Summer 2011

[Richard Lake]

OMG a thread of ppl looking forward to spring and summer in the midst of January

[Thundery wintry showers]

there arent any records of cloud cover/sunshine amounts but records show temperatures of 19-22c right on the coast during the 1976 heatwave. Thats pretty respectable if you ask me, especially as that particular chart from 1st July would suggest much cooler.

I think the 1st July 1976 chart doesn't have a strong enough easterly flow to bring more than a bit of temporary "haar" onto east-coast areas, burning off in the sun during the morning. That said, I wouldn't drool over a repeat of Summer 1976- I would probably enjoy the hot sunshine for a while and then start scanning the charts for convective potential following the long run of uneventful weather (Summer 1976 was remarkably thunder-free).

[ZONE 51]

I can't wait for the spring..bulbs, new tree buds, bright green new life..first lawn mowers buzzing away..lighter both ends of the day..just great! the birds are singing right now, love the early chorus in spring as it more active.

Interesting Mr Data's post on la-nina and cold late winter or early spring, this does bring a late snowfall on to the table, so winter weather could be biting late..

[Terminal Moraine]

I'd certainly won't be drooling over that July 1976 chart, i obviously was not born then but to me, that screams out North Sea low cloud and quite chilly(compare to other areas). Of course, there is some exceptions to the rule in that we can get easterly winds but to my surprise, it actually stays sunny and fairly cool.

You're correct with your second sentence with regard to the July 1976 chart, GS. It was mainly sunny on the east coast

( though not as sunny as inland ) Tynemouth had 12 hours sunshine that day with a max' of 19c. Further south, Kilnsea at the mouth of the Humber was similar. Further south still, at Gorleston in Norfolk there was 15 hours sunshine and a max' of 26c.

Compare these figures to inland where there was 15 hours of sunshine and maxima generally around 32-33c.

[AderynCoch]

I'm pretty astonished that some areas were so relatively cool during that legendary heatwave. Liverpool AP reached 30C that day, one of nine consecutive days to reach that figure. 19th July 2006 was similar. I suppose one area's gain is the other's loss.

The South West can't really compete with the South East in summer, but further north there is often an interesting heat battle between east and west. Last summer the east won hands down, especially in July - that was such a poor month here in the west.

[conor123]

The charts for the next week or so would bring lovely conditions in Summer, i do wish high pressure would stay away for 3 months yet as i get anxious when its all used up in the winter.

[Terminal Moraine]

The charts for the next week or so would bring lovely conditions in Summer, i do wish high pressure would stay away for 3 months yet as i get anxious when its all used up in the winter.

Believe me there is no quota of high (or low) pressure for the year. Whether or not we have weeks of high pressure now has little bearing on whether there will be spells of high pressure during spring and summer.

1964 and 1989, for example, both had long spells of high pressure during the winter and long spells of high pressure during the summer.

[Alex]

In fact i believe the more anticyclonic conditions we have now is sometimes a sign of whats to come, 2005-06 is good example of this.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think this "quota" thing is reminiscent of the concerns about us having a "quota" of cold snowy weather and thus lamenting the fact that we had such a cold snowy start to the season. It's true that extremely cold weather tends to have a low "staying power" early in the season, resulting in the severe cold relaxing its grip into January and February, but this can range from a 1981/82 type scenario to a scenario where it remains snowy but the bouts of severe cold become less persistent.

Talking of which, while 2010/11 may well feature a similar progression to 1981/82, I have a hunch that it may end up more akin to the very topsy turvy season of 1890/91. 1890/91 had that record cold December that 2010 just failed to beat in CET-land, followed by a milder January, a notably mild dry sunny February with similar synoptics to 8-20 February 2008... and then a switch to very cold snowy weather in early March. The teleconnections for February are consistent with this, and so is the recent link between La Nina events and snow events during the spring.

