Summer 2011

[Thundery wintry showers]

On average, May is the sunniest month of the year over Scotland (especially the west), Ireland and north-west England, because the westerlies typically reach a minimum frequency in spring and then increase in frequency from mid-June onwards. Cumbria is particularly cloudy and wet in westerly airstreams because most of the region consists of high ground, resulting in orographic enhancement, while the North East experiences a pronounced rain shadow effect.

For warmth and sunshine the North East suffers mainly from being too far north, particularly as the topography of the British Isles changes markedly north of Yorkshire. I spent the period September 2005-August 2006 in Leeds and was quite astonished at the difference in climate of the summer half-year- a good degree or two warmer by day, a lot more prone to heatwaves, considerably less windy, and also a lot more prone to thunderstorms. I don't think Leeds is significantly sunnier than the Tyne and Wear area, but there tend to be more days with broken cloud and sunny intervals as opposed to the more "all or nothing" tendency of sunshine in the North East.

I'm aware that this period included that phenomenal July when Cleadon had a mean maximum of 23C, and Leeds's mean maximum was more like 25 or 26C, but in May, June and August, which were less remarkable, those differences were still pretty marked. For instance during the fine spell in the first 12 days of June, Cleadon had a frequent cold wind off the North Sea and occasional sea fret while at Leeds we were sitting outside in t-shirts at 7pm. There was a warm spell in the second week of May 2006 when it was much the same.

[Alex]

I do love living in Essex for the reason that yes we arent far from the east or south coast but we aren't prone to low cloud in summer, in spring or autumn we can sometimes get it but it burns off generally by 10/11am, April 07 is a good example- it often got warm and sunny by 11am and temps although started at around 15-16c they quickly Rose to above 20c on the warmer days.

[summer blizzard]

I think this "quota" thing is reminiscent of the concerns about us having a "quota" of cold snowy weather and thus lamenting the fact that we had such a cold snowy start to the season. It's true that extremely cold weather tends to have a low "staying power" early in the season, resulting in the severe cold relaxing its grip into January and February, but this can range from a 1981/82 type scenario to a scenario where it remains snowy but the bouts of severe cold become less persistent.

Talking of which, while 2010/11 may well feature a similar progression to 1981/82, I have a hunch that it may end up more akin to the very topsy turvy season of 1890/91. 1890/91 had that record cold December that 2010 just failed to beat in CET-land, followed by a milder January, a notably mild dry sunny February with similar synoptics to 8-20 February 2008... and then a switch to very cold snowy weather in early March. The teleconnections for February are consistent with this, and so is the recent link between La Nina events and snow events during the spring.

As for high pressure I don't think there is a link between high pressure in winter and high pressure in summer. Interestingly, in the last 50 years hot summers have been correlated with notable warm spells in the preceding spring (1976, 1984, 1989, 1990, 1995 and 2003 all had notable hot spells in April and/or May) but this might be a statistical quirk as well.

Very good point there is your last one. I think that an early heatwave in spring increases the chances of a heatwave in early summer significantly because it indicates that telleconnections are playing ball. It certainly does not guarantee you a brilliant summer, but a good warm spell in May is often followed by a good warm spell in June in my opinion, both 2005 and 2006 being brilliant examples.

The same goes for winter, it is very unusual to have persistant warmth in November and a cold December.

One thing i watch out for in May is the 'Euro Monsoon', i actually think that a wet May can signal a hot summer as the Jet Stream moves north early.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The same goes for winter, it is very unusual to have persistant warmth in November and a cold December.

I'm having doubts about that one- 1963, 1978, 1981, 1995, 2001, 2009?

[Alex]

Not sure summer blizzard, 07 and 08 both had early warm spells, April 07 and may 08 were very good months but the summers were poor. In 2007 may was poor and we still had poor weather all summer? I'd like to know what happened in the lead Upto 1976 summer.

[Milhouse]

Not sure summer blizzard, 07 and 08 both had early warm spells, April 07 and may 08 were very good months but the summers were poor. In 2007 may was poor and we still had poor weather all summer? I'd like to know what happened in the lead Upto 1976 summer.

