Summer 2011

[reef]

Interesting some mention April 2010 for being a very dry month. However here May 2010 was even drier with only 9.0mm in total. It was also sunnier than average, despite being the coolest since 1996. It was one of those examples that goes to prove it can be very dry and sunny in spring even if it isnt always very warm. The whole spring was excellent here on the sunshine and rainfall front:

March: 39.7mm (87%) and 143hrs (136%), -0.3C below average

April: 23.9mm (56%) and 188hrs (134%), +1.1C above average

May: 9.0mm (21%) and 222hrs (114%), -0.5C below average

It did lack in variety a little (except for May), but it was notably better than many recent springs and drier and almost as sunny as 2003.

[Weather-history]

We are well overdue an April at least 0.5C below the average for the CET. After recent months, it must be only a matter of time.

Last occasion for 1971-2000 averages

January 2011

February 2010

March 2006

April 1989

May 2010

June 1991

July 2007

August 2010

September 1994

October 2008

November 2010

December 2010

April, June and September are what I would call on a very stretched statistical elastic band. If the other months can achieve this goal then it is only a matter of time before the band snaps and these months will do this as well.

Edited February 11, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Summer of 95]

Interesting some mention April 2010 for being a very dry month. However here May 2010 was even drier with only 9.0mm in total. It was also sunnier than average, despite being the coolest since 1996. It was one of those examples that goes to prove it can be very dry and sunny in spring even if it isnt always very warm. The whole spring was excellent here on the sunshine and rainfall front:

March: 39.7mm (87%) and 143hrs (136%), -0.3C below average

April: 23.9mm (56%) and 188hrs (134%), +1.1C above average

May: 9.0mm (21%) and 222hrs (114%), -0.5C below average

It did lack in variety a little (except for May), but it was notably better than many recent springs and drier and almost as sunny as 2003.

May 2010 may have been the coolest since 1996, but it still had the hottest day of last year here. Combined with the frost only ten days before, it didn't lack in temperature variety although it did in terms of convective/thundery weather.

That a May with a CET of 10.7 can give a higher maximum than a July with a CET of 17.1 really doesn't seem right somehow............

[Summer of 95]

Last occasion for 1971-2000 averages

January 2011

February 2010

March 2006

April 1989

May 2010

June 1991

July 2007

August 2010

September 1994

October 2007

November 2010

December 2010

April, June and September are what I would call on a very stretched statistical elastic band. If the other months can achieve this goal then it is only a matter of time before the band snaps and these months will do this as well.

September 2001 was below average wasn't it?

EDIT: Sorry, that 's the 81-10 average I was looking at, it was more than 0.5C below that but not 71-00!

Edited February 11, 2011 by Summer of 95

[conor123]

In an ideal world i'd like it to be sunny every single day without fail from 1st May - 1st September with convective clouds bubbling up around 5pm/6pm three times a day to give two beastly thunderstorms a week, one with dramatic lightning and cloudscapes, scuds, dramatic winds around sunset, one massive all nighter storm with crazy lightning and booming thunder and a good dumping of rain to keep the gardens happy.

Aka my ideal summer week with the days altering around of course week by week;

Max Min

Day 1: Sunny 25c 14c Clear Night

Day 2: Sunny 26c 16c Clear Night

Day 3: Sunny 28c 13c Thunderstorm [Humid]

Day 4: Sunny 20c 11c Clear Night [Fresh Day for recovery]

Day 5: Sunny 24c 13c Thunderstorm

Day 6: Sunny 26c 15c Clear Night

Day 7: Sunny 26c 15c Clear Night

Edited February 11, 2011 by conor123

[damianslaw]

Spring 2010 was preety non-descript weatherwise, though it did have some cold periods, the first half of March was particularly cold with many nightime frosts. We also had a very cold snap in May and then our hottest day of the whole year towards the end of the month. Out of the three May was perhaps the most interesting. April 2010 was very non-descript indeed.

Many recent Aprils' have been mild with little cold weather - just a few short lived cold spells such as in early Apr 08 and 05 with northerly winds. It can be the most exciting month for weather with major swings between warmth and cold. Apr 07 was positively summery - quite an exceptional month akin to how exceptional Dec 10 was in terms of cold.

I like a spring with lots of variety, the last one was 1995 with everything thrown into the mix. Early warmth in April unnerves me more than warmth in May it is rarely a precursor to a good summer - 1987 and 2007 being two cases in point.

The last cold April in 1989 was incidentally followed by a cracking summer - better than 1990 in my book and the second best since 1976 - the best being 1995, summer 89 beat the likes of 2006 and 2003 hands down even though it never saw the exceptional warmth of those summers, it saw weeks of clear sunny warm skies. It gets forgotton about coming just before 1990 and because it never saw record breaking heat. Indeed 1989 was an exceptionally warm benign year all round.

[Bottesford]

In an ideal world i'd like it to be sunny every single day without fail from 1st May - 1st September with convective clouds bubbling up around 5pm/6pm three times a day to give two beastly thunderstorms a week, one with dramatic lightning and cloudscapes, scuds, dramatic winds around sunset, one massive all nighter storm with crazy lightning and booming thunder and a good dumping of rain to keep the gardens happy.

