Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

[Thundery wintry showers]

Cold zonality will definitely return in the future- the only problem is, it probably won't be quite as cold as it used to be, because of the general upward trend in global temperatures, which is significant because cold zonal setups have always been very marginal for falling & lying snow south of the Scottish border. However, for those of us who enjoy those setups for the active weather, squally showers and towering Cb cells as much as the snow, it won't render them uninteresting- just perhaps not quite as exciting than they were in the past.

Zonality has always defaulted to SW-NE over the UK (the default position of the PV is near Iceland/Greenland, pressure tends to be higher over the continent and we have the Gulf Stream as well), it is easy to pinpoint and remember cold zonal months of the past but they were always the exception rather than the rule. The Southern Hemisphere has less secondary low development and a large emphasis on showery westerlies, but on the other hand they don't get the high latitude blocks that contribute to the variety of weather that we get in north-west Europe.

I do have fantasies about what an ideal climate for me would be like, but in the real world we just have to take what we're given, for after all the weather is one thing that we definitely can't do anything about. I'm generally in two minds regarding the UK climate- on one hand we have one of the most varied climates in the world and the UK is capable of receiving almost every type of weather that there is (compare and contrast tropical climates for instance), but on the other, many of the varieties of weather that I most enjoy don't occur as frequently as I would like. Overall, though, I think that for interesting weather overall, most of us would struggle to place the UK outside of the top 20% of countries in the world.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Cold zonality will definitely return in the future- the only problem is, it probably won't be quite as cold as it used to be, because of the general upward trend in global temperatures, which is significant because cold zonal setups have always been very marginal for falling & lying snow south of the Scottish border. However, for those of us who enjoy those setups for the active weather, squally showers and towering Cb cells as much as the snow, it won't render them uninteresting- just perhaps not quite as exciting than they were in the past.

Zonality has always defaulted to SW-NE over the UK (the default position of the PV is near Iceland/Greenland, pressure tends to be higher over the continent and we have the Gulf Stream as well), it is easy to pinpoint and remember cold zonal months of the past but they were always the exception rather than the rule. The Southern Hemisphere has less secondary low development and a large emphasis on showery westerlies, but on the other hand they don't get the high latitude blocks that contribute to the variety of weather that we get in north-west Europe.

I do have fantasies about what an ideal climate for me would be like, but in the real world we just have to take what we're given, for after all the weather is one thing that we definitely can't do anything about. I'm generally in two minds regarding the UK climate- on one hand we have one of the most varied climates in the world and the UK is capable of receiving almost every type of weather that there is (compare and contrast tropical climates for instance), but on the other, many of the varieties of weather that I most enjoy don't occur as frequently as I would like. Overall, though, I think that for interesting weather overall, most of us would struggle to place the UK outside of the top 20% of countries in the world.

Very good points. I think that on a number of occasions cold zonality has delivered snow to higher parts in particular of areas from the Pennines northwards, but yes, unless polar maritime air sustains for long enough in the flow it is very difficult to get falling and settling snow at low levels especially south of the Scottish Border.

What is the reason why zonality defaults to a flat jet and a SW-NE track over the UK? This is the main reason why we get tropical maritime air - it only needs lower heights over the continent and a more NW-SE track of the zonal flow - then there is far more in the way of polar maritime air in the circulation - my point is that it is only the orientation that makes zonality mild in the UK.

In many respects we are lucky to have one of the most varied climates in the world, although in many of the last 23 years our climate has produced little in the way winter cold, frost and snow. I do like many aspects of the UK climate, although the last 23 years in the main have lacked winter cold overall, and most winters have been milder than the long term average, apart from the likes of 1990-91, 1995-96, 2008-09, 2009-10, and the start of this pear shaped winter. The main thing that I dislike about the British climate is mild zonality in winter, and our climate would be far better if things worked better in our favour to give us more zonality of the cold variety.

[damianslaw]

Cold zonality tends to occur more often in spring than winter - as the atlantic tends to become much more amplified during sprng thanks to weakening Polar vortex. It is a well known fact northerlies and easterlies reach their yearly maxim during spring, hence I always think it a bonus to see any sustained period of cold zonality during the winter. You need a favourable azores high to get cold zonality and in winter its default position is normally towards France and Spain as opposed to elongating in NW-SE position.

