Summer 2011

[abbaman]

So you are saying that the period February through to April will become gradually more unsettled with HP becoming less dominant. I tend to agree with you. I just have a hunch that late Spring will see a much longer spell of unsettled weather. If i knew when it would be i would time my annual leave at work not to coincide with it

No Hp with us forseable future as feb march and some of April are having HP. As I have read an report of waether for the summer but you need to PM for my E-mail details but that will be posted with in a fornight as it on my big HD. If you read the CFS jet stream on here and CFS readings on metcheck.com.

[Milhouse]

I was thinking what we are most overdue in relation to summer. I think no.1 would be above average sunshine for the whole country, particularly for July. Secondly we've gone a long time without an above average August. 2003 was the last proper good August. 2009 attempted to address the balance but for those away from the SE it will be remembered as a rather unsettled windy month. Also the east/west split is in serious need of being evened out. The past 4 summers have really shown great differences between east and west so it would be nice for those in the west to report some decent summer weather for a change and not endless low cloud and drizzle, However not at the expense of us in the east.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The Met Office sunshine maps indicate that the south-western third of Britain has fared particularly badly sunshine wise in the Julys and Augusts of the past four years- even August 2009 and July 2010, which were characterised by a NW-SE split in terms of temperatures and rainfall, had much of the SW report similar negative sunshine anomalies to the NW.

[Summer of 95]

I was thinking what we are most overdue in relation to summer. I think no.1 would be above average sunshine for the whole country, particularly for July. Secondly we've gone a long time without an above average August. 2003 was the last proper good August. 2009 attempted to address the balance but for those away from the SE it will be remembered as a rather unsettled windy month. Also the east/west split is in serious need of being evened out. The past 4 summers have really shown great differences between east and west so it would be nice for those in the west to report some decent summer weather for a change and not endless low cloud and drizzle, However not at the expense of us in the east.

What August has lacked recently hasn't been high CET values (these cloudy Augusts get into the 16s and even 17s because of their warm nights), but really hot days and prolonged sunny weather. We haven't hit 25C in August since 2007, and the last really good August wasn't 2003 but 1995. 2003 was actually duller than average here, and only had one really warm day. July 2006 and August 1995 wiped the floor with August 2003.

As for July, we must have used up 10 years' worth of summer weather in 2006, as every one since has been awful. Either very wet, very dull or both. June has been the saviour of the last 4 summers, even 2007 when it wasn't too bad in th efirst half.

[conor123]

Id really like to see the ultimate Spanish Plume set up this year aswell, every year there's posts in the storm discussion threads of how great thunderstorm setups used to be and id love to experience a real monster storm.

[Costa Del Fal]

Im beginning to look forward to those long spring and summer days and the warmth they can offer. The first half of Summer 2010 was brilliant here. At least it wasnt wet but was let down by late July and August.

My total guess for Spring 2011 is mostly cool but good sunny spells at times with occasional wintry showers-> The Atlantic still offering little influence. Moving into Summer a gradual warm up with some resemblances to that of 2010 but more sunshine on offer especially in the 2nd half of summer. However i shall guess that there wont be any massive heatwaves in 2011 but plenty of pleasant warm or very warm/brief hot spells for most interspersed with some cooler, wetter periods. Thunderstorm wise, id say better than 2010 but still not great.

[CroatianWeather]

After long pause of me posting in this topic,I can't not to say something...

I know you had last few summers pretty bad(2010 was maybe little better)

but I think that this year you still won't see hot and dry summer....that's big chance of La nina continue through spring and QBO going slightly negative....and don't foget solar minimum which gives us patterns like in last summers.....that all indicates a COOL AND PRETTY WET SPRING AND SUMMER 2011 !I don't say that will be so,I am not sure,but teleconections and actual weather patterns,and some climate factors don't give you in West and North Europe a big chance for "good" summer........

That is all for now....

Edited January 23, 2011 by CroatianWeather

[Alex]

You are so cheerful Croatian!

I still think summer will be similar to last year with a NW/SE split across the UK but i think it's likely to be better in august this year.

I also think La Nina will die out and become neutral by mid summer which is why August sld be better.

[Milhouse]

With all this HP around at the moment i can see it being a warm and settled Spring if it were to hang around. Or is this year going to be another one of those years where HP loses its influence just when we get to the point where it would be capable of delivering warmth.

[Alex]

What's your prediction abbaman for spring/summer?

[Milhouse]

Same as millhoues one.

I havent made a Summer prediction yet so i dont know which one you have seen. Its far too early for me and besides, i am not knowledgeable enough to be looking beyond the range of the models. All i did say was i can see at least the first half of Spring to be settled with a lot of high pressure due to the persistence of the current pattern.

[Alex]

I think Milhouse was saying it could go either way, it wasn't a prediction as such.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It would be interesting to do a correlation analysis on anticyclonicity in late January/early February and the anticyclonicity into the spring. I have a suspicion that it won't return much of a correlation. An extreme case of an anticyclonic February/March duo occurred in 1993, but low pressure returned with avengeance during April 1993.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/table.html

I was wondering earlier whether La Nina really was bad bad for summer and as such took a look at the data.

For the puposes of this post, i included a strong La Nina as having all three summer values of -1+ and a regular La Nina as weaker than that but all three summer months negative.

Weakening

1952

1962

1968

1974

1978

2000

June: 14.4 (-0.1)

July: 15.8 (-0.9)

August: 15.6 (-0.

