Convective Weather Discussion UK

[Coast]

Well we all have our fingers crossed for a good storm season in 2011. Please use this thread to discuss forthcoming and current potential for the UK.

[Lewis]

I think the year 2011 will be a good year for thunderstorms.

But today, there is a small chance of some thunderstorms kicking about, with a higher risk for more central southern areas, the west Midlands in particular, with a slight chance for more Northern areas.

There is certainly some ML CAPE and Surface based CAPE about, with a neutral to negative Lifted Index.

Storms if any won't be too bad, but if your caught in a sharp shower/storm expect some torrential downpours, with some hail thrown in.

on the NMM model i just looked at the total convective precipitation amounts for the next 24 hours, it's a good indication of what areas are likely to see the precipitation.

Lewis

[Harry]

Indeed - Estofex indicating a slim chance across Southern UK today.

Could well be a spark or two for some

I have to say, the charts are adopting quite a positive pattern as we head towards the weekend and into early next week - indicating (AT THE MOMENT I hasten to add) depressions to the West with higher pressure to the East with a steady flow of SW and then southerly wind flow.

Edited March 29, 2011 by Harry

[Coast]

But today, there is a small chance of some thunderstorms kicking about, with a higher risk for more central southern areas, the west Midlands in particular, with a slight chance for more Northern areas.

As I said in the old thread, I think this is a remote chance today for the UK. Nice little spike of CAPE for France later, but nothing to wet myself about.

[Andy Bown]

Parts of Somerset have had around 20mm of rain this morning from slow moving showery rain moving North. Approx 40 miles to the East

here it's hazily sunny with plenty of Altocumulus and it's a very calm day too though not particularly warm at 9.8c.

I would expect that as the sun gets higher and the temperature rises to 12c/13c that small showers will begin to form away from the

main area of showery rain. These showers will probably be quite well scattered, so many places missing them, but where they do form

they will intensify quickly.

Hopefully more than anything there will be a good convective sky to admire through the afternoon!

[tomp456]

here in worthing which is approx 15 miles west of brighton we had some spits of rain about half hour ago. skies dont look that interesting right now. hopefully it'll warm up a bit later & the convection will get going.

I ask for 1 clap of thunder today, just one. Surely you can do that, mother nature?!

[Lewis]

Just too much low cloud/mist haze about, don't know what it's like for you guys down South.

But the way things look now, convection is going to be a premium, we need the sun to break through and burn off this cloud for convection to start, otherwise it's going to be a day of light rain/drizzle where precipitation occurs.

lewis

Edited March 29, 2011 by Warmer Weather

[Harry]

Just too much low cloud/mist haze about, don't know what it's like for you guys down South.

But the way things look now, convection is going to be a premium, we need the sun to break through and burn off this cloud for convection to start, otherwise it's going to be a day of light rain/drizzle where precipitation occurs.

lewis

Same here, Lewis, a lot of upper level cloud and haze. Disappointing after what was a stunning sun rise this morning.

Temperatures do not feel to have improved much either after what was a bit of a chilly start.

Might be fortunate enough to catch the odd flicker of lightning from the channel this evening, but otherwise I agree, pretty boring at the moment.

[tomp456]

ill second that, harry

[Stuart]

some places may see some at the weekend

[Harry]

Upper level haze and cloud starting to thin now with the skies turning ever increasingly brighter.

Temperatures slowly starting to respond now, though it is nearing 2 in the afternoon. So anything home grown is looking less and less likely. That said, MetO radar showing a tiny yet moderate/temporarily heavy shower moving northwards through Hants.

I am encouraged though by the risk across the channel in France. MetOffice Invent does show some lively downpours triggering off here this afternoon (some specs already starting to show on radar), coinciding with the relatively decent CAPE progged. I think coastal areas of Kent and Sussex may see some nice cloud formations and again, the possibility of a distant flash. With a NNE trajectory forecast though, it is very unlikely these will make landfall.

[Lewis]

Upper level haze and cloud starting to thin now with the skies turning ever increasingly brighter.

Temperatures slowly starting to respond now, though it is nearing 2 in the afternoon. So anything home grown is looking less and less likely. That said, MetO radar showing a tiny yet moderate/temporarily heavy shower moving northwards through Hants.

I am encouraged though by the risk across the channel in France. MetOffice Invent does show some lively downpours triggering off here this afternoon (some specs already starting to show on radar), coinciding with the relatively decent CAPE progged. I think coastal areas of Kent and Sussex may see some nice cloud formations and again, the possibility of a distant flash. With a NNE trajectory forecast though, it is very unlikely these will make landfall.