Back to this winter, yes Feb so far has been very disspointing, but I will say for here in Cumbria it has been a good winter, with an excellent Late Nov and Dec, and a not half bad Jan - though very poor snow.

I do agree that the wet atlantic spells since early Jan have been of the grey low cloud type and have made for very miserable conditions and a longing for the summer sunshine!

[reef]

Its certainly been a winter of two halves here:

Winter Index for each half of winter:

1st Dec - 14th Jan: 179

15th Jan - 19th Feb: 9 (so far)

The first half is close to Winter 2009/10 which had a value of 197. The latter half is similar to 1988/89 which had a value of 8.

Overall its a pretty good winter with a current value of 125 (beaten only by 1995/96 and 2009/10 in the last 23 years), but it shows how average figures can hide extremes at both ends of the spectrum.

[Weather-history]

Manchester winter index currently 125

3 consecutive winters of an index of 100+

Last happened 1985 to 1987.

Although February 2011 has been devoid of any real wintriness here and January was mediocre for cold and snow, I personally think this winter around here is better than winter 1986-87. December was far colder and snowier than January 1987 was, there was snow on ground for 19 days during that month compare to only 7 for Jan '87.

I can't remember anything about February 1987 and December 1986 was zonal with a short cold spell just before Christmas which was nowt special.

People bemoaning that it went pear-shaped should realise how it could have turned out ala 1988-89, which had a cold spell in November but then then was followed by a winter almost devoid of anything that was remotely wintry. Winter 1988-89 coincided with a strong La Nina and there must have been fears of another repeat. If they had a choice, they would grab 2010-2011 with both hands than 1988-89.

The people who I think justify in complaining are those who had the very cold but missed out on the snow. I think Manchester saw more snow and lying at that during that late November-early December spell than some parts of east Anglia and east Midlands who you would think be more favourable in such a flow. That was a real kick in the teeth for snow lovers in that region.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I agree with Kevin's assessment. I remember that late November/early December spell well- on the one hand it was great being able to closely follow such an exceptional spell in the Tyne and Wear area but, indeed, a real kick in the teeth being stuck in a narrow dry strip in Norwich at the same time, despite it being a well-known Norwich snow setup and repeated GFS/NAE forecasts for the snow showers to extend south through East Anglia within 12-18 hours.

I came up to Tyneside for Christmas when they had another notable snowy spell, not quite as exciting as the late November/early December one but not too far off, and that made up for it as far as I was concerned, but I heard that Norwich again largely missed out, with just an inch which had largely thawed by Christmas Eve, so all in all a big disappointment for snow lovers in the Norwich area.

I certainly agree with the comparison with 1988/89, and also 1986/87- the only major event of that winter, really, was the big easterly on 11-14 January, and limited areas of the country largely missed out on that event (e.g. NW Lancashire) just as limited areas largely missed out on the two major November/December 2010 events.

[damianslaw]

For many winter 2010/2011 has been much better than 1986/87 in terms of length and cold and snow - though not quite as extreme as conditions in mid jan in terms of temps. However, those in east anglia and the southeast may disagree as the jan 87 was exceptional in these parts and these areas largely missed out on any significant snow this winter of real cold.

For north east, east, central, south east scotland and ne england, much of east,south yorkshire, nottinghamshire/parts of derbyshire and lincolnshire the late nov/early dec 2010 was exceptional, better than mid jan 87 in terms of amounts of snow and the length of cold.

For south west england, south and west midlands, south and east wales, northern ireland, and the west country, merseyside, berkshire/surrey/sussex and west lancashire the period between 17-25 dec was quite exceptional these parts seeing much more snow than the rest of the country.

However, for much of NW Scotland, CN/W/SW Scotland, Cumbria, Lancashire, Greater Manchester, most of north and east midlands away from derbyshire/nottinghamshire, east anglia, london and home counties away from berkshire/surrey, kent, central south england away from dorset, north/west and sw wales, late nov10/dec 10 was nothing that exceptional in terms of snowfall, indeed the spell between mid dec09-mid jan 10 was much better. It was the length and depth of cold which was exceptional.

