Convective Weather Discussion UK

[Stormyking]

hi all

just witnessed some mammatus cloud formation coming in off the solent in gopsort will post photos later.

Yeh I saw those too, they looked pretty impressive and has looked thundery all Afternoon

[Wilxy]

Looks an intresting weekend with some thunder potential, seems like i missed a bit of thunder this morning look at the radar, theres always next time.

[chapmanslade]

Heard nothing here in Warminster & only a dampened ground, how many flashes / rumbles were there?

Having scanned the NW radar the cell responsible is obvious and very fast moving when zoomed to BA12!

four or five in quick succession but virtually no rain. Squally wind for 5 minutes. Very high cloud base at the time typical of EML type summer storms !

I've already beaten the 2010 storm count (although I did endure a 12 hour storm in France during August last year)

[Costa Del Fal]

The Midlands looks a pretty good spot for a storm or two tomorrow afternoon however these look weak, non severe and unorganized in nature.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Plenty of storms across Ireland in the last few hours with parts of Dublin seemingly getting the best of it. Nothing here in Cork though unfortunately.

[Costa Del Fal]

Wouldn't be too sure about that. Showers and storms could well be focused around the upper air disturbance (trough) forecast to progress eastward through tomorrow afternoon, and combined with around 30-35knt deep layer shear, would certainly give rise to a favourable environment for storms to organise, provided updrafts are sufficiently buoyant. Moisture looks to be fairly modest and upper profiles saturated, but with maximum solar input beneath increasingly cold air aloft, the potential for a few sharp storms is there.

I Suppose so. Showers could definitely be organized. Perhaps i should have said any strong.larger storms etc will be unorganized.

[Costa Del Fal]

Not to be trusted but Birmingham is now down for a Thundery shower at around 1pm tomorrow on the Met Office. I would agree that i think this area has the best potential.

Edited April 2, 2011 by Blizzards

[LeeKay]

Ok, so between 13:00 - 18:00hrs the overall picture looks good!!

NW Storm risk starts the ball rolling from 0900 (mids) - storm or no storm, should be a photogenic day at the least

[Jane Louise]

It's looking good. Here's hoping once again that some of us who haven't had a storm for a long time will benefit tomorrow.

[Stuart]

It's looking good. Here's hoping once again that some of us who haven't had a storm for a long time will benefit tomorrow.

Good Luck Jane for tomorrow.

[Jane Louise]

Good Luck Jane for tomorrow.

Thanks Stu.

Here's the Estofex forecast for tomorrow just in case anyone hasn't seen it yet.

Having problems posting up map though.

Storm Forecast

Valid: Sun 03 Apr 2011 06:00 to Mon 04 Apr 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sat 02 Apr 2011 21:42

Forecaster: DAHL

A level 1 threat was issued across central France and north Spain mainly for marginally severe hail and marginally severe straight-line wind gusts.

... SYNOPSIS ...

A deep long-wave upper trough is present over the eastern Atlantic and western Europe. This feature will slowly close off into a cut-off cyclone on Sunday, resulting in an eastward leap of the remaining northern portions of the trough. The low-level baroclinic zone tied to this trough will stretch from western Iberia northward nearly along the continental-European west coast into Scandinavia. The air mass east of this baroclinic zone is weakly unstable and will be the focus for scattered thunderstorms on Sunday.

... DISCUSSION ...

... eastern Iberia ... France ... Germany ...

It seems that a narrow plume of weak instability may materialize directly ahead of and along the surface cold front. Deep-layer and low-level shear will be minimal along most portions of the front, except over France and Spain, where 20 to 25 m/s DLS are expected.

Instability should be strongest over France (albeit still weak, probably less than a few 100 J/kg), decreasing further to the northeast into Germany.

It seems that scattered thunderstorms will form during and after peak-heating hours, aided by DCVA-related ascent. Over France, there exists a potential for line segments and/or mesocyclones, capable of marginally severe hail/winds. Shear and instability, as well as coverage may be somewhat less over eastern Iberia, but an isolated severe thunderstorm still seems possible.

Farther east ... it seems that isolated showers, capable of sporadic lightning, might form well ahead of the cold front over the mountainous regions of the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria, and Hungary. It currently seems that the overall lightning probabilities will be too low to highlight these areas.

http://www.estofex.org/

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS 18z notches Cape Levels up a little higher locally tomorrow but minor or very little change really. Id say somewhere along a line from Gloucester to Birmingham and then upto the Humber has the best chance tomorrow.

What i often notice with the GFS is that when after the time period concerned has just finished and the next GFS Run comes out, if often raises the CAPE levels significantly. This is obvious in the first frame of the 18z for 6pm this evening. In reality CAPE/LI Levels can be quite a bit higher than what the GFS may suggest but not always of course.

[Static Prevails]

I think I'm in with a shout tomorrow. Good luck all!

[weatherobsuk]

Hoping for a thundery shower or two here today. Co-Inciding with my Birthday it'll make for a nice present from nature's finest.

[Mesoscale]

I think less of a chance for me tommorow but heres hopeing ay!!

[knocker]

GFS 18z notches Cape Levels up a little higher locally tomorrow but minor or very little change really. Id say somewhere along a line from Gloucester to Birmingham and then upto the Humber has the best chance tomorrow.

What i often notice with the GFS is that when after the time period concerned has just finished and the next GFS Run comes out, if often raises the CAPE levels significantly. This is obvious in the first frame of the 18z for 6pm this evening. In reality CAPE/LI Levels can be quite a bit higher than what the GFS may suggest but not always of course.

Perhaps they need to be today. Still seems likely that the main chance of thundery outbreaks will be the Midlands, Wales and the SW.

[Chris.R]

currently sunny with light rain falling. You know it's a convective day when that happends. Hearing the odd sferic to but quite far away though. I think there'll be some good convection kicking off when the sun gets higher.

[Nick F]

Have issued a storm forecast for today: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Good luck for anyone thinking of heading out and catching some cloudscapes, think it could be the first reasonable day of the year so far to take pictures of cbs.

Didn't get chance to do a forecast yesterday, but looked like quite a few strikes around early on yesterday for western areas of Wales and NW England, also SW Midlands up to Lincs from some elevated storms froming just head of eastward moving cold front. Also eastern side of Ireland saw some lively showers/storms in the afternoon as the upper trough moved in behind the cold front further east.

Doesn't look too much potential this coming week apart from the far N and NW, as high pressure builds up from the south.

[Coast]

Here's the Estofex forecast for tomorrow just in case anyone hasn't seen it yet.

Hmmmm interesting - everywhere but where I thought!!!! :lol:

OK, what have the others got for Mothers Day?

So, Wales and the Midlands rather than Scotland?

[Stuart]

just to far South for me to see anything

[Kain]

Just had quite a sharp shower here, didnt last long though

[Coast]

just to far South for me to see anything

and a little too far north and west for me!

[Static Prevails]

And perfect for me...

[NL]

Convection underway here in the North East with some pretty good cumulus building, wont be long before I see some Cb's around, even if I dont get any T & L the clouds should make way for some nice photogenic shots.

[Cheshire Gap]

Morning all!

I have a question...but I don't want to sound silly...hear me out.

Looking over the Cheshire Plaine, the is various amounts of convection going on, which is encouraging, however,

my question, why is there your normal white fluffy cloud with obviously grey bases (I take due to shading from the sun) growing nicely, then inbetween the, is some little, really dark ones...all over, to[p and bottom, even when the sun is on them....why such a difference in a relativly small space area of sky?

Thanks

CG