It was generally a dry spring which became progressively warmer (in relation to the average).

March CET 4.8C

April CET 8.1C

May CET 12.1C

Edited January 19, 2011 by Milhouse

[Alex]

Was there any spikes ie cold or warm spells during spring 76?

[Milhouse]

Was there any spikes ie cold or warm spells during spring 76?

You can see for yourself here http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Lakenheath_Royal_Air_Force_Base/05-1976/35833.htm

there are other locations too but only a few have archives going back that far.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm not as familiar with the build-up to the summer of 1976 as I am with the likes of 1955, 1975, 1990, 1995 etc, but I recall that May 1976 had a notable heatwave in the second week, especially affecting eastern and southern regions, but was a notably dull wet month in Scotland and northern England.

[Alex]

Just saw some figures and July 94 looks nice but I don't recall it being mentioned, think I vaguely remember it being hot as i was v young. Alot of 30c in there and most days over 25c.

[Thundery wintry showers]

July 1994 quite often gets mentioned in convection/storm-related threads as it had frequent southerly incursions which often collided with advancing Atlantic systems, giving rise to widespread thundery activity. There was a particularly prominent spell from 24 July to 3 August which had the UK under a persistent south to south-westerly flow sandwiched between high pressure to the NE and low pressure to the W and SW, and widespread thunderstorms occurred on most days. Earlier in the month it had often been hot, dry and sunny with a notable heatwave around the 12th, 33C locally, while even up in Tyne and Wear it got to 26-27C. There was also widespread thundery activity around the 4th and again to a lesser extent from the heatwave around the 12th.

There was a fair amount of regional variation though- some northern and western coastal areas were only a little warmer than average, and some of those same areas reported near or below average sunshine. Tyneside largely missed the thunderstorms except for a moderate one on 24 July and a couple of severe ones on 3 August. In contrast, in some individual locations in eastern England it was the second-warmest July of the last 100 years (with only 2006 being warmer), sunshine excesses reached 30-50% in some regions and there were 8 thunder-days at Norwich Weather Centre.

[Alex]

3rd warmest now TWS, I'm sure I read on the met website that July 2010 was 2nd warmest in 100 years in eastern England?

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think, like 1994, it was only the 2nd warmest over a limited area of eastern England (though it's possible that it could have superseded 1994 in at least some of the same areas that previously had 1994 as the second warmest).

Although I don't have long-term stats for Norwich, I suspect Norwich may have been one of those hotspots in July 2010- there was certainly a remarkable number of days with maxima in the 25-29C range here, while Tutiempo.net suggests that Norwich Weather Centre had a mean maximum of 'only' 24C in the Julys of 1994 and 1995. However, for example at Durham several recent Julys have been warmer.

[ZONE 51]

Could someone provide statistics for Surrey area ,of summer2010, we had weeks of hot sunshine and drought conditions, 2months of it was a great summer here!

Thanks when you have time!

[Milhouse]

Could someone provide statistics for Surrey area ,of summer2010, we had weeks of hot sunshine and drought conditions, 2months of it was a great summer here!

Thanks when you have time!

If you click on the link i posted in my last post you can select other locations. Charlwood is in Surrey isnt it? and thats on there.

Much of East Anglia, Lincolnshire and East Yorkshire had a well above average July last year and i think the closer you got to the coast the more above average the month was.

Bridlington on the Yorkshire coast had a mean of 21.7c for July 2010. Astonishing when you consider that August 1990, July 1994 August 1995 and July 1999 all failed to reach 20c. However when the east coast is well above average compared to the rest of the country it usually indicates a very breezy southwesterly month lacking in high pressure. Western areas end up being fairly cool and wet therefore the temperature stats for the country as a whole look fairly average.

Edited January 19, 2011 by Milhouse

[Alex]

Milhouse I wouldn't say there was a lack of high pressure across southeastern areas in July 10. The high temps were helped by clear skies on some days.

Milhouse I wouldn't say there was a lack of high pressure across southeastern areas in July 10. The high temps were helped by clear skies on some days.