As for high pressure I don't think there is a link between high pressure in winter and high pressure in summer. Interestingly, in the last 50 years hot summers have been correlated with notable warm spells in the preceding spring (1976, 1984, 1989, 1990, 1995 and 2003 all had notable hot spells in April and/or May) but this might be a statistical quirk as well.

[Backtrack]

I'm pretty astonished that some areas were so relatively cool during that legendary heatwave. Liverpool AP reached 30C that day, one of nine consecutive days to reach that figure. 19th July 2006 was similar. I suppose one area's gain is the other's loss.

The South West can't really compete with the South East in summer, but further north there is often an interesting heat battle between east and west. Last summer the east won hands down, especially in July - that was such a poor month here in the west.

The South West CAN definitely compete with the South East in Summer!!

SW England is nicer, the sun index is always higher... there generally is more cloud, but when it comes to temperatures the South West is hotter than the South East on a lot of occasions.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The South West cannot compete with the South East as far as extreme heat (>32C) is concerned- it is too far from the continent and too exposed to the Atlantic. For relatively modest heat (25-29C) it's a different story. There are certainly circumstances when south-west England ends up the warmest region of the UK in summer, which typically involve north and east winds, but on those occasions the temperatures rarely get above the mid to high 20s.

Not sure about the south-west generally having more cloud- the upland parts (Exmoor, Dartmoor etc) do, but low-lying areas have comparable amounts of sunshine to the south-east.

[AderynCoch]

If there were such things as cold/warm quotas, we wouldn't experience winters such as 1962/3 or 1988/9, or summers such as 1879 or 1976. Any weather pattern lasting for weeks and weeks in this part of the world is rare full stop, but experiencing for example a prolonged cold pattern like that leading up to Christmas does not make the following weeks/months any less likely to produce cold. Viewing this winter in isolation (i.e. disregarding teleconnection signals etc.), there is no reason to suggest that we've used up all our cold "allowance": the only reason the cold hasn't lasted is because it would be extremely rare for it to do so for so long at a time.

Edited January 18, 2011 by AderynCoch

[Backtrack]

The South West cannot compete with the South East as far as extreme heat (>32C) is concerned- it is too far from the continent and too exposed to the Atlantic. For relatively modest heat (25-29C) it's a different story. There are certainly circumstances when south-west England ends up the warmest region of the UK in summer, which typically involve north and east winds, but on those occasions the temperatures rarely get above the mid to high 20s.

Not sure about the south-west generally having more cloud- the upland parts (Exmoor, Dartmoor etc) do, but low-lying areas have comparable amounts of sunshine to the south-east.

Yeah extreme heat is a winning situation for the South East being closer to the continent as you say.

But the SW does have more cloud. I visit there quite a lot, and they have more cloudy days than many other places I would say.

Maybe someone could back that up with records. I wouldn't know where to start looking.

[AderynCoch]

but when it comes to temperatures the South West is hotter than the South East on a lot of occasions.

I can't say any such occasions spring to mind (in summer), aside from August 1990 when Cheltenham broke the UK heat record with 37.1C, but that's about it.

Edited January 18, 2011 by AderynCoch

[Backtrack]

I can't say any such occasions spring to mind (in summer), aside from August 1990 when Cheltenham broke the UK heat record with 37.1C, but that's about it.

In terms of general heat, not extreme heat.

[Scorcher]

I can't say any such occasions spring to mind (in summer), aside from August 1990 when Cheltenham broke the UK heat record with 37.1C, but that's about it.

I don't think Cheltenham can be categorised with the climate of the South West. Its climate shares far more characteristics with the Midlands than the South West. Temperatures if 30C+ are relatively common in Cheltenham compared to Devon and Cornwall for example. It's a very sheltered location when winds are from the south east.

Edited January 18, 2011 by Scorcher

[MP-R]

The South West can't really compete with the South East in summer, but further north there is often an interesting heat battle between east and west. Last summer the east won hands down, especially in July - that was such a poor month here in the west.

