Summer 2011

[Alex]

Wonder what the biggest rise in temp between night and day is?

I can't wait for summer now!!! Anyone have any updates on la Nina and such conditions ?

[Ben_Cambs]

Wonder what the biggest rise in temp between night and day is?

I can't wait for summer now!!! Anyone have any updates on la Nina and such conditions ?

The CFS has La Nina persisting through the Summer, though weakening from its current state

http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf

Most other models do also agree about La Nina persisting through the Summer, though again, most of them have La Nina in a weaker state than it is now.

Cheers everyone. Here's to getting some of those kinds of values this summer! Fingers crossed.

I've experienced 32C minima at night in Egypt and all I can say is thank goodness for air conditioning... :lol:

Edited January 27, 2011 by Ben_Cambs

[Kentish Kiwi]

That honour goes to 29th July 1948, with a CET mean of 25.2C.

3rd August 1990 managed 24.4C, which is still very impressive.

A mean of 25C is pretty impressive, would be interesting to see what the NZ equivalent record of that is, I'd be pretty confident it would be higher of course but I doubt there would be something that could be fairly compared with the CET (ie the central core of New Zealand), or something with such an extent of historical data.

The CFS has La Nina persisting through the Summer, though weakening from its current state

http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf

Most other models do also agree about La Nina persisting through the Summer, though again, most of them have La Nina in a weaker state than it is now.

I've experienced 32C minima at night in Egypt and all I can say is thank goodness for air conditioning... :lol:

Yeah, I experienced an overnight low of 29C in the south of Portugal last summer after a high at the top of the 30's, without air conditioning. Was pretty nasty, but you'd be surprised at how much of a difference a prolonged cold shower straight before bed, followed by two fans pointing directly at your body can help...

Edited January 27, 2011 by Kentish Kiwi

[AderynCoch]

31C is my highest minimum (Shanghai, 20th July 2009). How they managed there before air-conditioning came along I have no idea.

[Milhouse]

Wonder what the biggest rise in temp between night and day is?

I can't wait for summer now!!! Anyone have any updates on la Nina and such conditions ?

Dont know what is is regards the CET but on the 18th April 2003 the difference in temperature at Altnaharra was a massive 28.2C. Min -3.7c Max 24.5c. I suspect that day would be pretty close to holding the record for the CET as well. However how common would it be for 30c days in Summer to follow relatively cool nights?

[Bottesford]

Thing I found when on holiday was that when we first arrived - fresh from the that really really cold December - we needed AC on quite a lot. But after a few days we were barely using it at all. I find acclimatising to warmth only takes 2-3 days whereas acclimatising to cold takes much much longer - if at all.

e.g. It was cold for many many weeks Nov-Dec but still you keep the heating burning the only acclimatisation being finding that 5-7c now doesn't feel too cold anymore.

So I don't think people struggled too much before AC in reality.

[Alex]

It's called climatising! I went to the lake district last summer when I left it was 29c in Essex, when I got to the lakes it was 19c and it felt cold! Had a coat and jumper on for first two days lol!

[Thundery wintry showers]

There may well be limits to how easily we acclimatise though, which may also vary from individual to individual.

I went to the Provence region of France for a fortnight in August 2010 and maximum temperatures were regularly in the region of 30 to 35C, and minima of 15 to 20C. My experience was much the opposite of the "acclimatising" ones- I coped very well during the first few days, but then increasingly suffered from heat-related exhaustion as the rest of the holiday went on.

Conversely I seemed to acclimatise rather well to the severe cold in December 2010- although I think I'd have struggled if there had been a cold wind accompanying the freeze!

[AderynCoch]

Dont know what is is regards the CET but on the 18th April 2003 the difference in temperature at Altnaharra was a massive 28.2C. Min -3.7c Max 24.5c. I suspect that day would be pretty close to holding the record for the CET as well. However how common would it be for 30c days in Summer to follow relatively cool nights?