This winter as is the norm will be remembered by some as exceptional for snow amounts, but for others nothing that exceptional - here for instance the most snow we saw from a single fall was 5 inches, and during most of december we only had an average depth of 2 inches at best. I've known a few Marches which delivered more snow from a single fall, the last one being March 06.

[reef]

Manchester winter index currently 125

3 consecutive winters of an index of 100+

Last happened 1985 to 1987.

Although February 2011 has been devoid of any real wintriness here and January was mediocre for cold and snow, I personally think this winter around here is better than winter 1986-87. December was far colder and snowier than January 1987 was, there was snow on ground for 19 days during that month compare to only 7 for Jan '87.

I can't remember anything about February 1987 and December 1986 was zonal with a short cold spell just before Christmas which was nowt special.

People bemoaning that it went pear-shaped should realise how it could have turned out ala 1988-89, which had a cold spell in November but then then was followed by a winter almost devoid of anything that was remotely wintry. Winter 1988-89 coincided with a strong La Nina and there must have been fears of another repeat. If they had a choice, they would grab 2010-2011 with both hands than 1988-89.

The people who I think justify in complaining are those who had the very cold but missed out on the snow. I think Manchester saw more snow and lying at that during that late November-early December spell than some parts of east Anglia and east Midlands who you would think be more favourable in such a flow. That was a real kick in the teeth for snow lovers in that region.

Indeed, even with the poor January and February in regards to snowfall it has still been an exceptional winter here. For lying snow, this winter is the best Ive ever recorded with 24 days in total. The second winter on the list with 21 days is 2009/10. Despite a rather mild February, the winter mean temp here is still 1.1C below the 1971-2000 average (4th coldest since 1988). Its also the 4th frostiest winter since 1982 aswell.

In isolation, both November and December were the snowiest (falling and lying) and most thundery Ive ever recorded - though February is the most snowless. From a weather enthusiasts point of view I find it very interesting, as Im a great lover of extremes.

There was a real worry of it being another 1988/89 as you say. My early thoughts were of a winter similar to 2007/08 with a combination of a cool/average December and very mild January and February. Fortunately we ended up sub-zero CET December - something Im very pleased to have experienced. They dont come along often after all!

[spindrift1980]

ntry.

However, for much of NW Scotland, CN/W/SW Scotland, Cumbria, Lancashire, Greater Manchester, most of north and east midlands away from derbyshire/nottinghamshire, east anglia, london and home counties away from berkshire/surrey, kent, central south england away from dorset, north/west and sw wales, late nov10/dec 10 was nothing that exceptional in terms of snowfall, indeed the spell between mid dec09-mid jan 10 was much better. It was the length and depth of cold which was exceptional.

Can't agree with that at all as far as west-central Scotland was concened. Both the spells you mention were exceptional for the length and depth of cold and sheer number of lying snow days in these parts, but Nov 2010 and Dec 2010 (in fact, in to the early stages of January 2011) brought a lot more snow to most parts of the region than mid Dec 2009 to mid Jan 2010. Barring a couple of slightly milder interludes there was an almost complete lack of marginality in the early stages of this winter as far as snow vs. sleet/rain was concerned.

Edited February 20, 2011 by spindrift1980

[Tucco]

Here the late November snowfalls weren't as severe as winter 2010 and very similar to Feb 2009. Though both these spells were more distributive due to more drifting.

Regarding Jan 1987. The conditions were more severe in terms of snow in eastern Cumbria than any of the above spells. I would swap that spell for any since.

[Optimus Prime]

This winter would had been more 80s style had December come in at 6.9c (assuming that's what this month will finish on) January 3.7c and February -0.7c.

December 6.9c

January 3.7c

February -0.7c

That makes much more sense.

[Snowyowl9]

To put this winter in memory only 7 days really stick out as I can remember,it`s all merging.

Lots of snowcover but sunny days mostly.