Strengthening

1960

1961

1967

1970

1973

1981

1984

1985

1988

1989

1996

1999

2007

2010

June: 14.6 (+0.1)

July: 16.5 (-0.2)

August: 16.1 (-0.3)

Strengthening Strong La Nina

1950

1954

1955

1956

1971

June: 14.3 (-0.2)

July: 16.0 (-0.7)

August: 15.8 (-0.6)

Weakening Strong La Nina

1964

1975

June: 14.3 (-0.2)

July: 16.8 (+0.1)

August: 17.1 (+0.7)

New 1981-2010 averages

JAN: 4.4C (4.2C)

FEB: 4.4C (4.2C)

MAR: 6.6C (6.3C)

APR: 8.5C (8.1C)

MAY: 11.7C (11.3C)

JUN: 14.5C (14.1C)

JUL: 16.7C (16.5C)

AUG: 16.4C (16.2C)

SEP: 14.0C (13.7C)

OCT: 10.7C (10.4C)

NOV: 7.1C (6.9C)

DEC: 4.6C (5.1C)

You can see above that a weakening regular La Nina produces the poorest summers temperature wise (it is likely we will see these conditions this summer). The most suprising result was probably that a weakening strong La Nina produces a warm August.

[Alex]

I think it's about time we had a really good August (2009 was good) but could of been even better! 2006, 07, 08 and 2010 augusts were all poor.

A hot plume can give some extremely high temps in august too!

[conor123]

The problem with August 2009 is there were many occasions in which a warm spell got tantilizingly close but never made it,

E.g

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/2009/avn/Rtavn00220090807.png

The block was just a little bit to far east and thus most had a rather cloudy atlantic influenced setup.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/2009/avn/Rtavn00220090820.png

The atlantic was just that bit to strong for most though the South East did alright im sure?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/2009/avn/Rtavn00220090824.png

Again the atlantic got to strong just as the warm air started advecting north from the continent.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/2009/avn/Rtavn00220090831.png

And again the Azores/Euro High wasn't quite strong enough to keep the atlantic at bay.

[AderynCoch]

August 2009 was frustrating here for the reasons you mention conor.

July 2010 however really took the biscuit: the heat set up shop nearby but I not only missed out on it but ended up with weeks upon weeks of cloud and lots of heavy rain to boot. I really could do without another prolonged NW/SE split this summer, not to mention yet another dull, wet July!

Edited January 24, 2011 by AderynCoch

[Thundery wintry showers]

Opinions on August 2009 are bound to vary depending on where you lived at the time of the month. In many western areas it was a dull month (though nothing like as dull as August 2008), it was windy in the north, and it was wet in western Scotland. Conversely East Anglia and the SE had a warm dry sunny month (in Norwich the first half was quite cloudy, but the third week was very sunny). In Tyne and Wear the month was notably warm and dry, but also notably windy, with close to average sunshine.

July 2010 had a lot in common with August 2009 but the NW-SE split was even more marked, with wetter and much duller conditions over most northern and western areas, while East Anglia and the southeast as discussed earlier were exceptionally warm.

An earlier example of a summer month with a NW-SE split was August 1998- a distinctly un-memorable month in Tyne and Wear, dry, windy and slightly cooler and cloudier than average, associated with westerlies on the northern flank of a persistent Azores ridge, while in the meantime London had notably warm days, cool nights and a sunshine excess approaching 40%. As a few posts in the convective discussion thread have noted, this sort of "NW-SE divide" setup is also one of the worst around if it's heavy shower activity & thunderstorms that you're after.

[Bottesford]

Now I've returned from my hols in Barbados it got me thinking about night mimima. The nights were around 24-25c minimum which was indeed lovely in t-shirt and shorts (but does require AC for sleeping). Does anyone know the highest night minima we've had and could possibly get here in the UK?

A humid, direct southerly would no doubt be the synoptics required - what's the highest 850 values we've ever had? Seem to remember 17c as a possible from maybe August 2003 hot spell?

[reef]

Now I've returned from my hols in Barbados it got me thinking about night mimima. The nights were around 24-25c minimum which was indeed lovely in t-shirt and shorts (but does require AC for sleeping). Does anyone know the highest night minima we've had and could possibly get here in the UK?

A humid, direct southerly would no doubt be the synoptics required - what's the highest 850 values we've ever had? Seem to remember 17c as a possible from maybe August 2003 hot spell?

Heathrow managed a min of 21.2C on 2nd August 1995 and had mins of 20C a couple of times in 2003.

Here the highest minima Ive ever recorded is 18.3C set on 10th August 1991 and then again on 2nd July 2010.

I suspect 20-22C is about the highest in the far south-east under extremely hot upper air. The majority of notable hot spells manage 18-20C down there.

As for 850hPa temperatures, the 22C line just touched the south coast in August 2003:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2003/Rrea00220030810.gif

[Alex]

My grandad recorded a min of 22.4c in Chelmsford once before (think it was 1995?) and last year a min of 19.6 was recorded by me on the night of 9th July again in Chelmsford Essex, had loads of nights around 16-18c mins last year.

[AderynCoch]

The UK record highest minimum is 23.9C at Brighton on 3rd August 1990.

[Milhouse]

The UK record highest minimum is 23.9C at Brighton on 3rd August 1990.

I would expect the 3rd August 1990 to have the highest 24 hour mean on record. 30C was achieved over such a wide area.

[AderynCoch]

I would expect the 3rd August 1990 to have the highest 24 hour mean on record. 30C was achieved over such a wide area.

That honour goes to 29th July 1948, with a CET mean of 25.2C.

3rd August 1990 managed 24.4C, which is still very impressive.

[Bottesford]

Cheers everyone. Here's to getting some of those kinds of values this summer! Fingers crossed.