This is much more the case with sunshine. Last July was very warm but often cloudy or wet. So where here would be 24-25C with thin cloud, the southeast could be 26-27C with sunshine.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Sunshine averages for the summer quarter, 1971-2000:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/7100_1km/Sunshine_Average_1971-2000_14.gif

The map shows that only to the south of London does lowland south-east England get more sunshine than most of lowland south-west England. The summers of 2007-10 were all anomalously cloudy relative to the average in the south-west, relative to other regions of the UK, and this may be influencing the perception that the south-west gets cloudy summers.

[Isolated Frost]

Sunshine averages for the summer quarter, 1971-2000:

http://www.metoffice...971-2000_14.gif

The map shows that only to the south of London does lowland south-east England get more sunshine than most of lowland south-west England. The summers of 2007-10 were all anomalously cloudy relative to the average in the south-west, relative to other regions of the UK, and this may be influencing the perception that the south-west gets cloudy summers.

Yeah, we only 385 hours at Durham in 10', 392 in 09'. Hoping to at least pass 400 this summer!

[Evening thunder]

I would be drooling over that 1976 chart on the last page, as for my area with a E wind not off the channel, that is one of the hottest set ups. That day had a max of 30C at Exeter Airport, and every day from the 25th June - 6th July had 29-33C maxes. (two maxes of 33C and two of 32C)

It depends what aspects you're looking at really comparing the SW to the SE in summer, If your comparing temperatures, Its more rare to get spells of weather >30C in the SW, as TWS says, and the example above is I think the most notable I can find for Exeter Airport (since 1973). The average max temps tend to be slightly lower (in Devon and Cornwall), but still a nice 21-22C for Exeter in July. However with sunshine then much of the SW tends to be similar to the SE. (although the SE coasts may just about get the most) Average maps can be found here: http://www.metoffice...te/uk/anomacts/

The highest temp recorded for Devon is I think 35.4C somewhere in North Devon (Can't remember where)

Interestingly last July wasn't too bad here in my opinion, average-slightly above average max temps (21.2C here), and not nearly as dull further NW, we had slightly below average sunshine with 160-200 hours (a nearby site recorded 201 hours), In recent years we were plainly the wrong side of the 'NW-SE split' however last July we didn't fare as bad. July was nowhere near as good as June though with its 300+ hours of sun and average max temps 2C+ above average

I wouldn't mind a nice warm summer this year, with a few thunderstorms and variations in weather (I don't tend to like it too hot for too long) But can't remember what 30C feels like, July 06 seems a long time ago! I'm not too sure we will get it with recent tendency and La Nina etc, but who knows..

Edit: Didn't see TWS had beat me and posted that sunshine map!

Edit edit: just realised I posted a link to the actual maps, not climate averages, climate averages here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/ukmapavge.html

Edited January 18, 2011 by Stormmad26

[Isolated Frost]

Yeah, we only 385 hours at Durham in 10', 392 in 09'. Hoping to at least pass 400 this summer!

and looking up on it, we got 407 hours of sunlight in SPRING 10', it may of been the sunniest Spring in xx years, but that is just plain mad to beat Summer!

EDIT: 502 hours - Summer 06', that's more like it! And we got the dullest August in 94 years aswell! Sunniest July in 51 years though.

Edited January 18, 2011 by Isolated Frost

[Summer of 95]

I'm sure that a period of sustained 25C and sunshine for 2 months has not occured in the South, even in 1976 I'm pretty sure it didn't let alone the North! That's just not going to happen I'm afraid.

26 June-25 August 1995; 39 out of 60 days topped 25C at Shawbury, and 56/60 topped 20C. Only 8 days had measurable rain, and only one 5 mm or more (the brilliant thunderstorm of 10 July). That's definitely the closest I've known to "2 months of sustained 25C and sunshine".

A really damning indictment of how poor 2000s summers have been compared to the 90s is that August 1995 had as many days over 25C as all the Augusts of 2001-10 put together.

