Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

[BornFromTheVoid]

Some staggering statistics form the last week in Ireland, including Ballyhaise running at -8.4C, 13.4C below average!

http://www.met.ie/latest/agricultural.asp

[Eugene]

Record minima for these dates

19 -18.8 1981

20 -17.4 1886

21 -15.6 1909

22 -17.4 1890

23 -15.6 1890

24 -16.0 2009

25 -18.3 1878

Altnaharra is very close to breaking the Christmas day record

Incredible run of date min records gone last week :o

I must say (based on the 00z GFS operational), the current temperature anomaly charts just show the level of expectation currently.

In how many winters of a few years ago would we have snapped up an outlook like this:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

Today it is simply called "boring" or "non-descript"*

(*Although personally I think the current output shows much interest for cold weather fans and plenty of opportunity for cold weather. Whether they come to fruition or not is another matter!)

This post from doctormog on TWO is a very sensible level headed post that some should take notice of, i see doctormogs name pop up on username list on here but he doesnt post well i hope he starts to post on here, we need more sensible level headed posters who post the facts and not always moaning when we just had the coldest spell of our lifetime and for well over a hundred years.

[AderynCoch]

we just had the coldest spell of our lifetime and for well over a hundred years.

For December you mean?

[Weather-history]

The Manchester Winter Index up to the 27th of December is 294

Even from now to winter's end, if it became exceptionally mild and I don't record a minimum at or below 0C or another flake of snow, the index is going to be in the 60s surpassing a good bulk of winters of the last 30 years.

1973-74: 30

1974-75: 26

1975-76: 41

1976-77: 141

1977-78: 90

1978-79: 262

1979-80: 66

1980-81: 90

1981-82: 149

1982-83: 85

1983-84: 82

1984-85: 140

1985-86: 159

1986-87: 100

1987-88: 37

1988-89: 20

1989-90: 26

1990-91: 126

1991-92: 40

1992-93: 43

1993-94: 78

1994-95: 45

1995-96: 135

1996-97: 72

1997-98: 25

1998-99: 47

1999-00: 42

2000-01: 77

2001-02: 50

2002-03: 44

2003-04: 50

2004-05: 47

2005-06: 59

2006-07: 21

2007-08: 37

2008-09: 105

2009-10: 197

[reef]

The Manchester Winter Index up to the 27th of December is 294

Even from now to winter's end, if it became exceptionally mild and I don't record a minimum at or below 0C or another flake of snow, the index is going to be in the 60s surpassing a good bulk of winters of the last 30 years.

Indeed, very similar here:

1987/88: 35

1988/89: 8

1989/90: 11

1990/91: 107

1991/92: 46

1992/93: 46

1993/94: 80

1994/95: 38

1995/96: 144

1996/97: 48

1997/98: 20

1998/99: 52

1999/00: 33

2000/01: 79

2001/02: 43

2002/03: 52

2003/04: 59

2004/05: 42

2005/06: 53

2006/07: 18

2007/08: 17

2008/09: 50

2009/10: 197

2010/11: 319 (to 28th Dec)

Even if the rest of the winter had no falling or lying snow, was frostless and had a mean max of 10C the final number would still be 77 and beat all but five of the last 23 winters.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Hi guys

I think it is my first posting in here (I am but a newbie to the forum).

My observation (Yes I remember both 47 and 62 winters!) and particularly the 76 summer - also quite as being exceptional. After the 76 summer I remember thinking a couple of years later had been a game changer. The weatherr in summer appeared to become much better (only a perception I know) with longer (particularly), dry and warmer interludes which became more and more predominant in the 1990's and 2000's. It seemeed to set a higher standard of wearther for the next 20 - 30 years. We didnot have so many three fine days and then a thunderstorm interludes of summer weather.

I am wondering whether this winter may do the same for the coming winters. At the moment it is early days but if this winter carries on until march in a similar manner then I will be interested to see what follows hereafter. It may be interesting to look back historically to see if an extreme example of climate does foretell a spell of weather of a similar ilk.

AsI know nothing is nailed on this year as yet, but it could become something special.

Midlands Ice AGe

[paul tall]

The Manchester Winter Index up to the 27th of December is 294

Even from now to winter's end, if it became exceptionally mild and I don't record a minimum at or below 0C or another flake of snow, the index is going to be in the 60s surpassing a good bulk of winters of the last 30 years.

