from late nov till christmas.

This February so far has been preety dire I have to admit - not only in terms of lack of snowfall and frost but also in terms of endless rain and cloudy days. It has reminded me of the like of Feb 02 and 98 other months dominated by tropical maritime air (so far). At least the next 4-5 days will see polar air dominating at least in the north so it won't be classed quite as poorly as those Febs - perhaps more similiar to Feb 04 and 07 in this respect (04 seeing polar air in the last week and 07 in the second week with some widespread snow).

Though March is classed as Spring - I do wonder how people may rate this 'winter season' as a whole if we are to see some renewed very cold snowy weather. I am reading many mixed messages for March some saying it will continue where Feb left off, others saying a cold one is on the cards..

[sebastiaan1973]

The key thing to understand with La Ninas in November and December is that they will actively support whatever the dominant signal is going into the winter. However, turn the year and they actively destroy any -NAO / -AO signal. This year I've been very impressed with the robustness of the -NAO inspite of this strong Nina, which can only auger well going forward into next winter.

My list of favoured ENSO states for a cold winter would be:

Strong El Nino

Moderate El Nino

Weak El Nino

(get the gist here?)

Neutral

Weak / moderate Nina

Strong Nina

I cannot stress enough though that our definition of Nina / Nino must be in terms of the atmospheric response such as the Multivariant ENSO Index and GLAAM.

Stewart, I just wonder how you came to this list of your favoured ENSO states? E.g. 1998 we witnessed a very strong EL Nino event, and the winter of 1998 was not cold at all. So this is an exception? What's the idea behind it? And can you please tell us something about your surprise about the strong negative NAO/AO this winter and what's the idea for the meaning of this for next winter? Thanking you in advance! I'm so curious.

[Alex95]

I've said it before, but 16 inches of snow in November is a feat which probably won't be repeated in my lifetime. Looking at December alone, there was around 4 inches at the start and 4 inches just before Christmas, then a light covering in January, so this winter has seen just two 4 inch falls and one half inch fall. However, at the start of December there was still almost a foot and a half lying from the continuous snow showers of late November.

Oh the memories What a start to winter!

And then there was the thundersnow...

Edited February 14, 2011 by alza

[virtualsphere]

A winter has got to be far from a cracking winter or a classic if it has an exceptional cold spell alongside two thirds of the winter seeing next to nothing and a prolonged spell of mild weather in another month, surely it is more of a case of a winter having an exceptional cold spell with the rest of it not special or even poor.

A very good point. I know November's not technically part of the calendar winter, but considering the depth of the cold at the end of November and the snow some parts received it felt a lot like winter.. and if the whole cold period had been shifted forward slightly so the last 1 - 2 weeks of November were at the beginning of December instead it would have been almost half of the winter season. January was nondescript and certainly nothing to remember for snow lovers - but it was one of the colder Januarys we've had in the last couple of decades. In a way I suppose I should have said a cracking December, but somehow I feel this isn't doing it justice.

Definitely winter 2009-10 is certainly considered a cracking winter, and certainly the best since at least the mid 1980s, with a prolonged cold spell from mid-Dec to mid-January and a colder than average February too, and cold spread throughout most of the winter even persisting up until mid-March, and very little of that winter saw significant mild or otherwise next to nothing. Winter 2008-09 although not especially cold still had cold spells frequently occurring through the winter and it was mid-Feb before it faded away.

Yes - I'd agree with 2009-10 as more exciting on average as this year taking the whole winter season, and particularly notable for the lack of any mild weather. For me 2008-09 wasn't as good as this winter, but it probably depends on your location. We had a great snowy spell in early February 2009 but it wasn't as good as December 2010 and didn't last as long. The other thing I enjoyed about December was just how cold it was - and to go colder than January, which was remarkable at the time, made it even more special.

I would definitely put winter 2010-11 as the most pear shaped winter in UK weather history; a more extreme version of the other pear shaped winters of 1996-97, 1927-28, 1925-26 and 1917-18, which quickly deteriorated into rubbish after early cold spells on a lesser scale than Dec 2010. Whilst 1962-63 may be among the most famously cold winters ever, surely winter 2010-11 is as pear shaped on an equally extreme level if not more so than 1962-63 was in terms of sustained cold.