Aka my ideal summer week with the days altering around of course week by week;

Max Min

Day 1: Sunny 25c 14c Clear Night

Day 2: Sunny 26c 16c Clear Night

Day 3: Sunny 28c 13c Thunderstorm [Humid]

Day 4: Sunny 20c 11c Clear Night [Fresh Day for recovery]

Day 5: Sunny 24c 13c Thunderstorm

Day 6: Sunny 26c 15c Clear Night

Day 7: Sunny 26c 15c Clear Night

Good weather (so long as the thunderstorm/fresh days were not the weekend/pub night!) but definitely add 5c to most of those temperatures.

For me I'm happy with 25c as a max (although 28c is probably my ideal) but the min must be no lower than 16c preferably 18c. 11c in summer is just too chilly unless you're talking exposed rural/coastal places. Certainly here in the city I'd want 15c as the absolute min I'd see late May to early Sept. I want to sit out till midnight in t-shirt and shorts without getting cold. If I must spend large parts of winter wearing 4 layers/burning half the North Sea gas reserve and still not being warm then it's only fair!

I'd love an extremely sunny summer. 2006 was the last one for at least June/July - where you felt like the sun was just always there without interruption. A summer where it was near enough clear skies 24 hours every single day with perhaps the odd hefty thunderstorm at a convenient time! I live in hope... or move to Mercury...

[conor123]

Good weather (so long as the thunderstorm/fresh days were not the weekend/pub night!) but definitely add 5c to most of those temperatures.

For me I'm happy with 25c as a max (although 28c is probably my ideal) but the min must be no lower than 16c preferably 18c. 11c in summer is just too chilly unless you're talking exposed rural/coastal places. Certainly here in the city I'd want 15c as the absolute min I'd see late May to early Sept. I want to sit out till midnight in t-shirt and shorts without getting cold. If I must spend large parts of winter wearing 4 layers/burning half the North Sea gas reserve and still not being warm then it's only fair!

I'd love an extremely sunny summer. 2006 was the last one for at least June/July - where you felt like the sun was just always there without interruption. A summer where it was near enough clear skies 24 hours every single day with perhaps the odd hefty thunderstorm at a convenient time! I live in hope... or move to Mercury...

Ideally if im going camping minimum temperatures of 16c+ are ideal, certainly for V Festival the redeeming factor about the awful damp weather last year was the humid south westerlies kept it around 16/17c Friday/Saturday, i remember the year before it got down to around 8/9c on the Friday Night and felt bitter (gorgeous weather the rest of the weekend however).

When im home though as room is a suntrap it can get very stuffy after a hot day so it's always nice to have a cool night to freshen it up or at least low humidity, i do love humid days though if it means a storm is brewing, though unfortunately the last few summers theres been long spells of high humidity and muggy nights with nothing to show for it but overcast skies.

Edited February 11, 2011 by conor123

[Bottesford]

Yes I'm not a great fan of endless cloudy humid spells either. They make for nice evenings to sit out in but without the night sky/northern twilight glow it's just not the same.

Humid days with clear skies are spot on though - max of 25c with high humidity and lots of sunshine, then a clear humid night min of 16-18c with thunderstorms on some nights is perfect.

Had my house insulated this winter so expecting to be a lot hotter than the last few years - we're already noticing it during this 'mild' spell- our room was warm all last night (previously you got 2 or so hours before the chill kicked in). Upside is I can have the window open at lower outside temperature which is great as I really miss getting air in the house during winter.

[Eugene]

I have a feeling the charts are starting early a very frustrating 8 months or so of model watching, hope i'm wrong but the signs are there.

[Snowyowl9]

We`re definately overdue a cold april,we get cold snaps with snow heavy snow at times 1998/2000 even last april gave lying snow on the 1st.

That was the coldest april day here since 2001.

How about an april like 1986 with snow lying for most of the month as I remember,followed by an april like 1987.

A bit of variety like that.

[Milhouse]

I have a feeling the charts are starting early a very frustrating 8 months or so of model watching, hope i'm wrong but the signs are there.

Model watching can be frustrating any time of year. Seeing a lovely summer plume certainly makes up for it though.

A few charts to get us in the mood:

[damianslaw]

Model watching can be frustrating any time of year. Seeing a lovely summer plume certainly makes up for it though.

A few charts to get us in the mood:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2006/Rrea00120060612.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950811.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1989/Rrea00119890722.gif

Nice charts - but I'm not in summer mode camp - very much winter mode camp still and it will be a very long time before we see such charts.. Bring them back in May when many of us will be ready for summer..

Edited February 13, 2011 by reef
Removed quoted images

[Isolated Frost]

Interesting that there is a trough S of Greenland on all of them charts, they look so DREAMY! But a possible Scandi High will keep me happy currently...

[MP-R]

I'd like a wet, thundery may, a June consisting of the 1st half of June 2006 and the 2nd half of June 2005; a July with the 1st half of July 2005 and the 2nd half of July 2006 as these two months give the strongest sun of the summer, and then a pleasant August like 2005 (which still had variety). I'm really not bothered about nice Septembers though.