[Alex95]

The Pennines and the Lake District are the dullest parts of England, though the Scottish Highlands surpass that by a long shot, as does the west of Northern Ireland. The sunniest Summer weather occurs along the South Coast from Weymouth to Dover. However, from past experience it is much more likely to get prolonged cloudy weather in North East England than in the North West, usually courtesy of easterly winds; at least in the cloudy North West the sun usually comes out for a little while between the rain bands.

Although North East England is a relatively dry part of Britain, the lack of very warm summer days is dreadful. It is quite rare to get a temperature which exceeds 25°C - usually this only happens when 30°C is recorded somewhere in the south. Even then, a slight onshore wind can ruin a 'hot' day - at the end of June 2009 a heatwave advisory was issued for much of England, but low cloud from the North Sea held the temperature back to around 15-18°C, though the sun did come out for 1 day later in the week with a cracking thunderstorm. Even the Lake District seems to get more very warm days than Newcastle despite more rainfall, though when you live here anything over 21°C feels hot.

2006 was utterly exceptional up here, and felt oppressive with temperatures regularly reaching 25°C. In Southern England that would just be a nice, warm day. Up here it is a heatwave.

Edited January 18, 2011 by alza

[Isolated Frost]

Yeah Alza, very disturbing.

Durham, 2006-now Summer Maxima:

2006: Warmest Temperature; 30.5C (18th July)

Days above 25C; 19 (June - 1, July - 17, August - 1)

2007: Warmest Temperature; 25.5C (6th August)

Days above 25C; 1 (June - 0, July - 0, August - 1)

2008: Warmest Temperature; 26.1C (27th July)

Days above 25C; N/A (most likely to be 1)

2009: Warmest Temperature; 26.8C (1st July)

Days above 25C; 3 (June - 1, July - 2, August - 0)

2010: Warmest Temperature; 24.6C (22nd June (!)) (May High Temperature - 27.1C)

Days above 25C; 0 (June - 0, July - 0, August - 0) (May - 2)

It's grim oop norf.

[damianslaw]

The Pennines and the Lake District are the dullest parts of England, though the Scottish Highlands surpass that by a long shot, as does the west of Northern Ireland. The sunniest Summer weather occurs along the South Coast from Weymouth to Dover. However, from past experience it is much more likely to get prolonged cloudy weather in North East England than in the North West, usually courtesy of easterly winds; at least in the cloudy North West the sun usually comes out for a little while between the rain bands.

Although North East England is a relatively dry part of Britain, the lack of very warm summer days is dreadful. It is quite rare to get a temperature which exceeds 25°C - usually this only happens when 30°C is recorded somewhere in the south. Even then, a slight onshore wind can ruin a 'hot' day - at the end of June 2009 a heatwave advisory was issued for much of England, but low cloud from the North Sea held the temperature back to around 15-18°C, though the sun did come out for 1 day later in the week with a cracking thunderstorm. Even the Lake District seems to get more very warm days than Newcastle despite more rainfall, though when you live here anything over 21°C feels hot.

2006 was utterly exceptional up here, and felt oppressive with temperatures regularly reaching 25°C. In Southern England that would just be a nice, warm day. Up here it is a heatwave.

Sorry but disagree. Having lived for the best part of 12 years in the NE England and my time before that and for 2 years now in the Lake District - I have to say the NE is on average much sunnier and in summer much more likely to be warmer than the Lake District. The key reason our prevailing wind is a westerly/south westerly which will always favour the NE over the Lake District in terms of sunshine and warmer temps. It is only when we have a long run of cloudy easterlies/north easterlies or northerlies do conditions favour the Lake District rather than the NE in terms of sunshine and warmer temps.

I will say late spring can be a dismal affair in the NE compared to the Lake District when we have a cold north easterly then the coast is bathed in sea fret penetrating far inland and producing very chilly air, conversely in such set ups temps in the Lakes can be 10 degrees higher under blue skies and sunshine.

August is notorious for producing day after day of low cloud and drizzle in the Lake District when tropical maritime air dominates, the NE under such a synoptic will have very bright and quite warm weather.