Summer 2011

[Alex]

Thanks summer blizzard good post! What was the indications this time last year in regards to the summer last year?

[Jane Louise]

Thanks summer blizzard good post! What was the indications this time last year in regards to the summer last year?

Just wondering whether you seen my last post!!

Could you please pop your location into your profile which will be in your edit profile settings.

Cheers!!

[Alex]

Will do Jane sorry I'm on iPhone so I'll do it when I get home.

[Jane Louise]

Will do Jane sorry I'm on iPhone so I'll do it when I get home.

Ok, thanks a lot Alex

[Isolated Frost]

Considering it is the Model Discussion, here are my favourites for Spring & Summer Weather:

Me in two charts basically, though if I could find a stronger Northerly, with a more NNE tint, then maybe a tad happier

[Backtrack]

CFS obviously can just be tossed out of the window at this range.

But wouldn't constant Northerlies in Summer lead to a North to South split with Scotland and the far North of England being wet and cloudy whilst the South would be cool (warm though obviously, it's Summer :lol: ) ! but sunny and dry?

[Optimus Prime]

East and South england had a very warm summer 2010 while west and north was more average and very wet. Be interesting to see what summer brings this year. Drier more likely.

[Bolton67]

I'm going for a repeat of 2006

Hot june, scortcher in July and roasting in August and BBQ every weekend.:lol:

please!!!!

Edited January 4, 2011 by Bolton_Madman

[Thundery wintry showers]

Re. northerlies in summer, I prefer there to be a westerly component to the northerly, this results in relatively unstable air which gives a minimum of low cloud when high pressure is close by and promotes heavy thundery showers when low pressure is close by. In Tyne and Wear, the northerly outbreak of 27 August 1995 produced a memorable thunderstorm with large hail:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950827.gif

Conversely a northerly with an easterly component tends to bring dry stable air over from Scandinavia, and by summer we no longer have the "cold air, warm sea" combination to de-stabilise the airmass. This can result in a fair amount of low cloud. Earlier in the same year, we had a notably cold cloudy spell on the 10th-13th June 1995 from this type of northerly:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950612.gif

Ironically we'd had a similar bout of north to north-easterly winds around 10-13 May 1995 and those brought sunshine and wintry showers- this goes to show that the warming up of those continental airmasses to the NE makes all the difference as the season progresses.

I can't argue with 19th July 2006- I may generally prefer variety to homogeneity as far as the weather goes, but I enjoyed that particular summer month more than any other since I started recording the weather back in 1993.

As for the La Nina analogues, 2005 wasn't a particularly dull wet summer except in northern Scotland. The second half of June was very warm and sunny over most of the country with a few big thunderstorms, notably in NE England on the 19th and in south-western areas on the 24th and 28th, the second week of July was hot and sunny (albeit offset by a very dull last third of July) and August was quite a dry sunny month in most regions.

[Alex95]

Since I'm going to Central Florida for 3 weeks in late July / early August I'm guaranteed some stifling heat and humidity, along with a strong thunderstorm almost every day, so I'm not bothered about seeing another 1976, 1995 or 2006 here in the UK. However, my favourite Summer weather would be a good variety; a few brief southerly outbreaks with some thunderstorms, interspersed with cooler, showery weather. There should also be a nice, cool north easterly whilst I'm in the Lake District, preferably at Easter, where I can avoid the low cloud which would plague places east of the Pennines, and a more prolonged, sunny spell at some stage, like in late May 2009. 2007 wouldn't have been as bad if there had been a couple of 5 day southerly outbreaks as there was a good deal of thundery weather at times. 2005 would have been good if the weather had been sunnier between mid July and mid August; the second half of June was great for heat and thunderstorms, and the 31st August was the only supercell storm I've ever witnessed in North East England.

I was happy with the first half of Summer 2009, then the second half was poor, but I was in Belgium for almost 3 weeks in August where the weather was hot.

Edited January 4, 2011 by alza

[Milhouse]

Could this be moved to the winter discussion forum rather than in the model discussion. I know its not relevant to winter but if it goes there then more people will see it. Theres only so much model related stuff one can discuss in relation to summer.

As for the wonderful season itself i really want to see a different pattern to the last 4 summers. There has been a gradual improvement with the Azores High having more and more of an influence but what we've really lacked is a high staying over, or just to the east of the country for long periods. That would give widespread very warm/hot weather. Last June was probably the closest we've come to that in the last 4 years and the SW got to share in the warmth aswell.