1973-74: 30

1974-75: 26

1975-76: 41

1976-77: 141

1977-78: 90

1978-79: 262

1979-80: 66

1980-81: 90

1981-82: 149

1982-83: 85

1983-84: 82

1984-85: 140

1985-86: 159

1986-87: 100

1987-88: 37

1988-89: 20

1989-90: 26

1990-91: 126

1991-92: 40

1992-93: 43

1993-94: 78

1994-95: 45

1995-96: 135

1996-97: 72

1997-98: 25

1998-99: 47

1999-00: 42

2000-01: 77

2001-02: 50

2002-03: 44

2003-04: 50

2004-05: 47

2005-06: 59

2006-07: 21

2007-08: 37

2008-09: 105

2009-10: 197

How does one work out the "winter index"?

[Weather-history]

How does one work out the "winter index"?

10 x [(number of days with falling sleet/snow)+(number of days with lying snow at 9am) +(number of occasions minima recorded at or below 0C)]/ winter mean maximum temperature

Not recorded a double digit maximum since the 19th of November, didn't record one during January neither.

Very very unusual

[Eugene]

LOL anybody seen the ridiculous thread on TWO asking people why they want more cold and snow, i mean its a weather forum and its winter what do they expect :lol:

The person who made it up is constantly saying it isnt cold or snowy enough where he lives, well now he's had something cold and snowy enough he's now moaning it was too cold and he doesnt want anymore, people who are bored of winter want months and months of hot weather, well that would get boring too, why they just admit they hate cold, love heat and leave people alone to enjoy cold and snow, it seems the mildies have a very narrowminded view towards other peoples preferences, to me if people like weeks and weeks of hot weather with not much happening its upto them not upto me to tell them why they want it.

[paul tall]

10 x [(number of days with falling sleet/snow)+(number of days with lying snow at 9am) +(number of occasions minima recorded at or below 0C)]/ winter mean maximum temperature

Not recorded a double digit maximum since the 19th of November, didn't record one during January neither.

Very very unusual

Thanks for that.

I was hoping to maybe work out a winter index for each year I've been recording, but I don't record days of falling sleet/snow as I've always felt there is too much room for error for the observer - you might miss many events due to not looking out of the window because you're working, or you're in bed etc etc.

So I can't do the winter index, damn.

LOL anybody seen the ridiculous thread on TWO asking people why they want more cold and snow, i mean its a weather forum and its winter what do they expect :lol:

The person who made it up is constantly saying it isnt cold or snowy enough where he lives, well now he's had something cold and snowy enough he's now moaning it was too cold and he doesnt want anymore, people who are bored of winter want months and months of hot weather, well that would get boring too, why they just admit they hate cold, love heat and leave people alone to enjoy cold and snow, it seems the mildies have a very narrowminded view towards other peoples preferences, to me if people like weeks and weeks of hot weather with not much happening its upto them not upto me to tell them why they want it.

I've loved the heavy and prolonged snow and cold of last winter, and also of this winter - I've waited so many years for it.

I wouldn't mind another couple of weeks of it in January and February either. You know for the hell of it, and just to say I was there.

Having said that, constantly having to dig my car out of various spots (I have to use it a lot) started grating on me after a while. After a little break I can take another spell or two like that, but then even I will be crying out for Spring. Also, this weather plays havoc with the sporting calendar.

Edited December 31, 2010 by paul tall

[Thundery wintry showers]

My experience of the last two winters suggest that I only tire of snow if the resulting disruption becomes particularly extreme (i.e. more extreme than at any point in the last couple of winters) and when it turns to solid ice. There have been a few instances in the last three years when I hoped for ice to thaw away, albeit none when I didn't welcome a dumping of snow shortly after the ice had largely or completely gone.

I've posted before about the fact that I tire of dull snowy spells far more quickly than bright snowy ones but in fairness that has little to do with snow and a lot to do with lack of sunshine, so it's a moot consideration really.

One problem I get is that when I lose enthusiasm for a type of weather it tends to happen on a very temporary basis- on the rare occasions that I lose most of my enthusiasm for snow, it usually recovers fully within a week or two- hence the arguments of the form "how are you wishing for more, you've already had a snowy winter!" vs "yes, but after a milder week or two I'm ready for some more!".