Definitely, and that's interesting in its own right. It's probably harder to go from a subzero December to 6-7C in February than to continue colder than average. But I can understand the frustration of going from such a promising starting point and not being able to have a shot at equalling a winter like 1962-63.

Having just looked into the model thread it may not be over just yet!

[knocker]

Definitely, and that's interesting in its own right. It's probably harder to go from a subzero December to 6-7C in February than to continue colder than average. But I can understand the frustration of going from such a promising starting point and not being able to have a shot at equalling a winter like 1962-63.

Having just looked into the model thread it may not be over just yet!

I assume you were not around for the 1962-63 winter because nobody in their right mind would want a repeat. Leaving out my own personal expereances the social aspects were appalling.

Edited February 14, 2011 by weather ship

[Weather-history]

When people are complaining about the pear-shapedness of this winter are they complaining more so about the lack of snow than the cold?

Take January 2011. It was colder than 17 Januarys since 1987 for the CET, it was colder than 6 of the 1960s Januarys. (Some food for thought.)

Would there be so much complaint if say January had a CET of 4.5 but snowfalls were more frequent, there were more short lived snow covers? Something like January 1995?

I suspect not.

Edited February 15, 2011 by Mr_Data

[johnholmes]

I assume you were not around for the 1962-63 winter because nobody in their right mind would want a repeat. Leaving out my own personal expereances the social aspects were appalling.

I totally agree. December 2010 nearly brought the country to a standstill, and some think having similar through January and February a good idea.

Like you Fred having worked through 1962-63 never again thank you. Todays' infrastructure would find it almost impossible to cope with that length of cold and snow.

[Ladyofthestorm]

Looking at the charts, Europe still looks decidely chilly, I cant see any signs of Spring yet? Today woke up to yet more dusting of snow... had at least one episode of wintriness every week, and we live on the palm tree coast! lol

The ECM is picking up a slack NLy flow on the lastest run, it will be interesting to see what it brings in the next few days.

All in all a chilly end to feb, maybe not snow but decidely wintry.

[AderynCoch]

I totally agree. December 2010 nearly brought the country to a standstill, and some think having similar through January and February a good idea.

Like you Fred having worked through 1962-63 never again thank you. Todays' infrastructure would find it almost impossible to cope with that length of cold and snow.

I can't speak for 1962/63, but if you could offer me a repeat of December 2010 all over again I'd bite your arm off in an instant. Maybe I would get fed up and say "never again" if it went on as long as 1963, but there's no way of knowing unless it were to actually occur (I'm a complete cold masochist in winter, so maybe I'm the exception).

Edited February 15, 2011 by AderynCoch

[Tucco]

Much rather have Dec 2009, than Dec 2010. 09/10 winter was prolonged and snowy esp in term of days lying around here. No travel distribution after the first few days of December this year. What this winter has certainly lacked even in cold spell in Dec has been a wind snow combination. A true blizzard in England and Wales has not occurred for many years.

[Thundery wintry showers]

There is a small minority out there who enjoyed 1962/63, including some whose interest in meteorology was inspired by that winter- I've seen a few letters written in "Weather" over the years demonstrating this.

I can't be sure of whether I would have enjoyed 1962/63 or not, because I used to say I probably wouldn't enjoy a sub zero CET month, and then I did in December 2010. In my experience, if I end up snowed in for a significant length of time, snow causes sufficient disruption to make supplies a problem for a significant length of time, or snow turns to rock-solid ice and sticks around for a significant length of time, then that's when I start to think that enough is enough. Thus, the assessment depends on whether or not 1962/63 crossed any of those thresholds. Going by reports from the North East, it probably did in that area of the country by February.

When people are complaining about the pear-shapedness of this winter are they complaining more so about the lack of snow than the cold?

Take January 2011. It was colder than 17 Januarys since 1987 for the CET, it was colder than 6 of the 1960s Januarys. (Some food for thought.)

Would there be so much complaint if say January had a CET of 4.5 but snowfalls were more frequent, there were more short lived snow covers? Something like January 1995?