Something like this would be perfect.

27c in London, 28c in Birmingham and Glasgow and 30c in Bournemouth

And theres this from 2003

I very cleary remember this day. Standing at the bottom of my nanna and grandads garden hearing distant rumbles on a warm and sultry evening.

[Bottesford]

Could this be moved to the winter discussion forum rather than in the model discussion. I know its not relevant to winter but if it goes there then more people will see it. Theres only so much model related stuff one can discuss in relation to summer.

Agreed and merged with existing spring thread.

Just looking at some of those nice red/orange charts warms my currently cold feet!

[ZONE 51]

Here is my theorys:

1 - based on % chance.

. Its about time the whole UK had a good summer

. Can the North have two cool summers in a row?

2 - Solar Minumum infuence.

. Summer 2010 , Azores high didn't extend across all UK.

. Jet Stream did not move north

. Cool Summer North UK

. Summer hot weather clipped SE corner of UK

3 - 2011 Possibilitys

. Continued pattern

. Change in pattern of Blocking/unusual Jet stream pattern

. Azores high not reaching UK

. Jet stream more south than summer 2010

[ZONE 51]

=

I'm starting to imagine the ice age theory, if i think of last winters prolonged cold ,then summer 2010..the North had a cool one but the real heat only clipped SE UK, and this early severe winter, the blocking pattern, then the jet stream thats showed a need for southern europe holidays, then i think next summer if this pattern continues (due to some major factors - Solar min..) we could be lucky to have summer anywhere in the UK..

[ZONE 51]

If everything(the whole weather pattern)is pulling south then we won't be warm thats for sure, maybe the book is right that i read..but then again i never thought it was wrong either, its just that it all seems to be coming together..and with this book written just after last winter.

imagine next summer the SE don't even get hot, then the year after N-france is cooler, do see what an ice age does.

IceAge? if we get the widespread hot sunny summer 2011..then that theory would just melt!

[Isolated Frost]

Hi N.

Number 1: Here in Durham, we had another ABOVE average Summer, at 14.9C, the exact same as the 2008 and 2009's summers (2007 only hit 14.5C), and it was the 27th warmest since 1850.

Number 2: We always have Summer, June 1 (21) to September 1 (21)... no matter how cold.

It's very interesting to see the difference in opinion on here. I'm sure most on here would love a continental climate, with hot, dry summers, and cold, dry or snowy winters.

Though some like cool, wet in Summer and cold, wet in Winter.

Continental climates for me take the biscuit, I love the sound of Warm days, and cold temperatures, less precip, and more sun...

[CroatianWeather]

Maybe I am wrong...but my amateur opinion is...-->

negative NAO index which will(watching seasonal SST predictions) persist also in the summer 2011 combinated with weak to moderate La nina(it is NOT going to be El nino or Neutral phase) will give COOL AND WET summer for north,west and northwest Europe where I predict is gonna be low pressure area.........

and SOUTH,SOUTHEAST, AND EAST parts of the continent will be under ridge of High pressure and will have sunny,hot and near-normal rainfall !

...so we can make cocnclusion that this summer will MAYBE be similar to summers of 2000 and 2007 ....

once again,I am going for a lot of rain,maybe local floods in West,and Northwest Europe,also very unsettled summer in Central Europe,and more settled in the East and Southeast.....

If someone doesnt agree with me you can tell your opinion!

Edited January 5, 2011 by CroatianWeather

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think for me the downside of a continental climate would be the near-absence of convective precipitation in the winter half-year (the sun is too weak to generate anything homegrown and the oceans generate all other convective precipitation). Perhaps there might be certain continental climates at lower latitudes that have cold winters despite a stronger sun, and a strong enough sun to generate some convection even in winter, but I'm not aware of any specific ones. The colder snowier winters and more varied temperatures might more than make up for it though. I certainly wouldn't argue with continental summers, having been to various parts of France on numerous occasions and, with the exception of the far north (maritime) and far south (Mediterranean), preferring their summer weather to our own.

I'm going to come clean and admit that I have no idea what Summer 2011 is going to produce- we had two analogues from the La Nina state in 2005 and 2007 and those two summers were very different.