[Weather-history]

December has turned out so cold that if January and February were the mildest combination on record (1990) then the winter CET would be still be below the 1971-2000 CET winter average.

[lukemc]

Talking of this winter as a whole do you see the potential for this winter overall to be the coldest since 1962/63? Even if January was slightly below average but February was very cold (lets say 1C CET or lower) that should mean that we get the coldest winter since 1962/63? So I do think there is a good chance (probably more than 40%) that we record the coldest since 1963 beating last winter and 1978/79. And that would mean that we get 2 significantly cold winters back to back - I don't think that is something that happens very frequently. When was the last time that happened - I think posted that it was in the 1940s or even earlier (Mr Data?)

I think there is an outside chance we could even equal or beat 1962/63 if we had a very cold second half of Janaury like some are predicting and then a cold February but I am just asking about the potential for coldest winter (CET wise) since 1962/63 which I think will be fantastic to see in my lifetime. And also to have 2 of the coldest winters in my lifetime back to back.

Luke

Luke

[Weather-history]

And that would mean that we get 2 significantly cold winters back to back - I don't think that is something that happens very frequently. When was the last time that happened - I think posted that it was in the 1940s or even earlier (Mr Data?)

1984-85 and 1985-86 were back to back sub 3C winters but 1940-1942 were notably cold winters with CETs of 1.5, 2.6 and 2.2 respectively

[Isolated Frost]

Sub 3C Winter's since 1960 (CET Values)

1. 2010-11: -0.7C (up to December 31)

2. 1962-63: -0.3C

3. 1978-79: 1.6C

4. 2009-10: 2.4C

5. 1981-82: 2.6C

6. 1984-85: 2.7C

7. 1985-86: 2.9C

(all figures rounded)

1971-2000 Averages: January 4.2C, February 4.2C

To beat:

1985-86 - January and February require a Mean of less than 4.7C... Slightly Above Average (75%)

1984-85 - January and February require a Mean of less than 4.4C... Slightly Above Average (65%)

1981-82 - January and February require a Mean of less than 4.2C... Average (55%)

2009-10 - January and February require a Mean of less than 4.0C... Slightly Below Average (45%)

1978-79 - January and February require a Mean of less than 2.2C... Below Average (20%)

1962-63 - January and February require a Mean of less than -0.15C... Extremely Below Average (1%)

In Brackets I've put what I think the possibility of beating that winter is...

[BornFromTheVoid]

A brief report on the weather in Ireland for December and for 2010, by Met Eireann.

http://www.met.ie/metadmin/useruploads/file/dec10sum.pdf

Spells of exceptionally cold weather during December brought some of the lowest temperatures ever

recorded in Ireland, together with heavy snowfalls in places. There were also short periods of milder

weather, while overall the month was drier and sunnier than normal. Mean air temperatures for the month

were up to six degrees lower than normal in places and it was the coldest December on record almost

everywhere. It was also the coldest of any month at Dublin Airport, Casement Aerodrome and Mullingar,

each with over 50 years of record.

[19jacobob93]

This discussion has stopped dead recently and i dont blame everyone, the weather has turned so boring! I know its supposed to turn very mild next week but does anyone have any idea whats likely to happen thereafter? I have heard rumours that it might turn cold again though

[Eugene]

Love to see Trevor Harley so excited over December 2010, its great when he has such an extreme exciting month to to be passionate about, the same month i saw people using the word boring. :o