Sun breaking through and higher level cloud diminishing some what now.

My weather station is not in the sun, and it's recording 16.9c, i fear it's give up after a year may need another one, i have a WMR100N.

although..

The closest station about 2 miles away from me is recording 16.1c http://www.wundergro...nited%20Kingdom

so mine seems to be reading way to high.

some showers could spark off soon.

lewis

Edited March 29, 2011 by Warmer Weather

[Coast]

Interesting sounding for Brest at 12Z:

Just waiting for the Herstmonceux one to roll out now.

[A.J]

There's certainly a fair amount of CAPE available over the Brest Penninsular, and some lift which is triggering some hefty showers in that area...Just a question of whether they'll just hug the french coastline or start to drift across the channel.....As far as homegrowns go there's an area of showery rain over the SW midlands edging northwards (had a few drops here) and a moderate shower developing over Salisbury Plain. Worth keeping an eye on these areas for possible development over the next couple of hours, I guess?

[tomp456]

The sun keeps poking through the clouds here in Worthing. Is this a good thing?

or i suppose its a little too late for anything here along the S coast.

[Coast]

Worth keeping an eye on these areas for possible development over the next couple of hours, I guess?

Peak time (as much as as it is) is in the lead up to sunset I suspect looking at the relevant charts. Still waiting for the Herstmonceux sounding to firm up any small chance of something coming to this side of the Channel. Again I would exercise caution as this is still very early in the season and we have to remember how many times we have been watching storms over in France not making it to these shores.

The sun keeps poking through the clouds here in Worthing. Is this a good thing?

Not as good as it poking through over Eastbourne..... :lol:

[Thundery wintry showers]

Hazy sunshine in Norwich (still a lot of dust/pollution trapped within this airmass) and a bank of cloud to the south, which looks like altocumulus at the top but it's hazy near the base of the cloud. Radar shows showers moving up from the south- would be interesting to get some convective precipitation for a change- but it hasn't updated since 15:15 and it's still sunny outside at present, so I don't know if it's going to reach Norwich.

[tomp456]

Peak time (as much as as it is) is in the lead up to sunset I suspect looking at the relevant charts. Still waiting for the Herstmonceux sounding to firm up any small chance of something coming to this side of the Channel. Again I would exercise caution as this is still very early in the season and we have to remember how many times we have been watching storms over in France not making it to these shores.

Not as good as it poking through over Eastbourne..... :lol:

^^

URGHH. well that sucks.

Edited March 29, 2011 by tomp456

[Supacell]

May be some homegrowns across West Midlands, Wales and up into Northern England as I think was mentioned earlier (although I wouldn't expect anything too spectacular). Temps have shot up to 15C where I am (near Bradford) and the sun is poking through the haze.

Its good to be getting even a hint of storms as early as late March. I'm looking forward to this year and hoping its a hot, thundery summer.

[Coast]

May be some homegrowns across West Midlands, Wales and up into Northern England as I think was mentioned earlier (although I wouldn't expect anything too spectacular). Temps have shot up to 15C where I am (near Bradford) and the sun is poking through the haze.

Sounding isn't encouraging:

[johnholmes]

nor is the Camborne-both would just about support a shower but it needs some kind of trigger=upper trough, falling pressure etc

[Ben_Cambs]

There is currently a fairly heavy rain shower ongoing here, has been for the past 40 minutes or so.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The shower just to the south of Norwich has fizzled before it got here, but there's another one just to the south of it (a thin but intense line extending WNW-ESE and heading NNE-wards).

[Marcus_surfer]

A few heavy showers and thunderstorms crossing france at the moment, some lightning picked up on a few of the detectors close to Northern france, will probably die before they are close to S England.

[Coast]

Too far away I think:

Tracking 1 thunderstorms

-------------------------------------------------------

Thunderstorm ID F-624 detected 16:10

Storm location bearing 133.8 dgr distance 234 mi from IOW

Last recorded activity 16:58

Intensity class Weak

Intensity trend No change

Current strikerate 1/minute

Peak strikerate 3/minute

Total recorded strikes 33

Cloud-Ground strikes 6 - 18.18%

Intracloud strikes 27 - 81.82%

-- Strike type distribution --

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 1 - 3.03%

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 5 - 15.15%

Positive Intracloud [+IC] 20 - 60.61%

Negative Intracloud [-IC] 7 - 21.21%

-------------------------------------------------------