[Snowyowl9]

April variety with warm SE-lys and a thunderstorm/thundery showers at the beginning from 2002.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2002/Rrea00120020403.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2002/sfloc/Rsfloc20020402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2002/sfloc/Rsfloc20020403.gif

To a severe winter blizzard at the last quarter of the month,with thundersnow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1981/Rrea00119810420.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1981/Rrea00119810425.gif

Now that would be a month worth seeing again,a mix of those two.

Looks like april 1981 is the april of the century for outstanding weather.

Some would say 2007 was the april of the century.

1986 april of the century for me as it was the 2nd coldest of the century snow unlike now didn`t thaw quick in april,and there was a very warm/very humid thundery plume to look forward to at the very last day through into beginning of may.

[Thundery wintry showers]

April 1986 had a fair amount of snow at high levels but in lowland Britain there was a lot of dull sleety type weather marked by consistent rather than outstanding cold- I have doubts.

I certainly wouldn't say "no" to an April like 1981 though!

[damianslaw]

Just two week to go till official spring starts. Would like to see some proper forecasts for the spring.

Also suggest this thread is split with a new spring 2011 thread started - with peoples forecasts and one for summer 2011.

In fact I am going to do this - hope moderators don't mind but I think it is only fair spring 2011 gets its own focused thread and summer a separate one they are very different seasons.

[UV-RAY]

Well I'm still favouring a cold spring with frequent night time frost, with even the odd fall of snow thrown in for good measure. For me a warm start to June, will quickly give way to a Summer of cold and wet conditions. Northern blocking will once again be established, but with a far more active Atlantic than last year, and the jet tracking just to our South, this will lead to a very cold and wet Summer.

I for one will be quite pleased if my forecast is right, as I hate hot and humid conditions.

[Milhouse]

Well I'm still favouring a cold spring with frequent night time frost, with even the odd fall of snow thrown in for good measure. For me a warm start to June, will quickly give way to a Summer of cold and wet conditions. Northern blocking will once again be established, but with a far more active Atlantic than last year, and the jet tracking just to our South, this will lead to a very cold and wet Summer.

A very cold summer? I assume you mean relatively speaking.

[Bottesford]

Sub 20c maxima and sub 13c minima counts as cold for me in summer!

I do remember some horrible sub 16c maxima days in July 2007 as the rain poured. Very depressing it was. Distinctly remember sat in the pub with friends on one of those days, everyone moping about how awful the weather was. Hopefully no repeats this year.

[Isolated Frost]

Perfect Summer Week:

Monday - HP over Mid-Atlantic, LP systems in the Baltic - cool, slack N'ly flow with some convective showers and warmth in the sun. Low Humidity. 19C/7C

Tuesday - HP in Continental Europe moves NW and Atlantic High sinks - LP systems move in from the Atlantic. Warmer E/SE wind with some low cloud in the Far North East. 23C/11C

Wednesday - HP surges NW and a much slacker flow is upon us, very warm, with 15C uppers edging in, 25C/14C

Thursday - HP sets up in the Benelux region, with warm winds from the Med pushing in bringing Higher Humidity, LP systems still stuck out west. 28C/17C

Friday - Sun. 30C/19C

Saturday - Sunnier Sun. 31C/20C

Sunday - Scorcher. 33C/19C

[butler_son]

Perfect Summer Week:

Monday - HP over Mid-Atlantic, LP systems in the Baltic - cool, slack N'ly flow with some convective showers and warmth in the sun. Low Humidity. 19C/7C

Tuesday - HP in Continental Europe moves NW and Atlantic High sinks - LP systems move in from the Atlantic. Warmer E/SE wind with some low cloud in the Far North East. 23C/11C

Wednesday - HP surges NW and a much slacker flow is upon us, very warm, with 15C uppers edging in, 25C/14C

Thursday - HP sets up in the Benelux region, with warm winds from the Med pushing in bringing Higher Humidity, LP systems still stuck out west. 28C/17C

Friday - Sun. 30C/19C

Saturday - Sunnier Sun. 31C/20C

Sunday - Scorcher. 33C/19C

You forgot to add on Tuesday: drive 300 miles further south. 33 degrees would be exceptional for your part of the world, it's not often achieved here!

[MP-R]

April variety with warm SE-lys and a thunderstorm/thundery showers at the beginning from 2002.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2002/Rrea00120020403.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2002/sfloc/Rsfloc20020402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2002/sfloc/Rsfloc20020403.gif

I remember that thunderstorm, came quite unexpectedly and gave a notable dumping of rain. Is there a link to the general lightning archive on wetterzentrale as opposed to just those particular days? Thanks.

[Weather-history]

Aprils colder than February for CET

1702

Feb: 6.7

Apr: 5.8

1739

Feb: 6.8

Apr: 6.7

1790

Feb: 6.6

Apr: 6.1

1809

Feb: 5.7

Apr: 5.2

1903

Feb: 7.1

Apr: 6.4

5 times it has happened