December. An amazing month: exceptionally cold, with a CET of -0.7C. This month was the coldest December since 1890, the coldest month of any since 1986, and the first time the month's average CET (Central England Temperature) was beneath zero since 1986. The exceptionally cold weather continued from the end of November with more heavy snow in the east and south right from the start of the month. The lowest minimum of the month was -21.1C at Altnaharra on the 1st. The lowest maximum of the month, -15.8C, was also recorded at Altnaharra, on the 22nd. After a very cold first ten days the weather turned slightly milder for a while until extremely cold air swept south across the country on the 16th. The air arrived with more snow, and was then followed by some extremely low daytime and night-time temperatures. A new all-time record minimum was set twice in the month in Northern Ireland, with -18.6C at Castelderg on the morning of the 23rd. Other very low temperatures included -18.7C at Pershore on the 20th following a maximum of -8.2C on the 19th, -19.6C at Shawbury on the 19th, and -19.4C at Altnaharra on the 22nd. There were some very low daytime maxima too, including -11.0C at Castlederg on the 18th and -8.2C at Pershore on the 19th. Ten nights during the month the temperature dropped beneather -18C (OF) somewhere in the UK. It was a White Christmas in the sense of widespread lying snow, with some snow showers in th east. The temperature Christmas night at Pershore fell to -16.2C, and only rose to a maximum of -6.4C on Boxing Day. This is the first time there have been two consecutive white Christmases since reliable records began. It became slightly warmer, particularly in the south, from the 28th. The highest temperature of the month was 11.5C at St Mary's (Scilly) on the 28th. The thaw led to widespread bursting of pipes, particularly in parts of Northern Ireland where serious water shortages ensued. It was a dry month, with just 39.4 mm averaged overall England and Wales (39& of the long-term average), making it the driest December since 1991. Both Scotland (47%) and Northern Ireland (60%) were very dry. Shap in Cumbria, often one of the wettest places in Britain, saw just 7 mm of rain all month. It was a sunny month though, particularly in the west and north, with Scotland averaging 176% with 58 hours and Northern Ireland 79 hours being 225%; England and Wales averaged 55 hours (116%). Sunshine totals ranged from 91 hours at Auchincruive in Ayrshire to just 10 hours at Charlwood in Surrey. Many places in Britain had snow lying all month; indeed many locations (including my own station in east Scotland) had snow lying from 25th November through into the New Year. (I am particularly grateful to Philip Eden for supplying extra detail for this historic month.

[AderynCoch]

Love to see Trevor Harley so excited over December 2010, its great when he has such an extreme exciting month to to be passionate about, the same month i saw people using the word boring. :o

I've been thinking the exact same thing! Ever since I started following his website a few years back, I've been waiting for extreme cold to return so I can see his reaction. His December 2010 summary reads like his summaries of months like February 1947 and January 1963: a sure-fire sign of old-school cold. Nice for him to be able to rave about a legendary winter month just as it's happened (last winter's summaries pale in comparison).

[Weather-history]

Wetterzentrale have added December 2010 to its archive charts.

Just look at this chart

[Isolated Frost]

Wetterzentrale have added December 2010 to its archive charts.

Just look at this chart

Good Lord. Greenland High? 1075mb thinks so!

[Stargazer]

Yes, good to see Trevor Harley having something to get excited about.

Not exactly the most exciting part of the summary, but I was interested to read of the very low sunshine totals in parts of the south while December 2010 was generally thought of as being a very sunny month. Looks like I wasn't imagining it when I thought it was rather dull here, with long spells of dry sunless (and of course very cold) days. [Edit - I notice at Hampstead (the nearest site to us quoted by Philip Eden) the last month with above average sunshine was June. I wonder how often six dull months in a row occurs?]

Edited January 10, 2011 by Stargazer

[Matty M]

Wetterzentrale have added December 2010 to its archive charts.

Just look at this chart

Ah the good old days.

Hard to imagine that was less than a month ago, even harder to imagine there will still snow on the deck just over 2 weeks ago!

Seems an age ago.

[Kentish Kiwi]

Wetterzentrale have added December 2010 to its archive charts.

Just look at this chart

Central pressure of 1075 mb... That's not that far off the highest ever recorded (equivalent) sea level of 1085.6 mb which was recorded in Mongolia during December 2001.

Incredible to see such extreme high pressure almost exactly where we would want to see it (for cold in the UK).

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, good to see Trevor Harley having something to get excited about.

Not exactly the most exciting part of the summary, but I was interested to read of the very low sunshine totals in parts of the south while December 2010 was generally thought of as being a very sunny month. Looks like I wasn't imagining it when I thought it was rather dull here, with long spells of dry sunless (and of course very cold) days. [Edit - I notice at Hampstead (the nearest site to us quoted by Philip Eden) the last month with above average sunshine was June. I wonder how often six dull months in a row occurs?]

Seems to be quite a common characteristic of severe wintry months- even when northerly rather than easterly winds prevail, the southeast often ends up somewhat cloudier relative to average than other regions. It probably has a lot to do with the southeast frequently lying in the path of frontal systems associated with southerly tracking lows, giving mainly frontal snowfalls and extensive cloud cover, while further north there is more reliance on convective snowfalls with sunshine in between.