1996-97...9 days incl May`s snow.

2005-06 for some reason I can remember 14 days,must be unique,and not that long ago.

The most days that stick out are.

1985 Jan and more especially feb 20 days.

1986 Late Jan/feb to and incl april 22 days.

Here the late November snowfalls weren't as severe as winter 2010 and very similar to Feb 2009. Though both these spells were more distributive due to more drifting.

Regarding Jan 1987. The conditions were more severe in terms of snow in eastern Cumbria than any of the above spells. I would swap that spell for any since.

There was more drifting last year at times stronger winds,drifts this year were smaller to a normal winter.

Even feb 2007 gave much bigger drifts.

Now January 1987 gave that ultra rare very light fluffy snow,and a blizzard beforehand.

Feb 1991 was really the last with such cold uppers,and a lesser blizzard not of the scale to 87.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looks like some maximum temperature records could be broken at some Irish stations over the next few day.

Here's the link the the link for the stations monthly maxima records http://met.ie/climate-ireland/extreme_maxtemps.pdf

And here are the current temperatures http://met.ie/latest/reports.asp

[greybing]

Manchester winter index currently 125

3 consecutive winters of an index of 100+

Last happened 1985 to 1987.

Although February 2011 has been devoid of any real wintriness here and January was mediocre for cold and snow, I personally think this winter around here is better than winter 1986-87. December was far colder and snowier than January 1987 was, there was snow on ground for 19 days during that month compare to only 7 for Jan '87.

I can't remember anything about February 1987 and December 1986 was zonal with a short cold spell just before Christmas which was nowt special.

People bemoaning that it went pear-shaped should realise how it could have turned out ala 1988-89, which had a cold spell in November but then then was followed by a winter almost devoid of anything that was remotely wintry. Winter 1988-89 coincided with a strong La Nina and there must have been fears of another repeat. If they had a choice, they would grab 2010-2011 with both hands than 1988-89.

The people who I think justify in complaining are those who had the very cold but missed out on the snow. I think Manchester saw more snow and lying at that during that late November-early December spell than some parts of east Anglia and east Midlands who you would think be more favourable in such a flow. That was a real kick in the teeth for snow lovers in that region.

LIving in my part of low level Manchester I did not see much in the way of snow ,so yes ,this was a disappointment.The cold was cool, [no pun intended],but more snow would have been great.

I was wondering ,where in Greater Manchester are there any frost bowls ,if any.Also does anybody know the coldest and or snowiest part,[i know they may not be the same part],of Greater Manchester on average.Thanks.

Edited February 23, 2011 by greybing

[Jay Lad]

LIving in my part of low level Manchester I did not see much in the way of snow ,so yes ,this was a disappointment.The cold was cool, [no pun intended],but more snow would have been great.

I was wondering ,where in Greater Manchester are there any frost bowls ,if any.Also does anybody know the coldest and or snowiest part,[i know they may not be the same part],of Greater Manchester on average.Thanks.

Usually the coldest part of Greater Manchester for minimum temperatures is around the area where the coldest temperature of last winter occured so probably around the area of Woodford near Stockport, the cold filters down off the Pennines over that particular area which sharply falls in elevation, also it is not in the busy city centre, the city centre and nearby being low down should be a frost bowl but with the warmth from the thousands of buildings it obviously isn't.

The snowiest part of Greater Manchester is most of the time reserved to the NE part, particularly the villages of Saddleworth, the villages of Diggle and Denshaw would be a sure fire bet for the snowiest award. The boroughs of Oldham, Rochdale and Tameside coming not far behind., also these areas are usually colder with the maximum temperatures throughout the year on average in Gtr Manchester. We have a very varied climate to say the least!

Edited February 24, 2011 by Jay Lad

[Weather-history]

LIving in my part of low level Manchester I did not see much in the way of snow ,so yes ,this was a disappointment.The cold was cool, [no pun intended],but more snow would have been great.

I was wondering ,where in Greater Manchester are there any frost bowls ,if any.Also does anybody know the coldest and or snowiest part,[i know they may not be the same part],of Greater Manchester on average.Thanks.