Tummel Bridge achieved a diurnal temperature range of 29.0C (-7.0C to 22.0C) on 9th May 1978. I believe that's the UK record.

Other notable ranges include 28.9C at Altnaharra on 30th December 1995 (-27.2C to 1.7C) and 28.3C at Rickmansworth on 29th August 1936 (1.1C to 29.4C).

[daboss]

It would be great to have a month of proper Summer, just like the month of proper Winter we had.

Summer in Scotland will probably be just the usual, nice warm May, 2 great weeks in June then all downhill after that.

The Glasgow Fair weekend in July will be raining as always, and we will be talking about how we are going to have an Indian Summer....but it will never happen.

Hopefully, on the other hand, we might just get a longlasting Summer to remember... We used to get them now and then, and we are overdue another.

As long as you all can tell me when its Spring, the frost had gone, and I can plant my flower seeds, i'm happy.

[Alex]

Anyone know where I can get official stats for Writtle weather station in Essex. The met off use it but dont advertise hourly recordings?

[Isolated Frost]

Anyone know where I can get official stats for Writtle weather station in Essex. The met off use it but dont advertise hourly recordings?

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/world-weather/weather-stations/obsid/99127.html

You can see the temperature readings each hour, as updated below the graph

[conor123]

And of course it's not just September nowadays that ends up time and time again with sypnotics that would be perfect for mid Summer, its also October.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/2010/avn/Rtavn00220101009.png

Just imagine how scorching that chart from last year would of been had it come in July, 23c was reached that day for many, 10c higher widely would of been likely had it been 3 months earlier.

[CroatianWeather]

Yes you can just dream because I think there is no chance for this pattern to happen this summer 2011 ! Hahahahah,just joke...

I don't want to be rude , but I give you really small chances of some heatwaves or long hot summer....yes,I also expect you'll have one-two warm and settled periodes but this summer will be simillar to summer 2008 in my opinion.So rainier and cooler for you in UK.....

stay tuned !!!! , for few days I will give my DETAILED FORECAST FOR SUMMER 2011 IN EUROPE in this topic........ :lol:

Enjoy weekend!

[Costa Del Fal]

At least summer 2008 was much more thundery than 2009 and 2010!!! 28th July 2008...i say no more. Was the most humid day of my life too. Then all hell broke loose.

[Alex]

You keep saying this Croatian! No offence but I just think it's an excuse to big up Croatia lol. No one really knows it's all stupid really! Anything is up for grabs. La Nina patterns are similar to 1976 and we had hottest summer ever then!

[CroatianWeather]

You keep saying this Croatian! No offence but I just think it's an excuse to big up Croatia lol. No one really knows it's all stupid really! Anything is up for grabs. La Nina patterns are similar to 1976 and we had hottest summer ever then!

Hhahahah,Alex....

You say this year is similar to 1976....I wouldn't say so....And it was a long time ago,30 years.....so I don't like to find simillarities from far past.

This pattern,this January and as we can see,first part of February, looks very similar to Jan,Feb of 2008....

I SAID,I WILL GIVE MY DETAILED FORECAST FOR SUMMER IN WHOLE EUROPE FOR FEW DAYS...MAYBE TOMORROW IF I AM NOT VERY BUSY....

[Alex]

I'd already take a punt at June and august being ok or good and July being poor, I'll explain why later and of course this could change!

[Isolated Frost]

My renewed predictions are for a cool Spring, with wintry outbreaks throughout March and April, with mainly Pm air, with some Am incursions, and HP to the west/swest, giving Westerly flows mostly, and a very snowy end of season for the Highlands/Pennines. I think May will be continue along the theme, if not a bit more unsettled, with Atlantic lows pushing in at times, and warmer, wetter weather, possibly drier for the East.

For summer, I think June will be average, and very wet/not sunny, with Tm and Pm air dominating, and HP to the s-west, LP to the north. July will become warmer and drier, with Tc incursions and heatwave conditions in some Southern areas, as HP moves to Continental Europe, and Lows are stuck in Iceland, August may be the warmest month, with a very Tropical dominated outlook, with SE and East wind bringing sunshine and dryness, with 30C being eclipsed at times. I expect a cooler outlook into September, with some Southerly outbreaks.