I suspect not.

I completely agree with you on that point.

[Snowyowl9]

2 days this month so far with this morning`s earlier sleet and cold SE wind 4c now.

Edit:it was feb 1997 the only month here with no settling snow but 4 days falling wintry showers.

Edited February 15, 2011 by Snowyowl9

[greybing]

When people are complaining about the pear-shapedness of this winter are they complaining more so about the lack of snow than the cold?

Take January 2011. It was colder than 17 Januarys since 1987 for the CET, it was colder than 6 of the 1960s Januarys. (Some food for thought.)

Would there be so much complaint if say January had a CET of 4.5 but snowfalls were more frequent, there were more short lived snow covers? Something like January 1995?

I suspect not.

I agree with your point.For me ,though the cold was great ,I wanted snow like that in parts of the of the north east.

I can't speak for 1962/63, but if you could offer me a repeat of December 2010 all over again I'd bite your arm off in an instant. Maybe I would get fed up and say "never again" if it went on as long as 1963, but there's no way of knowing unless it were to actually occur (I'm a complete cold masochist in winter, so maybe I'm the exception).

I have no central heating or hot water yet I always want the coldest british weather has to offer in winter.I suppose there is the limit,the one where I would die .

Edited February 15, 2011 by greybing

[North-Easterly Blast]

Had January 2011 followed on from many recent far less cold Decembers I would say that Jan 2011 would have felt like a respectable month in terms of cold. It may have been colder than many Januarys in the last 24 years but coming on the back of such an exceptional pre Xmas freeze up it felt on the mild side.

Nontheless, no-one can deny the fact that this winter is THE most pear shaped winter ever recorded since records began in 1659, or since daily records began in 1772. By a pear shaped winter I mean that a winter that starts off good with promise to be a classic or at least severe overall, and quickly fades away into nothing by at least mid-point and more so when it fades into nothing on Dec 27th, or even switches to the opposite extreme like how this February is panning out. 1996-97, 1927-28, 1925-26 and 1917-18 were all pear shaped winters although the earlier season cold in those winters was certainly nothing like pre Xmas 2010, so they were not quite the extent of the pear shapedness of this winter.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I would nominate 1988/89 the most pear-shaped winter ever, in that cold weather set in during November (albeit not as extreme as late November 2010) with widespread snowfalls around the 20th, and then an abrupt pattern change arose in the first week of December leaving Mr Bartlett in charge of our weather until mid February. Although late February 1989 had some marginal snow events, even then, low-lying areas typically saw no more than the odd short-lived accumulation on the ground.

As far as snow lovers are concerned, surely three very mild months with just one week of marginal snow events is more of a disaster than one exceptionally cold month with numerous snowfalls for many, one cool but largely snowless month and one very mild month?

[damianslaw]

Two other recent winters which started off on a very positive note but which degenerated into nothingness were 1996/97 and 2001/2002.

1996/97 -

The second half of November saw alot of cold weather and in some places quite snowy weather though nothing on the scale of late Nov 10, we then saw a generally cold December with many frosts though it never became particularly cold nor snowy until after christmas. Jan 97 began on a very cold note with some further mostly light snow, then after a snow turned rain event around the 11th conditions became much milder and the atlantic won back for the rest of the winter with hardly any snow reports and little frost. Indeed the three months of Feb, Mar and Apr were very mild indeed.

2001/2001 - A less cold version of 96/97. After an preety average Nov, December began on an average note but became quite wintry at times mid month and leading up to christmas with some snow in places, though nothing exceptional. The christmas and new year period were cold and in some places very cold with some mostly light snow. The opening five days of 2002 were very cold with hard frost, then we saw a major change as the atlantic rushed in and dominated the rest of the winter with hardly any snow reported or frost.

1992/93 - an even less toned down version of the above, but another peared shaped one due to the fact the coldest weather was reserved for the second half of Dec. Another oen was 99/00, lots of wintry weather in the lead up to christmas that winter and not much thereafter.

Compared to these winters, Late Nov and Dec 10 being overall far more severe and also a fairly cold January certainly in my book shouldn't be classed as the 'worst pear-shaped winter ever'.