Having said that what snow that fell, lay for some length.

Where I live, is a frost bowl on the border of Chat Moss. Quite often we get a frost and nowhere else gets one and sometimes we get snow and nowhere else gets anything and we are low ground.

Look at these photos just a couple of hundred yards from where I live and this was caused by a local snowfall that nowhere else experienced.

[greybing]

Usually the coldest part of Greater Manchester for minimum temperatures is around the area where the coldest temperature of last winter occured so probably around the area of Woodford near Stockport, the cold filters down off the Pennines over that particular area which sharply falls in elevation, also it is not in the busy city centre, the city centre and nearby being low down should be a frost bowl but with the warmth from the thousands of buildings it obviously isn't.

The snowiest part of Greater Manchester is most of the time reserved to the NE part, particularly the villages of Saddleworth, the villages of Diggle and Denshaw would be a sure fire bet for the snowiest award. The boroughs of Oldham, Rochdale and Tameside coming not far behind., also these areas are usually colder with the maximum temperatures throughout the year on average in Gtr Manchester. We have a very varied climate to say the least!

Yes ,you are probably right .Considering the snowiest parts of Manchester ,I asked which were the snowiest ,low level parts of Manchester but in retrospect this question seems a little daft as I imagine most of low level Manchester has much the same in amounts of snow.The areas you spoke of ,Saddleworth etc are most definately very snowy .Saddleworth and chew valley having the highest point in Greater Manchester contributing to its snowienesss.

Having said that what snow that fell, lay for some length.

Where I live, is a frost bowl on the border of Chat Moss. Quite often we get a frost and nowhere else gets one and sometimes we get snow and nowhere else gets anything and we are low ground.

Look at these photos just a couple of hundred yards from where I live and this was caused by a local snowfall that nowhere else experienced.

http://forum.netweat...ter-wonderland/

You lucky sod.Those pictures are exceptionally beautiful though chat moss is generally nice [once you get passed the dumped washing machines ane such].The snow that fell will have most probably lasted a fair bit longer there than where I am.

Edited February 24, 2011 by greybing

[Alex95]

Some people have been disappointed with the way this winter has turned out. However, I'm sure many of us would take a winter with 2 boring months and one sub zero one, with a maximum snow depth of 40cm (16 inches). I wonder if I'll ever take as many pictures like these again?

Then this was the perfect Christmas weather, taken between the 20th and 25th December:

*Some of these are blurry as my camera didn't like the -15°C temperatures in Cumbria!

Edited February 24, 2011 by alza

[BornFromTheVoid]

Shannon Airport beat it's record high for January, reaching 15.0C today. Old record was 14.8C.

[Snowstorm1]

Shannon Airport beat it's record high for January, reaching 15.0C today. Old record was 14.8C.

February*

[damianslaw]

Superb photographs Alza.

My mate lives in Westerhope and he showed me some photos from late November and the amounts of snow were startling. I know High Heaton having lived in and around the area as well as Jesmond and city centre during every winter since 96/97 bar 2000/2001 up until winter 2008/2009. In all those years I think the most snow I saw in the area was late Feb 2004 when about 4-5 inches fell. Most snowfalls I experienced were less than 3 inches. I was away during the christmas/new year period of 96/97. It was sods law my whole time in Newcastle came with predominantly mild winter weather and no lengthy cold weather or snow (snow came mostly from short lived northerlies) - I was away during winter 00/01 and missed the heavy snows of late feb that year.

My return to the Lake District however as coincided with three winters delivering some proper decent cold and at times very snowy weather. The run up to christmas around these parts being nearly but not quite as cold as the infamous freeze of late Dec 1995. The scenes in the Lake District during the week leading up to christmas day were truly beautiful with many lakes freezing up and everything cloaked in a frozen blanket. Its been an odd winter - very much one of two halves and very unusual to see such cold so early. I was dissapointed with the total amounts of snow during the cold period, but we were compensated with blue skies and very low temps - the river kent in kendal froze for the first time since winter 78/79 and even parts of windermere began to develop ice.

[greybing]

Superb photographs Alza.

