The 3 Counties And East Anglia Spring Weather Discussion

[shotski]

OH Dear !!!!!!! Just been up the garden and already some frogs in the pond Have they not seen the GFS 06 run.

Looks to be heading for some sort of scand High and MAYBE an e'ly with big freeze part 2

[Roger Daltrey]

UK Outlook for Friday 11 Feb 2011 to Sunday 20 Feb 2011:

It will initially be unsettled, particularly across western parts of the UK with showers or longer periods of rain, some of which will be heavy at times. This rain will occasionally extend further east but amounts here are likely to be smaller. It will be on the mild side at first and also rather windy at times in the north and west of the UK with a risk of gales. There is then an increasing trend for it to turn generally colder through next week, with a risk of some snow, particularly over higher ground and perhaps to lower levels in the north and east. There is also a lower risk of it turning very cold in eastern parts, with a chance of some significant snowfalls.

Updated: 1152 on Sun 6 Feb 2011

[Ben_Cambs]

Maybe the risk of sunshine on Tuesday before the cloud returns on Wednesday :lol: . Has felt particulary mild over the past few days, with a gust of 59mph on Saturday which is quite rare nowadays! Going to be another cloudy dull week with temperatures reaching 10C and not falling much at night, but maybe come the weekend and the week after, something more interesting could occur...

Edited February 6, 2011 by Ben_Cambs

[Snowangel-MK]

Better late than never, well it is Monday morning after all - here is a severe weather warning for the East of England, just in cast anyone in Peterborough would like to bungee their bin to the fence post like wot I've had to do here !!

　

Advisory of severe or extreme weather

　

Severe Gales

Mon 7 Feb

Issued at: 0824 Mon 7 Feb

　

Strong south westerly winds will increase to gale force across many parts this morning, giving gusts to around 60 mph, perhaps with gusts as high as 70 mph, particularly over parts of eastern England this afternoon. Winds will become westerly, then quickly ease from the west later today.

　

East of England:

Norfolk

Peterborough

Edited February 7, 2011 by MKsnowangel

[sblog]

Looks to be heading for some sort of scand High and MAYBE an e'ly with big freeze part 2

Hope you're right - getting sick of this 'middle of the road weather' - Would like some more snow, a lot more

[saint]

Another blustery day today. The gusts today seemed to be stronger than they have been over the past couple of days....

[Habsish]

Hope you're right - getting sick of this 'middle of the road weather' - Would like some more snow, a lot more

As much as I like snow and frost it is getting to the stage that everything nature wise is bursting so I do not want everything trashed. If we have snow now it is likely to be gone pretty quickly with all the resultant mess and hassle after an exciting dump of the white stuff.

I agree the weather is pretty boring at the moment.

H

[shotski]

As much as I like snow and frost it is getting to the stage that everything nature wise is bursting so I do not want everything trashed. If we have snow now it is likely to be gone pretty quickly with all the resultant mess and hassle after an exciting dump of the white stuff.

I agree the weather is pretty boring at the moment.

H

I can see where you are coming from but Feb is very much a winter month and traditionaly one of our snowiest, maybe as winter started early this year people think

we are now in spring but this is not the case.

I think the second half of feb could be below average or maybe very cold and IMO march is going to be well below the norm.

IF and it's a big IF the chart below comes off snow will be on the ground for many days

[Jason T]

Right then so who,s up for an EASTERLY, WITH ALL THE TRIMMINGS...................... ANYONE.

OK i will book you all in for 6 days time, DONT be late..................

[Snowangel-MK]

Right then so who,s up for an EASTERLY, WITH ALL THE TRIMMINGS...................... ANYONE.

OK i will book you all in for 6 days time, DONT be late..................

Hello........Can I take a rain snow check on that until on or after the 16th please - I have places to go and people to see first :unsure:

[Ben_Cambs]

Looks like our good old friend Mr.Shortwave is back! He had a jolly good time keeping this region dry during the late November cold spell and it looks like he will be attempting to prevent an Easterly from reaching the UK! One thing that might happen though is that the cold will build up in Eastern Europe, so if it does manage to get rid of Mr.Shortwave, some very cold weather may be able to reach the UK. Time will tell as ever though. In the meantime, more energy is being transferred into the Southern arm of the Jet Stream, which is currently stationed over N.Africa, lowering heights over Spain/ Iberia and the Mediterrean which is one step to an Easterly. We also need the High Pressure over Scandinavia to be orientated favourably, which looks like it might well happen... We just need to get rid of these shortwaves over W Norway and shove them S of the UK! The ECM at T+240 partly achieved this:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

I think there is a good chance of a cold spell within the next few weeks, when though is anyone's guess...

[shotski]

you will see the models start to upgrade the E'ly from tomorrow, the atlantic wont be back till the end of March

[shotski]

Told you so :clap:

Now can this place come alive !!!!!!!!

[Ben_Cambs]

Yes- the ECM manages to get rid of the shortwave just E of Iceland at T+96 which allows the Scandi High to ridge west and advect very cold uppers to the UK- The T+240 chart is beautiful:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-240.GIF?10-0

Shame it doesn't have any support from UKMO and GFS though.

[shotski]

The other models will come on board, even if we get the middle ground of what the ECM is showing it would still be a decent cold spell.

That is a pure beast at T+240 if only it was T+96 I think the BOM has been showing this for a while now to.

NO GAPS also showing the Beast

[Roger Daltrey]

This morning the Model Output place was telling us we would be having an early Spring by next week, 6 hours later and the same people are telling us we will be having freezing temperatures and snow. Maybe tomorrow we could be looking forward to a plague of locusts.

Edit to say: Some of my daffodils started to bloom today. Lovely.

Edited February 10, 2011 by Roger Daltrey

[shotski]

This morning the Model Output place was telling us we would be having an early Spring by next week, 6 hours later and the same people are telling us we will be having freezing temperatures and snow. Maybe tomorrow we could be looking forward to a plague of locusts.

Fair point :unsure: some of the members on there react to each run, you soon know who you can trust and he at the moment is keeping stum

[Jason T]

Edit to say: Some of my daffodils started to bloom today. Lovely.

Yes and that why the snow is coming lol

[Heisenberg]

ITs been so quiet on here lately....such a lot of mushy weather. Lets hope that with the prospect of some white gold coming our way that things will pick up.......

how are the models this morning?

[shotski]

ITs been so quiet on here lately....such a lot of mushy weather. Lets hope that with the prospect of some white gold coming our way that things will pick up.......

how are the models this morning?

They are lookin a load of old B#@#@cks

[Hughsey]

wow so little going on in this thread, but then i guess theres nothin to discuss. im still hopeful that we will see some sort of cold spell soon though. *fingers crossed*

Edited February 11, 2011 by Snow_Lover123

[Roger Daltrey]

So we have now gone from Spring to Snow back to Spring again in the Model Output thingy.

[Pixel]

Yes and that why the snow is coming lol

yes and if you look at this:

http://www.meteoblue.com/uploads/meteobluedata/pub/nmm22/maps/00PCP03.htm

there's a teensy weeny bit of snow projected on monday

for about 20mins I reckon

[Snowangel-MK]

Had a hail shower here about an hour ago - it was the most exciting weather thing that's happened in a while - it even lasted long enough to give a temporary white cover !

It's nice when things happen when you least expect them too, and even better when you're lucky enough not to have got caught outside in it :-)

[Roger Daltrey]

Is there anybody out there?