[North-Easterly Blast]

I would nominate 1988/89 the most pear-shaped winter ever, in that cold weather set in during November (albeit not as extreme as late November 2010) with widespread snowfalls around the 20th, and then an abrupt pattern change arose in the first week of December leaving Mr Bartlett in charge of our weather until mid February. Although late February 1989 had some marginal snow events, even then, low-lying areas typically saw no more than the odd short-lived accumulation on the ground.

As far as snow lovers are concerned, surely three very mild months with just one week of marginal snow events is more of a disaster than one exceptionally cold month with numerous snowfalls for many, one cool but largely snowless month and one very mild month?

Winter 1988-89 was not exactly pear shaped - it had some cold weather in November although mainly from high pressure and frosts, some areas saw some snow around the 20th although nothing like late Nov 2010 or 1993. Things were going downhill in the closing days of November that year, and winter 1988-89 although one of the mildest on record never promised anything special once December began.

A pear shaped winter is one that sees some good cold spells early on to deteriorate into nothing for most of the winter, like this year.

[Weather-history]

Things were going downhill in the closing days of November that year, and winter 1988-89 although one of the mildest on record never promised anything special once December began.

.

Strange comment since December 1985 and 1986 were very mild but both deliver spells that are still talked about ala Feb 86 and Jan 87. So at the time, I bet people would have pointed these out as very recent examples not to write winter off just yet.

Dec 1984 wasn't special neither and that follwed a very mild November.

[AderynCoch]

Surely a winter can also be pear-shaped if the cold congregates towards February instead of December, like 1852/53 (Dec = 7.7, Jan = 5.1, Feb = 0.6) . Then there's the hourglass winter (cold start and end with mild middle, or vice-versa): 1995/96 followed this pattern to an extent.

I have no central heating or hot water yet I always want the coldest british weather has to offer in winter.I suppose there is the limit,the one where I would die .

I had no heating either during the depths of last winter and nor did the shower work. Thank God the bath was still functioning: cold showers are just horrific at any time of year!

[Snowyowl9]

This winter did have it`s positives,coldest spell I`ve recorded,coldest night and days and 3 ice days from a west or even SW wind 2 days with powdery drifting from the same direction exceptional!!!!!!

13..1/2 inches in total 10 days drifting 30 days total snowcover.

1996-97 is about the closest match for snow and timing similar to this winter...november gave the heaviest snowfall of that winter with 8inches but there was that stonking blizzard it was mainly a hill event.

December/January with an extra 4...1/2 inches and powdery snow from an easterly 9 days drifting and another 30 days snowcover.

2000-01 well bulk of that winter came end of feb,March.

January was cold but not much snow,end of december 2000 was pretty snowy.

As for 85-86 no competion,always keep the best till last.

February snowcover all month.

All in all this looks like being the most bizzare winter ever.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Two other recent winters which started off on a very positive note but which degenerated into nothingness were 1996/97 and 2001/2002.

1996/97 -

The second half of November saw alot of cold weather and in some places quite snowy weather though nothing on the scale of late Nov 10, we then saw a generally cold December with many frosts though it never became particularly cold nor snowy until after christmas. Jan 97 began on a very cold note with some further mostly light snow, then after a snow turned rain event around the 11th conditions became much milder and the atlantic won back for the rest of the winter with hardly any snow reports and little frost. Indeed the three months of Feb, Mar and Apr were very mild indeed.

2001/2001 - A less cold version of 96/97. After an preety average Nov, December began on an average note but became quite wintry at times mid month and leading up to christmas with some snow in places, though nothing exceptional. The christmas and new year period were cold and in some places very cold with some mostly light snow. The opening five days of 2002 were very cold with hard frost, then we saw a major change as the atlantic rushed in and dominated the rest of the winter with hardly any snow reported or frost.

1992/93 - an even less toned down version of the above, but another peared shaped one due to the fact the coldest weather was reserved for the second half of Dec. Another oen was 99/00, lots of wintry weather in the lead up to christmas that winter and not much thereafter.

Compared to these winters, Late Nov and Dec 10 being overall far more severe and also a fairly cold January certainly in my book shouldn't be classed as the 'worst pear-shaped winter ever'.