Worth noting that where I live in Essex (Chelmsford) had an avg approaching 26c for July from my own records.

[Thundery wintry showers]

July 2010 had persistent high pressure to the SE and low pressure to the NW, so yes, high pressure often affected the SE. My main lasting memory of Summer 2010 is the phenomenal hot sunny spell in Norwich from 22 June to 4 July inclusive, during which only one day failed to reach or exceed 25C at Norwich Airport and quite a few of them got to 28 or 29C. Between the 5th and 24th, there were two more hot sunny spells (7th-11th, 18th-21st) interspersed with cloudier but average to fairly warm spells. The 25th-31st was persistently cloudy here- but still warm.

[reef]

If you click on the link i posted in my last post you can select other locations. Charlwood is in Surrey isnt it? and thats on there.

Much of East Anglia, Lincolnshire and East Yorkshire had a well above average July last year and i think the closer you got to the coast the more above average the month was.

Bridlington on the Yorkshire coast had a mean of 21.7c for July 2010. Astonishing when you consider that August 1990, July 1994 August 1995 and July 1999 all failed to reach 20c. However when the east coast is well above average compared to the rest of the country it usually indicates a very breezy southwesterly month lacking in high pressure. Western areas end up being fairly cool and wet therefore the temperature stats for the country as a whole look fairly average.

July 2010 was indeed a very good month here in regards to temperature (3rd warmest since at least 1982) and rainfall (2nd driest of the decade). The only letdown was sunshine, which was a tad below average at 86%.

Another good month of recent years was August 2009, that too was third warmest since at least 1982, only four days failed to reach 20C and it even beat 1995's mean temp by 0.2C. Sunshine and rainfall were close to average though.

[Milhouse]

Milhouse I wouldn't say there was a lack of high pressure across southeastern areas in July 10. The high temps were helped by clear skies on some days.

Milhouse I wouldn't say there was a lack of high pressure across southeastern areas in July 10. The high temps were helped by clear skies on some days.

Worth noting that where I live in Essex (Chelmsford) had an avg approaching 26c for July from my own records.

Yes i would agree that the SE was affected by high pressure for most of the month but we never got high pressure centred over the whole country which is how previous hot summers will be remembered. Last June however was slightly better in that respect.

The hottest days in July came from setups like this

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/2010/avn/Rtavn00120100709.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/2010/avn/Rtavn00120100719.png

Hot and humid for the SE but totally different for the NW. Lets just say for the past 4 summers i count my self very lucky i live where i do. The past 4 years have been total non-events for the west, except if you want it cool with above average rainfall.

[Alex]

2010 will be remembered as the summer that could of been, had august been hot and sunny there would have been major water shortages in the southeast. It could of been a contender for a top summer.

[conor123]

For here we were just on the wrong side of the split in July 2010, there was one instance on Saturday 10th where the cloud managed to break up somewhat but there wasn't one day all month that was particulary pleasant here, it was certainly up in the top 5 dullest July's on record.

http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Shawbury/07-2010/34140.htm

As you can see on the stats for Shawbury, only 5 days of the month didnt record precipitation, though bear in mind most of this was through drizzle from low cloud which for days on end never seemed to break up, gave a real sense of what a month of easterlies must be like on the east coast!

Met Office has 86hrs of sunshine as the official statistic for Shawbury for July, compare that with Lowestoft which had 226.6 it really shows how big a split it was.

It's quite rare for here to be one of the sunniest/warmest spots in the country though of course, though in setups like these it can be the case,

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/2006/avn/Rtavn00220060806.png

A high of 27.5c here that day, due to fohn effect.

[Summer of 95]

For here we were just on the wrong side of the split in July 2010, there was one instance on Saturday 10th where the cloud managed to break up somewhat but there wasn't one day all month that was particulary pleasant here, it was certainly up in the top 5 dullest July's on record.

http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Shawbury/07-2010/34140.htm

As you can see on the stats for Shawbury, only 5 days of the month didnt record precipitation, though bear in mind most of this was through drizzle from low cloud which for days on end never seemed to break up, gave a real sense of what a month of easterlies must be like on the east coast!