[Alex]

What happens if we get a neural la Nina or el niño develop with a -qbo summer blizzard or anyone? Also without sounding stupid what does qbo mean? Cheers

[cheeky_monkey]

Chelmsford in Essex, It was very good here hardly any rain and Many days over 25c! Writtle was quite often the hotspot last summer and this is 5miles to the west of the town.

North sea: cool and dry would mean 2/3c below and dry? So we looking at 20c with Manu dry sunny days? I must admit I like heat so this prob would suit me.

ahh the joys of Chelmsford..lived there for 10 glorious years in the 80s and 90s..good summers and decent winters..and yes pretty dry by UK standards..anyway maybe be popping back to visit the good old UK over the spring or summer so would luv some nice warm breezy summer weather.

[Weather-history]

Summer, autumn and winter have all had at least 1 below average season in recent times , so we must be due a below average spring. Last spring was close to achieving this.

Edited January 5, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Isolated Frost]

TWS, I'm sure I read somewhere (?) that parts of SE England and the E of England have a more semi-continental climate.

I think the Brecklands of East Anglia, Central Kent and Surrey, and parts of the N Home Counties (Herts, Bucks) and Bedfordshire and Cambridgeshire would be the most appropriate for any Continental climate here.

Warm, dry summers (av. max in July 22-25C), Cool, dry winters, exposed to harsh Easterlies (av. min in Jan 0C-2C).

I saw on a BBC documentary that the Brecklands of East Anglia have the warmest Summers and coldest Winters in Britain, I'm not sure about the accuracy, but if it were true, surely it would class as a continental climate?

Isolated Frost.

[butler_son]

A long, hot summer please! A few rainy interludes to keep the cricket pitches watered I guess, preferably in April or May, and a bit to stave off drought, but I'd love it if everyday could at least hit my July average temp (which according to Wikipedia is about 22 degrees). I have absolutely no problems with excessive heat or humidity (in fact, the more humidity the better, love bowling in that), so bring it on! Please.

Cricket fans want dry weather - please, for once after the last 3 washouts, can we have a dry summer?

27c in London, 28c in Birmingham and Glasgow and 30c in Bournemouth

Yes, yes, a thousand times yes! Can't wait for the first day to hit Bournemouth beach this spring (might end up being in March). Had the last decent day down there in October which was great. A warm, dry summer would do wonders for the local economy in these parts.

Edited January 5, 2011 by butler_son

[Summer of 95]

TWS, I'm sure I read somewhere (?) that parts of SE England and the E of England have a more semi-continental climate.

I think the Brecklands of East Anglia, Central Kent and Surrey, and parts of the N Home Counties (Herts, Bucks) and Bedfordshire and Cambridgeshire would be the most appropriate for any Continental climate here.

Warm, dry summers (av. max in July 22-25C), Cool, dry winters, exposed to harsh Easterlies (av. min in Jan 0C-2C).

I saw on a BBC documentary that the Brecklands of East Anglia have the warmest Summers and coldest Winters in Britain, I'm not sure about the accuracy, but if it were true, surely it would class as a continental climate?

Isolated Frost.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%B6ppen_climate_classification

"Continental climates" according to the official definitions (there are two or three variants" require the coldest month to average below 0C, or even -3C in the original Koppen version.

Under the Koppen-Geiger system, using 0C as the boundary between C (temperate) and D (continental), I don't think anywhere in Britain would make it into group D, as the Scottish mountaintops that average below 0C in winter would probably fit into ET (tundra) climate instead, due to their cool summers (warmest month below 10C).

However under the Trewartha scheme, most if not all of England and Wales would be in D, as C is reserved for "subtropical" climates with 8 or more months averaging over 10C (maybe Cornwall?). However DO is still classed as temperate, as <0C in the coldest month is required to make it "continental". Scotland would probably see the lowlands in D, the highlands mostly in E- specifically EO ("maritime subarctic")- unless the H "highland" definition was applied.

Regarding the criticisms, I don't think anywhere can be called "subtropical" unless the coolest month averages 8C or more, and the warmest 18C or more. I think a "sub-continental" classification is appropriate for places with coolest month below 8C and warmest month above 18C, as these areas (much of France, northern Italy, probably a few spots in SE England) have recognisably hot summers and cool winters, reminiscent of continental climates; but don't quite get such extreme cold as is found in the classic "continental" climate. "Temperate" should be reserved for places with all months between 0 and 18C, "warm temperate" if coldest month is above 8C, "cool temperate" if not.

[Isolated Frost]

Thanks for that Summer of 95