[Alex]

Very similar to 1995 summer then isolated frost? I agree with you on august I think it'll be warm or very warm with hot spells. I think we'll have less extremes though so no months with 200% rainfall or 5mm of rain! June generally always starts with warm sunny weather and then it goes either way. Any reason why youve predicted what you have isolated frost?

[damianslaw]

Its a long way off still, but I expect Spring to start off on a notably cold note if the signs for an increasingly colder set up as we move through Feb verify. Indeed in recent years we have seen many cold starts to Spring, 2004, 2005 and 2006 all began with cold air either from the north or east. Last year began cold with an anticylonic spell and some cold air from the near continent.

[snowlover2009]

Recent years and experience in my area for spring/summer weather is the usual dry and sunny april with the warmest temperatures of the year in the high teens at times. A couple of rainy days in april, May warm and dry again with the odd week of crap weather and a week of notable very warm condition. Summer approaches looks to start off good and gos down the drain at the end of June and you do not see summer till the next year or until September, however we did not get much of an extended summer in September last year either. April, may and June here were fantastic. Particularly June, i remember going for my job interview and going to meet the managers to sign papers and agreements, health and safety checks, and walking home in the clear blue skies and warm evenings! When I started my job around mid june, the weather just seemed to be constantly great for once!

[snowlover2009]

Hhahahah,Alex....

You say this year is similar to 1976....I wouldn't say so....And it was a long time ago,30 years.....so I don't like to find simillarities from far past.

This pattern,this January and as we can see,first part of February, looks very similar to Jan,Feb of 2008....

I SAID,I WILL GIVE MY DETAILED FORECAST FOR SUMMER IN WHOLE EUROPE FOR FEW DAYS...MAYBE TOMORROW IF I AM NOT VERY BUSY....

Well the pattern last year was similar to 1976 through spring and summer, but 1976 never had a November and December like the ones just gone! I like to pattern match sometimes, but these are the sort of things you need to remember. Saying it is similar to 2008? Does not mean nothing, there is other factors with the la nina state etc. However, this January has been very average, not too cold, not too mild, Jan 2008 was very mild and wet! Jan 2008 was a very typical January like in the 90s and 00s.

However i would not say know to to spring 2008, wasn't that the spring with the hot may??? It was also the year with 2nd wettest summer after 2007 wasn't it?

I am worried though, summer blizzard posted all the recent years that match this years la nina pattern and it included some of the worst summers and 2007 and 2008 i think? What is more worrying is the tendancy for southerly tracking jet is much stronger and more frequent, we know this from the recent cold november and december on record and winter 2009/10 and these were after wet summers before 2008. If anything it could be similar to 2007 and 2008 or slightly worse. However if this the jet ends up so far south like recent winters, the channel lows and big rain deluges may not track right towards us, as the jet in 2007 and 2008 was constantly over us or just around the channel I think making it frequently wet.

I am really split to what could happen, one half says a dry summer at least or a wet summer, with one or two heatwaves. Got a good feeling about April and May and maybe the start of summer.

[Isolated Frost]

Very similar to 1995 summer then isolated frost? I agree with you on august I think it'll be warm or very warm with hot spells. I think we'll have less extremes though so no months with 200% rainfall or 5mm of rain! June generally always starts with warm sunny weather and then it goes either way. Any reason why youve predicted what you have isolated frost?

Opposite of last year IMO. El Nino - La Nina - QBO - NAO/AO - Current Pattern and Pressure Positioning

Average February

Cold early Spring - March, April

Cool early Summer - May, June, July

Warm end Summer - August, September

[UV-RAY]

Anyone hoping for a hot summer better get the prozac out now, once La Nina relinquishes it's vice like grip those heights to our North will once again return. I expect a cold start to spring, a brief warm up in June, then a rinse and repeat of the last 3 summers.