Having experienced both, I'd say July 2010 in Shrewsbury was as bad as late Nov/early Dec 2002 in Newcastle, in terms of sunshine as a percentage of what was possible. Like you say the weekend of 10th-11th was the only time there were any lengthy breaks, though even then I'd call the weather partly cloudy rather than sunny.

Met Office has 86hrs of sunshine as the official statistic for Shawbury for July, compare that with Lowestoft which had 226.6 it really shows how big a split it was.

It's quite rare for here to be one of the sunniest/warmest spots in the country though of course, though in setups like these it can be the case,

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/2006/avn/Rtavn00220060806.png

A high of 27.5c here that day, due to fohn effect.

It's funny here how the Welsh mountain rainshadow only seems to work properly in autumn and winter; we're quite often bright while west Wales is getting drenched then but in July and August we get all the cloud they do, just with slightly lighter rain.

[conor123]

Having experienced both, I'd say July 2010 in Shrewsbury was as bad as late Nov/early Dec 2002 in Newcastle, in terms of sunshine as a percentage of what was possible. Like you say the weekend of 10th-11th was the only time there were any lengthy breaks, though even then I'd call the weather partly cloudy rather than sunny.

It's funny here how the Welsh mountain rainshadow only seems to work properly in autumn and winter; we're quite often bright while west Wales is getting drenched then but in July and August we get all the cloud they do, just with slightly lighter rain.

I've noticed this aswell, there have been occasions in Autumn/Winter where theres been decent bright spells here whilst theres a very strong southwesterly flow bringing rain into Wales whilst in the summer cloud/rain seems to get across Wales in much weaker flows, though i guess i am biasing this on recent summers.

[abbaman]

I would like a mild summer and a mild spring and a near mild rest of winter summer reaching 30c max 15c min spring 15c max 10c min the rest of winter feb I want this don't mind light snow but gone by 6am 7c max 0c min thats what the summer and spring I want with Hp right over the whole of the uk in june july august. I know this is a big ask but that is my ideal spring and summer with the old thundery shower mixed in with that. But with lots of rain in late april to full up the resviors to keep the water toped up. But with my own Cfs workings we could end like that. But if we get a bad late nov early dec we will get a pretty good spring and summer as well.

I have a very rare copy of the bad winter in 1800.s but this is not 1891 but before then and it also gives the summer outlook for then and the spring and summer was mild but not hot but warm. Many of my pridecdtions that I asked some weather forcasters one I asked was old bbc weather forcasters and he gave me a 3 month reading from Feb - April and it looks like HP will be over us all of Feb but with middle hp in march and april. But with the his CFS forcast it as a mild feb and march with a 45% mild April and 55% showers in that month. I do have charts for that but not uploading as due to copyrights.

[Milhouse]

I would like a mild summer and a mild spring and a near mild rest of winter summer reaching 30c max 15c min spring 15c max 10c min the rest of winter feb I want this don't mind light snow but gone by 6am 7c max 0c min thats what the summer and spring I want with Hp right over the whole of the uk in june july august. I know this is a big ask but that is my ideal spring and summer with the old thundery shower mixed in with that. But with lots of rain in late april to full up the resviors to keep the water toped up. But with my own Cfs workings we could end like that. But if we get a bad late nov early dec we will get a pretty good spring and summer as well.

I have a very rare copy of the bad winter in 1800.s but this is not 1891 but before then and it also gives the summer outlook for then and the spring and summer was mild but not hot but warm. Many of my pridecdtions that I asked some weather forcasters one I asked was old bbc weather forcasters and he gave me a 3 month reading from Feb - April and it looks like HP will be over us all of Feb but with middle hp in march and april. But with the his CFS forcast it as a mild feb and march with a 45% mild April and 55% showers in that month. I do have charts for that but not uploading as due to copyrights.

So you are saying that the period February through to April will become gradually more unsettled with HP becoming less dominant. I tend to agree with you. I just have a hunch that late Spring will see a much longer spell of unsettled weather. If i knew when it would be i would time my annual leave at work not to coincide with it