I wouldn't put 1992-93 in the pear shaped list. It saw a generally mild and unsettled first half to December, then a cold but snowless second half due to an anticyclonic block sat over the UK giving surface cold and not deep cold Arctic air. January was a very mild month after the opening days, but February was less mild but anticyclonic and dry, and a little snow from a northerly at the end of the month. Doesen't really fit the pattern of 96-97, 01-02 etc. I wouldn't say that 99-2000 fits the pear shaped pattern either, December was still on the mild side of the current seasonal average although saw a number of polar maritime incursions with some snow although nothing major. Jan 2000 saw a similar CET but Feb 2000 was a very mild month. You are right that Jan and Feb 2000 were indeed snowless for many.

2001-02 did see a milder but similar pattern to 96-97. Nov 2001 was a dry and fairly mild month, but Dec 2001 was mostly cold and anticyclonic with frequent frosts although it never became particularly cold until the closing three days, when severe frosts were widespread. Xmas 2001 I will say was actually not particularly cold, and not as cold as some think, temps were still not far from average up to the 28th. The coldest period of that winter was from Dec 29th to Jan 4th, although the cold 01-02 produced up to that point was far behind what 96-97 had produced, and certainly no comparison with what pre Xmas 2010 was like. You are right about the rest of that winter, it was rubbish, and in fact I will point out that the spell Jan 13th to Feb 12th saw the mildest 30 day period ever in Jan / Feb, with a CET of 8*C, which even exceeds the mildness of the calendar months of Jan 1916 / 1921, Feb 1990 / 1998 and even 1779.

Edited February 15, 2011 by North-Easterly Blast

[North-Easterly Blast]

Strange comment since December 1985 and 1986 were very mild but both deliver spells that are still talked about ala Feb 86 and Jan 87. So at the time, I bet people would have pointed these out as very recent examples not to write winter off just yet.

Dec 1984 wasn't special neither and that follwed a very mild November.

Dec 1985 was very mild up to Xmas but actually a cold spell developed around Boxing Day that lasted until Jan 9th 1986, which was the first cold spell of that winter after the cold Nov 1985. Dec 1986 was largely mild also after a pretty mild November although there was a short northerly toppler from the 19th to 23rd that gave a little snow to higher parts of the country. Despite how mild some say Decembers 1985 and 1986 were, they wern't even any of the top 20 mildest Decembers on record.

[Weather-history]

Dec 1985 was very mild up to Xmas but actually a cold spell developed around Boxing Day that lasted until Jan 9th 1986, which was the first cold spell of that winter after the cold Nov 1985. Dec 1986 was largely mild also after a pretty mild November although there was a short northerly toppler from the 19th to 23rd that gave a little snow to higher parts of the country. Despite how mild some say Decembers 1985 and 1986 were, they wern't even any of the top 20 mildest Decembers on record.

Sometimes I think you completely miss the point with some people posts. Forget the stats and the detail analysis and just look at the bare basic point here which was how could you have known at the time that you could write winter 1988-89 off during the December, when there were two recent examples of mild Decembers that preceded noted cold spells? The answer is you couldn't.

[Weather-history]

It looks as though another winter is going by without a major gale event that affected a large part of the UK. When a major gale event I mean something like Jan 1990, Jan 1991, Jan and Dec 1993 etc, a spell of really severe gales.

I'm struggling to remember the last occasion, something like this

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00119981227.gif

Edited February 16, 2011 by Mr_Data

[reef]

It looks as though another winter is going by without a major gale event that affected a large part of the UK. When a major gale event I mean something like Jan 1990, Jan 1991, Jan and Dec 1993 etc, a spell of really severe gales.

I'm struggling to remember the last occasion, something like this

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00119981227.gif

The last good one I can remember is this:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00120050108.gif

Ill always remember it because I was in B&Q's Car Park at the time doing some shopping and you could see the gust front coming over the Humber. It looked like a fog moving quickly over the river. Ive no idea of the speed of the gust as it blew my anemometer down but it was easily over 80mph - especially as it managed to knock most of us in the car park over when it arrived!