My mate lives in Westerhope and he showed me some photos from late November and the amounts of snow were startling. I know High Heaton having lived in and around the area as well as Jesmond and city centre during every winter since 96/97 bar 2000/2001 up until winter 2008/2009. In all those years I think the most snow I saw in the area was late Feb 2004 when about 4-5 inches fell. Most snowfalls I experienced were less than 3 inches. I was away during the christmas/new year period of 96/97. It was sods law my whole time in Newcastle came with predominantly mild winter weather and no lengthy cold weather or snow (snow came mostly from short lived northerlies) - I was away during winter 00/01 and missed the heavy snows of late feb that year.

My return to the Lake District however as coincided with three winters delivering some proper decent cold and at times very snowy weather. The run up to christmas around these parts being nearly but not quite as cold as the infamous freeze of late Dec 1995. The scenes in the Lake District during the week leading up to christmas day were truly beautiful with many lakes freezing up and everything cloaked in a frozen blanket. Its been an odd winter - very much one of two halves and very unusual to see such cold so early. I was dissapointed with the total amounts of snow during the cold period, but we were compensated with blue skies and very low temps - the river kent in kendal froze for the first time since winter 78/79 and even parts of windermere began to develop ice.

In my part of Manchester it was much the same story ,lack of snow but lots of cold clear weather but the Manchester Ship Canal froze which is not a small canal ,as the name implies .I had never seen that canal freeze in my 31 years, I had only seen the smaller canals and ponds etc freeze every year up until that point.It looked truly lovely ,a massive swathe of white with a city scape in the background .I wanted to paint it as I am artist but I ended up in hospital and when I got out after a few weeks there had been a general thaw in the country.

Edited February 26, 2011 by greybing

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Very showery day here, so it was a bit unfair of use to make the kids do a cross country run at Dufton, right underneath the Pennines, as it was a bit of a quagmire.

I'm led to believe by experts that this is known as a cloud.

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Indices

1978-79: 262

2009-10: 197

1985-86: 159

1981-82: 149

1976-77: 141

1984-85: 140

1995-96: 135

1990-91: 126

2010-11: 119

2008-09: 105

1986-87: 100

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

1982-83: 85

1983-84: 82

1993-94: 78

2000-01: 77

1996-97: 72

1979-80: 66

2005-06: 59

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

1994-95: 45

2002-03: 44

1992-93: 43

1999-00: 42

1975-76: 41

1991-92: 40

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1973-74: 30

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2006-07: 21

1988-89: 20

[North-Easterly Blast]

As February 2011 is confirmed as having a CET of 6.4, it smashes the old record mild February to follow a sub zero, sub 1, or sub 2 December, which was 6.1 set in 1871.

This also gives winter 2010-11 as having a CET of 3.13*C, which also is the mildest winter on record to contain a sub zero month. The previous mildest winters to contain a sub zero month were 1955-56 and 1985-86, both at 2.9*C, and this record is smashed in 2010-11.

Many were saying that it the spell pre Xmas was so exceptional, which yes it was probably the most extreme case since the CET record began in 1659 of such a cold early winter freeze up, a 30 day period of -1.5*C ending even before the end of December, even colder than the coldest December calendar month ever, but what I will now conclude to say, is that, winter 2010-11 is definitely Britain's most pear shaped winter on record, for such an exceptional early freeze up to deteriorate into next to nothing before December was even over, and then to lead on into such a mild February. I do not think any other winter reaches the level of how pear shaped this winter has been, there have been early cold winters in the past deteriorating into next to nothing, and even very mild Febs, but no other past winter has seen both the combination of early winter cold of pre Xmas 2010 level, deteriorating into nothing even before December was over.

Given such an exceptional December, this winter has still ended up much less cold than 2009-10, and has even been slightly milder than 1995-96.

To see how pear shaped this winter was, look the overall winter CET at 3.13*C. Take the period 1st - 27th December out of the equation, and winter 2010-11 CET is 5.0*C, not the 3.1 that it ended up. This highlights more that winter 2010-11 is an example of a winter having a notable early cold spell, but the rest of the winter falling into the mild category overall.